Olynyk is #1 on the Rookie Ladder

[The One]

http://www.nba.com/rookie-ladder/

This is wonderful news.  The kid can play obviously.  I wonder if he can keep it up, especially if he's not starting.

[TeamGreen.dm]

Im very excited for his first premiere matchup in an NBA game

[PhoSita]

If Kelly starts from the beginning of the season and gets to play essentially until he fouls out each game (25-35 minutes), he could be a legitimate rookie of the year candidate by virtue of his scoring alone.

On this team, with top scoring options slated to be Jeff Green, Jeff Green, Jeff Green, Courtney Lee, Jared Sullinger, Jeff Green, Rajon Rondo, Brandon Bass, and Jeff Green, there should be plenty of room for Kelly to carve out a role taking 10-15 shots a night.

[bfrombleacher]

Phil Pressey 10th despite everything he's done.

Last year he would have been 25th? 30th? Maybe worse?

This truly is a raw crop (wouldn't say weak since the 2011 draft was supposed to be weak but there were quite a few sleepers).

[Fafnir]

Summer league doesn't mean anything. It just doesn't.

Sometimes its promising and it pans out, other times players wilt against superior competition in the real NBA.

Similarly sometimes guys aren't great right away but turn into stars later.

[jambr380]

Interesting, however they are only basing it off of rookies in Orlando. After the other top rookies get a chance to show off (even a little bit), guys like Pressey will move wayyyy down the list.

I will say that Kelly is really showing his stuff and his ranking is certainly deserving. I just would have liked to see some other known names after Oladipo.

[PhoSita]

Summer league doesn't mean anything. It just doesn't.

Sometimes its promising and it pans out, other times players wilt against superior competition in the real NBA.

Similarly sometimes guys aren't great right away but turn into stars later.

I think position matters in Summer League.

I think it's safe to discount the speedy little combo guards that take a zillion shots a game.  I tend to think that a seven footer with the skills Kelly has shown will be able to find a decent offensive role in this league.

Is he going to average 19 points a game once the regular season starts?  I'd be shocked.

But if the team starts him and lets him play through foul trouble / turnovers / defensive struggles I think he could definitely score 12-14 points per game on something like 45/35/75 shooting, grabbing something like 5 or 6 rebounds and getting a couple assists and a steal.  Not amazing numbers, but pretty good for a rookie.

[sofutomygaha]

That's fun =)

There are only 10 teams in the summer league, though. Most of the top rookies haven't been seen yet.

[PhoSita]

That's fun =)

There are only 10 teams in the summer league, though. Most of the top rookies haven't been seen yet.

Fair to wonder which of the other lottery picks is going to have a better summer league start, though.

Perhaps one of the guards like McCollum or Burke.  Maybe McLemore.  Maybe Shabazz will put up some big numbers.

I don't expect much out of Bennett, Len, or Zeller.  Those guys will be too dependent on good guard play.

[Tr1boy]

Summer league doesn't mean anything. It just doesn't.

Sometimes its promising and it pans out, other times players wilt against superior competition in the real NBA.

Similarly sometimes guys aren't great right away but turn into stars later.

What a negative outlook fafnir.
So you rather see a bad to mediocre summer league performance? Does that still mean nothhing?

You know a solid performance means a shot at trainning camps for some of these guys. You start somewhere and build.

Those usually ive seen fail summer league but do well in the nba is bc they get to play with quality teammates, coaching staff and a pg that will give them a chance. On the flipside those that do well in the summer league but fail in the nba dont get support from their team and rarely get support from the pg.

I rather get a guy who can self start from the summer league , play an all around game like olynyk than a chucker who does well or does bad

[PhoSita]

Those usually ive seen fail summer league but do well in the nba is bc they get to play with quality teammates, coaching staff and a pg that will give them a chance. On the flipside those that do well in the summer league dont get support feombtheir team and rarely get support from the teams pg.

That's a quality point.  There's reason to believe Kelly could in some ways be even better in the regular season because he won't be asked to do as much.  A shooting big like Kelly is going to benefit a great deal from having seasoned teammates who can pass the ball and spread the floor more reliably.

Instead of getting passes from Phil Pressey and Jayson Granger, Kelly will be getting passes from Rondo and working a two man post game with Jared Sullinger.

[Boris Badenov]

Summer league doesn't mean anything. It just doesn't.

Sometimes its promising and it pans out, other times players wilt against superior competition in the real NBA.

Similarly sometimes guys aren't great right away but turn into stars later.

I think position matters in Summer League.

I think it's safe to discount the speedy little combo guards that take a zillion shots a game. 

My take on this is that it's really that post players are punished in Summer League play because there's no structured offense and the perimeter players take a lot of quick shots.

Olynyk is a perimeter guy too, as much as a post player. He doesn't need solid guard play in order to get his shot off, the way someone like Adams/Zeller would.

It doesn't mean I don't think highly of what he's done. I'm just throwing a few grains of salt out there on this particular theory.

One thing that is really encouraging is that if you look at the other high scorers (like the ones you're talking about - Lamb, Oladipo, MCW etc.) they are doing it on low-percentages. So even if Olynyk is taking outside shots, he's hitting them at a pretty high rate.

And what I find most encouraging to be honest are the steals (2.30 per game). If Olynyk doesn't have very good defense/rebounding down low but can compensate with quick hands and get deflections and steals down low, he will be much less of a liability, IMO.

[PhoSita]

Summer league doesn't mean anything. It just doesn't.

I don't really agree.

I think that like the D-league, the Summer League is useful for showing who does and does not belong.  If you dominate the D-League or the Summer League, you might be an NBA player, or you might not.  If you really struggle and fail to stand out in the D-League or Summer League, there's a very good chance you're not an NBA player. 

Sure, there are exceptions -- maybe a guy could flourish in the NBA but doesn't in the lower leagues because those league are so guard-centric.  Maybe your one NBA skill doesn't stand out a ton in the box score.  Greg Stiemsma is a useful (if limited) NBA player and he was by no means a D-League All-Star. 

But I do think that the D-League / Summer League can tell you something.

[PhoSita]

And what I find most encouraging to be honest are the steals (2.30 per game). If Olynyk doesn't have very good defense/rebounding down low but can compensate with quick hands and get deflections and steals down low, he will be much less of a liability, IMO.

Yeah, Kelly may not have very long arms, but he clearly has very good hands.  He catches the ball really well, he gets steals, and he's shown that he's a pretty good passer with nice floor vision.  All connected to his origins as a point guard in high school, I'm sure.

[Fafnir]

Summer league doesn't mean anything. It just doesn't.

Sometimes its promising and it pans out, other times players wilt against superior competition in the real NBA.

Similarly sometimes guys aren't great right away but turn into stars later.

What a negative outlook fafnir.
So you rather see a bad to mediocre summer league performance? Does that still mean nothhing?

I don' think its a negative outlook to say that summer league isn't meaningful. As you say it still would mean nothing if he'd played poorly. Its a four game sample against sub-par competition without much practice or work beforehand. Team-play typically is very poor and rotations, roles, and the rest are all ad hoc.

I'd rather he play well, but the evidence of past summer league doesn't show any sort of consistent relationship to actual ability to play NBA basketball.