We might not have to tank. We'll be terrible. Celtics win record in 13-14?

[celticmania]

25 wins if we dont have rondo... 35 if we do have rondo

[danglertx]

Kind of hard to predict when we don't know what the roster is going to look like.  I seriously doubt Humphries and Brooks are on the team opening night.  We will get something out of those two guys.  Brooks will probably be paired with Bass or Lee for someone.

[slamtheking]

I'm figuring 25 wins and about the 6th or 7th worst record.

right in the perfect spot to get picked for one of the top 3 slots   

[SparzWizard]

36-win team.

Maybe sneak into the playoffs as the 8th seed and get ousted by the Miami Heat in round 1.

I think that's being very generous. Speaking of the terrible Bucks, how do we stop Ilyasova and Larry Sanders?

What I mean is that we will go from having a top 5 defense in the NBA to a bottom 5 defense. That's how important KG is.
Combine that with our lack of jump shooting and three point shooting will be. Bass, Green and Gerald Wallace will be our best jumpshooters. Hmmmmmm.

36 wins is winning only 5 less games than last year with KG and Pierce, Terry and Doc. We lose KG's rebounding. We lose his rim protection, his defense on starting NBA 7 footers and replace is with a rookie. We lose Pierce's 3 point shooting, his 16 ppg and 5 assists.

Green might average 20 and 5 but who else is scoring more than 16 ppg with teams clogging the paint against us and abusing us inside on the other end?

True that. We'll see how the Celtics do during free agency.

I think this season, we can beat scrub teams like the Bobcats and Pistons that'll net us a few more wins. Those were games we shouldn't have lost last season anyways. But we are going to have a lot of trouble beating .500 teams and above with this typical roster.

[LarBrd33]

Our future is full of roasted garlic hummus.

You're really trying to cultivate a distinct persona on here post-tank, huh?

No ... I just forgot to eat lunch today.

[chambers]

This is from Wikipedia about NBA Draft Lottery:

Starting from 1987, the NBA modified the lottery system so that only the first three picks were determined by the lottery. After the three envelopes were drawn, the remaining non-playoff teams would select in reverse order of their win-loss record. This meant that the team with the worst record could receive no worse than the fourth selection, the second-worst team could pick no lower than fifth, and so on.

In 2007, we were the second-worst team and got the fifth pick, so this data is correct.

If we are going to tank, we must make sure we are the worst team. Not the second worst team.

Looking into the future, lets say there are 4 teams that are worse than us next season.
We end up with the 5th worst record.
Lets assume there are 3 franchise guys in this draft.
Wiggins, Parker and Randle.
and another 4 All stars at a minimum. So 8 All Stars total

Here are our draft chances of landing a top 5 pick in 2014 if we finish 5th worst.(I'm pretty sure my rough math gives a reasonably accurate % unless im using a completely wrong formula which I dont think I am)

5th worst regular season record =

70% of a top 5 pick (700 chances out of 1000 at landing any of the top 5 draft picks) and then

60% chance of a top 4 pick (600 chances)
38% of a top 3 pick. (380)
18.5% of the 2nd pick (185 chances)
8.5% of the number one pick (85 chances)

If we finished 4th overall we'd have a roughly 83% chance at a top 5 pick with(roughly):

top 4 pick=78% chance
top 3 pick=46%
top 2 pick=26%
1st overall pick= 13%

If there are 8 All Star level prospects in the 2014 draft, we are 100% guaranteed a shot at selecting one of them.

Even with 6 All stars we are still 90% guaranteed a shot at one ( I know, don't remind me of 2007 draft) The odds are still incredibly good.

Basically a 42% chance of landing a 'potential' franchise player with either of the 4th or 5th picks and a 90% chance of landing a 'potential' All Star (or a top 6 pick) in 2014.

I'd say a franchise guy is much more likely if Rondo or Green go down with injury for significant time.
But we'll see. Our defense, rebounding and shooting will be that terrible that I wouldn't be surprised to end up a bottom 4 team.

[chambers]

Why don't we see first how the opening night roster looks before rushing to conclusions about how "awful" we are going to be?

Also, just a note about how our offense will supposedly lack without Pierce and Terry:

Pierce and Terry were both very inconsistent last season, offensively (see the Knicks series.)

Pierce was inconsistent in the playoffs. But don't worry about the playoffs. We don't have a chance of making the playoffs.

Remember that Pierce had better stats than Luol Deng and Paul George and probably should have been selected as an All Star. His All Star level play kept us at .500 basketball. That's WITH Kevin Garnett on the floor and directing our defense.

We just lost both. We have a reasonable replacement for Pierce in Green, but we have absolutely nothing that resembles Kevin Garnett. Just imagine last year without KG and Rondo and just Pierce.

Now imagine this year with Rondo and Jeff Green with no KG.

Gulp.

What if the Celts pick up Josh Smith? I think Smith would definitely be able to replace KG's production. That's why I say, wait til October to see how the roster looks.

Also remember, there was a reason why Ainge dealt Pierce and KG.

Hall of Fame players, but their clock ran out.

The point of this thread is based on the notion that we aren't making any more major changes from now on.
The roster stays as it is.
No overpaid free agents. Obviously Josh Smith makes us a 40-45 win team.
Did you read the original post topic lol?

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

Yeah just to clarify.  The players will not be tanking.  The players will give it their all when they are in the game.

The Celtics players aren't tanking.

Danny Ainge is tanking.  Big difference. If he wanted to, he could put together a competitive playoff caliber 35-45 win team.  Shoot, if he wanted to he could have just kept everyone together and we'd limp into the playoffs with another 41 game season. 

But that's not the plan.  The plan is to load this team with unproven, raw, young talent and future draft picks... grows them up like lil bloomin flowers, and then either build your garden around them... or trade em at the farmer's market for some roasted garlic hummus.   

Same thing in 2007.  It's not like Big Al, Rondo, Gerald, Delonte, etc weren't trying to win... they just didn't have enough talent to get it done.  There were some sketchy late-game decisions late in the season where Doc benched our savvy players for raw talent, but it was defensible as "developing the young guys in crunch time".  Pierce claimed he would have played more of that season had the team been playing for a purpose... so those tiny things can be interpreted as "tanking", but Boston would never admit "we threw games".  They weren't throwing games... bricking shots on purpose and turning the ball over.  They just sucked.

The 2013-14 Celtics will suck by design.  And it's a glorious thing.  We plowed the field and are starting to plant the seeds.  Our future is full of roasted garlic hummus.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Celtics18]

This is from Wikipedia about NBA Draft Lottery:

Starting from 1987, the NBA modified the lottery system so that only the first three picks were determined by the lottery. After the three envelopes were drawn, the remaining non-playoff teams would select in reverse order of their win-loss record. This meant that the team with the worst record could receive no worse than the fourth selection, the second-worst team could pick no lower than fifth, and so on.

In 2007, we were the second-worst team and got the fifth pick, so this data is correct.

If we are going to tank, we must make sure we are the worst team. Not the second worst team.

Looking into the future, lets say there are 4 teams that are worse than us next season.
We end up with the 5th worst record.
Lets assume there are 3 franchise guys in this draft.
Wiggins, Parker and Randle.
and another 4 All stars at a minimum. So 8 All Stars total

Here are our draft chances of landing a top 5 pick in 2014 if we finish 5th worst.(I'm pretty sure my rough math gives a reasonably accurate % unless im using a completely wrong formula which I dont think I am)

70% of a top 5 pick (700 chances out of 1000 at landing any of the top 5 draft picks) and then

60% chance of a top 4 pick (600 chances)
38% of a top 3 pick. (380)
18.5% of the 2nd pick (185 chances)
8.5% of the number one pick (85 chances)

If we finished 4th overall we'd have a roughly 83% chance at a top 5 pick with(roughly):

top 4 pick=78% chance
top 3 pick=46%
top 2 pick=26%
1st overall pick= 13%

Basically guaranteed a shot at an All Star level prospect providing we pick one.

Basically a 42% chance of landing a franchise player with either of the 4th or 5th picks.
I'd say a franchise guy is much more likely if Rondo or Green go down with injury for significant time.
But we'll see. Our defense, rebounding and shooting will be that terrible that I wouldn't be surprised to end up a bottom 4 team.

That's funny.   

[manl_lui]

If we want lottery we either tank or trade Rondo

There is no way that if Rondo plays, that we will be a lotto team

[chambers]

If we want lottery we either tank or trade Rondo

There is no way that if Rondo plays, that we will be a lotto team

I wouldn't be so sure. In fact I think you're incorrect.
What does Rondo replace that nullifies the loss of Pierce and KG?
Who replaces KG on defense? We barely made the playoffs last year and had a .500 record.
The Bucks made the playoffs as the 8th seed.
There is zero chance we could compete against last years Bucks team with this current roster.

The key is not having any defensive big men, a lack of rebounding, a lack of three point shooting and jump shooting in general.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

If we want lottery we either tank or trade Rondo

There is no way that if Rondo plays, that we will be a lotto team

[/b]

ANYTHING IS POSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSIBLLLLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[Galeto]

If we want lottery we either tank or trade Rondo

There is no way that if Rondo plays, that we will be a lotto team

Rondo is not going to singlehandedly make this young and skills-challenged Celtics team a playoff team.  40 something wins is not easy to come by.

Even if Rondo is fully healthy at the start of the season and goes on to have a great season, the defense should prevent enough victories to jump out of the lottery.  With Bass, Sullinger, Olynyk and Melo as the bigs, this team is going to be terrible at defending the rim and paint. 

[PhoSita]

People don't seem to understand how bad a team with a mix of the following filling out our center minutes will be:

Bass
Sullinger
Olynyk
Humphries
Iverson
Melo

[GreenEnvy]

If we want lottery we either tank or trade Rondo

There is no way that if Rondo plays, that we will be a lotto team

Weren't we 20-23 with Rondo, Pierce, and Garnett?

What makes you think he alone would improve upon that?

30-35 wins tops with the way the roster is currently constructed. I think we would have to get down into the high teens to have a great shot at a top 5 pick, as I think a lot of teams will tank next season.