Author Topic: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up  (Read 17082 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #45 on: May 05, 2013, 09:47:24 AM »

Offline nickagneta

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48121
  • Tommy Points: 8800
  • President of Jaylen Brown Fan Club


List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

... Are you seeing a pattern here???


Rajon Rondo. Pick #22
Tony Parker. Pick #28
Brook Lopez. Pick #10
Kobe Bryant. Pick #13
Paul Pierce. Pick #10
Dirk Nowitzki. Pick #9
Paul George Pick #10
Josh Smith. Pick #17
David Lee. Pick #30.
Jrue Holiday. Pick #17
JR Smith. Pick #18
Marc Gasol. Pick #18
Zach Randolph. Pick #19
Manu Ginobilli. Pick #28

I could go on and on.

Yeah? I am not seeing a pattern.
You aren't? 

Let me fix your list:

Kobe Bryant. Pick #13
Dirk Nowitzki. Pick #9

Only those two players ever had enough talent to be the centerpiece of a championship team.   I love PIerce, but he was never a top 5 franchise player... that was KG.   Kobe's low draft position is understandable due to him being taken out of High School.  Dirk is the aberration.

YOu aren't going to win this argument and you know it.  Championships are built around Phenom talent. 

Look at a least of the names title teams were built around.

Bron - #1 pick
Dirk - #10 pick
Kobe - #13 pick Pau Gasol - #3 pick
KG - #5 pick
Wade - #5 pick
Duncan - #1 pick
Billups - #3 pick/Sheed - #4 pick/ Rip - #7 pick
Shaq - #1 pick
Hakeem - #1 pick
Jordan - #3 pick
Isiah Thomas - #2 pick
Magic Johnson - #1 pick
Larry Bird - #6 pick* (not really a #6 pick... the rules allowed Red to take him a year before he came out of College... no way he goes #6 otherwise)
Kareem - #1 pick
...


Do you really want to argue this?  To win a title you almost always need to have a superstar player... and superstar players are almost always picked in the top 5.   

You don't even get a shot at a player like that by picking in the middle of the 1st round.  You might add a nice piece... but unless you have that superstar, you aren't a contender.


Take a look at the 96 names that Bill Simmons ranks in his "Hall of Fame Player Pyramid"  http://www.bareknucks.com/bill-simmons96-greatest-nba-players-ever ... The VAST majority were taken within the first 5 picks of the draft.
And how many of those picks won a ring with the team that drafted them?

LeBron...nope.
Kobe...nope
Gasol...nope
KG...hope
Shaq...nope
Billups...nope
Sheed...nope(BTW I can NOT believe that you list these guys as centerpieces of a championship and Pierce not. The notion is absurd.)

Half your guys listed didn't win a ring with the teams that drafted them. So there are obviously other ways to obtain franchise talent without tanking for a pick and possibly not coming up with one(see 1996 and 2007). And even if you get one, by the time they are good enough to win you a title, they may not even be on your team.

19 year old stars don't win rings. 6-12 year veteran stars do.

We have a better chance at getting a franchise star by waiting for these young studs to be disgusted playing in Minnesota or Charlotte or Detroit or Orlando and then sign them when they become free agents.

This seems to be a much more viable option for getting a star than tanking to be awful, trying to win a lottery, then waiting 5-6 years developing your star and hoping you can put enough other stars around him after he develops to be able to win a ring.

Really think the faster way to get back to winning titles is through trades and free agency. The Celtics are one of those teams that can afford to pay some tax almost all the time. Very few teams can say that. Better to use that strength than to tank and have 1996 and 2007 happen again.

EDIT: Also, the players on that list. There are exactly two of them(Dirk, Hakeem) who won rings without another 2 or 3 superstars on their team

Duncan -Parker, Robinson, Ginobilli
Shaq - Kobe, Wade
Kobe - Shaq, Gasol, Bynum
KG - Pierce, Allen
Jordan - Pippen, Rodman
Magic - Kareem, Worthy
Kareem - Magic, Worthy
Bird - McHale, Parish, Johnson

I won't list Billups and Sheed here because the notion they were ever franchise players is ridiculous. It fairly common knowledge that their ring is the exception to the superstar rule of winning titles..
« Last Edit: May 05, 2013, 09:56:08 AM by nickagneta »

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #46 on: May 05, 2013, 10:14:55 AM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11688
  • Tommy Points: 1469
Lebron James wasn't drafted by the Heat, Chauncey Billups (that all time legendary franchise player) wasn't drafted by the Pistons, Kevin Garnett wasn't drafted by the Celtics, Shaquille O'Neal wasn't drafted by the Lakers, Shaquille O'Neal wasn't drafted by the Heat, Pau Gasol wasn't drafted by the Lakers, Dirk Nowitzki was drafted 9th by Dallas, Kobe Bryant was drafted 13th by the Lakers, Tony Parker was drafted 128th by the Spurs.

Your hard and fast rule about a team needing to tank and draft a transcendent player to ever have a shot at an NBA title seems to have more aberrations than it has championship teams that fit your rule. 

I guess you can alway fall back on Tim Duncan as the player that fits your absolute rule of how champions are built.  Or, you can rely on your vast mountains of evidence from back in the olden days.  Or, you can try to turn LaMarcus Aldridge, John Wall, and Al Horford into players that are destined to be all time greats based solely on their respective draft positions. 

Or, you can admit that your theory is highly flawed and outdated. 

Tanking is not the way to rebuild this team into a contender.  Somewhere in the back of your mind you probably know this, though.
You bring up good points.

So lets cross our fingers Kevin Durant, Andrew wiggins, LeBron James, Dwight Howard or Chris Paul or some other franchise player ends up in Boston through some miracle that doesn't involve the draft.  Fair enough. 

Day 1 of the Kevin Durant watch is on.  Here's hoping we get him before he's 32 years old.

Start danging Rondo as trade bait... we're desperately need a franchise player if we're ever going to contend.

As you point out, "franchise players" are indeed very rare.  Off your above list, I would say that only Lebron James and probably Kevin Durant definitively fit that category.  Andre Wiggins sure seems to have a lot of potential, but it can't be said with any level of certainty of a kid who's still eighteen years old and in High School that he's sure to be an all-time NBA great. 

Rondo isn't in the category of Lebron James, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, or Michael Jordan.  Chances are that he'll never reach that rarefied air, but he's the closest thing we've got, and he's a very good player.  There's disagreement on this, but I would say that he's a top 15 to 20 player in the league today. 

Getting rid of a player of his talent to try to luck into the type of player that comes around maybe two or three times a decade through a lottery system is an absurdly bad plan.  It's not even really a plan at all.  Considering the rarity of these franchise type players, you'd have to admit that the chances of tanking for one and actually getting one are much lower than the chances of tanking for one and never finding that guy. 

If Danny were to follow your tanking plan, we won't end up in the perpetual mediocrity that so many seem to think is the worst place to be in basketball like, say, the Hawks, the Nuggets or the Bulls.  There's a much better chance of ending up in perpetual terribleness like the Bobcats or the Wizards or the Kings.

Now, I'm not going to sit here and pretend that I have the exact blueprint for how to get back to contender status as quickly as possible (I doubt even Danny Ainge has that blueprint),   

What I do suggest, though, is keeping our best assets, of which Rajon Rondo is obviously the best, trying to add assets to that group, trying to mold them into a team that is competitive, and then, when the opportunity arises to jump on an opportunity to make the team even better through trades or free agency, to do so. 

There are no guarantees that you'll be a contender in this league.  That's for sure, but I don't want to see the General Manager of the team that I love decide that because there are no guarantees of titles that racing to the bottom of the league as fast as possible is the best direction to go for the future of the franchise. 

That would represent the absolutely height of folly and mismanagement.  Luckily, I doubt that Ainge's idea of how to try to get back in contention bears any resemblance to the one that you have laid out. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #47 on: May 05, 2013, 10:35:47 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

  • NCE
  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11833
  • Tommy Points: 950
If 2014 was considered to be a weak draft class, would that change some people's minds about jettisoning KG and PP in an effort to tank?  What if it was an average draft class?
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #48 on: May 05, 2013, 04:13:27 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6162
  • Tommy Points: 383
  • Jeff Green
List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

Wait, so you're saying it's better to draft earlier than later?  ::) ::) ::) ::)

Damian Lillard - #6 pick
Paul George - #10 pick
Stephen Curry - #7 pick
Jrue Holiday - #17 pick
Eric Gordon - #7 pick
Brook Lopez - #10 pick
Roy Hibbert - #17 pick
Serge Ibaka - #24 pick
Joakim Noah - #9 pick
Marc Gasol - #48 pick
Brandon Roy - #6 pick
Rajon Rondo - #21 pick
Andrew Bynum - #10 pick
David Lee - #30 pick
Amar'e Stoudemire - #9 pick
Joe Johnson - #10 pick
Zach Randolph - #19 pick
Tony Parker - #28 pick
Gilbert Arenas - #30 pick
Dirk Nowitzki - #9 pick
Paul Pierce - #10 pick
Tracy McGrady - #9 pick
Kobe Bryant - #13 pick
Peja Stojakovic - #14 pick
Steve Nash - #15 pick
Jermaine O'Neal - #17 pick
Latrell Sprewell - #24 pick
Tim Hardaway - #14 pick
Shawn Kemp - #17 pick
Rod Strickland - #19 pick
Kevin Johnson - #7 pick
Reggie Miller - #11 pick
Chris Mullin - #7 pick
John Stockton - #16 pick
Dale Ellis - #9 pick
Clyde Drexler - #14 pick
Larry Bird - #6 pick
Bernard King - #7 pick
Adrian Dantley - #6 pick
Robert Parish - #8 pick
Alex English - #23 pick
Dennis Johnson - #29 pick
Jamaal Wilkes - #11 pick
George Gervin - #40 pick
Julius Erving - #12 pick
Artis Gilmore - #117 pick
Calvin Murphy - #18 pick
Nate Archibald - #19 pick
Dan Issel - #122 pick
Jo Jo White - #9 pick
Mel Daniels - #9 pick
Willis Reed - #8 pick
Gus Johnson - #10 pick
John Havlicek - #7 pick
Chet Walker - #12 pick
Lenny Wilkens - #9 pick
Hal Greer - #13 pick
Sam Jones - #8 pick
K.C. Jones - #13 pick
Jack Twyman - #8 pick
Bill Sharman - #16 pick
Bobby Wazner - #10 pick
Why do i need to keep arguing the same thing...

Dale Ellis and Latrell Sprewell?...  are you just listing the names of random allstars ?

You're completely missing my point.  Being an all-star is one thing.  Being the centerpiece of a championship team is a whole nother thing.   This sport like no other sport is dominated by dominating players.  You need a superstar to contend.  Showing me that Latrell Sprewell was picked #24 is irrelevant.  Do you want to build the Celtics around the talents of the next Latrell Sprewell?  Cool... welcome to perpetual mediocrity.  I personally strive to be a contender... and generally the only way you become a contender in this league is by having one of the league's top 5 players.  And generally those guys are picked within the first 5 picks of the draft.

Sorry man that's just the way it is.  You can throw together a scrappy playoff team built around the talents of Rod Strickland and Peja Stojakovic... and you can sit back and cheer while your team is dominated by the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Andrew Wiggins in the playoffs.   Go ahead and slap together a team built around Josh Smith, Rajon Rondo and some late 1st rounder (Sully) ... welcome to the world of also-rans.

You'd think a team that won titles on the heels of great men like Bill Russell, Dave Cowens, Larry Bird and Kevin Garnett would understand the importance of having a superstar, but apparently many people here have this perception that you can win a title with the likes of Pooh Richardson.  You must be following a different league than I am.  I'm sorry I'm the one who has to break it to you... I thought this was common knowledge... I guess you're all just hanging around waiting for Paul George to prove 50+ years of NBA history wrong. 

How many guys in your arbitrary list were ever the centerpiece of a championship team?  That list gets pretty short... and it heavily favors guys picked within the first 5 picks of the draft.  There might be an aberration here or there from some trend-setters (Kobe = coming out of high school)/ (Dirk = coming out of Europe)... but ultimately we spot these guys early and they are snagged within the first 5 picks.   

TANK... TANK.... TANK....  The alternative seems lame... Scrapping together a bleh playoff team during Rondo's prime that never wins squat... No thanks.  I want a perpetual contender.

Let's go back to your list, then.

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

Those are all the guys you'd say that make teams perpetual contenders? How many of those have actually won rings, as the centerpiece of their team?
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

[Kevin Garnett]
"I've always said J. Green is going to be one of the best players to ever play this game"

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #49 on: May 05, 2013, 05:28:52 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11688
  • Tommy Points: 1469
Unless we trade Rondo, Green, Bradley, and Sully, we will be in no position to get wiggins.

I do think we should blow the rest of the team up though
Trade Green and Rondo then.

Try to get expiring contracts and draft picks for them (higher the better)

Build around cap space, youth and draft picks (top 5 picks... not late lotto picks).

See my post here for my full realistic blueprint on building a dynasty:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=64634.msg1463478#msg1463478

  You seem to have found a realistic way to get to the bottom, that's the easy part. If that's all it took to build a dynasty then the Clips and the Kings and the Wizards would be perennial contenders.
I'm not a short-sighted fan.  You don't build a contender by perpetually making the playoffs with the 7th or 8th seed.


Fact:  Drafting in the Top 5 gives you by far a better opportunity to land a franchise player.   Regardless of what happens next season, if KG retires... this team is going to miss the playoffs.   The thing is, we might be a late lotto team if we hang onto Rondo and Green.  Yes, you can luck into allstars picking in the late lotto... but if you want a franchise player, you're gon need to be picking in the top 5.

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

... Are you seeing a pattern here???

Slapping together a mediocre team is fine and all, but it just prolongs your suffering.  If you properly tanked to the league's worst record, your worst case scenario is pick #4.   Yes, this doesn't assure you of drafting a franchise player, but it puts you in a DRAMATICALLY better position of doing so. 

Yes, it's possible to draft a bust in the top 5.  It's more likely you draft a bust in the late lotto, though.  Top 5 picks are gold.  They are your one and only shot at a superstar.  2014 draft has 1 bonified superstar in Wiggins and a couple others who may reach that level as well.  You don't get this opportunity very often... and while drafting 6-30 theoretically gives you a shot at an all-star as well (see Rondo, Rajon), it's far FAR more unlikely.

Here's the actual list (in order) of the top twenty players in the NBA last season according to NBA.COM's efficiency rating and their respective draft positions:

Lebron James--1st
Kevin Durant--2nd
Anderson Varejao--30th
Kobe Bryant--13th
James Harden--3rd
David Lee--30th
Tim Duncan--1st
Chris Paul--4th
Al Horford--3rd
Carmelo Anthony--3rd
LaMarcus Aldridge--2nd
Russell Westbrook--4th
Steph Curry--7th
Dwight Howard--1st
Dwayne Wade--5th
Joakim Noah--9th
Blake Griffin--1st
Rajon Rondo--21st
Al Jefferson--15th
Tony Parker--28th

8 of the 20 players were drafted outside the top 5.

Of the 6 players on that list who are NBA champions, only 2 (Duncan and Wade) are top five draft picks who have won titles with the teams that drafted them. 
 

« Last Edit: May 05, 2013, 05:44:03 PM by Celtics18 »
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #50 on: May 05, 2013, 06:01:07 PM »

Offline Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 34722
  • Tommy Points: 1604
I believe this is the complete list of all top-10 draftees who have won a championship since 2002:

Adam Morrison (2006)
Andrew Bynum (2005)
LeBron James (2003)
Dwyane Wade (2003)
Chris Bosh (2003)
Darko Milicic (2003)
Caron Butler (2002)

but you seemed to have picked an arbitrary year.  I mean 2001 adds Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, Eddy Curry, and Shane Battier.  Even the weak 2000 draft had Mike Miller.  99 had Odom, Rip, Marion, and Terry.  So it would appear you just picked a year in which you could make it seem less when if you had picked the 3 prior drafts your list would have been a lot longer, as it would in 98 and earlier.
2025 Historical Draft - Cleveland Cavaliers - 1st pick

Starters - Luka, JB, Lebron, Wemby, Shaq
Rotation - D. Daniels, Mitchell, G. Wallace, Melo, Noah
Deep Bench - Korver, Turner

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #51 on: May 05, 2013, 06:25:54 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

  • NCE
  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20131
  • Tommy Points: 1333
Quote
If 2014 was considered to be a weak draft class, would that change some people's minds about jettisoning KG and PP in an effort to tank?  What if it was an average draft class?

A lot of these draft classes nowadays are weak because kids don't stay in college long enough to know how to play.

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #52 on: May 05, 2013, 07:00:08 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6162
  • Tommy Points: 383
  • Jeff Green
It's clear you'll have a BETTER chance at drafting a BETTER player if you draft EARLIER.

But it's also clear that you can draft a GREAT player at a LATER stage, too.

What's all the fuss? If someone's trying to make the point that it's better to draft 15th than 1st, then it's hopeless. :-\
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

[Kevin Garnett]
"I've always said J. Green is going to be one of the best players to ever play this game"

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #53 on: May 05, 2013, 07:25:06 PM »

Offline Lucky17

  • DKC Commish
  • JoJo White
  • ****************
  • Posts: 16021
  • Tommy Points: 2352
I believe this is the complete list of all top-10 draftees who have won a championship since 2002:

Adam Morrison (2006)
Andrew Bynum (2005)
LeBron James (2003)
Dwyane Wade (2003)
Chris Bosh (2003)
Darko Milicic (2003)
Caron Butler (2002)

but you seemed to have picked an arbitrary year.

Ten years. I like round numbers. So, 7 of the last 100 top-ten draftees.

Quote
I mean 2001 adds Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, Eddy Curry, and Shane Battier.  Even the weak 2000 draft had Mike Miller.  99 had Odom, Rip, Marion, and Terry.  So it would appear you just picked a year in which you could make it seem less when if you had picked the 3 prior drafts your list would have been a lot longer, as it would in 98 and earlier.

So, we add another 9 of 30 to that list. We're up to 16 of the past 130.

Looks like drafting in the top ten pays off -- as long as you are prepared to wait 7-10 years, and don't lose that player to free agency, as most of those champions didn't win rings with the teams that originally drafted them.
DKC League is now on reddit!: http://www.reddit.com/r/dkcleague

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #54 on: May 05, 2013, 07:31:01 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

Wait, so you're saying it's better to draft earlier than later?  ::) ::) ::) ::)

Damian Lillard - #6 pick
Paul George - #10 pick
Stephen Curry - #7 pick
Jrue Holiday - #17 pick
Eric Gordon - #7 pick
Brook Lopez - #10 pick
Roy Hibbert - #17 pick
Serge Ibaka - #24 pick
Joakim Noah - #9 pick
Marc Gasol - #48 pick
Brandon Roy - #6 pick
Rajon Rondo - #21 pick
Andrew Bynum - #10 pick
David Lee - #30 pick
Amar'e Stoudemire - #9 pick
Joe Johnson - #10 pick
Zach Randolph - #19 pick
Tony Parker - #28 pick
Gilbert Arenas - #30 pick
Dirk Nowitzki - #9 pick
Paul Pierce - #10 pick
Tracy McGrady - #9 pick
Kobe Bryant - #13 pick
Peja Stojakovic - #14 pick
Steve Nash - #15 pick
Jermaine O'Neal - #17 pick
Latrell Sprewell - #24 pick
Tim Hardaway - #14 pick
Shawn Kemp - #17 pick
Rod Strickland - #19 pick
Kevin Johnson - #7 pick
Reggie Miller - #11 pick
Chris Mullin - #7 pick
John Stockton - #16 pick
Dale Ellis - #9 pick
Clyde Drexler - #14 pick
Larry Bird - #6 pick
Bernard King - #7 pick
Adrian Dantley - #6 pick
Robert Parish - #8 pick
Alex English - #23 pick
Dennis Johnson - #29 pick
Jamaal Wilkes - #11 pick
George Gervin - #40 pick
Julius Erving - #12 pick
Artis Gilmore - #117 pick
Calvin Murphy - #18 pick
Nate Archibald - #19 pick
Dan Issel - #122 pick
Jo Jo White - #9 pick
Mel Daniels - #9 pick
Willis Reed - #8 pick
Gus Johnson - #10 pick
John Havlicek - #7 pick
Chet Walker - #12 pick
Lenny Wilkens - #9 pick
Hal Greer - #13 pick
Sam Jones - #8 pick
K.C. Jones - #13 pick
Jack Twyman - #8 pick
Bill Sharman - #16 pick
Bobby Wazner - #10 pick
Why do i need to keep arguing the same thing...

Dale Ellis and Latrell Sprewell?...  are you just listing the names of random allstars ?

You're completely missing my point.  Being an all-star is one thing.  Being the centerpiece of a championship team is a whole nother thing.   This sport like no other sport is dominated by dominating players.  You need a superstar to contend.  Showing me that Latrell Sprewell was picked #24 is irrelevant.  Do you want to build the Celtics around the talents of the next Latrell Sprewell?  Cool... welcome to perpetual mediocrity.  I personally strive to be a contender... and generally the only way you become a contender in this league is by having one of the league's top 5 players.  And generally those guys are picked within the first 5 picks of the draft.

Sorry man that's just the way it is.  You can throw together a scrappy playoff team built around the talents of Rod Strickland and Peja Stojakovic... and you can sit back and cheer while your team is dominated by the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Andrew Wiggins in the playoffs.   Go ahead and slap together a team built around Josh Smith, Rajon Rondo and some late 1st rounder (Sully) ... welcome to the world of also-rans.

You'd think a team that won titles on the heels of great men like Bill Russell, Dave Cowens, Larry Bird and Kevin Garnett would understand the importance of having a superstar, but apparently many people here have this perception that you can win a title with the likes of Pooh Richardson.  You must be following a different league than I am.  I'm sorry I'm the one who has to break it to you... I thought this was common knowledge... I guess you're all just hanging around waiting for Paul George to prove 50+ years of NBA history wrong. 

How many guys in your arbitrary list were ever the centerpiece of a championship team?  That list gets pretty short... and it heavily favors guys picked within the first 5 picks of the draft.  There might be an aberration here or there from some trend-setters (Kobe = coming out of high school)/ (Dirk = coming out of Europe)... but ultimately we spot these guys early and they are snagged within the first 5 picks.   

TANK... TANK.... TANK....  The alternative seems lame... Scrapping together a bleh playoff team during Rondo's prime that never wins squat... No thanks.  I want a perpetual contender.

Let's go back to your list, then.

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

Those are all the guys you'd say that make teams perpetual contenders? How many of those have actually won rings, as the centerpiece of their team?
4... Duncan, KG, Wade and Lebron... all 4 of those have won championships as the centerpiece of a team.  All 4 were drafted within the top 5 picks.   I'd argue Pau Gasol won a title as the centerpiece of a team as well (#3)... though some would suggest it was actually Kobe (#13).  Take Kobe's draft position with a grain of salt since he was straight of of high school.   Dirk also won a title as the centerpiece of a team (pick #10), but you can blame that on being European.

These days, players can't jump from high school to the pros.  We also have a better grasp of foreign players.   Of current stars, seems Kevin Durant is the most likely centerpiece of a future championship and he was picked #2.  The odds heavily favor the future championship centerpieces being drafted within the first 5 picks.  All signs point to Andrew Wiggins being a phenom... he'll go #1 in 2014.

You can get solid players later in the draft... like Rondo.  But those guys will never win a title as the team's best player.

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #55 on: May 05, 2013, 07:35:03 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
It's clear you'll have a BETTER chance at drafting a BETTER player if you draft EARLIER.

But it's also clear that you can draft a GREAT player at a LATER stage, too.

What's all the fuss? If someone's trying to make the point that it's better to draft 15th than 1st, then it's hopeless. :-\

My overall point here is this... almost all nba champions have 1 guy who is designated as the "best player".  Magic, Bird, Jordan, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, KG, Pau, Dirk, LeBron, etc ...  almost always those guys are one of the top 5 players in the league at the time of them winning a title.  And almost always, those guys are drafted within the first 5 picks of the draft.

If you want to be a serious contender, it starts with landing a franchise superstar.  It's almost unthinkable that you'll land that guy with the 16th pick of a draft.  History just doesn't show it happening.   Yes, you might get a solid 2nd or 3rd guy... shoot, there have been all-stars drafted in the 2nd round.  But never the best player on a future champion.  It doesn't happen.

This is why it would be so shocking if Paul George and the Indiana Pacers win the title this year.

How this relates to this thread:  2014 is a loaded draft with a prospect who is considered the greatest prospect since LeBron James... and that's definitely saying something since Kevin Durant was considered as "can't miss" as "can't miss" gets...  but they aren't saying this is the best prospect since Durant.  They are saying it's the best prospect since LeBron.

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #56 on: May 05, 2013, 07:52:03 PM »

Offline TripleOT

  • Chat Moderator
  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1993
  • Tommy Points: 213
In the post-MJ era, There's been only two teams with their original Top 5 picks to win titles, the Spurs and Wade's Heat.  Both sides are correct.  You usually need franchise superstars to win titles, and you can get those guys by either drafting them high, getting lucky with picks 6-15, or by using assets to trade for them, like the Cs and Lakers did with KG and Gasol. 

With this Celtics team, blowing it up is very unattractive to me.  What are the odds of getting the #1 pick in the 2014 draft to get Wiggins? If KG, PP and Doc all move on, a Rondo led team will win at least 30 games, giving the Cs a 3% or worst chance at the top pick.  A full tank job and the worst record is a 1 in 4 chance.

Theoretically, if the Cs tank and get Wiggins, how long will it take for a Wiggins, Rondo, Green, Sullinger core take to contend?  Probably at least a half decade.  To me, retooling is a better option.   

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #57 on: May 05, 2013, 08:17:05 PM »

Offline BballTim

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23724
  • Tommy Points: 1123
It's clear you'll have a BETTER chance at drafting a BETTER player if you draft EARLIER.

But it's also clear that you can draft a GREAT player at a LATER stage, too.

What's all the fuss? If someone's trying to make the point that it's better to draft 15th than 1st, then it's hopeless. :-\

My overall point here is this... almost all nba champions have 1 guy who is designated as the "best player".  Magic, Bird, Jordan, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, KG, Pau, Dirk, LeBron, etc ...  almost always those guys are one of the top 5 players in the league at the time of them winning a title.  And almost always, those guys are drafted within the first 5 picks of the draft.

If you want to be a serious contender, it starts with landing a franchise superstar.  It's almost unthinkable that you'll land that guy with the 16th pick of a draft.  History just doesn't show it happening.   Yes, you might get a solid 2nd or 3rd guy... shoot, there have been all-stars drafted in the 2nd round.  But never the best player on a future champion.  It doesn't happen.

This is why it would be so shocking if Paul George and the Indiana Pacers win the title this year.

How this relates to this thread:  2014 is a loaded draft with a prospect who is considered the greatest prospect since LeBron James... and that's definitely saying something since Kevin Durant was considered as "can't miss" as "can't miss" gets...  but they aren't saying this is the best prospect since Durant.  They are saying it's the best prospect since LeBron.

  After all of these pages we're at the point where we're talking about a smallish chance that you think's better than the chance you'd have without a top 5 pick, which is far from a blueprint (which implies a strong likelihood of success if you follow it). So since the franchise would be (for a while) dead in the water if you tank and don't get your guy, and you're unlikely to get that guy, you might as well take a shot at a deep playoff run and tank if it fails. You can always tank, you can't always be a (fringe) contender.

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #58 on: May 05, 2013, 08:37:43 PM »

Offline bucknersrevenge

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1967
  • Tommy Points: 170
Luckily for those Celtics fans opposed to the insanity of tanking for the 2014 Draft, one aspect of this idea I have not seen discussed is that Wyc more than likely won't allow this. It just wouldn't be fiscally responsible to force a withering casual fan base to swallow being a horribly bad basketball team after the success we've enjoyed in recent years. Not to mention what it meant to Wyc to see this brand restored and what KG and Paul did to change the culture here. Tanking would be like p---ing all over everything those two stand for. The Celtics are last in the casual fan base hierarchy right now in this city. We tank and Wyc stands to lose his shirt several years in a row on this investment.
Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity...

Re: Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up
« Reply #59 on: May 05, 2013, 08:46:11 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2509
  • Tommy Points: 377
Not to mention what it meant to Wyc to see this brand restored and what KG and Paul did to change the culture here. Tanking would be like p---ing all over everything those two stand for. The Celtics are last in the casual fan base hierarchy right now in this city. We tank and Wyc stands to lose his shirt several years in a row on this investment.

This current team was built on tanking. Have you forgotten the Allan Ray era? 18 losses in a row? Pierce's "stress fracture"?

Edit: Misspelled Allan Ray's name. Sorry everyone.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2013, 09:15:53 PM by Nerf DPOY »