Jeff Green 2014 Most Improve Player?

[freshinthehouse]

Green will probably average something along the lines of his per-36 numbers this season, only with a couple more points.

Something like 17.5-18 points, 5 rebounds, a block and a steal.

This seems about right.

[kgainez]

i say 20-25ppg, 4-7 reb, 2 assists, 1 block
as a starter, i'd be cool with that

Taking the midpoints of your ranges, that would be 22.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2 ast and 1 block per game.

Off the top of your head can you name the list of players that averaged those numbers or better in every category last year?

Top 20 players.

OK. Anyone else want to guess?

Top four or five.  I know for a fact that Melo, Durant and LeBron hit those marks, and I'm pretty sure Kobe did.  I can't think of anybody else... there are a few (like Westbrook) who scored enough but I don't think they hit the rebounding mark.

But yeah, pretty safe to say Green isn't hitting those numbers.

as a starter this year he avgd
20.1 ppg/5.9 rebounds/2.9 assists/1.1 blocks in 35.6 min
per 36 for the entire year he's at
16.6/5.1/2.0/1.1 blocks
without PP and KG we can assume he'd have a larger role....and I'm only asking him to do the things he's done already...
what are you guys talking about?

Are you also projecting him to shoot 52% from 3-point land and 52% overall, as he did in those 17 games as a starter?

If you had said 16-18 ppg and kept the other numbers the same, I'd be more inclined to agree with your projection. (He would have averaged closer to 18 as a starter if he'd had shooting percentages closer to his season averages instead of those higher numbers.)

But, to answer my earlier question, the only player to match all of those numbers last year was Durant. Lebron was close.

And even if you just focus on scoring, there were only seven players in the entire league who scored 22.5 points or more. Those players were Carmelo, Lebron, Durant, Kobe, Harden, Westbrook and Curry.

At "20-25" points per game you'd be expecting Green to not only replace Pierce, but exceed his scoring (18.6) by a substantial margin - to the point of being one of the elite scorers in the league.

Now, even if Green only averaged 17 or so ppg and kept the other numbers the same, he'd be good - an above-average starting SF, which is how he played in the second half of this past season. I'd personally be ecstatic if he could sustain that level of play.

i'm not sure what u want me to say
Harden averaged like 16 or so on the bench in OKC. He goes to Houston to become the #1 and becomes top 5 in scoring. I mean, duh...he's doing more so obviously his production and his scoring goes up.
I'm not sure why...without a KG and PP and starting from the VERY beginning of the season, Jeff Green wouldn't do the same. Is that not what this topic is about? KD, LeBron, Melo are all the #1 guys for their team. As the #3 guy, JG avg 16.6 per 36 and 20 as a starter and 20 in the playoffs. As the #3/#4 guy in OKC JG avg 16ppg at best.
I think the higher portion, the 25 is a stretch. I think 20ppg is easier for him. I mean, with the current Roster plus Rondo and Sully, who is he sharing shooting with? It would almost have to exclusively be he and Rondo, would it not?

I mean, he averages 14FGA a game...I can easily see that going up to 18 or so.
I'm not sure why this is so farfetched. Also, is he not entering his 'prime' age?

[BballTim]

  I generally don't participate in polls but for some reason I just couldn't resist clicking on the "30-40 points per game" button.

[Monkhouse]

With Rondo/Green probably both being the 1 or 2 scoring options. I can see Green shooting and taking more shots. His FGA was pretty low considering the starting minutes given.

Looking at his stats, if he shot similar numbers attempted as Paul Pierce, I can see him averaging 18-21 points on AVG.

Might have more if he can develop a left, and force the foul.

[Boris Badenov]

i say 20-25ppg, 4-7 reb, 2 assists, 1 block
as a starter, i'd be cool with that

Taking the midpoints of your ranges, that would be 22.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2 ast and 1 block per game.

Off the top of your head can you name the list of players that averaged those numbers or better in every category last year?

Top 20 players.

OK. Anyone else want to guess?

Top four or five.  I know for a fact that Melo, Durant and LeBron hit those marks, and I'm pretty sure Kobe did.  I can't think of anybody else... there are a few (like Westbrook) who scored enough but I don't think they hit the rebounding mark.

But yeah, pretty safe to say Green isn't hitting those numbers.

as a starter this year he avgd
20.1 ppg/5.9 rebounds/2.9 assists/1.1 blocks in 35.6 min
per 36 for the entire year he's at
16.6/5.1/2.0/1.1 blocks
without PP and KG we can assume he'd have a larger role....and I'm only asking him to do the things he's done already...
what are you guys talking about?

Are you also projecting him to shoot 52% from 3-point land and 52% overall, as he did in those 17 games as a starter?

If you had said 16-18 ppg and kept the other numbers the same, I'd be more inclined to agree with your projection. (He would have averaged closer to 18 as a starter if he'd had shooting percentages closer to his season averages instead of those higher numbers.)

But, to answer my earlier question, the only player to match all of those numbers last year was Durant. Lebron was close.

And even if you just focus on scoring, there were only seven players in the entire league who scored 22.5 points or more. Those players were Carmelo, Lebron, Durant, Kobe, Harden, Westbrook and Curry.

At "20-25" points per game you'd be expecting Green to not only replace Pierce, but exceed his scoring (18.6) by a substantial margin - to the point of being one of the elite scorers in the league.

Now, even if Green only averaged 17 or so ppg and kept the other numbers the same, he'd be good - an above-average starting SF, which is how he played in the second half of this past season. I'd personally be ecstatic if he could sustain that level of play.

i'm not sure what u want me to say
Harden averaged like 16 or so on the bench in OKC. He goes to Houston to become the #1 and becomes top 5 in scoring. I mean, duh...he's doing more so obviously his production and his scoring goes up.
I'm not sure why...without a KG and PP and starting from the VERY beginning of the season, Jeff Green wouldn't do the same. Is that not what this topic is about? KD, LeBron, Melo are all the #1 guys for their team. As the #3 guy, JG avg 16.6 per 36 and 20 as a starter and 20 in the playoffs. As the #3/#4 guy in OKC JG avg 16ppg at best.
I think the higher portion, the 25 is a stretch. I think 20ppg is easier for him. I mean, with the current Roster plus Rondo and Sully, who is he sharing shooting with? It would almost have to exclusively be he and Rondo, would it not?

I mean, he averages 14FGA a game...I can easily see that going up to 18 or so.
I'm not sure why this is so farfetched. Also, is he not entering his 'prime' age?

I'm saying something pretty simple: if you look at what you are really saying (and I'm pretty much using your own words here), you believe that Jeff Green will be a scorer on par with Harden, Lebron, KD and Carmelo next year. If you're comfortable with that, then so be it. It's your opinion, not mine.

You keep mentioning Harden but he was averaging 16ppg in lower minutes. His projected scoring based on that 16ppg in 2012 was, at 2013 minutes and the same scoring rate, over 20 already.

But (much) more important Harden left a team with 2 of the top 10 volume shooters in the league by usage rate, including the PG who shoots more often than any other by a substantial margin. and he went to a team where nobody else was in the top 50 of usage rate. So, expecting an increase in his scoring is of course reasonable.

You're predicting an equal or bigger increase for Green, in a situation that doesn't compare at all. If you remove KG, in all likelihood you will replace him with someone who shoots almost as much; KG is not a volume shooter.

So then you are asking whether replacing Pierce, playing with pretty similar guys in terms of usage compared to this year, he will exceed Paul's shooting rate by a substantial margin. Pierce averaged 14FGA per game last year. So, you are saying Green will take 30% more shots than Pierce in the offense next year, to get to 18 (which even then would put him at around 20 ppg - the minimum of your range). And 18 FGA is a TON. Westbrook averaged 18.7. Durant averaged 17.7. Harden averaged 17.1.

You mention that KD and Carmelo are #1 guys. True. But there are plenty of other #1 guys who don't score anywhere near what they do.

I mean, KD and Carmelo each scored 26 and 22 ppg in their freshmen years in college. Green scored 13. Bringing up those guys hurts your case, in my opinion.

Anyway you can believe what you want to believe, I'm not even really trying to talk you out of it. I'm just trying to clarify the difference of opinion.

[krook]

With Rondo/Green probably both being the 1 or 2 scoring options. I can see Green shooting and taking more shots. His FGA was pretty low considering the starting minutes given.

Looking at his stats, if he shot similar numbers attempted as Paul Pierce, I can see him averaging 18-21 points on AVG.

Might have more if he can develop a left, and force the foul.

so you expect green to score 18 to 21 points a game?

[Anomandaris]

either 17-19 points a game or if one or both of PP/KG are gone then for sure 20+ PPG

[Monkhouse]

With Rondo/Green probably both being the 1 or 2 scoring options. I can see Green shooting and taking more shots. His FGA was pretty low considering the starting minutes given.

Looking at his stats, if he shot similar numbers attempted as Paul Pierce, I can see him averaging 18-21 points on AVG.

Might have more if he can develop a left, and force the foul.

so you expect green to score 18 to 21 points a game?

Ummm... why not?

I expect him to average at least 18 points, and more...

People give Jeff Green a lot of crap, but in the long run, the only consistent one who was averaging fringe all star numbers was Green. Besides KG/Paul Pierce averaging amazing numbers, Green was the only factor in the playoffs who kept us in. Had Terry came in the first two games with lights out offense, then we might've won. But alas, its just a pipe dream.

[ianboyextreme]

i say 20-25ppg, 4-7 reb, 2 assists, 1 block
as a starter, i'd be cool with that

Taking the midpoints of your ranges, that would be 22.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2 ast and 1 block per game.

Off the top of your head can you name the list of players that averaged those numbers or better in every category last year?

Well in the op's defense (despite the vague range) how many players can actually do what Jeff Green does? Some of his skills are his alone. I very much expect him to average over 20 next year. I would say 21-22 ppg.

[RJ87]

Realistically, I think he can do 17.5ppg, 5.5rpg, 2apg, 1 block and 1 steal in 36 mins.. I'd be extremely happy with that production from him.

Can he crack 20ppg? Idk. But if Paul isn't here, Jeff is gonna draw a lot of defensive pressure. And he still can't go left and lacks a pull up jumper.

[kgainez]

  I generally don't participate in polls but for some reason I just couldn't resist clicking on the "30-40 points per game" button.

LOLOL

[kgainez]

i say 20-25ppg, 4-7 reb, 2 assists, 1 block
as a starter, i'd be cool with that

Taking the midpoints of your ranges, that would be 22.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2 ast and 1 block per game.

Off the top of your head can you name the list of players that averaged those numbers or better in every category last year?

Top 20 players.

OK. Anyone else want to guess?

Top four or five.  I know for a fact that Melo, Durant and LeBron hit those marks, and I'm pretty sure Kobe did.  I can't think of anybody else... there are a few (like Westbrook) who scored enough but I don't think they hit the rebounding mark.

But yeah, pretty safe to say Green isn't hitting those numbers.

as a starter this year he avgd
20.1 ppg/5.9 rebounds/2.9 assists/1.1 blocks in 35.6 min
per 36 for the entire year he's at
16.6/5.1/2.0/1.1 blocks
without PP and KG we can assume he'd have a larger role....and I'm only asking him to do the things he's done already...
what are you guys talking about?

Are you also projecting him to shoot 52% from 3-point land and 52% overall, as he did in those 17 games as a starter?

If you had said 16-18 ppg and kept the other numbers the same, I'd be more inclined to agree with your projection. (He would have averaged closer to 18 as a starter if he'd had shooting percentages closer to his season averages instead of those higher numbers.)

But, to answer my earlier question, the only player to match all of those numbers last year was Durant. Lebron was close.

And even if you just focus on scoring, there were only seven players in the entire league who scored 22.5 points or more. Those players were Carmelo, Lebron, Durant, Kobe, Harden, Westbrook and Curry.

At "20-25" points per game you'd be expecting Green to not only replace Pierce, but exceed his scoring (18.6) by a substantial margin - to the point of being one of the elite scorers in the league.

Now, even if Green only averaged 17 or so ppg and kept the other numbers the same, he'd be good - an above-average starting SF, which is how he played in the second half of this past season. I'd personally be ecstatic if he could sustain that level of play.

i'm not sure what u want me to say
Harden averaged like 16 or so on the bench in OKC. He goes to Houston to become the #1 and becomes top 5 in scoring. I mean, duh...he's doing more so obviously his production and his scoring goes up.
I'm not sure why...without a KG and PP and starting from the VERY beginning of the season, Jeff Green wouldn't do the same. Is that not what this topic is about? KD, LeBron, Melo are all the #1 guys for their team. As the #3 guy, JG avg 16.6 per 36 and 20 as a starter and 20 in the playoffs. As the #3/#4 guy in OKC JG avg 16ppg at best.
I think the higher portion, the 25 is a stretch. I think 20ppg is easier for him. I mean, with the current Roster plus Rondo and Sully, who is he sharing shooting with? It would almost have to exclusively be he and Rondo, would it not?

I mean, he averages 14FGA a game...I can easily see that going up to 18 or so.
I'm not sure why this is so farfetched. Also, is he not entering his 'prime' age?

I'm saying something pretty simple: if you look at what you are really saying (and I'm pretty much using your own words here), you believe that Jeff Green will be a scorer on par with Harden, Lebron, KD and Carmelo next year. If you're comfortable with that, then so be it. It's your opinion, not mine.

You keep mentioning Harden but he was averaging 16ppg in lower minutes. His projected scoring based on that 16ppg in 2012 was, at 2013 minutes and the same scoring rate, over 20 already.

But (much) more important Harden left a team with 2 of the top 10 volume shooters in the league by usage rate, including the PG who shoots more often than any other by a substantial margin. and he went to a team where nobody else was in the top 50 of usage rate. So, expecting an increase in his scoring is of course reasonable.

You're predicting an equal or bigger increase for Green, in a situation that doesn't compare at all. If you remove KG, in all likelihood you will replace him with someone who shoots almost as much; KG is not a volume shooter.

So then you are asking whether replacing Pierce, playing with pretty similar guys in terms of usage compared to this year, he will exceed Paul's shooting rate by a substantial margin. Pierce averaged 14FGA per game last year. So, you are saying Green will take 30% more shots than Pierce in the offense next year, to get to 18 (which even then would put him at around 20 ppg - the minimum of your range). And 18 FGA is a TON. Westbrook averaged 18.7. Durant averaged 17.7. Harden averaged 17.1.

You mention that KD and Carmelo are #1 guys. True. But there are plenty of other #1 guys who don't score anywhere near what they do.

I mean, KD and Carmelo each scored 26 and 22 ppg in their freshmen years in college. Green scored 13. Bringing up those guys hurts your case, in my opinion.

Anyway you can believe what you want to believe, I'm not even really trying to talk you out of it. I'm just trying to clarify the difference of opinion.

i think bringing up KD and Melo on 'hurts' my point because these guys are #1 options and have been #1 options. Perhaps, instead of Harden, I can use someone like Paul George. We're comparing Jeff to guys who are #1 options. And quite frankly, with some development, I really see no reason why Jeff Green can't be a #1 option.

For example, JG can go left, he just doesn't trust it. And someone else said he needs to have an ability to draw the foul...ummmm...isn't that kind of what he does?

At any rate, I see what you're saying and I agree with it sort of. I don't see any reason why he shouldn't avg AT LEAST 18ppg. But I think with KG/PP gone, he can easily get 20+. I guess that's based on what he did this year and what I expect him to do next year.

If you think about it and ASSUME similar lineups, Jeff Green would end up being our #2 guy..maybe even #1 on nights when Rondo isn't on his offensive game. You're asking me to copy and paste stats from the past into the future, rather than predict/guess it with other circumstances.

Lots of people are saying 18ishppg, 5reb, 2 ast, 1block -- which is fair...I just think Jeff could easily score 2-7 more ppgs.

[CelticConcourse]

30-40 points a game.

Because what the heck??? 30ppg? 

[CelticConcourse]

If Paul Pierce comes back as a backup SF, how can Green win Sixth Man of the Year???

 

[CelticConcourse]

You don't have what I expect for him. Some night's he'll put up big numbers and other nights he'll be a soft joke.

That's unfair.  He was arguably our most consistent player post all-star...

29 games:   33.5 minutes, 17.3 points, 5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1 steal, 1.1 block 49%/44%/80%

6 Playoff games: 43.2 minutes, 20.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.3 steal, 0.7 blocks 44%/46%/84% 

He's what I always said he was... solid scorer and fringe star who can average 16-19 points if given the minutes and touches.  Solid starter, but will never be an all-star.  He's been this pretty much his entire career... all that changes is his role.  These are pretty much the same numbers he put up in Seattle/OKC in the rare games Durant missed (but he'd usually average more boards)

This was my comments on Jeff Green in Feb 2011:

I think Jeff Green is a stud.  I think he's a stud getting overshadowed by a couple phenoms in OKC.  Green is a SF who has been forced to play PF in OKC.  I was curious how he's produced in games when Durant was out with injuries.  My hunch was that he would have produced some big numbers.  Unfortunately, Durant doesn't miss a ton of games.  In the last 3 years since Durant has been a "star", there has only been 7 games in which Jeff Green got to play without him.     

Jeff Green's stats:


08-09 season:

L 11/12/08 - 25 points, 10 rebounds, (7-18 shooting)
L 2/27/09 - 28 points, 12 rebounds, (9-20 shooting)
W 2/28/09 - 27 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists (8-20 shooting)
W 3/10/09 - 22 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists (6-13 shooting)
L 3/11/09 - 19 points, 7 rebounds (5-12 shooting)
 

10-11 season:
W 12/1/10 -  37 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists (12-21 shooting)
L 12/3/10 - 17 points, 4 rebounds, 7 assists (6-14 shooting)


So in 7 games he's managed to average 25 points, 7.7 rebounds 45% shooting ... Worth noting?

I think the guy ends up being a fringe all-star in the post-"Big 3" lotto Celtics era.

Man, I like that quote you brought up from '11... it makes a lot of sense. I too believe that Green can average 16-19ppg without Pierce or Garnett, and at best 24 points per game (yes, that would be godly).

The chances of him actually averaging 24 a game are very low, but he definitely possesses the abilities to be a top-2 player on a lottery team. Green is a scorer

Dream stats: 24/6/3/2/1

[if you want to see what I really think about Green, all you need to do is click my signature xD]