Yes, another pro tanking thread. Lets look at recent NBA history for some facts.

[Vox_Populi]

Good free agents won't pick Boston.  You need to trade for them.  You need top 5 picks to do that. 

Kevin Love is Danny's plan A. 

KO
Love
Green
Bradley
Rondo

That team could win a championship.

A stretch frontcourt with below average to poor defense? Awesome.

[esel1000]

Strictly speaking, according to this thread Jeff Green is the best bet to lead us to a championship because he was our No.5 pick.

This draft is said to be as good as the 2003 Draft.

The #5 overall pick of the 2003 draft was Dwayne Wade.

But he wasn't the fifth best player in that draft. He was the second. That's not a comparative indication of depth.

This. You have no way of knowing how good a players gonna be until they play an NBA game. The rest is hype. The 2012 draft was considered strong and the #5 pick was Thomas Robinson. 3 teams later we still don't know if he's worth it. Juries out on MKG. Oh and let's not forget Darko was still the 2nd pick in that 2003 draft.

A lot of players get a lot of hype and bust. I believe Wiggins is going to be really good but who knows.  Reasons such as this are why tanking is risky. What if you a tank a season and don't get a game changing player? It's no guarantee.

[steve]

Good free agents won't pick Boston.  You need to trade for them.  You need top 5 picks to do that. 

Kevin Love is Danny's plan A. 

KO
Love
Green
Bradley
Rondo

That team could win a championship.

Thankss for the laugh.

What's funny about it?

[EDWARDO]

I would say that in the case of Dirk, Kobe and KG it is 100% safe to say if they had done 1-2 years of college, they would EASILY have been the #1/2 overall picks and that the world has changed greatly since they were drafted. KG and Kobe were the FIRST PLAYERS IN 20 YEARS TO COME RIGHT OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL!    Where would they have been drafted after their freshman years?  No brainer top 1-2 picks.

Coming out of HS in 1995/96 was seen as far too risky for people to make them high picks, but people know now that its smart to draft HS kids because the best ones adjust quickly. And Dirk coming from Europe was a relative unknown. If any of these guys had done 1-2 years at Kansas, UNC, Duke, wherever, they were sure fire #1/2 overall picks.

You are much less likely to pick off that kind of talent at #5, #10 and #14 again. Why? Because the US kids HAVE to go to college and because the foreign guys are so well scouted now and a great player is not going to be overlooked like that again.

If you take that into account, then you can go back over virtually every NBA champion over the past 25 years and see either one of those 3 guys, MJ or a #1 overall pick on the team. You need a SUPER DUPER star to win in the NBA. There was a small window where you could luck into one of those guys at 10 or 14 (great work by Don Nelson and Jerry West). That's unlikely to ever happen again.

Further, you would see that in the last 30 years, there's been ONE team to win a title without a player who was/would have been picked in the top 3.  Most titles are won by #1 picks or guys that WOULD have been #1 picks if in college for one more year.

So:


1. You win with superstars and those superstars come from top picks.
2. You know who those superstars are going to be at a very early age.
3. You can add a million Monta Ellises (is the plural of Ellis "Ellii"?) and Sam Dalemberts and Amare Stoudemires to your team and you won't win a thing.
4. The Celtics are putting themselves in position to grab one of these players.
5. NOW, its true that getting a number one pick IN NO WAY guarantees you a shot at the title. A year where Anthony Bennett is the number one pick is a prime example.

6. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, sometimes, there is a year with MANY potential superduper stars at the top of the draft, and all indications are that this coming year is one of them.

The logic is straightforward and it is sound. The path isn't guaranteed, but the last time we went down this path, we thought the worst had happened and we ended up contending for SEVEN years and would have won multiple titles if not for KGs knee injury.

The only thing that IS guaranteed is that by pursuing the likes of Ellis, Dalembert and Stoudemire, you are relegating your team to life in NBA purgatory for years to come, with no hope at all.

[LilRip]

The logic is straightforward and it is sound. The path isn't guaranteed, but the last time we went down this path, we thought the worst had happened and we ended up contending for SEVEN years and would have won multiple titles if not for KGs knee injury.

The only thing that IS guaranteed is that by pursuing the likes of Ellis, Dalembert and Stoudemire, you are relegating your team to life in NBA purgatory for years to come, with no hope at all.

and furthermore, what's interesting is, once you become a contender, the Dalemberts of this world will possibly sign with the team for the mid-level because they want to win. It's easy to fill in role players, but it almost never works to fill in the shoes of a superstar with multiple role players.

[EDWARDO]

The logic is straightforward and it is sound. The path isn't guaranteed, but the last time we went down this path, we thought the worst had happened and we ended up contending for SEVEN years and would have won multiple titles if not for KGs knee injury.

The only thing that IS guaranteed is that by pursuing the likes of Ellis, Dalembert and Stoudemire, you are relegating your team to life in NBA purgatory for years to come, with no hope at all.

and furthermore, what's interesting is, once you become a contender, the Dalemberts of this world will possibly sign with the team for the mid-level because they want to win. It's easy to fill in role players, but it almost never works to fill in the shoes of a superstar with multiple role players.

Stop making sense, LilRip!

TP.

[Celtics18]

6. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, sometimes, there is a year with MANY potential superduper stars at the top of the draft, and all indications are that this coming year is one of them.

The most superduper stars I've ever seen in one draft is four (that's if you count Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony as superduper stars) in the legendary 2003 draft.

People are getting carried away and predicting that there are upwards of six or seven franchise type talents in the 2014 draft.  With all due respect to these  high school kids, I think that's incredibly unlikely.

To do the "tank job" right, we would have to be one of the three worst teams in the league.  I don't think we have the "talent" for that. 

[Boris Badenov]

6. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, sometimes, there is a year with MANY potential superduper stars at the top of the draft, and all indications are that this coming year is one of them.

The most superduper stars I've ever seen in one draft is four (that's if you count Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony as superduper stars) in the legendary 2003 draft.

People are getting carried away and predicting that there are upwards of six or seven franchise type talents in the 2014 draft.  With all due respect to these  high school kids, I think that's incredibly unlikely.

To do the "tank job" right, we would have to be one of the three worst teams in the league.  I don't think we have the "talent" for that.

We might not have to be quite that bad. We could have Michael Jordan and Joe Dumars drafting ahead of us.

[LilRip]

6. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, sometimes, there is a year with MANY potential superduper stars at the top of the draft, and all indications are that this coming year is one of them.

The most superduper stars I've ever seen in one draft is four (that's if you count Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony as superduper stars) in the legendary 2003 draft.

People are getting carried away and predicting that there are upwards of six or seven franchise type talents in the 2014 draft.  With all due respect to these  high school kids, I think that's incredibly unlikely.

To do the "tank job" right, we would have to be one of the three worst teams in the league.  I don't think we have the "talent" for that.

We might not have to be quite that bad. We could have Michael Jordan and Joe Dumars drafting ahead of us.

lol TP

[lightspeed5]

6. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, sometimes, there is a year with MANY potential superduper stars at the top of the draft, and all indications are that this coming year is one of them.

The most superduper stars I've ever seen in one draft is four (that's if you count Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony as superduper stars) in the legendary 2003 draft.

People are getting carried away and predicting that there are upwards of six or seven franchise type talents in the 2014 draft.  With all due respect to these  high school kids, I think that's incredibly unlikely.

all scouts are saying this is going to be a very good starfilled draft

ust the fact that both parker and wiggins are both going to be in it is insane.

[Celtics18]

6. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, sometimes, there is a year with MANY potential superduper stars at the top of the draft, and all indications are that this coming year is one of them.

The most superduper stars I've ever seen in one draft is four (that's if you count Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony as superduper stars) in the legendary 2003 draft.

People are getting carried away and predicting that there are upwards of six or seven franchise type talents in the 2014 draft.  With all due respect to these  high school kids, I think that's incredibly unlikely.

all scouts are saying this is going to be a very good starfilled draft

ust the fact that both parker and wiggins are both going to be in it is insane.

Six or seven franchise level superstars, though?  Twice as many as in the 2003 draft?  I'll believe that when I see it. 

[Celtics4ever]

You know we had good stars last time when we sucked.   We got PP , Joe Johnson and Billups through the draft.   Pitino gave two of these away though.   I think if DA has some picks up there he will manage them better.    He may trade them as he did with Jeff Green but he got value.   I don't think it takes as long because Pitino was such a horrible GM.

[vjcsmoke]

  ...and after we lost the lottery all of the people who were calling for the Celts to tank were crucifying Danny and Doc for tanking and calling for their heads for getting the team into the position it was in.

Until Ainge traded for Ray Allen and then for KG.  You see, whether or not you land the #1 overall pick, a high lotto pick is always an ASSET that can be moved if need be for another player that will help your team.

[lightspeed5]

6. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, sometimes, there is a year with MANY potential superduper stars at the top of the draft, and all indications are that this coming year is one of them.

The most superduper stars I've ever seen in one draft is four (that's if you count Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony as superduper stars) in the legendary 2003 draft.

People are getting carried away and predicting that there are upwards of six or seven franchise type talents in the 2014 draft.  With all due respect to these  high school kids, I think that's incredibly unlikely.

To do the "tank job" right, we would have to be one of the three worst teams in the league.  I don't think we have the "talent" for that.

just because you never seen it happen doesnt mean it cant. all signs are pointing to really good. 2 superstars and 6-7 stars in the upcoming draft is good. to say otherwise is to ignore reality.

[merkins]

If we ended up with a pick in the 6-8 range I'd take Marcus Smart, then deal Rondo.  I saw Smart play a couple times this past year and he's a great scoring and playmaking ability.  He played out of position some last year but as a full time PG his ceiling is way up there.

If Smart is gone and we are picking 8th or so I'd grab Exum and pair him with Rondo.  That backcourt would be elite in a few years.