Are we just about guaranteed a top 10 pick?

[Chris]

Not even close.  This team has way too much talent right now to tank.  There are a lot of questions too, but there is a strong possibility this team could be pretty decent.

-If Rondo is healthy
-If Green picks up where he left off
-If Wallace goes back to the player he was before last season.
-If Humphries goes back to the player he was before last season
-If Sully is healthy and continues progressing
-If Bradley is healthy and continues progressing
-If Oly can give them something decent
-If Lee can settle in like he did the last few games before Rondo got hurt
-If they can build chemistry, and Stevens can get them playing as a cohesive unit

As long as the first "if" is true, then getting a top 10 pick might be tough.  If some combination of rest of them are true, as well as the first one, this team could actually compete for a playoff spot.

In other words, if they really want to tank, they have a lot more work to do...and Rondo can't play a lot of games.

[rondohondo]

I think a 35-47 record sounds about right for the celtics.  Last season that would have been the 13th worst record in the NBA.

You've gotta remember that this team cannot rebound. We just traded away KG and pierce who combined for 14 of our team's 39 rpg.  We will be replacing KG's minutes with some combination of Olynyk, Sullinger, and Bass and Pierce's minutes with Jeff Green and Gerald Wallace.  We were a bad rebounding team last year and theoretically we should get worse.

not sure I agree with the rebounding. Sully is a beast rebounder, and Kris Humpheries is also very good, maybe better than KG at this point  . KO is an average rebounder and Bass too. Having Rondo back will also help with rebounds.

Plus we are finally see this team go after offensive rebounds instead of just running back on defense like Doc had them do.

[Fafnir]

I think a 35-47 record sounds about right for the celtics.  Last season that would have been the 13th worst record in the NBA.

You've gotta remember that this team cannot rebound. We just traded away KG and pierce who combined for 14 of our team's 39 rpg.  We will be replacing KG's minutes with some combination of Olynyk, Sullinger, and Bass and Pierce's minutes with Jeff Green and Gerald Wallace.  We were a bad rebounding team last year and theoretically we should get worse.

not sure I agree with the rebounding. Sully is a beast rebounder, and Kris Humpheries is also very good, maybe better than KG at this point  . KO is an average rebounder and Bass too. Having Rondo back will also help with rebounds.

Plus we are finally see this team go after offensive rebounds instead of just running back on defense like Doc had them do.

Bass is a sub-par rebounder for a PF. League average for all PFs is around 13.6 RR, Bass clocks in at an 11-12 range.

I do think there is an excellent chance we stay even or slightly  on the boards if Sullinger can play the whole season and play starter minutes (instead of getting in foul trouble constantly)

[AB_Celtic]

I was always under the assumption that DA told RR that the best thing for this team in the long run was for him to take his time coming back. I know that Rondo is a fierce competitor, and I give him credit for that, but if he wants to be contending at all during his prime, he'll help us jumpstart the rebuild by waiting until at least the all-star break.

Some people are under the assumption that he'll be back very soon. I guess I just never thought that way.

[bfrombleacher]

I love how "No" is the most popular answer.

Because the lottery is a lottery, silly! We aren't even guaranteed to miss the playoffs.

A lot of teams are looking good on paper and you know what it is. Nothing ever happens as planned, almost.

[BleedGreen1989]

I'm not even sure we'll be in the lottery.

This.

The Bucks made the playoffs with a below .500 record and fell out of the lottery. The bottom of the East is really that bad and nobody in that range greatly improved to imagine them leapfrogging to the top-8 (maybe Cleveland if Bynum can be Bynum).

[Chris]

I was always under the assumption that DA told RR that the best thing for this team in the long run was for him to take his time coming back. I know that Rondo is a fierce competitor, and I give him credit for that, but if he wants to be contending at all during his prime, he'll help us jumpstart the rebuild by waiting until at least the all-star break.

Some people are under the assumption that he'll be back very soon. I guess I just never thought that way.

We are under that assumption because DANNY said he is currently on target for the start of the season.

Now, that could change, and perhaps Danny just said that to help sell tickets.  But I think there is a lot of evidence that Danny is focussing much more on developing and accumulating assets than tanking...which to me suggests he might be looking to try to do a fast reload.

Of course, that fast reload might be targeted at next summer, after they use a 2014 lottery pick.  But I think it could also happen this year. 

[Birdman]

As of right now, we be in top 5..NBA and Stern will make sure we dont get top 3  ...I know he is retiring but he will have an input on the draft..
Orlando
Charlotte
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Boston
Toronto
Sacramento
Theres my top 7 team..i say Celtics be at 5

[action781]

As of right now, we be in top 5..NBA and Stern will make sure we dont get top 3  ...I know he is retiring but he will have an input on the draft..
Orlando
Charlotte
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Boston
Toronto
Sacramento
Theres my top 7 team..i say Celtics be at 5

I wish I had your kind of insight!

Utah?
Milwaukee?

[action781]

I think a 35-47 record sounds about right for the celtics.  Last season that would have been the 13th worst record in the NBA.

You've gotta remember that this team cannot rebound. We just traded away KG and pierce who combined for 14 of our team's 39 rpg.  We will be replacing KG's minutes with some combination of Olynyk, Sullinger, and Bass and Pierce's minutes with Jeff Green and Gerald Wallace.  We were a bad rebounding team last year and theoretically we should get worse.

not sure I agree with the rebounding. Sully is a beast rebounder, and Kris Humpheries is also very good, maybe better than KG at this point  . KO is an average rebounder and Bass too. Having Rondo back will also help with rebounds.

Plus we are finally see this team go after offensive rebounds instead of just running back on defense like Doc had them do.

Bass is a sub-par rebounder for a PF. League average for all PFs is around 13.6 RR, Bass clocks in at an 11-12 range.

I do think there is an excellent chance we stay even or slightly  on the boards if Sullinger can play the whole season and play starter minutes (instead of getting in foul trouble constantly)

I did forget about Humphries who is a good rebounder, thanks for that catch rondohondo.

I don't know if I see Sullinger playing starter minutes.  We just have so many PFs (Sullinger, KO, Bass, Humphries, and maybe even a little of Wallace).  Regardless of who plays what minutes where, we are going to be playing some of all of them (especially KO I'd expect) and some of them out of position at center.

As for the o-boards, rondohondo, you are correct there as well.  I did think about that too.  While I did specifically mention rebounding, I mentioned it in relation to our team being bad.  If we crash the o-boards harder, I expect we give up more transition baskets.  So I don't necessarily think more rebounds makes us better, I was just pointing out that we have a lot of weak rebounders on our team.  Specifically, we have 2 good rebounding PFs and 1 good (injured) rebounding PG on our team and that's about it.

[Chris]

As of right now, we be in top 5..NBA and Stern will make sure we dont get top 3  ...I know he is retiring but he will have an input on the draft..
Orlando
Charlotte
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Boston
Toronto
Sacramento
Theres my top 7 team..i say Celtics be at 5

I wish I had your kind of insight!

Utah?
Milwaukee?

Yeah, Utah will likely be terrible.  Milwaukee probably will too, although they are tougher to pin down, because their owner wants to win, and they still have some work to do.

I also am not convinced New Orleans is going to win many games.  I don't think they have any more talent than Boston, and their talent is all VERY unproven.

The Lakers are also in the mix to tank.  They still have Kobe, Nash, and Pau, but Kobe is coming back from a bad injury, and who knows how much Nash and Pau will play.  I think they could easily tank big time.

Detroit, despite having young talent, are still a huge questionmark to be a good team if they don't make another move.  They still don't have any real PGs on their roster.

Dallas could end up being pretty terrible.  They have Dirk, which will make a big difference, but otherwise, their roster is not all that compelling.

Cleveland could either be a real playoff contender, or right back at the top of the lottery, depending on how well Bynum's knee pans out, and whether Irving can stay on the floor. 

And then there are a handful more teams that are an injury away from tanking. 

[PhoSita]

It still boggles my mind that people expect a team with Jeff Green as its #1 scorer, and no starting-quality centers on the roster, to even come close to making the playoffs.

[chambers]

As of right now, we be in top 5..NBA and Stern will make sure we dont get top 3  ...I know he is retiring but he will have an input on the draft..
Orlando
Charlotte
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Boston
Toronto
Sacramento
Theres my top 7 team..i say Celtics be at 5

I pretty much agree with this. It really depends on Wallace and Humphries though. If they are kept, and we play them normal minutes as starters then they'll win us an extra 5-6 games and get us over the 30 win mark.

If we move one of them then the damage is far less, and I'd say Humphries has far more appeal as a rebounder and an expiring deal for a contender. I mean wouldn't the Lakers love having him for Artests 8 million as a 6th man like Bass was for us? Tax doesn't seem to be an issue for them.


If we do move Hump and Wallace then I can't see us winning more than 25 games. Bottom 8 or worse. Main reasoning is how terrible our defense will be.
As it stands we will be one of the worst 3 teams at paint protection and points scored against us in the paint will be atrocious. I mean Sully and Olynyk will be able to score 25-30 a night but they'll just get PUNISHED on the other end and we can bring in Melo, the other Brazillian or Bass (if he's still here).

As usual people aren't paying attention to defensive efficiency and how horrid we'll be at protecting the basket. Rondo and Bradley and Green are a fantastic tandem to stop dribble penetration and even guarding the three- but against any team with an elite 7 footer and a few shooters/wing dribble-drive scorers like Rudy Gay we'll get punished by our basket protection.

Sully and Olynyk will foul out or get into early foul trouble so often, leaving Melo and his Brazillian comrade to go down swinging.

No Humphries and no wallace= bottom 5 aka toilet bowlers, stinksville, chumpmania, land of the bums and toothless parrots. We'll suck so bad but it will be fun to watch them develop because it's only one year and the outcome is either a top 12 pick or a top 5 pick.
Personally I'm hoping for a 5 pick that occurs via natural selection by getting rid of Hump and Wallace and letting our rookies and youngins play their hearts out.
I mean you could say if Rondo had a breakout season with Hump and Wallace playing we'd win maybe 35 games? But Rondo coming off an ACL tear isn't having a breakout season and he ain't carrying us through a losing regular season to anything near the playoffs.
Our big man defense and lack of shooting and scoring in general is just pathetic.

[BudweiserCeltic]

It still boggles my mind that people expect a team with Jeff Green as its #1 scorer, and no starting-quality centers on the roster, to even come close to making the playoffs.

Because this won't be an half-court offense type of team. And it should have a very strong team defense predicated on strong perimeter defense and good rebounding.

Also, there's some roster consolidation that still needs to occur. Also, our bench currently very underrated.

[PhoSita]

It still boggles my mind that people expect a team with Jeff Green as its #1 scorer, and no starting-quality centers on the roster, to even come close to making the playoffs.

Because this won't be an half-court offense type of team. And it should have a very strong team defense predicated on strong perimeter defense and good rebounding.

Also, there's some roster consolidation that still needs to occur. Also, our bench currently very underrated.

So how many teams that relied primarily on getting out on the break in order to score made the playoffs last year?

Denver?

I also think it will be an enormous struggle for this team to even be average defensively.  Teams in the NBA are as good defensively as their best defensive big man, and we don't really have one.  Humphries? Sullinger?  Iverson?  Faverani?  Take your pick.