With the current roster, is the Celts a playoff team??

[LilRip]

Mayo's PER is only 2.30 behind Ellis's last year, and that's including Mayo's unprecedented implosion in the last two months of the season.

Milwaukee has come out and said they will match any offer sheet Jennings receives, so he's staying around. With Skiles finally gone, Ilyasova will actually be unleashed for the whole season for once. Sanders is only going to get better, and Drew already said he'll be looking to develop Henson. For those who don't know, Henson is an extremely promising young big man who put up 17/18, 17/25, and 28/16 when given the run.

People keep calling Redick's departure a huge blow, but the guy's role diminished severely in Milwaukee, and they barely even played him in the postseason. He's a great player to be sure, but Milwaukee never even utilized him to his maximum potential. Besides the point, Milwaukee still has money to spend and I don't doubt it one bit that they will be looking to shore up their wing depth next.

what are you talking about? Young players can only improve if they're on the Celtics 

[LooseCannon]

The only way i can see that happening is if they truly believe that Humphries and Wallace are UPGRADES from KG and Pierce.

I think the Celtics under-performed relative to their talent level.  Part of that was due to players who I think were a bad fit (or possibly misused) like Courtney Lee, Jason Terry, and Chris Wilcox.  Part of that was health. 

The Celtics under Doc had a defensive scheme which was really only as good as its weakest link.  I felt there were some defensive problems because the team had a hard time putting out a five-man unit that worked together well on defense.  It improved as the season went on, but things really seemed to click in that short time when Rondo and Bradley were both healthy.

I don't know the specifics, but Stevens has been described as having complex defensive schemes.  What I do know is that he wants to his players get back on defense while shot-blocking has not been an important ingredient in his Butler defense.

If Stevens can get his players to execute his defense, they will probably be better than expected.  If he can have the defense looking good in November rather than struggling throughout the season to figure it out, I could see the Celtics being a Top-10 defense.  If that happens and a few things go right on offense, it could be interesting.

I'm not saying the Celtics will make the playoffs, but I can see a realistic path for that happening.

[LooseCannon]

All of you who believe that the Bucks are a playoff team, please explain your reasoning.

I don't think the Bucks are a lock for the playoffs, but starting Larry Sanders for a full season and not having Monta Ellis on the roster strike me as reasons that the Bucks should be better than last season.

[Tr1boy]

Another question is how does this team stack up vs the 2007 team?

I think we are much better now. To the pt playoffs are possible.

Sullinger- beast rebounder, hard to play against, high iq and will get more chances to score. I say 10 pts , 10 rbs, 2 assists

Olynyk- he did 18pts at over 60 percent fg per in college. Think about that for a sec. That is a ridiculous offensive stat. He may not do that in the nba, but 4-8, 5-10, 7-14 not out of question. I say 10 pts, 7 rbs, 2 assist

Green - our go to guy. Just amazing and at times unstoppable vs the knicks in the playoffs. He will be more ferocious , hungry and consistent. I say 17 pts, 5 rbs, 2 assists

Avery bradley - at his best, nobody is a better defender in the nba. Impacts the game.i expect him to be more consistent offensively. I say 8 pts, 3 rbs, 2 assist, 2 stls

Rondo - if back to form of 2008 + 2013 shooting. B4 used to revert to kg and pp alot. It could be a good thing they left and now rondo has no choice but to pass to others more trust others more. I say 16 pts, 4 rbs, 2 stls, 8 assists

From the bench i dont expect miracles, but humphries 6pts, 5 rbs, bass 6 pts 3-4 rbs, wallace 6 pts 6rbs, lee 6pts 2 stls, pressey 4 pts 4 assists


We will make the playoffs imo. On the bench we got guys who were starters last year, our bench last year was horrendous at times. And on the starting unit we replace pierce with green, which imo is an upgrade, ab is going to be healthy from the start of the year, rondo will be back to 100 percent. Biggest loss to me to me is kg and his defensive leadership. I think sully can be this guy though. Olynyk can replace kgs offensive production.

In some ways this years team has more depth, youth and skills than last years lack of size, no help from the bench team.

[Yogi]

All of you who believe that the Bucks are a playoff team, please explain your reasoning.

I don't think the Bucks are a lock for the playoffs, but starting Larry Sanders for a full season and not having Monta Ellis on the roster strike me as reasons that the Bucks should be better than last season.

Monta Ellis was the best Buck last year by far.  It's not even close.  Sanders started for 55 of the 71 games he played.  Bucks lost Ellis, Reddick, Dunleavy and added Pachulia and Mayo.  I would say one of the worst offensive teams got significantly worse offensively.

[LilRip]

The only way i can see that happening is if they truly believe that Humphries and Wallace are UPGRADES from KG and Pierce.

If Stevens can get his players to execute his defense, they will probably be better than expected.  If he can have the defense looking good in November rather than struggling throughout the season to figure it out, I could see the Celtics being a Top-10 defense.  If that happens and a few things go right on offense, it could be interesting.

I know we're all just projecting here (there are so many variables up in the air), but i have to disagree with this.

Paint protection is kinda like a big deal and we just don't have that. Sullinger reminds me of Big Baby in a lot of ways except without the ballhog tendencies. And Olynyk has great post moves but never really been thought of as a defender nor a terrific rebounder. So if we're starting Olynyk and Sullinger, then to me, it would sort of be like fielding a starting frontcourt of Big Baby and Andrea Bargnani (in terms of defense). I do this type of analogy to distance ourselves from the players (we as fans have a tendency to overrate our own). I don't think that tandem can anchor a defensive unit even with good schemes.

As presently constructed, I think we fall 20-30th in terms of defense this coming season, but if Stevens can somehow work miracles, then we might make it to 15-20th.

On offense actually is where i think we'd be "exciting". Fast teams with fast pace score a lot. I think we'll give up more than we score, more often than not, but i can see us averaging maybe 100 points (last year, we avg'd about 96 as a team).

[Tr1boy]

The only way i can see that happening is if they truly believe that Humphries and Wallace are UPGRADES from KG and Pierce.

If Stevens can get his players to execute his defense, they will probably be better than expected.  If he can have the defense looking good in November rather than struggling throughout the season to figure it out, I could see the Celtics being a Top-10 defense.  If that happens and a few things go right on offense, it could be interesting.

I know we're all just projecting here (there are so many variables up in the air), but i have to disagree with this.

Paint protection is kinda like a big deal and we just don't have that. Sullinger reminds me of Big Baby in a lot of ways except without the ballhog tendencies. And Olynyk has great post moves but never really been thought of as a defender nor a terrific rebounder. So if we're starting Olynyk and Sullinger, then to me, it would sort of be like fielding a starting frontcourt of Big Baby and Andrea Bargnani (in terms of defense). I do this type of analogy to distance ourselves from the players (we as fans have a tendency to overrate our own). I don't think that tandem can anchor a defensive unit even with good schemes.

As presently constructed, I think we fall 20-30th in terms of defense this coming season, but if Stevens can somehow work miracles, then we might make it to 15-20th.

On offense actually is where i think we'd be "exciting". Fast teams with fast pace score a lot. I think we'll give up more than we score, more often than not, but i can see us averaging maybe 100 points (last year, we avg'd about 96 as a team).

Can you tell me how a olynyk led gonzaga team went 30-3 in the regular season? He was their center and the team should of gotten killed in the inside, per your theory.

The guy is no kg, but he is given very little credit for his defensive capabilities. He is not going to get abused by his man. Bc he has a height adv and is pretty strong. He is very co ordinated , agile and has nice anticipation skills for his height. He is going to b mucb better than bargnani who is mechanical in his movements.

[chambers]

So if Wallace or Humphries (or both) play, it's possible we'll win over 30 games if the young guys play above last seasons level. I mean with Pierce and KG we won 41 games last season. KG and Pierce, combining what they contribute overall are more than 10 out of 41 wins to me in most cases. Even having Jason Terry gone adds to our loss column. Would I be completely off if I said they add 30 wins out of a 41 win season?

Obviously Rondo was out last season so that's gotta be factored in too, but KG, Pierce and Terry play a larger part in the win/loss column than Rondo. I guess we each have our own opinions on the impact this will have.

Simplified, my biggest concerns are as you pointed out and a few more:

*No C/PF combo (at this stage). So we are taking away Garnett but not replacing him with anyone close. (at this stage).

*This team has always struggled to score. Two of our main scorers in Pierce and KG are gone. Terry's gone too. What's even more alarming is the jump shooting and spacing that those players provided us with that scoring. We haven't found any replacement for this shooting so far either. Green, Lee and Crawford are our 3 specialists now.
 
We've replaced those guys with Olnyk, Brooks, Wallace and Humphries. Now we aren't sure if the latter two will wear a uniform yet.(I'm assuming they won't play significant minutes even if they do make the roster like Richard Jefferson)- which I could be completely wrong about. I just think Danny is too smart and realizes the ping pong consequences of this in a draft year like 2014. He has a track record of not letting emotion get in the way of trying to make the team better in the long run, and playing those two does not make the team better in the long run.

* We don't know what the final roster will be yet, if Hump and Wallace are bench guys or 13th/14th man players this season then our go to scorers are Green, Sully and Rondo. If they do play then add Wallace to that list.

2013 Celtics big man rotation + lack of scoring/shooting + lack of bench depth+lack of rim protection = gulp.

With Wallace and Humprhies playing normal minutes? We might win 32-35 games in a best case. Maybe 25 in worst case?

Without Wallace and Humphries (or if they ride the pine like Richard Jefferson and Biedrens at GSW) then we might win 25-30 in best case.
Worse case scenario? Is 17-22 wins fair?
If we lose one player to injury like Rondo, Bradley, Sully or Green then we could be a 15 win team.

[Quetzalcoatl]

this thread is making me very paranoid. If we get the 8th seed, Steven needs to be fired

[LilRip]

All of you who believe that the Bucks are a playoff team, please explain your reasoning.

I don't think the Bucks are a lock for the playoffs, but starting Larry Sanders for a full season and not having Monta Ellis on the roster strike me as reasons that the Bucks should be better than last season.

Monta Ellis was the best Buck last year by far.  It's not even close.  Sanders started for 55 of the 71 games he played.  Bucks lost Ellis, Reddick, Dunleavy and added Pachulia and Mayo.  I would say one of the worst offensive teams got significantly worse offensively.

hmm, you're right. the bucks  are probably going to finish 9th or 10th seed behind Miami, Indy, Chicago, Nets, Knicks, Wiz, Cavs, Pistons, and maybe the Raps? It doesn't matter.  We're still likely to be in the bottom 5 teams in the league next year.

[LilRip]

The only way i can see that happening is if they truly believe that Humphries and Wallace are UPGRADES from KG and Pierce.

If Stevens can get his players to execute his defense, they will probably be better than expected.  If he can have the defense looking good in November rather than struggling throughout the season to figure it out, I could see the Celtics being a Top-10 defense.  If that happens and a few things go right on offense, it could be interesting.

I know we're all just projecting here (there are so many variables up in the air), but i have to disagree with this.

Paint protection is kinda like a big deal and we just don't have that. Sullinger reminds me of Big Baby in a lot of ways except without the ballhog tendencies. And Olynyk has great post moves but never really been thought of as a defender nor a terrific rebounder. So if we're starting Olynyk and Sullinger, then to me, it would sort of be like fielding a starting frontcourt of Big Baby and Andrea Bargnani (in terms of defense). I do this type of analogy to distance ourselves from the players (we as fans have a tendency to overrate our own). I don't think that tandem can anchor a defensive unit even with good schemes.

As presently constructed, I think we fall 20-30th in terms of defense this coming season, but if Stevens can somehow work miracles, then we might make it to 15-20th.

On offense actually is where i think we'd be "exciting". Fast teams with fast pace score a lot. I think we'll give up more than we score, more often than not, but i can see us averaging maybe 100 points (last year, we avg'd about 96 as a team).

Can you tell me how a olynyk led gonzaga team went 30-3 in the regular season? He was their center and the team should of gotten killed in the inside, per your theory.

The guy is no kg, but he is given very little credit for his defensive capabilities. He is not going to get abused by his man. Bc he has a height adv and is pretty strong. He is very co ordinated , agile and has nice anticipation skills for his height. He is going to b mucb better than bargnani who is mechanical in his movements.

oh right, i forgot the part where he had to match up against competition that was far  superior to Tim Duncan, Roy Hibbert, Marc Gasol, Al Jefferson, Kevin Garnett etc. Not to mention he had to keep out perimeter players like Lebron, Melo, Harden, Durant, Deron, Kyrie, etc. Yes, olynyk and his shorter-than-his-height wingspan for all-nba defense.

I will give you that he is coordinated. I think he can score in the pro's.

[Yogi]

All of you who believe that the Bucks are a playoff team, please explain your reasoning.

I don't think the Bucks are a lock for the playoffs, but starting Larry Sanders for a full season and not having Monta Ellis on the roster strike me as reasons that the Bucks should be better than last season.

Monta Ellis was the best Buck last year by far.  It's not even close.  Sanders started for 55 of the 71 games he played.  Bucks lost Ellis, Reddick, Dunleavy and added Pachulia and Mayo.  I would say one of the worst offensive teams got significantly worse offensively.

hmm, you're right. the bucks  are probably going to finish 9th or 10th seed behind Miami, Indy, Chicago, Nets, Knicks, Wiz, Cavs, Pistons, and maybe the Raps? It doesn't matter.  We're still likely to be in the bottom 5 teams in the league next year.

Why would the Cavs, Pistons or Wizards be in the playoffs over the Celtics?  We are probably more talented than those rosters. 

Barring injury Miami, Brooklyn, Indiana, Chicago, New York will be in.  If Atlanta re-signs Teague, Korver and adds Ellis, they will also make it.  Wizards, Raptors and Celtics will fight for the remaining spot.  I think we have an excellent shot of making the playoffs. 

[Tr1boy]

Why are you listing duncan, hibbert etc. Olynyk is a pf in the nba. That is vs guys like monroe, al jefferson, josh smith, david west etc.

Alot of pfs are about 6'10 while olynyk is a legit 7 ft. Wingspan is mostly overrated. Only some know how to utilize it to their adv.

Sully will take on tyson chandler, gortats of the nba. He did a fantastic job on these guys. He can guard centers and rebound against the best

[Galeto]

Stevens was a defense-first coach at Butler.  With most of a full season of a Bradley/Rondo backcourt, I can see him putting together a top-10 team on defense.  It might require finding a cheap but adequate true center on defense, but it is possible.  Add that to Bradley making at least 37% of his threes and Olynyk also being a perimeter threat while playing acceptable NBA defense, and I can see the offense being good enough to make it into the playoffs when paired with maybe the 8th or 9th best defense in PPP.

Whether Stevens was a defense-first coach in COLLEGE or not, he's going to have to adjust to new rules and vastly better players.  I mean Leonard Hamilton produces one of the toughest, most physical and effective defenses every season in college and the one year he coached the Wizards, they finished last in defense.  A coach can only do so much.  To expect Stevens to work a miracle with the defensive personnel this team has in the front court, a front court which may be the slowest, least athletic in the league and to do it in his first season ever coaching in the NBA in any capacity is ridiculous.

[LilRip]

All of you who believe that the Bucks are a playoff team, please explain your reasoning.

I don't think the Bucks are a lock for the playoffs, but starting Larry Sanders for a full season and not having Monta Ellis on the roster strike me as reasons that the Bucks should be better than last season.

Monta Ellis was the best Buck last year by far.  It's not even close.  Sanders started for 55 of the 71 games he played.  Bucks lost Ellis, Reddick, Dunleavy and added Pachulia and Mayo.  I would say one of the worst offensive teams got significantly worse offensively.

hmm, you're right. the bucks  are probably going to finish 9th or 10th seed behind Miami, Indy, Chicago, Nets, Knicks, Wiz, Cavs, Pistons, and maybe the Raps? It doesn't matter.  We're still likely to be in the bottom 5 teams in the league next year.

Why would the Cavs, Pistons or Wizards be in the playoffs over the Celtics?  We are probably more talented than those rosters. 

Barring injury Miami, Brooklyn, Indiana, Chicago, New York will be in.  If Atlanta re-signs Teague, Korver and adds Ellis, they will also make it.  Wizards, Raptors and Celtics will fight for the remaining spot.  I think we have an excellent shot of making the playoffs.

because the wizards should be healthy this year and have enough talent to at least make it to the playoffs.
because Josh Smith makes the Pistons better and could push them to the playoffs, not to mention Monroe and Drummond should be improved.
because Cavs are fielding a ton of promising young talent that should also improve, if their health keeps up. they might make the playoffs as an 8th seed.

see, i even completely forgot about the Hawks, but yes, they will likely make it.