Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up

[BballTim]

I love KG and PP but I do not want another year of mediocre to prolong our chance at returning to greatness.

Get your tanking caps on..it is going to be a long year next year.

  Unless you think that the Celts are going to win the 2014 draft then not tanking next year doesn't slow our return to greatness.

[wdleehi]

How did the last leaded, do bad, draft work for the Celtics? 



Thank goodness two players like Ray and KG wanted out of their teams so bad.

[Moranis]

In the post-MJ era, There's been only two teams with their original Top 5 picks to win titles, the Spurs and Wade's Heat.  Both sides are correct.  You usually need franchise superstars to win titles, and you can get those guys by either drafting them high, getting lucky with picks 6-15, or by using assets to trade for them, like the Cs and Lakers did with KG and Gasol. 

With this Celtics team, blowing it up is very unattractive to me.  What are the odds of getting the #1 pick in the 2014 draft to get Wiggins? If KG, PP and Doc all move on, a Rondo led team will win at least 30 games, giving the Cs a 3% or worst chance at the top pick.  A full tank job and the worst record is a 1 in 4 chance.

Theoretically, if the Cs tank and get Wiggins, how long will it take for a Wiggins, Rondo, Green, Sullinger core take to contend?  Probably at least a half decade.  To me, retooling is a better option.   

You think if both KG and Pierce are gone and replaced with whoever about 8 million in cap room can buy, the 16th pick in the draft and whoever they can get in a trade for Terry, Lee and Bass, that the Celtics going to win At LEAST 30 games on the will of Rondo?  I don't see it.  They're are going to be horrible defensively and unless Pierce and Garnett were the ones holding this club back offensively, I can't see them jumping out of the 20s in offensive efficiency either.  I'm not putting a bottom on a team that could be ranked in the 20s in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

In a projected loaded draft, it's also not only about the no.1 pick.  That's the luxury of it, that it's not all about one pick.  It's not all for naught if the Celtics "only" get the fifth pick in the draft, possibly.

Thing is, after about the 4th or 5th pick next year, the next pick through about the 20th will all be about the same talent level and you probably have an equal chance to get a great player.

So why tank? The C's had the worst record in 1996 and a 33% chance at the #1 pick as they owned someone else's pick that was also in the lottery. They ended up with picks 3 and 6. In 2007 they had the second best chance at the #1 pick and ended up getting the 5th pick.

Tanking guarantees nothing in the top 3. The percentages are much, much higher that a team with the worst record ends up with pick #4 than a top 3 pick.

My reason to tank is two fold.  First, would be to get multiple picks in that draft.  I think that to really do that, you have to trade Rondo, but I'm ok with that.  Second, next years teams is going to look an awful lot like this years team and there is no reason for an old team to barely make the playoffs and then lose in the first round. 

My rooting philosophy, which I've put on here a lot.  Is that if you are not realistically competing for a title or a young team on the way up then you are just wasting time and delaying the inevitable. 

Boston is at that point.  This isn't a young team on the way up and it isn't a team that can realistically compete for a title.  There is no point in doing the status quo, it just delays the inevitable and if you can get multiple picks in what everyone is calling the best draft in a decade, then you just have to do it.  Next year is the year to rebuild in as that is the year where you could really get a number of assets that could form the basis for the next championship team.

  No offense, but haven't you been saying Boston's at that point since 2009 or so? Sorry if it wasn't you, but a pretty healthy number of people have.

No just last year and this year and I was wrong about last year as KG had far more left in him than I thought.  I think he showed this year he really is basically done as a top tier player.  Also, if Horford and Rose aren't injured, Boston's playoffs last year might have looked a lot different, but as is I enjoyed the ride.   

[Moranis]

How did the last leaded, do bad, draft work for the Celtics? 



Thank goodness two players like Ray and KG wanted out of their teams so bad.

we traded the pick for Ray Allen.  I think that worked out quite well actually.

[nickagneta]

How did the last leaded, do bad, draft work for the Celtics? 



Thank goodness two players like Ray and KG wanted out of their teams so bad.

we traded the pick for Ray Allen.  I think that worked out quite well actually.

Come on. You know what he meant. We didn't get Oden or Durant.

[KGs Knee]

How did the last leaded, do bad, draft work for the Celtics? 



Thank goodness two players like Ray and KG wanted out of their teams so bad.

we traded the pick for Ray Allen.  I think that worked out quite well actually.

Come on. You know what he meant. We didn't get Oden or Durant.

Thank God we didn't get Oden.

Exhibit 'A' of how tanking can go wrong.

[Moranis]

How did the last leaded, do bad, draft work for the Celtics? 



Thank goodness two players like Ray and KG wanted out of their teams so bad.

we traded the pick for Ray Allen.  I think that worked out quite well actually.

Come on. You know what he meant. We didn't get Oden or Durant.

But, without a top 5 pick, we don't make that trade.  Sometimes tanking is really just about acquiring assets to use in trades.  Boston traded the 5th pick (Jeff Green), a young player whose welcome was worn out (West), a 2nd rounder (Plasted), and a salary filler (Wally) for Ray Allen and Glen Davis.  I'd say that tanking worked out quite well in that case.

[nickagneta]

Exhibit B in tanking...the Minnesota Timberwolves. McHale had that team tank like heck that year(as did about 13 other teams) for Oden and Durant. They got the 7th pick. 2 bad years later David Kahn took over and tanked or just mismanaged that team. But since tanking in 2007 for that pick here are the records of those Timberpuppies teams since:

2006-07 32-50
2007-08 22-60
2008-09 24-58
2009-10 15-67
2010-11 17-65
2011-12 26-40
2012-13 31-51

They have arguably been the worst franchise in the history of the NBA over any 7 year period. And where are they now?

I don't believe they have a true franchise superstar that can lead a team to the playoffs. They never got a #1 pick even though they had the best chance at a number one pick for 4 years in a row. And, they still suck.

There is so much evidence that tanking doesn't work I just don't understand why anyone would do it unless bad luck while trying to get good delivers you a bad year so at some point after the All-Star game you pull your stars and tank. But other than that. Tanking is a poor professional management strategy for going forward as a franchise.

[BballTim]

How did the last leaded, do bad, draft work for the Celtics? 



Thank goodness two players like Ray and KG wanted out of their teams so bad.

we traded the pick for Ray Allen.  I think that worked out quite well actually.

Come on. You know what he meant. We didn't get Oden or Durant.

But, without a top 5 pick, we don't make that trade.  Sometimes tanking is really just about acquiring assets to use in trades.  Boston traded the 5th pick (Jeff Green), a young player whose welcome was worn out (West), a 2nd rounder (Plasted), and a salary filler (Wally) for Ray Allen and Glen Davis.  I'd say that tanking worked out quite well in that case.

  But that trade had limited value without us having enough assets to trade for KG and keep PP/RR/KP.

[Moranis]

How did the last leaded, do bad, draft work for the Celtics? 



Thank goodness two players like Ray and KG wanted out of their teams so bad.

we traded the pick for Ray Allen.  I think that worked out quite well actually.

Come on. You know what he meant. We didn't get Oden or Durant.

But, without a top 5 pick, we don't make that trade.  Sometimes tanking is really just about acquiring assets to use in trades.  Boston traded the 5th pick (Jeff Green), a young player whose welcome was worn out (West), a 2nd rounder (Plasted), and a salary filler (Wally) for Ray Allen and Glen Davis.  I'd say that tanking worked out quite well in that case.

  But that trade had limited value without us having enough assets to trade for KG and keep PP/RR/KP.

A team with Jefferson, PP, RA, and Rondo as well as Gomes, Telfair, G. Green, etc. would have been a pretty darn good team, plus we still would have had Ratliff's big deal.  Obviously KG got us the 2008 title, but who is to say Boston wouldn't have had multiple titles by not making that move.  You just don't know with these things.

[Spicoli]

I agree with tanking for the possibility of the number 1 pick, but at the same time i don't want to be bored to death watching the team. At the end of the day, basketball is entertainment and i want to be entertained watching these guys play. I enjoy watching Jeff Green and Jared Sullinger, so as long as they are both on the roster i won't mind moving everyone else for draft picks.

[wdleehi]

So in conclusion, the Celtics need to have multiple assets and of course a player of Pierce's status along with two amazing talents wanting to be traded?


That happens every year in the NBA. 

[Yoki_IsTheName]

So in conclusion, the Celtics need to have multiple assets and of course a player of Pierce's status along with two amazing talents wanting to be traded?


That happens every year in the NBA.

We don't have to tank, we can just move up the draft and pick Shabbazz Muhammad.

His scoring abilities is at an NBA level already and would grow. He has red flags but are fixable with the locker room leadership that we have. He has the tools athletically to be a very good defender if we get his mindset right. And a very competitive nature.

And, if it doesnt work for us (his and Rondo's competitiveness MAY BE volatile) he's still a talented rookie that could get a return.

We don't have to tank, just get this guy. All Star potential, and we can get a decent return if he doesnt pan out for us.

[BballTim]

How did the last leaded, do bad, draft work for the Celtics? 



Thank goodness two players like Ray and KG wanted out of their teams so bad.

we traded the pick for Ray Allen.  I think that worked out quite well actually.

Come on. You know what he meant. We didn't get Oden or Durant.

But, without a top 5 pick, we don't make that trade.  Sometimes tanking is really just about acquiring assets to use in trades.  Boston traded the 5th pick (Jeff Green), a young player whose welcome was worn out (West), a 2nd rounder (Plasted), and a salary filler (Wally) for Ray Allen and Glen Davis.  I'd say that tanking worked out quite well in that case.

  But that trade had limited value without us having enough assets to trade for KG and keep PP/RR/KP.

A team with Jefferson, PP, RA, and Rondo as well as Gomes, Telfair, G. Green, etc. would have been a pretty darn good team, plus we still would have had Ratliff's big deal.  Obviously KG got us the 2008 title, but who is to say Boston wouldn't have had multiple titles by not making that move.  You just don't know with these things.

  I don't disagree with that, I'm just pointing out that in terms of young (or at least not too old) assets, if you compare this team to the 2007 team we're pretty much a Big Al and Perk away from where we were.

[Moranis]

How did the last leaded, do bad, draft work for the Celtics? 



Thank goodness two players like Ray and KG wanted out of their teams so bad.

we traded the pick for Ray Allen.  I think that worked out quite well actually.

Come on. You know what he meant. We didn't get Oden or Durant.

But, without a top 5 pick, we don't make that trade.  Sometimes tanking is really just about acquiring assets to use in trades.  Boston traded the 5th pick (Jeff Green), a young player whose welcome was worn out (West), a 2nd rounder (Plasted), and a salary filler (Wally) for Ray Allen and Glen Davis.  I'd say that tanking worked out quite well in that case.

  But that trade had limited value without us having enough assets to trade for KG and keep PP/RR/KP.

A team with Jefferson, PP, RA, and Rondo as well as Gomes, Telfair, G. Green, etc. would have been a pretty darn good team, plus we still would have had Ratliff's big deal.  Obviously KG got us the 2008 title, but who is to say Boston wouldn't have had multiple titles by not making that move.  You just don't know with these things.

  I don't disagree with that, I'm just pointing out that in terms of young (or at least not too old) assets, if you compare this team to the 2007 team we're pretty much a Big Al and Perk away from where we were.

yeah but a Big Al isn't easy to come by. young 20/10 PF/C's don't just grow on trees.