Jimmy Butler

[Galeto]

The last four drafts have not been good for Ainge.  Ever since the draft rules were changed, he hasn't all that good. Bradley's been okay, he's had one bad year, one decent and one pretty good year.  Sullinger was a calculated risk and too good to pass up.  If he can overcome his back issue, he'll be a big draft hit but it's worrisome that the prognosis of his back was right on the mark.  With Melo, I look fondly at his BPG number in the D-League and think it should translate in the NBA, giving him value but when I watch him play, I see a poor athlete and potential bust. Right now a big like Ezeli who could've provided strong defense this season looks like the better player.

I'd like to see Ainge adjust his draft strategy a bit.  He goes for too many home runs in the first round. JaJuan Johnson and Giddens were fantastic athletes who've busted for a variety of reasons.  Gerald Green was a similar bust to Giddens with a low basketball IQ and terrible ballhandling skills.  I'm not sure why Ainge doesn't value ballhandling skills in his perimeter players but from Gerald and Tony to Delonte, Bradley and Giddens (all not busts obviously) he's drafted some of the worst ballhandling perimeter players who've entered the league the past ten years.

Ainge has done a pretty poor job since the 2008 off season.

[ManUp]

The last four drafts have not been good for Ainge.  Ever since the draft rules were changed, he hasn't all that good. Bradley's been okay, he's had one bad year, one decent and one pretty good year.  Sullinger was a calculated risk and too good to pass up.  If he can overcome his back issue, he'll be a big draft hit but it's worrisome that the prognosis of his back was right on the mark.  With Melo, I look fondly at his BPG number in the D-League and think it should translate in the NBA, giving him value but when I watch him play, I see a poor athlete and potential bust. Right now a big like Ezeli who could've provided strong defense this season looks like the better player.

I'd like to see Ainge adjust his draft strategy a bit.  He goes for too many home runs in the first round. JaJuan Johnson and Giddens were fantastic athletes who've busted for a variety of reasons.  Gerald Green was a similar bust to Giddens with a low basketball IQ and terrible ballhandling skills.  I'm not sure why Ainge doesn't value ballhandling skills in his perimeter players but from Gerald and Tony to Delonte, Bradley and Giddens (all not busts obviously) he's drafted some of the worst ballhandling perimeter players who've entered the league the past ten years.

Ainge has done a pretty poor job since the 2008 off season.

I think Danny has done his worst when drafting for positional needs in stead of BPA. JR Giddens and Bill Walker were supposed to be Posey replacements. Lester Hudson was the 58th pick in the draft. Avery Bradley was BPA and Harangody was a 52 pick.  JuJuan Johnson was the shot blocking big the team was missing. Sullinger was BPA, Fab Melo was a shot blocking center something the team was sorely lacking, Joseph is a 51 pick .

Out of our last 5 1st round picks only Bradley and Sullinger were considered BPA. Giddens(and Walker) was supposed to help backup the wing by committee. Johnson was drafted because all we had no talented size outside of Garnett at the time. Melo was picked because we needed a center.

Hopefully Danny realizes drafting for need doesn't work, at least not when he does it.

[pearljammer10]

Theres no way you can call Ainge a bad drafter. Especially compared to the rest of the leagues draft record. Win some, lose some.

[Boris Badenov]

The last four drafts have not been good for Ainge.  Ever since the draft rules were changed, he hasn't all that good. Bradley's been okay, he's had one bad year, one decent and one pretty good year.  Sullinger was a calculated risk and too good to pass up.  If he can overcome his back issue, he'll be a big draft hit but it's worrisome that the prognosis of his back was right on the mark.  With Melo, I look fondly at his BPG number in the D-League and think it should translate in the NBA, giving him value but when I watch him play, I see a poor athlete and potential bust. Right now a big like Ezeli who could've provided strong defense this season looks like the better player.

I'd like to see Ainge adjust his draft strategy a bit.  He goes for too many home runs in the first round. JaJuan Johnson and Giddens were fantastic athletes who've busted for a variety of reasons.  Gerald Green was a similar bust to Giddens with a low basketball IQ and terrible ballhandling skills.  I'm not sure why Ainge doesn't value ballhandling skills in his perimeter players but from Gerald and Tony to Delonte, Bradley and Giddens (all not busts obviously) he's drafted some of the worst ballhandling perimeter players who've entered the league the past ten years.

Ainge has done a pretty poor job since the 2008 off season.

I think Danny has done his worst when drafting for positional needs in stead of BPA. JR Giddens and Bill Walker were supposed to be Posey replacements. Lester Hudson was the 58th pick in the draft. Avery Bradley was BPA and Harangody was a 52 pick.  JuJuan Johnson was the shot blocking big the team was missing. Sullinger was BPA, Fab Melo was a shot blocking center something the team was sorely lacking, Joseph is a 51 pick .

Out of our last 5 1st round picks only Bradley and Sullinger were considered BPA. Giddens(and Walker) was supposed to help backup the wing by committee. Johnson was drafted because all we had no talented size outside of Garnett at the time. Melo was picked because we needed a center.

Hopefully Danny realizes drafting for need doesn't work, at least not when he does it.

I'm not sure I understand how you can label players as "need" or "BPA" so concretely, unless you have an insight into Danny's mind that no one else on this board does.

Why was Johnson a "need" at PF while Sully at PF the next year was "BPA"? Didn't we have a "need" for a perimeter defender when we drafted AB? Did Danny specifically mention Walker as a replacement for Posey? Etc.

[Boris Badenov]

Yeah, Butler would have been a steal when instead Danny took a bust in 3J.

But how does Danny compare with his colleagues in drafting overall?  Just ballparking it, I'd say he's done relatively better drafting in the mid-to-late second round than in the first.  He's probably a top five second-round draft picker, no more than 10th in picking in the first, and maybe seven overall.

He seems to have peaked in his drafting--and here I'm again just ballparking it--what, years two through six, maybe?  With the exception of missing the importance of size and strength for the PF spot, which hurt him with Gody and 3J but is understandable considering his hits with Gomes, Powe and Baby--he really seems to miss on judging some players' mindset. 

I posted something pretty detailed on this a while back:

I think a good way to evaluate Danny is by asking whether, in a re-draft, his picks would have gone consistently higher or consistently lower than where they were actually drafted. This tells you whether he usually outperforms his draft position.

I think on that dimension Danny does pretty well.

Here are my assessments, grouping players into five categories:

Definitely lower (3): Giddens, JJJ, Gerald Green

Probably lower (1): Gabe Pruitt

Wash (3): Orien Greene, Lester Hudson, Luke Harangody

Probably higher (1): E'Twuan Moore

Definitely higher ( 8 ): Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, Rondo, Glen Davis, Semih Erden, Avery Bradley.

I'm holding off on evaluating 2011 for now.

If you want to look at performance over time, two "definitely lower" picks have come since 2008 but so have two "definitely higher" and one "probably higher." I'd call that weak evidence of worse performance, in a small sample, so I am not drawing any conclusions.

Of course not all of these comparisons are equal - Rondo was a much bigger steal than Erden, for example.

But I think this makes Danny look better overall, actually. Rondo is a huge steal for where he was drafted, and Jefferson, Allen, Bradley and Davis are all extremely good performers for their draft positions.

In contrast, while JJJ and Giddens are disappointments, 60-75% of players drafted in that range never become rotation players anyway.

You can get a feel for this here:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

And this analysis only goes to 2008 but ranks teams by draft performance historically.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

You can put Danny's performance in perspective by looking at some other team that have drafted in comparable spots:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/

[Galeto]

Theres no way you can call Ainge a bad drafter. Especially compared to the rest of the leagues draft record. Win some, lose some.

I think he's been a below-average drafter the last four drafts.  Sullinger and Bradley qualify as pretty good hits for where they were drafted but the big misses on Johnson, Giddens and the "redshirt" season of Melo tilts his average into the negative.  With the salary cap restraints this team has had until last season, he needed to be great in the draft but just hasn't been up to the mark.

I just don't understand why Ainge puts such little importance on ballhandling ability.  After Rondo got hurt, this team became maybe the worst ballhandling team in history, no exaggeration, in history.  It was that bad.  Being able to handle the ball is not a trivial skill.

[Moranis]

Yeah, Butler would have been a steal when instead Danny took a bust in 3J.

But how does Danny compare with his colleagues in drafting overall?  Just ballparking it, I'd say he's done relatively better drafting in the mid-to-late second round than in the first.  He's probably a top five second-round draft picker, no more than 10th in picking in the first, and maybe seven overall.

He seems to have peaked in his drafting--and here I'm again just ballparking it--what, years two through six, maybe?  With the exception of missing the importance of size and strength for the PF spot, which hurt him with Gody and 3J but is understandable considering his hits with Gomes, Powe and Baby--he really seems to miss on judging some players' mindset. 

I posted something pretty detailed on this a while back:

I think a good way to evaluate Danny is by asking whether, in a re-draft, his picks would have gone consistently higher or consistently lower than where they were actually drafted. This tells you whether he usually outperforms his draft position.

I think on that dimension Danny does pretty well.

Here are my assessments, grouping players into five categories:

Definitely lower (3): Giddens, JJJ, Gerald Green

Probably lower (1): Gabe Pruitt

Wash (3): Orien Greene, Lester Hudson, Luke Harangody

Probably higher (1): E'Twuan Moore

Definitely higher ( 8 ): Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, Rondo, Glen Davis, Semih Erden, Avery Bradley.

I'm holding off on evaluating 2011 for now.

If you want to look at performance over time, two "definitely lower" picks have come since 2008 but so have two "definitely higher" and one "probably higher." I'd call that weak evidence of worse performance, in a small sample, so I am not drawing any conclusions.


Of course not all of these comparisons are equal - Rondo was a much bigger steal than Erden, for example.

But I think this makes Danny look better overall, actually. Rondo is a huge steal for where he was drafted, and Jefferson, Allen, Bradley and Davis are all extremely good performers for their draft positions.

In contrast, while JJJ and Giddens are disappointments, 60-75% of players drafted in that range never become rotation players anyway.

You can get a feel for this here:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

And this analysis only goes to 2008 but ranks teams by draft performance historically.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

You can put Danny's performance in perspective by looking at some other team that have drafted in comparable spots:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/

I commented on at least one of these, that I don't think Delonte West goes higher, at least not with any certainty.  He might, he might not.  That was a very deep draft.

I also think it is a bit early to say Avery Bradley clearly goes higher.  Thus far only Babbit, Henry, and Aldrich have clearly produced worse than Bradley that were drafted ahead of him (Udoh, Wes Johnson are in his range) while Vasquez, Crawford, Booker, Fields, and Stephenson have all produced more (even Poindexter has played almost 50 more games with similar stats). 

But the point of this thread was the recent trend, which nothing in your numbers discredit.  Ainge hasn't drafted well since 2007.  He has had far more misses than hits and hasn't landed a substantial player since Rondo and Davis in that 2007 draft.  Even his good draft of 2004, he missed out on Kevin Martin and Anderson Varejao who went in the 5 picks after Allen.  Even Josh Smith went 2 picks after Jefferson.

[scaryjerry]

Jimmy butler is a joy to watch play

Lol@Derrick rose thinking the bulls hadn't done enough to put around him...2 all stars, boozer, cast of good role players, great defensive team, and challenging the heat in round 2 without him.

[wahz]

Chandler Parsons

...is the steal of the draft.

So as Isaiah Thomas I think...

I hated that JJJ trade. I think MarShon could have provided us with scoring off the bench. Jimmy Butler has red flags on his knees coming out, which is why he dropped otherwise he could have been a lottery pick.

Jimmy's knees are so bad he can't sit down during games.

[Boris Badenov]

But the point of this thread was the recent trend, which nothing in your numbers discredit.  Ainge hasn't drafted well since 2007.  He has had far more misses than hits and hasn't landed a substantial player since Rondo and Davis in that 2007 draft.  Even his good draft of 2004, he missed out on Kevin Martin and Anderson Varejao who went in the 5 picks after Allen.  Even Josh Smith went 2 picks after Jefferson.

Since 2008 (and not counting last year because it's too soon), we've drafted higher than 30 once - and that pick was Bradley, who I count as a "hit" (even with his recent downturn he is a legit NBA player, and was in discussions for All-Defense team this year). It sounds like you'd rank him as a "wash" but that's not where I really disagree with you.

Giddens is a "miss," no doubt about that.

The rest of the picks I see have been 51, 55, 52, 58, 47 and 60. I'll rank them by games played (it's easy and not a bad measure to me for players in this spot, where making a roster is an accomplishment and most players in that range never play a single game in the NBA).

Moore was 55 and among players taken 46-60 that year he is 3rd out of 15 in GP.

Harangody was 52 and among players taken 46-60 that year he is 2nd out of 15 in GP.

Lester Hudson was 58 and among players taken 46-60 that year he is 4th out of 15 in GP.

Bill Walker and Semih Erden were 47th and 60th and among players taken 46-60 that year are 1st and 2nd out of 15 in GP.

Please explain how this represents "far more misses than hits."

[Moranis]

But the point of this thread was the recent trend, which nothing in your numbers discredit.  Ainge hasn't drafted well since 2007.  He has had far more misses than hits and hasn't landed a substantial player since Rondo and Davis in that 2007 draft.  Even his good draft of 2004, he missed out on Kevin Martin and Anderson Varejao who went in the 5 picks after Allen.  Even Josh Smith went 2 picks after Jefferson.

Since 2008 (and not counting last year because it's too soon), we've drafted higher than 30 once - and that pick was Bradley, who I count as a "hit" (even with his recent downturn he is a legit NBA player, and was in discussions for All-Defense team this year). It sounds like you'd rank him as a "wash" but that's not where I really disagree with you.

Giddens is a "miss," no doubt about that.

The rest of the picks I see have been 51, 55, 52, 58, 47 and 60. I'll rank them by games played (it's easy and not a bad measure to me for players in this spot, where making a roster is an accomplishment and most players in that range never play a single game in the NBA).

Moore was 55 and among players taken 46-60 that year he is 3rd out of 15 in GP.

Harangody was 52 and among players taken 46-60 that year he is 2nd out of 15 in GP.

Lester Hudson was 58 and among players taken 46-60 that year he is 4th out of 15 in GP.

Bill Walker and Semih Erden were 47th and 60th and among players taken 46-60 that year are 1st and 2nd out of 15 in GP.

Please explain how this represents "far more misses than hits."

2008 - JR Giddens - Miss : Semih Erden - Hit (though out of the league)
2009 - Lester Hudson - wash (played a bit so there's that, but was worthless and out of the league quickly)
2010 - Avery Bradley - wash (Injured a lot and a lot of very strong players taken after him) : Luke Harangody - Hit (in that he played, but is now out of the league)
2011 - JaJuan Johnson - Miss : E'Taun Moore - Hit (though Isiah Thomas would have looked a lot nicer and Moore isn't on Boston any more)
2012 - Jared Sullinger - Wash (injured at the time and the injury cost him half the season) : Fab Melo - Miss (at this point he may still turn into something years from now) : Kris Joseph - Miss

And the only two guys that even look like rotation players have missed about half their games due to injury in Bradley and Sullinger.  The reality is Boston hasn't been able to rely on anything from the draft in 5 years, and that is never a good thing no matter your draft position.

[BballTim]

Yeah, Butler would have been a steal when instead Danny took a bust in 3J.

But how does Danny compare with his colleagues in drafting overall?  Just ballparking it, I'd say he's done relatively better drafting in the mid-to-late second round than in the first.  He's probably a top five second-round draft picker, no more than 10th in picking in the first, and maybe seven overall.

He seems to have peaked in his drafting--and here I'm again just ballparking it--what, years two through six, maybe?  With the exception of missing the importance of size and strength for the PF spot, which hurt him with Gody and 3J but is understandable considering his hits with Gomes, Powe and Baby--he really seems to miss on judging some players' mindset. 

I posted something pretty detailed on this a while back:

I think a good way to evaluate Danny is by asking whether, in a re-draft, his picks would have gone consistently higher or consistently lower than where they were actually drafted. This tells you whether he usually outperforms his draft position.

I think on that dimension Danny does pretty well.

Here are my assessments, grouping players into five categories:

Definitely lower (3): Giddens, JJJ, Gerald Green

Probably lower (1): Gabe Pruitt

Wash (3): Orien Greene, Lester Hudson, Luke Harangody

Probably higher (1): E'Twuan Moore

Definitely higher ( 8 ): Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, Rondo, Glen Davis, Semih Erden, Avery Bradley.

I'm holding off on evaluating 2011 for now.

If you want to look at performance over time, two "definitely lower" picks have come since 2008 but so have two "definitely higher" and one "probably higher." I'd call that weak evidence of worse performance, in a small sample, so I am not drawing any conclusions.


Of course not all of these comparisons are equal - Rondo was a much bigger steal than Erden, for example.

But I think this makes Danny look better overall, actually. Rondo is a huge steal for where he was drafted, and Jefferson, Allen, Bradley and Davis are all extremely good performers for their draft positions.

In contrast, while JJJ and Giddens are disappointments, 60-75% of players drafted in that range never become rotation players anyway.

You can get a feel for this here:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

And this analysis only goes to 2008 but ranks teams by draft performance historically.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

You can put Danny's performance in perspective by looking at some other team that have drafted in comparable spots:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/

I commented on at least one of these, that I don't think Delonte West goes higher, at least not with any certainty.  He might, he might not.  That was a very deep draft.

I also think it is a bit early to say Avery Bradley clearly goes higher.  Thus far only Babbit, Henry, and Aldrich have clearly produced worse than Bradley that were drafted ahead of him (Udoh, Wes Johnson are in his range) while Vasquez, Crawford, Booker, Fields, and Stephenson have all produced more (even Poindexter has played almost 50 more games with similar stats). 

But the point of this thread was the recent trend, which nothing in your numbers discredit.  Ainge hasn't drafted well since 2007.  He has had far more misses than hits and hasn't landed a substantial player since Rondo and Davis in that 2007 draft.  Even his good draft of 2004, he missed out on Kevin Martin and Anderson Varejao who went in the 5 picks after Allen.  Even Josh Smith went 2 picks after Jefferson.

  I think if the criteria you're using to evaluate picks is whether someone picks the absolute best player out of everyone available then every gm in history would look pretty bad. Before 2008 Danny had better draft positions (on average) and was drafting players to become assets. After 2007 he was drafting later and looking for players who could fill certain needs on a contending team, not as easy.

[Moranis]

Yeah, Butler would have been a steal when instead Danny took a bust in 3J.

But how does Danny compare with his colleagues in drafting overall?  Just ballparking it, I'd say he's done relatively better drafting in the mid-to-late second round than in the first.  He's probably a top five second-round draft picker, no more than 10th in picking in the first, and maybe seven overall.

He seems to have peaked in his drafting--and here I'm again just ballparking it--what, years two through six, maybe?  With the exception of missing the importance of size and strength for the PF spot, which hurt him with Gody and 3J but is understandable considering his hits with Gomes, Powe and Baby--he really seems to miss on judging some players' mindset. 

I posted something pretty detailed on this a while back:

I think a good way to evaluate Danny is by asking whether, in a re-draft, his picks would have gone consistently higher or consistently lower than where they were actually drafted. This tells you whether he usually outperforms his draft position.

I think on that dimension Danny does pretty well.

Here are my assessments, grouping players into five categories:

Definitely lower (3): Giddens, JJJ, Gerald Green

Probably lower (1): Gabe Pruitt

Wash (3): Orien Greene, Lester Hudson, Luke Harangody

Probably higher (1): E'Twuan Moore

Definitely higher ( 8 ): Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Ryan Gomes, Rondo, Glen Davis, Semih Erden, Avery Bradley.

I'm holding off on evaluating 2011 for now.

If you want to look at performance over time, two "definitely lower" picks have come since 2008 but so have two "definitely higher" and one "probably higher." I'd call that weak evidence of worse performance, in a small sample, so I am not drawing any conclusions.


Of course not all of these comparisons are equal - Rondo was a much bigger steal than Erden, for example.

But I think this makes Danny look better overall, actually. Rondo is a huge steal for where he was drafted, and Jefferson, Allen, Bradley and Davis are all extremely good performers for their draft positions.

In contrast, while JJJ and Giddens are disappointments, 60-75% of players drafted in that range never become rotation players anyway.

You can get a feel for this here:

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

And this analysis only goes to 2008 but ranks teams by draft performance historically.

http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

You can put Danny's performance in perspective by looking at some other team that have drafted in comparable spots:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/

I commented on at least one of these, that I don't think Delonte West goes higher, at least not with any certainty.  He might, he might not.  That was a very deep draft.

I also think it is a bit early to say Avery Bradley clearly goes higher.  Thus far only Babbit, Henry, and Aldrich have clearly produced worse than Bradley that were drafted ahead of him (Udoh, Wes Johnson are in his range) while Vasquez, Crawford, Booker, Fields, and Stephenson have all produced more (even Poindexter has played almost 50 more games with similar stats). 

But the point of this thread was the recent trend, which nothing in your numbers discredit.  Ainge hasn't drafted well since 2007.  He has had far more misses than hits and hasn't landed a substantial player since Rondo and Davis in that 2007 draft.  Even his good draft of 2004, he missed out on Kevin Martin and Anderson Varejao who went in the 5 picks after Allen.  Even Josh Smith went 2 picks after Jefferson.

  I think if the criteria you're using to evaluate picks is whether someone picks the absolute best player out of everyone available then every gm in history would look pretty bad. Before 2008 Danny had better draft positions (on average) and was drafting players to become assets. After 2007 he was drafting later and looking for players who could fill certain needs on a contending team, not as easy.

Not my criteria, but I would like to see at least a few contributors.

[Boris Badenov]

But the point of this thread was the recent trend, which nothing in your numbers discredit.  Ainge hasn't drafted well since 2007.  He has had far more misses than hits and hasn't landed a substantial player since Rondo and Davis in that 2007 draft.  Even his good draft of 2004, he missed out on Kevin Martin and Anderson Varejao who went in the 5 picks after Allen.  Even Josh Smith went 2 picks after Jefferson.

Since 2008 (and not counting last year because it's too soon), we've drafted higher than 30 once - and that pick was Bradley, who I count as a "hit" (even with his recent downturn he is a legit NBA player, and was in discussions for All-Defense team this year). It sounds like you'd rank him as a "wash" but that's not where I really disagree with you.

Giddens is a "miss," no doubt about that.

The rest of the picks I see have been 51, 55, 52, 58, 47 and 60. I'll rank them by games played (it's easy and not a bad measure to me for players in this spot, where making a roster is an accomplishment and most players in that range never play a single game in the NBA).

Moore was 55 and among players taken 46-60 that year he is 3rd out of 15 in GP.

Harangody was 52 and among players taken 46-60 that year he is 2nd out of 15 in GP.

Lester Hudson was 58 and among players taken 46-60 that year he is 4th out of 15 in GP.

Bill Walker and Semih Erden were 47th and 60th and among players taken 46-60 that year are 1st and 2nd out of 15 in GP.

Please explain how this represents "far more misses than hits."

2008 - JR Giddens - Miss : Semih Erden - Hit (though out of the league)
2009 - Lester Hudson - wash (played a bit so there's that, but was worthless and out of the league quickly)
2010 - Avery Bradley - wash (Injured a lot and a lot of very strong players taken after him) : Luke Harangody - Hit (in that he played, but is now out of the league)
2011 - JaJuan Johnson - Miss : E'Taun Moore - Hit (though Isiah Thomas would have looked a lot nicer and Moore isn't on Boston any more)
2012 - Jared Sullinger - Wash (injured at the time and the injury cost him half the season) : Fab Melo - Miss (at this point he may still turn into something years from now) : Kris Joseph - Miss

And the only two guys that even look like rotation players have missed about half their games due to injury in Bradley and Sullinger.  The reality is Boston hasn't been able to rely on anything from the draft in 5 years, and that is never a good thing no matter your draft position.

Wow.

You're moving the goal posts so fast my head is spinning. On your own evaluation, we have 4 "misses" and 3 "hits." I'm not sure how one can call 4 "far more" than 3.

And actually you left out Bill Walker, who is a clear "hit." He has played more minutes in the NBA than every single player taken after him (and not named Semih Erden) COMBINED.

So we have 4 misses and 4 hits; I have always thought that 4 was about the same as 4, not "far more" than 4.

If you admit that it's too early to tell on 2012 then it's 4 hits and 2 misses even by your own ranking.

And your final statement that "The reality is Boston hasn't been able to rely on anything from the draft in 5 years, and that is never a good thing no matter your draft position" is itself divorced from reality.

The reality is that Boston has only drafted a few good players since 2008 because we've had terrible draft position. If your best picks are 19, 27 and 30 over a four-year span, and the rest are late in the second round, then even an excellent evaluator of talent is going to struggle to find talent.

Let me offer one other set of facts to try to make my point.

I'm going to go through every Celtics draft pick since 2008 and compare Danny's picks to the very next two players actually drafted.

I think this is informative because (a) Danny clearly could have drafted those guys if he wanted to, so this is a good benchmark of how he chose between closely ranked players, and (b) the very next two players drafted are a good measure of how everyone else in the league ranked talent on that very same day - rather than looking back after the fact and choosing for comparison the one guy in the next 15 who turned out to be good.

Here we go, with Danny's actual picks on the left and each draft's next two picks on the right:

JR Giddens          Nikola Pekovic          Walter Sharpe
Bill Walker           Malik Hairston          Richard Hendrix
Semih Erden        n/a                           n/a
Lester Hudson     Chinemelu Elonu      Robert Dozier
Avery Bradley      James Anderson       Craig Brackins
Luke Harangody  Pape Sy                    Willie Warren
Jujuan Johnson    Norris Cole              Cory Joseph
E'Twuan Moore    Chuk.. Maduabum   Targuy Ngombo

How many "hits" and "misses" do you see?

I count Giddens and JJJ as misses and everyone else as a hit. So that's 6 hits and 2 misses. Heck, I'm a close follower of the NBA and I've never heard of most of these guys.

If you want to include 2012 here it is:

Sullinger/Melo     John Jenkins       Jared Cunningham
Kris Joseph          Ognjen Kuzmic   Furkan Aldemir

What about those picks? I say "too early to tell" but if you have a way to call those clear "misses" relative to the early career performance of of Messrs. Jenkins, Cunningham, Kuzmic and Aldemir, I'm all ears.

I mean, we all want to obsess about missing out on Pekovic, or Chandler Parsons, or Jimmy Butler. I get that.

But no one ever says "Gee, isn't it great Danny drafted Avery Bradley instead of James Anderson or Craig Brackins." It's a double standard I don't get at all. You have to look at the whole picture.

Anyway I've now presented three different ways of ranking Danny as a drafter, and he looks above average on all three. If you have an alternative method, lay it out there for everyone else to read and they can form their own opinions.

[Fafnir]

Pekovic wasn't going to come over if he was a first round pick (If he was a really high one he would have I guess), salary issues. He had to be a second round pick.