The Celtics Can Sign a Max Free Agent Next Summer

[Rondohara]

Great post Loose Cannon.

It would be great if we could get DeMarcus Cousins, even if that means sacrificing 2 firsts (and maybe even 2 seconds) and AB. We could make a "decent enough" sign and trade or just go through free agency after dumping some contract.
A core of Rondo - Green - Cousins is a very respectable, and  will very likely attract another Star in 2015 when Wallace could be dumped without much difficulty (plus we would still have plenty of resources with our hopefully more developed youngs and still 2 firsts left)

[manl_lui]

Great post Loose Cannon.

It would be great if we could get DeMarcus Cousins, even if that means sacrificing 2 firsts (and maybe even 2 seconds) and AB. We could make a "decent enough" sign and trade or just go through free agency after dumping some contract.
A core of Rondo - Green - Cousins is a very respectable, and  will very likely attract another Star in 2015 when Wallace could be dumped without much difficulty (plus we would still have plenty of resources with our hopefully more developed youngs and still 2 firsts left)

love it, but isn't Cousins an unrestricted FA? I think we will make an offer and so will other teams, but the Kings will match anyone...they will be stupid to not match, unless they want to get rid of him

[rondoallaturca]

Unrestricted Free Agents
Kobe Bryant
Dirk Nowitzki
Pau Gasol
Marcin Gortat
Danny Granger
Luol Deng
Andrew Bogut
Shawn Marion
Kyle Lowry
Ray Allen

Restricted Free Agents
Kyrie Irving
John Wall
Larry Sanders
Greg Monroe
DeMarcus Cousins
Paul George
Eric Bledsoe

Player Option
Tim Duncan
Zach Randolph
Rudy Gay
Andrei Kirilenko

Early Termination Option
Lebron James
Dwyane Wade
Chris Bosh
Amare Stoudemire
Carmelo Anthony

I've italicized the names that I think actually have a realistic chance of changing teams.

[LooseCannon]

Great post Loose Cannon.

It would be great if we could get DeMarcus Cousins, even if that means sacrificing 2 firsts (and maybe even 2 seconds) and AB. We could make a "decent enough" sign and trade or just go through free agency after dumping some contract.
A core of Rondo - Green - Cousins is a very respectable, and  will very likely attract another Star in 2015 when Wallace could be dumped without much difficulty (plus we would still have plenty of resources with our hopefully more developed youngs and still 2 firsts left)

love it, but isn't Cousins an unrestricted FA? I think we will make an offer and so will other teams, but the Kings will match anyone...they will be stupid to not match, unless they want to get rid of him

Any first-rounder from the draft class of 2010 who hasn't signed an extension will be a restricted free agent if his team tenders him a qualifying offer.

[chambers]

Great post. TP.

Biggest concern for me as to waiting for 2015 and not 2014 is Rondo's deal expiring. Waiting for all these guys to become FA's and things getting really bad between Rondo/Stephens/Front Office.

Hard to see guys like Gasol coming here unless Rondo is here.
Best bet for one of these trades now is getting a star to keep Rondo happy whilst praying that at least Green or Sully becomes an All Star.
It's been discussed and the consensus is that LaMarcus Aldridge would be the perfect example that the Celtics could go after. Not sure if they have enough to keep Green and Rondo and specifically get Aldridge but he's a disgruntled star who needs some co-star help.
 Perhaps if we don't bink a top 5 pick in 2014 they'll still have enough talent in guys like Sully,Olynyk,Bradley and their 6 first rounders over the next 3 years to make a move in an Aldridge/Kevin Garnett scenario.

Problem is Rondo only has 2 years on his deal & the free agent market isn't too hot until 2015/16 when Rondos deal is up.
Which dice do you roll?
A) build around Rondo and Green/Sullinger by adding an Aldridge type and hope that Rondo, Aldridge, Green are enough to attract a major FA in 2015. (very well could be).
B) give yourself the best shot at a top 3 pick next season and hope to pick/develop a real franchise guy? (just as long odds as example of getting BOTH Aldridge and another stud FA)
C) ask Rondo to help you tank/stick it out with the long term plan and have him sit out this year with injury worries, hoping to bink a 2014 top 5 pick while they wait for free agency in 2015.

Or Celtics fans could prey that Ainge can swing a miracle again like the KG/Allen trades and trade for Aldridge then sign Carmelo as an early termination free agent in 2014.

Rondo
Draft shooting guard
Green
Melo
Aldridge

Or trade Green in Aldridge deal, put Melo at 3 and Sullinger at 4 depending on if he turns out to be the lottery pick he once was in 2012.

We can dare to dream.

[celts10]

I still dont know why everyone loves Bradley..

Probably because he performed above everyone's expectations in 2012, but was then forced to play out of position at PG for pretty much the entire last season.

[PhoSita]

Unrestricted Free Agents
Kobe Bryant
Dirk Nowitzki
Pau Gasol
Marcin Gortat
Danny Granger
Luol Deng
Andrew Bogut
Shawn Marion
Kyle Lowry
Ray Allen

Restricted Free Agents
Kyrie Irving
John Wall
Larry Sanders
Greg Monroe
DeMarcus Cousins
Paul George
Eric Bledsoe

Player Option
Tim Duncan
Zach Randolph
Rudy Gay
Andrei Kirilenko

Early Termination Option
Lebron James
Dwyane Wade
Chris Bosh
Amare Stoudemire
Carmelo Anthony

I've italicized the names that I think actually have a realistic chance of changing teams.

I don't see any names it would make sense to give a max contract unless we get a franchise talent in the 2014 draft.

[rondoallaturca]

I don't see any names it would make sense to give a max contract unless we get a franchise talent in the 2014 draft.

I agree with this. Fortunately, it's not all a lost cause, as there are a lot of centers coming on the market, and that is unquestionably our biggest area of need right now. Plus, we'd be ready to accept salary in trades should the opportunity arise.

[staticcc]

(Also posted as a FanPost on the main blog)

In 2013,2014, the maximum salary is $13,701,250 for a player with six or fewer years in the NBA, $16,441,500 for a player with 7 to 9 years, and $19,181,750 for a player with 10 or more years.  Let's assume that the NBA sees a growth in revenue so that those amounts are close enough to $14, $17, and $20 million so that we can use those as easy estimates.

Assuming there are no roster changes, the Celtics have guaranteed money for Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, Gerald Wallace, Brandon Bass, Courtney Lee, and Kelly Olynyk in the overall amount of 45,931,160.  If they exercise their team options on Jared Sullinger(no-brainer), MarShon Brooks(likely), Fab Melo(less likely but I think probable), that's another 4,971,514 for a total of $50,902,674 committed to 9 players.  Keith Bogans, Victor Faverani and Phil Pressey will have unguaranteed contracts.  Jordan Crawford and Avery Bradley will be restricted free agents if they are tendered a qualifying offer.

If the Celtics don't have 12 players, a roster charge of $507,336 will be counted against the cap to bring them up to a combination of 12 players or roster charges.

The Celtics will have cap holds for their 2014 first-round picks.  In 2013-2014, the rookie scale first-year salary will be $4,436,900 for the first pick, $2,910,600 for the 5th pick, $1,930,600 for the 10th pick, $1,493,800 for the 15th pick, $1,174,200 for the 20th pick, and $957,500 for the 25th pick.

There are several scenarios for how the Celtics can sign a max free agent next season.

SCENARIO ONE - KEEP AVERY BRADLEY

Tony Allen signed a four-year, $20 million dollar contract with the Grizzlies.  It would be fair to estimate that Avery Bradley could be re-signed for a contract that begins at $4-5 million.  Let's say that Bradley plays well enough that Ainge wants to lock him down for a contract starting at $4.5m.

If the Celtics were to salary dump Brandon Bass, Courtney Lee, and Fab Melo to a team with cap space, also sending out their lesser 2014 first-round pick and another pick (something significantly less than the two firsts, three second, and cash that Utah got for taking on the higher-paid and more worthless Andris Biedrins and Richard Jefferson this summer) and getting back a scrub on an unguaranteed contract, the Celtics would have 41,685,034 committed to 7 players, plus a cap hold for a draft pick, and roster charges for three  more players.  (Actually roster charges for four, but signing a big free agent would reduce the roster charges by one.)  If the Celtics end up with the 8th pick, they would have a cap hold of $2,210,900 and the Celtics would have $45,417,942 in salary if they renounced all free agents and waived all unguaranteed contracts.  If the salary cap rose from $58.679 million this season to $60 million in 2014-2015, the Celtics would be able to offer a free agent a contract beginning at approximately $14.6 million, or more than the max salary for a 0-6 year player.

This means that the Celtics could theoretically give a max-contract offer sheet to some of those young centers who are likely to be restricted free agents in 2014: DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe, and (my personal choice) Larry Sanders.  Sanders is especially attractive to me because, looking at the history of the Bucks and how they are dealing with Brandon Jennings, they may be reluctant to match and could be willing to work out a sign-and-trade (see below).

The Celtics have even more room to maneuver if they can sign Bradley for less or have a lower draft pick with a smaller cap hold.  That could allow the team to hold on to players with unguaranteed contracts, such as Faverani or Pressey.

SCENARIO TWO - RENOUNCE AVERY BRADLEY

While I love Rondo-Bradley as the starting backcourt, the Celtics don't have to keep Bradley.  Ainge can renounce Bradley, removing his cap hold.  This would mean the Celtics can now offer a starting salary of around $18.6 million to a free agent or make it easier to keep Faverani and/or Pressey.  I don't think Carmelo Anthony is opting out so he can sign for that much with the Celtics, but if that's your fantasy, it's possible to make the money work out.

SCENARIO THREE - SIGN AND TRADE

The Celtics could threaten to clear cap space as incentive for another team to work out a sign-and-trade deal.  This would be good for the Celtics because they can use the full MLE and (if Ainge works fast) the trade exception from the Pierce/Garnett deal to improve the team.

If the Celtics make a trade while over the cap and do not end up as a tax-paying team after the trade, they have to send out $9.27 million in salary to acquire a $14 million max-contract guy, $12 million for someone who will make $17 million, and  $15.92 million for someone who is set to make $20 million.

A trade of the expiring contract of Brandon Bass and the unguaranteed contract of Keith Bogans provides enough trade ballast to do a deal for a $14 million or $17 million guy.  You would have to add $3.735 million to do a deal.  That could be Courtney Lee.  That could be including Jordan Crawford in a sign-and-trade.  That could be MarShon Brooks, Fab Melo, and Phil Pressey.  In an ideal world, maybe another team is willing to take Gerald Wallace and Bogans as the salary-matching contracts.

SCENARIO FOUR - JUST PLAIN TRADE

Some people believe that the free agent class of 2014 isn't that strong, since Carmelo, Lebron, D-Wade, and Bosh seem unlikely to opt out and test the waters.  The Celtics can offer cap relief in the form of expiring and unguaranteed contracts, some young players on rookie scale contracts, and draft picks if an All-Star caliber player (like LaMarcus Aldridge) is being shopped around.

That doesn't fit the title of signing a max free agent, but I am throwing it out there.  It would make sense for Ainge to throw some assets at a star on an expiring contract in the hopes that he can convince the player to re-sign with Boston.

CONCLUSION

It's not at all certain that a big free agent will be willing to come to Boston, but if there is one who wants to be a Celtic, Danny Ainge can make it happen and he might be able to do it without touching the Rondo/Bradley/Green/Sullinger/Olynyk core.  That group plus a max-contract player worth his salary and a solid 2014 draft pick could be the foundation for a contender.

Scenario 1 and 2 will not work. Scenario 1 (Demarcus Cousins or Paul George) will not work because they are Restricted Free Agents and their teams will match their contracts. Scenario 2 will not work because even if we can offer Melo or Lebron or Wade or Bosh 19.1M , the max they can get is 105% of their previous salaries. That is around 20.5M for the Miami 3 and 23M for Melo. Another team can offer more than us. Scenario 3 and 4 are the only possible scenarios I can see and teams will be reluctant to trade their stars for other assets (teams are now choosing to have salary cap space instead) especially if our assets are Courtney Lee, Brandon Bass and 1st round picks that may be in the late 20s because the Nets will be good..

[Rondohara]

It's theoretically possible to get a "max" FA (preferably a young one) and  that's enough to at least let us dream a not impossible dream .
About the restricted ones, it's possible if he wants out and even easier if the team view him as a troublemaker (as Cousins) and maybe could facilitate the deal for some picks. Making a direct trade for someone who isn't a FA is also possible.

[Moranis]

So if I get the gist of this post it is to say the obvious, i.e. Boston has no cap space for anything more than a MLE type player without using first round picks or other assets to move bad long contracts.  Like anyone on here didn't know this.  The people, like me, that say we don't have cap space say it because we don't have cap space unless we can move contracts.  That isn't cap space.  Every team in the league can have cap space to sign a max contract if they move enough contracts to create it.

Nothing to see here.

[LooseCannon]

So if I get the gist of this post it is to say the obvious, i.e. Boston has no cap space for anything more than a MLE type player without using first round picks or other assets to move bad long contracts.  Like anyone on here didn't know this.  The people, like me, that say we don't have cap space say it because we don't have cap space unless we can move contracts.  That isn't cap space.  Every team in the league can have cap space to sign a max contract if they move enough contracts to create it.

Nothing to see here.

The Celtics have contracts that are easy to move and spare assets which can be used to move those contracts.  The Celtics can keep their core intact while moving those contracts.

Not every team can move those contracts.  The Celtics couldn't do it this summer.  Teams like the Knicks, Clippers, and Thunder won't be able to do it.  The Celtics will be able to do it next summer because they aren't bogged down by having a ton of money tied up in just a few players and their payroll isn't wrecked by the bad contracts.  Gerald Wallace may have a bad contract, but it's not a cap killer that keeps the team from improving through free agency if anything is available.

[Mazingerz]

My best bet is they offer Rondo a new contract next season for 15Mn - 16Mn per season for 4 seasons first.

[Moranis]

So if I get the gist of this post it is to say the obvious, i.e. Boston has no cap space for anything more than a MLE type player without using first round picks or other assets to move bad long contracts.  Like anyone on here didn't know this.  The people, like me, that say we don't have cap space say it because we don't have cap space unless we can move contracts.  That isn't cap space.  Every team in the league can have cap space to sign a max contract if they move enough contracts to create it.

Nothing to see here.

The Celtics have contracts that are easy to move and spare assets which can be used to move those contracts.  The Celtics can keep their core intact while moving those contracts.

Not every team can move those contracts.  The Celtics couldn't do it this summer.  Teams like the Knicks, Clippers, and Thunder won't be able to do it.  The Celtics will be able to do it next summer because they aren't bogged down by having a ton of money tied up in just a few players and their payroll isn't wrecked by the bad contracts.  Gerald Wallace may have a bad contract, but it's not a cap killer that keeps the team from improving through free agency if anything is available.

They don't have contracts that are easy to move or they would have been moved already.  And you don't just go moving all of these first round draft picks to create cap space.  It is a waste of assets.  Now sure if someone agrees to come here a sign and trade makes some sense where you give up some first rounders (and some filler like contracts), but you don't need cap space for that (you just have to be below the luxury tax line).

[LooseCannon]

So if I get the gist of this post it is to say the obvious, i.e. Boston has no cap space for anything more than a MLE type player without using first round picks or other assets to move bad long contracts.  Like anyone on here didn't know this.  The people, like me, that say we don't have cap space say it because we don't have cap space unless we can move contracts.  That isn't cap space.  Every team in the league can have cap space to sign a max contract if they move enough contracts to create it.

Nothing to see here.

The Celtics have contracts that are easy to move and spare assets which can be used to move those contracts.  The Celtics can keep their core intact while moving those contracts.

Not every team can move those contracts.  The Celtics couldn't do it this summer.  Teams like the Knicks, Clippers, and Thunder won't be able to do it.  The Celtics will be able to do it next summer because they aren't bogged down by having a ton of money tied up in just a few players and their payroll isn't wrecked by the bad contracts.  Gerald Wallace may have a bad contract, but it's not a cap killer that keeps the team from improving through free agency if anything is available.

They don't have contracts that are easy to move or they would have been moved already.  And you don't just go moving all of these first round draft picks to create cap space.  It is a waste of assets.  Now sure if someone agrees to come here a sign and trade makes some sense where you give up some first rounders (and some filler like contracts), but you don't need cap space for that (you just have to be below the luxury tax line).

Other teams don't always agree to facilitate a sign-and-trade.  Sometimes, being able to threaten to sign a free agent outright is what induces another team to agree to a S&T.  You'd probably have to send over at least a couple of firsts if you agreed to a S&T anyways, so it doesn't matter how you burn them.