The Celtics Can Sign a Max Free Agent Next Summer

[The One]

Loose Cannon...you just killed it!

Boom!!

[Yogi]

To be fair, Raymond Felton AKA Anton Barrels plays power forward during the off season.  He was the consensus number two pick behind Kevin Durant.  I think the fact that Bradley limited him so much is a credit to Bradley's defense. 

[nickagneta]

Good post but there's one problem. The best free agents, as you mentioned, may not ETO or opt out of their current contracts which makes next year's free agent crop one of the poorest, from the Celtics point of view, in some time. Here's the best options in next year's free agency player list:

Paul Pierce - not coming back to Boston except to retire
Andrei Kirilenko - not leaving his Russian owner's side anytime soon
Luol Deng - not necessary with Jeff Green under contract
Dirk Nowitzki - not leaving Dallas
Greg Monroe - restricted
Paul George - restricted and expecting to sign an extension
Danny Granger - see Luol Deng
Kobe Bryant - forget it
Pau Gasol - maybe
Larry Sanders - restricted
DeMarcus Cousins - restricted
John Wall - restricted

So about the only unrestricted guy that might fit and be affordable and come here, Pau Gasol, will be 34 next year. Other than that, what else is there? The massive head case that is Demarcus Cousins and Larry Sanders, a very limited big man that showed he can protect a rim, rebound well and very little else and has done that for exactly one out of his first three seasons?

Maybe waiting another year and planning to strike hard in 2015 off season makes more sense. Or just looking to cash in the young assets and first rounders in trades for star players. If Memphis gets blown up next year I would shoot for Marc Gasol and if Golden State feels they don't want to keep both Iguodala and Thompson maybe go hard after Klay Thompson.

Don't know how the trades would work out but

Rondo
Thompson/Bradley
Green
Sully/Olynyk
Gasol

seems like a great team core to try to contend for a title with.

[Prof. Clutch]

(Also posted as a FanPost on the main blog)

In 2013,2014, the maximum salary is $13,701,250 for a player with six or fewer years in the NBA, $16,441,500 for a player with 7 to 9 years, and $19,181,750 for a player with 10 or more years.  Let's assume that the NBA sees a growth in revenue so that those amounts are close enough to $14, $17, and $20 million so that we can use those as easy estimates.

Assuming there are no roster changes, the Celtics have guaranteed money for Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, Gerald Wallace, Brandon Bass, Courtney Lee, and Kelly Olynyk in the overall amount of 45,931,160.  If they exercise their team options on Jared Sullinger(no-brainer), MarShon Brooks(likely), Fab Melo(less likely but I think probable), that's another 4,971,514 for a total of $50,902,674 committed to 9 players.  Keith Bogans, Victor Faverani and Phil Pressey will have unguaranteed contracts.  Jordan Crawford and Avery Bradley will be restricted free agents if they are tendered a qualifying offer.

If the Celtics don't have 12 players, a roster charge of $507,336 will be counted against the cap to bring them up to a combination of 12 players or roster charges.

The Celtics will have cap holds for their 2014 first-round picks.  In 2013-2014, the rookie scale first-year salary will be $4,436,900 for the first pick, $2,910,600 for the 5th pick, $1,930,600 for the 10th pick, $1,493,800 for the 15th pick, $1,174,200 for the 20th pick, and $957,500 for the 25th pick.

There are several scenarios for how the Celtics can sign a max free agent next season.

SCENARIO ONE - KEEP AVERY BRADLEY

Tony Allen signed a four-year, $20 million dollar contract with the Grizzlies.  It would be fair to estimate that Avery Bradley could be re-signed for a contract that begins at $4-5 million.  Let's say that Bradley plays well enough that Ainge wants to lock him down for a contract starting at $4.5m.

If the Celtics were to salary dump Brandon Bass, Courtney Lee, and Fab Melo to a team with cap space, also sending out their lesser 2014 first-round pick and another pick (something significantly less than the two firsts, three second, and cash that Utah got for taking on the higher-paid and more worthless Andris Biedrins and Richard Jefferson this summer) and getting back a scrub on an unguaranteed contract, the Celtics would have 41,685,034 committed to 7 players, plus a cap hold for a draft pick, and roster charges for three  more players.  (Actually roster charges for four, but signing a big free agent would reduce the roster charges by one.)  If the Celtics end up with the 8th pick, they would have a cap hold of $2,210,900 and the Celtics would have $45,417,942 in salary if they renounced all free agents and waived all unguaranteed contracts.  If the salary cap rose from $58.679 million this season to $60 million in 2014-2015, the Celtics would be able to offer a free agent a contract beginning at approximately $14.6 million, or more than the max salary for a 0-6 year player.

This means that the Celtics could theoretically give a max-contract offer sheet to some of those young centers who are likely to be restricted free agents in 2014: DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe, and (my personal choice) Larry Sanders.  Sanders is especially attractive to me because, looking at the history of the Bucks and how they are dealing with Brandon Jennings, they may be reluctant to match and could be willing to work out a sign-and-trade (see below).

The Celtics have even more room to maneuver if they can sign Bradley for less or have a lower draft pick with a smaller cap hold.  That could allow the team to hold on to players with unguaranteed contracts, such as Faverani or Pressey.

SCENARIO TWO - RENOUNCE AVERY BRADLEY

While I love Rondo-Bradley as the starting backcourt, the Celtics don't have to keep Bradley.  Ainge can renounce Bradley, removing his cap hold.  This would mean the Celtics can now offer a starting salary of around $18.6 million to a free agent or make it easier to keep Faverani and/or Pressey.  I don't think Carmelo Anthony is opting out so he can sign for that much with the Celtics, but if that's your fantasy, it's possible to make the money work out.

SCENARIO THREE - SIGN AND TRADE

The Celtics could threaten to clear cap space as incentive for another team to work out a sign-and-trade deal.  This would be good for the Celtics because they can use the full MLE and (if Ainge works fast) the trade exception from the Pierce/Garnett deal to improve the team.

If the Celtics make a trade while over the cap and do not end up as a tax-paying team after the trade, they have to send out $9.27 million in salary to acquire a $14 million max-contract guy, $12 million for someone who will make $17 million, and  $15.92 million for someone who is set to make $20 million.

A trade of the expiring contract of Brandon Bass and the unguaranteed contract of Keith Bogans provides enough trade ballast to do a deal for a $14 million or $17 million guy.  You would have to add $3.735 million to do a deal.  That could be Courtney Lee.  That could be including Jordan Crawford in a sign-and-trade.  That could be MarShon Brooks, Fab Melo, and Phil Pressey.  In an ideal world, maybe another team is willing to take Gerald Wallace and Bogans as the salary-matching contracts.

SCENARIO FOUR - JUST PLAIN TRADE

Some people believe that the free agent class of 2014 isn't that strong, since Carmelo, Lebron, D-Wade, and Bosh seem unlikely to opt out and test the waters.  The Celtics can offer cap relief in the form of expiring and unguaranteed contracts, some young players on rookie scale contracts, and draft picks if an All-Star caliber player (like LaMarcus Aldridge) is being shopped around.

That doesn't fit the title of signing a max free agent, but I am throwing it out there.  It would make sense for Ainge to throw some assets at a star on an expiring contract in the hopes that he can convince the player to re-sign with Boston.

CONCLUSION

It's not at all certain that a big free agent will be willing to come to Boston, but if there is one who wants to be a Celtic, Danny Ainge can make it happen and he might be able to do it without touching the Rondo/Bradley/Green/Sullinger/Olynyk core.  That group plus a max-contract player worth his salary and a solid 2014 draft pick could be the foundation for a contender.

Logged in from work just to give you a TP for this write-up.  Great job.


I think Rondo's really gonna have to show us and the league something this year if we have any shot of attracting a star free agent next year.  Boston is a tough place to convince people to come play, Rondo is our main selling point. Let's hope he shows us why he's the guy to make banner 18 happen.

[LooseCannon]

Nice post, LC. TP.

How does the trade exception fit into all of this? Would we be able to use it in at least some of the first three scenarios?

You would have to renounce the trade exception to use cap space.  If you can get the other team to agree to a sign-and-trade, then the Celtics would still have the opportunity to use the trade exception, in addition to having the full MLE instead of the smaller "room" exception to work with.

[kozlodoev]

I still dont know why everyone loves Bradley..

because he's a good basketball player.  play's elite defense. a trait that will keep him in the league for 12 years.    and is 22 years old.   why don't you like him?   because he can't shoot?  beat it.  bradley's legit and if you don't see it,  you don't know anything about basketball.

"Can't shoot"? Andre Miller can't shoot. Bruce Bowen can't shoot. Bradley has proceeded to regress to a complete embarrassment and a serious team liability last year: can't shoot, can't pass, can't dribble, can't finish a layup, can't take good decisions with the ball. Oh, and he's 2 inches short for his position, to boot.

How's that for a laundry list of reasons why I don't like him?

[droopdog7]

Sorry, but I think the odds of signing (or even having the ability) to sign a max free agent is farfetched to say the least.  We're talking about dumping Lee and Bass on teams with cap space as if a team would be willing to pay their salaries (of 11 million or so) just for a mid to late first round pick and change. 

And I'm sorry, but trading for a max free agent, which any team can do at any time regardless of their cap situation, is not the same as signing a max free agent outright.

[D.o.s.]

I LOVED Bradley's Defense....UNTIL I saw Fatboy Raymond Felton Blow by him about 99 times during the Playoffs....What was up with that---?

To me it was a combination of the following
1. Bradley's game being effected by his poor play on offense
2. A lack of help defense (the Knicks often ran a pick and roll and no one besides the defender of the roll man would be in the paint)
3. Felton being stronger than Bradley (Bradley often recovered after being beaten but didn't do so until felton got in the paint, at this point felton just powered through him for the bucket)
4. Bradley being hurt.

Agreed. If you've ever even played playground/park level hoops, you know how much of a pain it is to guard a guy who's got +/-30 pounds and  on you.

[LooseCannon]

Sorry, but I think the odds of signing (or even having the ability) to sign a max free agent is farfetched to say the least.  We're talking about dumping Lee and Bass on teams with cap space as if a team would be willing to pay their salaries (of 11 million or so) just for a mid to late first round pick and change. 

I'm suggesting that it would be easy to dump them for one pick each, and the Celtics have plenty of excess picks.  That's approximately the going rate for past salary dumps.

[LooseCannon]

Bradley has proceeded to regress to a complete embarrassment and a serious team liability last year: can't shoot, can't pass, can't dribble, can't finish a layup, can't take good decisions with the ball. Oh, and he's 2 inches short for his position, to boot.

One area where Bradley did not regress is that his shooting percentage on two-point shots 16 feet or longer rose to 44.5%.  It reasonable to believe that his three-point percentage will rebound.  He's not going to be a primary ball-handler.  He's not going to be an iso-ball scorer off the dribble.  He could be a perfectly acceptable catch-and-shoot guy who moves well without the ball.  I think he's fine so long as you don't force him to function as the point guard on offense.

[Jon]

I still dont know why everyone loves Bradley..

And I would add that since his break out year at the end of the 2011-2012 campaign, he hasn't had a chance to really work on his game.  He missed the entire offseason last season with his shoulder issues and then basically walked back on the court and tried to pick up where he left off. 

Certainly, he wasn't everything we wanted last year, but he was still an elite defender and he's still only 22 (he would have graduated this year if he stayed in college).  I think we should at least see what he can do this year with more touches and with a whole summer to work on his game. 

[kozlodoev]

Bradley has proceeded to regress to a complete embarrassment and a serious team liability last year: can't shoot, can't pass, can't dribble, can't finish a layup, can't take good decisions with the ball. Oh, and he's 2 inches short for his position, to boot.

One area where Bradley did not regress is that his shooting percentage on two-point shots 16 feet or longer rose to 44.5%.  It reasonable to believe that his three-point percentage will rebound.  He's not going to be a primary ball-handler.  He's not going to be an iso-ball scorer off the dribble.  He could be a perfectly acceptable catch-and-shoot guy who moves well without the ball.  I think he's fine so long as you don't force him to function as the point guard on offense.

Yeah, it "rose" -- mostly because he was shooting a god-awful .390 from that range the previous year. He did, however, regress in all other listed aspects.

Also, I won't exactly hang my hat on the fact that one element of a statistical split rose from horrid to average. After all, Rajon Rondo shot .500 from the same range last season.

[dreamgreen]

Bradley has proceeded to regress to a complete embarrassment and a serious team liability last year: can't shoot, can't pass, can't dribble, can't finish a layup, can't take good decisions with the ball. Oh, and he's 2 inches short for his position, to boot.

One area where Bradley did not regress is that his shooting percentage on two-point shots 16 feet or longer rose to 44.5%.  It reasonable to believe that his three-point percentage will rebound.  He's not going to be a primary ball-handler.  He's not going to be an iso-ball scorer off the dribble.  He could be a perfectly acceptable catch-and-shoot guy who moves well without the ball.  I think he's fine so long as you don't force him to function as the point guard on offense.

Yeah, it "rose" -- mostly because he was shooting a god-awful .390 from that range the previous year. He did, however, regress in all other listed aspects.

Also, I won't exactly hang my hat on the fact that one element of a statistical split rose from horrid to average. After all, Rajon Rondo shot .500 from the same range last season.

I'm not hating on Ab as much as you, but I agree with all your points, don't back down!

[dreamgreen]

To be fair, Raymond Felton AKA Anton Barrels plays power forward during the off season.  He was the consensus number two pick behind Kevin Durant.  I think the fact that Bradley limited him so much is a credit to Bradley's defense.

I have to be honest here, I don't recall him limiting him at all, I do recall Felton (whom IMO is not that good) getting layup after layup.

[hwangjini_1]

first, thanks to loose cannon for a great thread. lots and lots of work involved and it is appreciated....tp of course.

further along, nickagneta raises a great point - basically, the 2014 free agents are a pretty abysmal crew. slim pickings indeed. would ainge want to sink a load of money into anyone of that group? or...might he wait a year to go after a free agent?

what if the celtics are NOT intent upon making a free agent splash in 2014, but instead have set their sights on 2015?

by then the hump is history and wallace has a good chance to be gone since he would be an expiring contract by then. hoopsworld has the celtics team salary for 2015-16 at $32,400,00+. (assuming wallace is gone. also rondo and bradley are not included.)

http://www.hoopsworld.com/boston-celtics-team-salary

with a base of $32,000,000ish plus a few million more for draft picks. the celtics would have a lot more room to resign rondo and/or bradley AND still have space for a free agent signing. he also may open up more trade opportunities. no?

that is, the celtics, it seems, may have a lot more salary space in 2015 than 2014.

who all is the free agent class of 2015? maybe ainge is looking one year further ahead.