Are we just about guaranteed a top 10 pick?

[PhoSita]

I don't like treating the PF and C spots as fungible.

I don't, either, if we're concerned about having the most competitive team possible.

But again, I view this as a player development year, so that means playing the guys who are most deserving of minutes at whatever position they can credibly play. 

In other words, if the only way Olynyk gets to play 20+ minutes a night is if he plays center a bunch, I'm perfectly fine with doing that.

[PhoSita]

I disagree about this.  Teams can win a lot of games playing a ball-hawking type defense, particularly if their big man can cover the pick and roll (which Sully is good at, Bass is decent, and Oly has the potential to be very good at).

Let's test this idea, based on last season.

Here's a list of the top 19 teams in defensive efficiency last season (19 was a significant cut-off point):

1 - Indiana (Hibbert)
2 - Memphis (Gasol)
3 - San Antonio (Duncan/Splitter)
4 - OKC (Collison / Ibaka / Perkins)
5 - Chicago (Noah)
6 - Boston (Garnett)
7 - Miami (Haslem / Bosh)
8 - Washington (Okafor / Nene)
9 - LAC (Jordan)
10 - Atlanta (Horford / Smith)
11 - Denver (Koufos / McGee / Faried)
12 - Milwaukee (Sanders / Udoh / Henson)
13 - Golden State (Fezeli / Bogut)
14 - Minnesota (Pekovic / Kirilenko / Stiemsma)
15 - Philadelphia (Allen / Hawes / Brown)
16 - Houston (Asik)
17 - New York (Chandler)
18 - Brooklyn (Lopez / Evans)
19 - LAL (Howard / Gasol)

I think the best possible support(s) for your argument would be Golden State or Philadelphia, and even then I'd question if the Celtics have the personnel to be on that level.  Those teams were decidedly in the "mediocre to average" category.

Exactly, and they also have an abundance of offensive weapons. Look at their average points per game. They will outgun you and don't need to rely on defending. We won't have that offensive firepower. I'm not sure how people don't understand this. Our offense sucks just as much as our defense- but the worst two parts of our game will be interior/paint protection and shooting from 5-20 feet.

I don't know if Philly really had much more firepower last season than we're bound to have this season, but they were also a pretty awful team last year.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

I'm going to suggest we might be understating, or even disregarding the potential contribution from mid range/long distance a combo of say... Green, Bass, and Olynyk could bring as a front court. Green can shoot the 3, he hasn't been no.1 option for it so far in his career but he can shoot the 3, Bass is still in the NBA probably because of his mid range jumper, and its clear that with the right mismatches Olynyk can light it up from distance. We may not be the best perimeter shooting roster, but the cupboard ain't bare.

[blink]

I think we are going to be pretty bad early in the year.  No KG / PP, new coaches, new system, roster turnover, no Rondo and no Sully at the start.  You have to rely on AB / Pressey as a main point guard unless other trades are made.

I say we get about 10-12 wins the 1st half of the season and progressively get better as the year goes along with Rondo / Sully getting back.  By the end of the season, we might not be terrible.  I can't see the current lineup winning more than 30-35 games.  Problem is the east is so bad that winning 35 would have put you in contention for the last spot last year.

I say we are just out of top ten, but still a lotto team.  10-14 somewhere.

[LooseCannon]

I don't like treating the PF and C spots as fungible.

I don't, either, if we're concerned about having the most competitive team possible.

But again, I view this as a player development year, so that means playing the guys who are most deserving of minutes at whatever position they can credibly play. 

In other words, if the only way Olynyk gets to play 20+ minutes a night is if he plays center a bunch, I'm perfectly fine with doing that.

I think playing young players as centers if they do not project to be centers could be harmful to their development.  I think that trying to force Avery Bradley to play out of position as a point guard in his rookie season held back his development.

If I projected Olynyk as a sixth man PF/C type, I'd want to play him primarily at one position first, if possible, so he's not being forced to learn too many things at once.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I think we are going to be pretty bad early in the year.  No KG / PP, new coaches, new system, roster turnover, no Rondo and no Sully at the start.  You have to rely on AB / Pressey as a main point guard unless other trades are made.

I say we get about 10-12 wins the 1st half of the season and progressively get better as the year goes along with Rondo / Sully getting back.  By the end of the season, we might not be terrible.  I can't see the current lineup winning more than 30-35 games.  Problem is the east is so bad that winning 35 would have put you in contention for the last spot last year.

I say we are just out of top ten, but still a lotto team.  10-14 somewhere.

Is that a fact?

[PhoSita]

I don't like treating the PF and C spots as fungible.

I don't, either, if we're concerned about having the most competitive team possible.

But again, I view this as a player development year, so that means playing the guys who are most deserving of minutes at whatever position they can credibly play. 

In other words, if the only way Olynyk gets to play 20+ minutes a night is if he plays center a bunch, I'm perfectly fine with doing that.

I think playing young players as centers if they do not project to be centers could be harmful to their development.  I think that trying to force Avery Bradley to play out of position as a point guard in his rookie season held back his development.

If I projected Olynyk as a sixth man PF/C type, I'd want to play him primarily at one position first, if possible, so he's not being forced to learn too many things at once.

Generally I agree with what you're saying, but I think if the choice is between Kelly playing 10-15 minutes a night exclusively at PF this season or playing 25-30+ minutes a night at PF and at C, I'd take more minutes every time.

It's always better for young players to get to play more minutes, unless they're just hopelessly lost out there (e.g. if we played Fab significant minutes right away).

[Chris]

I don't like treating the PF and C spots as fungible.

I don't, either, if we're concerned about having the most competitive team possible.

But again, I view this as a player development year, so that means playing the guys who are most deserving of minutes at whatever position they can credibly play. 

In other words, if the only way Olynyk gets to play 20+ minutes a night is if he plays center a bunch, I'm perfectly fine with doing that.

I think playing young players as centers if they do not project to be centers could be harmful to their development.  I think that trying to force Avery Bradley to play out of position as a point guard in his rookie season held back his development.

If I projected Olynyk as a sixth man PF/C type, I'd want to play him primarily at one position first, if possible, so he's not being forced to learn too many things at once.

Eh, I don't think the comparison is the same with PF/C as it is with SG/PG.  In todays NBA PF and center are often interchangable.  It is basically the same position, and it really just depends on who you match up with on defense. 

SG and PG on the other hand are dramatically different offensively, which is why it can be a much bigger difference. 

[PhoSita]

I don't like treating the PF and C spots as fungible.

I don't, either, if we're concerned about having the most competitive team possible.

But again, I view this as a player development year, so that means playing the guys who are most deserving of minutes at whatever position they can credibly play. 

In other words, if the only way Olynyk gets to play 20+ minutes a night is if he plays center a bunch, I'm perfectly fine with doing that.

I think playing young players as centers if they do not project to be centers could be harmful to their development.  I think that trying to force Avery Bradley to play out of position as a point guard in his rookie season held back his development.

If I projected Olynyk as a sixth man PF/C type, I'd want to play him primarily at one position first, if possible, so he's not being forced to learn too many things at once.

Eh, I don't think the comparison is the same with PF/C as it is with SG/PG.  In todays NBA PF and center are often interchangable.  It is basically the same position, and it really just depends on who you match up with on defense. 

SG and PG on the other hand are dramatically different offensively, which is why it can be a much bigger difference.

SG / SF are also pretty interchangeable.

Point guard is the one position I think it is detrimental to try to get a young guy to play at if he's just not suited for that position at all.

[aporel#18]

I think we are going to be pretty bad early in the year.  No KG / PP, new coaches, new system, roster turnover, no Rondo and no Sully at the start.  You have to rely on AB / Pressey as a main point guard unless other trades are made.

I say we get about 10-12 wins the 1st half of the season and progressively get better as the year goes along with Rondo / Sully getting back.  By the end of the season, we might not be terrible.  I can't see the current lineup winning more than 30-35 games.  Problem is the east is so bad that winning 35 would have put you in contention for the last spot last year.

I say we are just out of top ten, but still a lotto team.  10-14 somewhere.

TP, I think Rondo and/or Sully will be on the team to start the season, but they'll need to get back into game shape, so it will work in a similar fashion.

I disagree in your prediction, though. I think they'll lose a lot at the start of the season and they might play .500 ball in the last month, but that's if Danny keeps the current roster. I can see Ainge trading Bass, Humphries and Crawful for cap relief, future second rounders and maybe a TPE. Our young kids are talented, but they're rookies (Kelly) or semi-rookies (Sully), they need to learn how it's done in the NBA.

My prediction: top 6-10 pick, 28-20 wins

[blink]

I think we are going to be pretty bad early in the year.  No KG / PP, new coaches, new system, roster turnover, no Rondo and no Sully at the start.  You have to rely on AB / Pressey as a main point guard unless other trades are made.

I say we get about 10-12 wins the 1st half of the season and progressively get better as the year goes along with Rondo / Sully getting back.  By the end of the season, we might not be terrible.  I can't see the current lineup winning more than 30-35 games.  Problem is the east is so bad that winning 35 would have put you in contention for the last spot last year.

I say we are just out of top ten, but still a lotto team.  10-14 somewhere.

Is that a fact?

absolutely not a fact, just a guess.  I don't think anyone knows at this point.  I just doubt both of them are ready to start the season 100%.  That better?

[BudweiserCeltic]

I think we are going to be pretty bad early in the year.  No KG / PP, new coaches, new system, roster turnover, no Rondo and no Sully at the start.  You have to rely on AB / Pressey as a main point guard unless other trades are made.

I say we get about 10-12 wins the 1st half of the season and progressively get better as the year goes along with Rondo / Sully getting back.  By the end of the season, we might not be terrible.  I can't see the current lineup winning more than 30-35 games.  Problem is the east is so bad that winning 35 would have put you in contention for the last spot last year.

I say we are just out of top ten, but still a lotto team.  10-14 somewhere.

Is that a fact?

absolutely not a fact, just a guess.  I don't think anyone knows at this point.  I just doubt both of them are ready to start the season 100%.  That better?

From what we know, and looking analyzing histories of same or similar injuries/surgeries, they both should be ready to start the season or near it.

[Fred Roberts]

Certainly, no guarantees of anything.

But, if Ainge and Stevens know what's good for them, they'll find out what they have in the current roster and build up every player's value as much as possible. Kinda like when Gerald averaged 10 PPG prior to that KG trade.

If they do that, we'll be losing enough to secure a top pick. We really need top 5. Let's do this!!!

[Rondohara]

We could probably finish anywhere from 6th to 14th east, with the extremes being very difficult to happen, but based purely on viewing the player talent (and considering the injuries we know of), we should be more likely between 8th and 10th, which won't get us such a great pick. But we do have some resources to move up a little.
The level of the roster would have to decrease much more (IE. main pieces injured) to get to the deep lottery (to finally get a top pick that could be just the next Bargnani or Oden type. sigh)

[LooseCannon]

But, if Ainge and Stevens know what's good for them, they'll find out what they have in the current roster and build up every player's value as much as possible. Kinda like when Gerald averaged 10 PPG prior to that KG trade.

There's only a limited number of minutes.  How do you go about building up the value of Brooks, Crawford, Lee, and Bogans simultaneously when you have Avery Bradley starting ahead of them?