ESPN predicts Boston will have 28th ranked offense and 30th ranked defense

[BleedGreen1989]

ESPN Insider examined the top projected risers and fallers in scoring margin for the 2013-14 season and the Boston Celtics are the second biggest faller (-7 points; the Oklahoma City Thunder were a mere 0.1 points worse).


http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4706372/insider-cs-a-top-faller

[Chris]

I disagree about the defense.  A lot depends on who is healthy (and who they choose to play), but I think if they do actually TRY to put their best team out there, they should be somewhere in the middle of the pack defensively.  Yeah, they don't have a rim protector, which makes a difference.  But, they have a lot of good to excellent perimeter defenders (Bradley, Lee, Wallace, Rondo, Green), and they have some big men who are at the very least decent team defenders.  If Stevens is anywhere near what he is being sold as, this team should play decent...and probably aggressive defense. 

The offense could potentially be horrible though. 

[manl_lui]

what was our defensive rank last year? With the departure of KG, could it really drop us ALL the way down to 30?

[Boris Badenov]

I disagree about the defense.  A lot depends on who is healthy (and who they choose to play), but I think if they do actually TRY to put their best team out there, they should be somewhere in the middle of the pack defensively.  Yeah, they don't have a rim protector, which makes a difference.  But, they have a lot of good to excellent perimeter defenders (Bradley, Lee, Wallace, Rondo, Green), and they have some big men who are at the very least decent team defenders.  If Stevens is anywhere near what he is being sold as, this team should play decent...and probably aggressive defense. 

The offense could potentially be horrible though.

I keep forgetting about Wallace but I agree. Maybe we will be decent, at times anyway.

Sully had pretty good defensive numbers too, but I'm not sure how much of that was the KG effect.

But even so, Humphries/Wallace/Green/AB/Rondo is a potentially very good lineup, at least against the more perimeter-oriented clubs.

The issue is, I guess, would you ever want to play that lineup given its offensive limitations?

We also could be really schizophrenic. A lot of our players seem to be either very good at D and bad at O, or the reverse. Does Stevens mix and match for balance, or have a scoring lineup and a defensive lineup? Could be interesting.

[wdleehi]

Until a they get someone other teams respect or fear in the middle, I think the defense will be well below average.


The good perimeter defenders will not have the luxury of being overly aggressive (which leads to TO) because there will not be the guy behind them that erases the mistakes. 

[PhoSita]

Our D was very good last season, while our offense was well below average.  We were 6th in defensive efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.

My guess is our defensive efficiency will be closer to 20th this year, while our offensive efficiency will be below 25th.

[pearljammer10]

Espn never gave us respect even when we were good. No surprise to see them having us plummeted drastically here.

[bfrombleacher]

Our D was very good last season, while our offense was well below average.  We were 6th in defensive efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.

My guess is our defensive efficiency will be closer to 20th this year, while our offensive efficiency will be below 25th.

http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/9188921/2013-nba-playoffs-kevin-garnett-presence-big-difference-boston-celtics

Am I missing something here?

Without KG our D-rating was still a 104.6, still well above average (just under 106 last season) weirdly?

I was very surprised considering how bad the PnR defense was.

[PhoSita]

Our D was very good last season, while our offense was well below average.  We were 6th in defensive efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.

My guess is our defensive efficiency will be closer to 20th this year, while our offensive efficiency will be below 25th.

http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/9188921/2013-nba-playoffs-kevin-garnett-presence-big-difference-boston-celtics

Am I missing something here?

Without KG our D-rating was still a 104.6, still well above average (just under 106 last season) weirdly?

I was very surprised considering how bad the PnR defense was.

The team was able to defend reasonably well without KG for short stretches last year.  I don't expect it to work out that way this season without KG being around at all, let alone playing.

For me, it's as simple as looking at the big men we have.  Humphries, Bass, Sullinger, and Olynyk does not constitute the backbone of a reliable defensive unit.

[MBunge]

Our D was very good last season, while our offense was well below average.  We were 6th in defensive efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.

My guess is our defensive efficiency will be closer to 20th this year, while our offensive efficiency will be below 25th.

I think the defense could be worse than that, depending on how well any of our bigs play D.  But I think people are seriously underestimating the Celtics on offense.  It's not like Doc is still here running an offense that's built on forcing the ball into KG and Pierce in a static, slowdown, walk-it-up tempo.  Boston should play much faster and have a lot more motion in the half-court.  I'm not sure about their efficiency ranking but, with a healthy Rondo, this shouldn't be a team that struggles mightily to put the ball in the basket.

Mike

[jambr380]

Does it really get any worse than this? We should fully expect a superstar talent in the draft next year if ESPN is right...and I definitely don't think they are.

[Boris Badenov]

Our D was very good last season, while our offense was well below average.  We were 6th in defensive efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.

My guess is our defensive efficiency will be closer to 20th this year, while our offensive efficiency will be below 25th.

I think the defense could be worse than that, depending on how well any of our bigs play D.  But I think people are seriously underestimating the Celtics on offense.  It's not like Doc is still here running an offense that's built on forcing the ball into KG and Pierce in a static, slowdown, walk-it-up tempo.  Boston should play much faster and have a lot more motion in the half-court.  I'm not sure about their efficiency ranking but, with a healthy Rondo, this shouldn't be a team that struggles mightily to put the ball in the basket.

Mike

According to this article, Butler was 219th in tempo last year and was never in the top 200(!) during Stevens' tenure.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1713831-how-brad-stevens-butler-system-translates-to-the-boston-celtics

Stevens may implement some changes, but it's not like we hired Dave Arsenault.

[PhoSita]

Our D was very good last season, while our offense was well below average.  We were 6th in defensive efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.

My guess is our defensive efficiency will be closer to 20th this year, while our offensive efficiency will be below 25th.

I think the defense could be worse than that, depending on how well any of our bigs play D.  But I think people are seriously underestimating the Celtics on offense.  It's not like Doc is still here running an offense that's built on forcing the ball into KG and Pierce in a static, slowdown, walk-it-up tempo.  Boston should play much faster and have a lot more motion in the half-court.  I'm not sure about their efficiency ranking but, with a healthy Rondo, this shouldn't be a team that struggles mightily to put the ball in the basket.

Mike

According to this article, Butler was 219th in tempo last year and was never in the top 200(!) during Stevens' tenure.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1713831-how-brad-stevens-butler-system-translates-to-the-boston-celtics

Stevens may implement some changes, but it's not like we hired Dave Arsenault.

It's difficult to be a good offensive team when you don't have many good shooters.

We don't have any dead-eye shooters.  Lee and Green are good spot-up shooters, and Olynyk looks like he'll probably be a good pick and pop big.  Brooks and Crawford are streaky and inefficient.  Bass is mid-range only.  Rondo is Rondo.

[Boris Badenov]

Our D was very good last season, while our offense was well below average.  We were 6th in defensive efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.

My guess is our defensive efficiency will be closer to 20th this year, while our offensive efficiency will be below 25th.

I think the defense could be worse than that, depending on how well any of our bigs play D.  But I think people are seriously underestimating the Celtics on offense.  It's not like Doc is still here running an offense that's built on forcing the ball into KG and Pierce in a static, slowdown, walk-it-up tempo.  Boston should play much faster and have a lot more motion in the half-court.  I'm not sure about their efficiency ranking but, with a healthy Rondo, this shouldn't be a team that struggles mightily to put the ball in the basket.

Mike

According to this article, Butler was 219th in tempo last year and was never in the top 200(!) during Stevens' tenure.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1713831-how-brad-stevens-butler-system-translates-to-the-boston-celtics

Stevens may implement some changes, but it's not like we hired Dave Arsenault.

It's difficult to be a good offensive team when you don't have many good shooters.

We don't have any dead-eye shooters.  Lee and Green are good spot-up shooters, and Olynyk looks like he'll probably be a good pick and pop big.  Brooks and Crawford are streaky and inefficient.  Bass is mid-range only.  Rondo is Rondo.

Yup. And even there, Green and Lee are probably going to have a lot less space to shoot this year than they did last year...Green in particular will likely get a lot more attention from opposing defenses.

[PhoSita]

Our D was very good last season, while our offense was well below average.  We were 6th in defensive efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.

My guess is our defensive efficiency will be closer to 20th this year, while our offensive efficiency will be below 25th.

I think the defense could be worse than that, depending on how well any of our bigs play D.  But I think people are seriously underestimating the Celtics on offense.  It's not like Doc is still here running an offense that's built on forcing the ball into KG and Pierce in a static, slowdown, walk-it-up tempo.  Boston should play much faster and have a lot more motion in the half-court.  I'm not sure about their efficiency ranking but, with a healthy Rondo, this shouldn't be a team that struggles mightily to put the ball in the basket.

Mike

According to this article, Butler was 219th in tempo last year and was never in the top 200(!) during Stevens' tenure.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1713831-how-brad-stevens-butler-system-translates-to-the-boston-celtics

Stevens may implement some changes, but it's not like we hired Dave Arsenault.

It's difficult to be a good offensive team when you don't have many good shooters.

We don't have any dead-eye shooters.  Lee and Green are good spot-up shooters, and Olynyk looks like he'll probably be a good pick and pop big.  Brooks and Crawford are streaky and inefficient.  Bass is mid-range only.  Rondo is Rondo.

Yup. And even there, Green and Lee are probably going to have a lot less space to shoot this year than they did last year...Green in particular will likely get a lot more attention from opposing defenses.

Yeah.

The fact is we weren't a great outside shooting team last year, either, and we traded away our two best shooters for a package that features Keith Bogans as the best shooter of the bunch.

I expect this team to go through some pretty painful scoring droughts.