Loaded 2014 Draft = Blow It Up

[bfrombleacher]

If we blow it up we'd have to lose EVERYTHING.

Rondo's gone for sure. Otherwise we risk getting a lower pick.

One of Sully or AB has to be gone.

Then we become the Bobcats and hope.

[LarBrd33]

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

... Are you seeing a pattern here???

Rajon Rondo. Pick #22
Tony Parker. Pick #28
Brook Lopez. Pick #10
Kobe Bryant. Pick #13
Paul Pierce. Pick #10
Dirk Nowitzki. Pick #9
Paul George Pick #10
Josh Smith. Pick #17
David Lee. Pick #30.
Jrue Holiday. Pick #17
JR Smith. Pick #18
Marc Gasol. Pick #18
Zach Randolph. Pick #19
Manu Ginobilli. Pick #28

I could go on and on.

Yeah? I am not seeing a pattern.

You aren't? 

Let me fix your list:

Kobe Bryant. Pick #13
Dirk Nowitzki. Pick #9

Only those two players ever had enough talent to be the centerpiece of a championship team.   I love PIerce, but he was never a top 5 franchise player... that was KG.   Kobe's low draft position is understandable due to him being taken out of High School.  Dirk is the aberration.

YOu aren't going to win this argument and you know it.  Championships are built around Phenom talent. 

Look at a least of the names title teams were built around.

Bron - #1 pick
Dirk - #10 pick
Kobe - #13 pick Pau Gasol - #3 pick
KG - #5 pick
Wade - #5 pick
Duncan - #1 pick
Billups - #3 pick/Sheed - #4 pick/ Rip - #7 pick
Shaq - #1 pick
Hakeem - #1 pick
Jordan - #3 pick
Isiah Thomas - #2 pick
Magic Johnson - #1 pick
Larry Bird - #6 pick* (not really a #6 pick... the rules allowed Red to take him a year before he came out of College... no way he goes #6 otherwise)
Kareem - #1 pick
...


Do you really want to argue this?  To win a title you almost always need to have a superstar player... and superstar players are almost always picked in the top 5.   

You don't even get a shot at a player like that by picking in the middle of the 1st round.  You might add a nice piece... but unless you have that superstar, you aren't a contender.


Take a look at the 96 names that Bill Simmons ranks in his "Hall of Fame Player Pyramid"  http://www.bareknucks.com/bill-simmons96-greatest-nba-players-ever ... The VAST majority were taken within the first 5 picks of the draft.

[LarBrd33]

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

Wait, so you're saying it's better to draft earlier than later? 

Damian Lillard - #6 pick
Paul George - #10 pick
Stephen Curry - #7 pick
Jrue Holiday - #17 pick
Eric Gordon - #7 pick
Brook Lopez - #10 pick
Roy Hibbert - #17 pick
Serge Ibaka - #24 pick
Joakim Noah - #9 pick
Marc Gasol - #48 pick
Brandon Roy - #6 pick
Rajon Rondo - #21 pick
Andrew Bynum - #10 pick
David Lee - #30 pick
Amar'e Stoudemire - #9 pick
Joe Johnson - #10 pick
Zach Randolph - #19 pick
Tony Parker - #28 pick
Gilbert Arenas - #30 pick
Dirk Nowitzki - #9 pick
Paul Pierce - #10 pick
Tracy McGrady - #9 pick
Kobe Bryant - #13 pick
Peja Stojakovic - #14 pick
Steve Nash - #15 pick
Jermaine O'Neal - #17 pick
Latrell Sprewell - #24 pick
Tim Hardaway - #14 pick
Shawn Kemp - #17 pick
Rod Strickland - #19 pick
Kevin Johnson - #7 pick
Reggie Miller - #11 pick
Chris Mullin - #7 pick
John Stockton - #16 pick
Dale Ellis - #9 pick
Clyde Drexler - #14 pick
Larry Bird - #6 pick
Bernard King - #7 pick
Adrian Dantley - #6 pick
Robert Parish - #8 pick
Alex English - #23 pick
Dennis Johnson - #29 pick
Jamaal Wilkes - #11 pick
George Gervin - #40 pick
Julius Erving - #12 pick
Artis Gilmore - #117 pick
Calvin Murphy - #18 pick
Nate Archibald - #19 pick
Dan Issel - #122 pick
Jo Jo White - #9 pick
Mel Daniels - #9 pick
Willis Reed - #8 pick
Gus Johnson - #10 pick
John Havlicek - #7 pick
Chet Walker - #12 pick
Lenny Wilkens - #9 pick
Hal Greer - #13 pick
Sam Jones - #8 pick
K.C. Jones - #13 pick
Jack Twyman - #8 pick
Bill Sharman - #16 pick
Bobby Wazner - #10 pick

Why do i need to keep arguing the same thing...

Dale Ellis and Latrell Sprewell?...  are you just listing the names of random allstars ?

You're completely missing my point.  Being an all-star is one thing.  Being the centerpiece of a championship team is a whole nother thing.   This sport like no other sport is dominated by dominating players.  You need a superstar to contend.  Showing me that Latrell Sprewell was picked #24 is irrelevant.  Do you want to build the Celtics around the talents of the next Latrell Sprewell?  Cool... welcome to perpetual mediocrity.  I personally strive to be a contender... and generally the only way you become a contender in this league is by having one of the league's top 5 players.  And generally those guys are picked within the first 5 picks of the draft.

Sorry man that's just the way it is.  You can throw together a scrappy playoff team built around the talents of Rod Strickland and Peja Stojakovic... and you can sit back and cheer while your team is dominated by the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Andrew Wiggins in the playoffs.   Go ahead and slap together a team built around Josh Smith, Rajon Rondo and some late 1st rounder (Sully) ... welcome to the world of also-rans.

You'd think a team that won titles on the heels of great men like Bill Russell, Dave Cowens, Larry Bird and Kevin Garnett would understand the importance of having a superstar, but apparently many people here have this perception that you can win a title with the likes of Pooh Richardson.  You must be following a different league than I am.  I'm sorry I'm the one who has to break it to you... I thought this was common knowledge... I guess you're all just hanging around waiting for Paul George to prove 50+ years of NBA history wrong. 

How many guys in your arbitrary list were ever the centerpiece of a championship team?  That list gets pretty short... and it heavily favors guys picked within the first 5 picks of the draft.  There might be an aberration here or there from some trend-setters (Kobe = coming out of high school)/ (Dirk = coming out of Europe)... but ultimately we spot these guys early and they are snagged within the first 5 picks.   

TANK... TANK.... TANK....  The alternative seems lame... Scrapping together a bleh playoff team during Rondo's prime that never wins squat... No thanks.  I want a perpetual contender.

[Lucky17]

I believe this is the complete list of all top-10 draftees who have won a championship since 2002:

Adam Morrison (2006)
Andrew Bynum (2005)
LeBron James (2003)
Dwyane Wade (2003)
Chris Bosh (2003)
Darko Milicic (2003)

[Celtics18]

Lebron James wasn't drafted by the Heat, Chauncey Billups (that all time legendary franchise player) wasn't drafted by the Pistons, Kevin Garnett wasn't drafted by the Celtics, Shaquille O'Neal wasn't drafted by the Lakers, Shaquille O'Neal wasn't drafted by the Heat, Pau Gasol wasn't drafted by the Lakers, Dirk Nowitzki was drafted 9th by Dallas, Kobe Bryant was drafted 13th by the Lakers, Tony Parker was drafted 128th by the Spurs.

Your hard and fast rule about a team needing to tank and draft a transcendent player to ever have a shot at an NBA title seems to have more aberrations than it has championship teams that fit your rule. 

I guess you can alway fall back on Tim Duncan as the player that fits your absolute rule of how champions are built.  Or, you can rely on your vast mountains of evidence from back in the olden days.  Or, you can try to turn LaMarcus Aldridge, John Wall, and Al Horford into players that are destined to be all time greats based solely on their respective draft positions. 

Or, you can admit that your theory is highly flawed and outdated. 

Tanking is not the way to rebuild this team into a contender.  Somewhere in the back of your mind you probably know this, though. 

[ejk3489]

Unless we trade Rondo, Green, Bradley, and Sully, we will be in no position to get wiggins.

I do think we should blow the rest of the team up though

Trade Green and Rondo then.

Try to get expiring contracts and draft picks for them (higher the better)

Build around cap space, youth and draft picks (top 5 picks... not late lotto picks).

See my post here for my full realistic blueprint on building a dynasty:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=64634.msg1463478#msg1463478

  You seem to have found a realistic way to get to the bottom, that's the easy part. If that's all it took to build a dynasty then the Clips and the Kings and the Wizards would be perennial contenders.

I'm not a short-sighted fan.  You don't build a contender by perpetually making the playoffs with the 7th or 8th seed.


Fact:  Drafting in the Top 5 gives you by far a better opportunity to land a franchise player.   Regardless of what happens next season, if KG retires... this team is going to miss the playoffs.   The thing is, we might be a late lotto team if we hang onto Rondo and Green.  Yes, you can luck into allstars picking in the late lotto... but if you want a franchise player, you're gon need to be picking in the top 5.

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

... Are you seeing a pattern here???

Slapping together a mediocre team is fine and all, but it just prolongs your suffering.  If you properly tanked to the league's worst record, your worst case scenario is pick #4.   Yes, this doesn't assure you of drafting a franchise player, but it puts you in a DRAMATICALLY better position of doing so. 

Yes, it's possible to draft a bust in the top 5.  It's more likely you draft a bust in the late lotto, though.  Top 5 picks are gold.  They are your one and only shot at a superstar.  2014 draft has 1 bonified superstar in Wiggins and a couple others who may reach that level as well.  You don't get this opportunity very often... and while drafting 6-30 theoretically gives you a shot at an all-star as well (see Rondo, Rajon), it's far FAR more unlikely.

I see you've conveniently left out the names of the most productive players in the league this year that weren't drafted in the top 5:

Andre Iguodala (9)
Joakim Noah (9)
Brook Lopez (10)
Paul George (10)
Joe Johnson (10)
Josh Smith (17)
Roy Hibbert (17)
Jrue Holliday (17)
JR Smith (18)
David West (18)
Zach Randolph (19)
Tony Parker (28)
David Lee (30)
Marc Gasol (48)

No, not all of these players are what you would consider "superstars", but they're certainly not scrubs either. Tony Parker was a legit top 5 MVP candidate this season on a 58 win team. Gasol just won DPOY, and anchored one of the best defensive teams in the league. JR Smith won Sixth Man of the Year. Noah, George, Holiday, Lopez, Noah, Lee, Parker, and Randolph were All-Stars this year, and aside from Holliday, all are (or were) starters on a playoff team.


(Edit: oops, guess I'm a few posts too late on this)

Nice list.  I was sorting by NBA efficiency... the most productive players in the league (the franchise players) are almost all picked in the top 5.   Listing off all-stars (who are best served as the 2nd-4th best player on a title team) does nothing to disprove what I said...

If you want a franchise player, you need to properly tank.  If you want a mediocre team, you can cross your fingers and hope to defy the odds and land a talent like the above players (none of which will ever be the centerpiece of a championship team)

If that's your definition of a franchise player, I wouldn't put Westbrook, Horford, Love, Deron, Wall, Curry, Griffin, Aldridge, Harden or Davis in that category either. All of them are very good second options on a contender, but as the number 1 guy, their team is likely to be mediocre/average aka the Pacers, Hawks, Nets, Clippers, ect.

Also, I think it's fairly obvious to most that you need to have a top 5 player on your team to contend - I'm not fooling myself into thinking we'll have any chance at winning while Lebron is still in his prime. But tanking doesn't necessarily guarantee you those players...Miami got Lebron through free agency, we got KG through a trade, LA got Shaq through free agency/Pau through a trade. Minnesota, Cleveland, Charlotte, Washington, and Sacramento have been tanking for years, and none of them are close to even making the playoffs, let alone field a contender.

[WeMadeIt17]

Actually Kobe was drafted by the hornets and traded for divac.

[LarBrd33]

Lebron James wasn't drafted by the Heat, Chauncey Billups (that all time legendary franchise player) wasn't drafted by the Pistons, Kevin Garnett wasn't drafted by the Celtics, Shaquille O'Neal wasn't drafted by the Lakers, Shaquille O'Neal wasn't drafted by the Heat, Pau Gasol wasn't drafted by the Lakers, Dirk Nowitzki was drafted 9th by Dallas, Kobe Bryant was drafted 13th by the Lakers, Tony Parker was drafted 128th by the Spurs.

Your hard and fast rule about a team needing to tank and draft a transcendent player to ever have a shot at an NBA title seems to have more aberrations than it has championship teams that fit your rule. 

I guess you can alway fall back on Tim Duncan as the player that fits your absolute rule of how champions are built.  Or, you can rely on your vast mountains of evidence from back in the olden days.  Or, you can try to turn LaMarcus Aldridge, John Wall, and Al Horford into players that are destined to be all time greats based solely on their respective draft positions. 

Or, you can admit that your theory is highly flawed and outdated. 

Tanking is not the way to rebuild this team into a contender.  Somewhere in the back of your mind you probably know this, though.

You bring up good points.

So lets cross our fingers Kevin Durant, Andrew wiggins, LeBron James, Dwight Howard or Chris Paul or some other franchise player ends up in Boston through some miracle that doesn't involve the draft.  Fair enough. 

Day 1 of the Kevin Durant watch is on.  Here's hoping we get him before he's 32 years old.

Start danging Rondo as trade bait... we're desperately need a franchise player if we're ever going to contend.

[LarBrd33]

I believe this is the complete list of all top-10 draftees who have won a championship since 2002:

Adam Morrison (2006)
Andrew Bynum (2005)
LeBron James (2003)
Dwyane Wade (2003)
Chris Bosh (2003)
Darko Milicic (2003)

That just backs it up even more if you ask me...

Superstars are rare... you maybe get a few every decade.  The 2013 draft is garbage.  The 2014 draft has Wiggins (who scouts say is the best prospect since LeBron james)... Jabari Parker is supposedly a bluechipper as well.  Potentially the best draft since 2003 (which produced two franchise players in the top 5... LeBron and Wade... both of who successfully lead teams to a title. )... Hence why you tank this season.  Same reason tanking in the Shaq draft made sense... or taking in the Duncan draft made sense... or taking in the LeBron draft... or tanking in the Durant draft.  This level of talent doesn't come around very often and whoever is lucky enough to nab the guy is set for years.

[JHTruth]

If KG and PP retire, we won;t have to try to tank, we'll auto tank. We'll be atrocious.

We were one of the worst defensive teams in the league without KG on the floor. PP is our top offensive option. And we still managed only a 7 seed in the East and a first round exit. Rondo looks like he will miss most of next year. Bradley is horrific. That leaves Sully and Green to try to lead this team next year. Wow will we be bad.

I'm relaxed, I know we will be a bottom 5 team next year

[LooseCannon]

Actually Kobe was drafted by the hornets and traded for divac.

The Hornets agreed before the draft to trade the pick and the Lakers told them to take Kobe with it.

[BballTim]

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

Wait, so you're saying it's better to draft earlier than later? 

Damian Lillard - #6 pick
Paul George - #10 pick
Stephen Curry - #7 pick
Jrue Holiday - #17 pick
Eric Gordon - #7 pick
Brook Lopez - #10 pick
Roy Hibbert - #17 pick
Serge Ibaka - #24 pick
Joakim Noah - #9 pick
Marc Gasol - #48 pick
Brandon Roy - #6 pick
Rajon Rondo - #21 pick
Andrew Bynum - #10 pick
David Lee - #30 pick
Amar'e Stoudemire - #9 pick
Joe Johnson - #10 pick
Zach Randolph - #19 pick
Tony Parker - #28 pick
Gilbert Arenas - #30 pick
Dirk Nowitzki - #9 pick
Paul Pierce - #10 pick
Tracy McGrady - #9 pick
Kobe Bryant - #13 pick
Peja Stojakovic - #14 pick
Steve Nash - #15 pick
Jermaine O'Neal - #17 pick
Latrell Sprewell - #24 pick
Tim Hardaway - #14 pick
Shawn Kemp - #17 pick
Rod Strickland - #19 pick
Kevin Johnson - #7 pick
Reggie Miller - #11 pick
Chris Mullin - #7 pick
John Stockton - #16 pick
Dale Ellis - #9 pick
Clyde Drexler - #14 pick
Larry Bird - #6 pick
Bernard King - #7 pick
Adrian Dantley - #6 pick
Robert Parish - #8 pick
Alex English - #23 pick
Dennis Johnson - #29 pick
Jamaal Wilkes - #11 pick
George Gervin - #40 pick
Julius Erving - #12 pick
Artis Gilmore - #117 pick
Calvin Murphy - #18 pick
Nate Archibald - #19 pick
Dan Issel - #122 pick
Jo Jo White - #9 pick
Mel Daniels - #9 pick
Willis Reed - #8 pick
Gus Johnson - #10 pick
John Havlicek - #7 pick
Chet Walker - #12 pick
Lenny Wilkens - #9 pick
Hal Greer - #13 pick
Sam Jones - #8 pick
K.C. Jones - #13 pick
Jack Twyman - #8 pick
Bill Sharman - #16 pick
Bobby Wazner - #10 pick

Why do i need to keep arguing the same thing...

Dale Ellis and Latrell Sprewell?...  are you just listing the names of random allstars ?

You're completely missing my point.  Being an all-star is one thing.  Being the centerpiece of a championship team is a whole nother thing.   This sport like no other sport is dominated by dominating players.  You need a superstar to contend.  Showing me that Latrell Sprewell was picked #24 is irrelevant.  Do you want to build the Celtics around the talents of the next Latrell Sprewell?  Cool... welcome to perpetual mediocrity.  I personally strive to be a contender... and generally the only way you become a contender in this league is by having one of the league's top 5 players.  And generally those guys are picked within the first 5 picks of the draft.

  How many centerpieces of championship teams do you have in your original list? Are you expecting to build a title team around as many as half of those players?

[bobbyv]

List of the most productive players in the league this year:

LeBron - #1 pick
Kevin Love - #5 pick
Kevin Durant - #1 pick
Dwight Howard - #1 pick
Dwayne Wade - #5 pick
James Harden - #3 pick
Russel Westbrook - #4 pick
Tim Duncan - #1 pick
Al Horford - #3 pick
Chris Paul - #4 pick
Deron Williams - #3 pick
Kyrie Irving - #1 pick
John Wall - #1 pick
Carmelo Anthony - #3 pick
Steph Curry - #7 pick *** wow
LaMarcus Aldridge - #2 pick
Kevin Garnett - #5 pick
Blake Griffin - #1 pick
Anthony Davis - #1 pick

... Are you seeing a pattern here???

Rajon Rondo. Pick #22
Tony Parker. Pick #28
Brook Lopez. Pick #10
Kobe Bryant. Pick #13
Paul Pierce. Pick #10
Dirk Nowitzki. Pick #9
Paul George Pick #10
Josh Smith. Pick #17
David Lee. Pick #30.
Jrue Holiday. Pick #17
JR Smith. Pick #18
Marc Gasol. Pick #18
Zach Randolph. Pick #19
Manu Ginobilli. Pick #28

I could go on and on.

Yeah? I am not seeing a pattern.

You aren't? 

Let me fix your list:

Kobe Bryant. Pick #13
Dirk Nowitzki. Pick #9

Only those two players ever had enough talent to be the centerpiece of a championship team.   I love PIerce, but he was never a top 5 franchise player... that was KG.   Kobe's low draft position is understandable due to him being taken out of High School.  Dirk is the aberration.

YOu aren't going to win this argument and you know it.  Championships are built around Phenom talent. 

Look at a least of the names title teams were built around.

Bron - #1 pick
Dirk - #10 pick
Kobe - #13 pick Pau Gasol - #3 pick
KG - #5 pick
Wade - #5 pick
Duncan - #1 pick
Billups - #3 pick/Sheed - #4 pick/ Rip - #7 pick
Shaq - #1 pick
Hakeem - #1 pick
Jordan - #3 pick
Isiah Thomas - #2 pick
Magic Johnson - #1 pick
Larry Bird - #6 pick* (not really a #6 pick... the rules allowed Red to take him a year before he came out of College... no way he goes #6 otherwise)
Kareem - #1 pick
...


Do you really want to argue this?  To win a title you almost always need to have a superstar player... and superstar players are almost always picked in the top 5.   

You don't even get a shot at a player like that by picking in the middle of the 1st round.  You might add a nice piece... but unless you have that superstar, you aren't a contender.


Take a look at the 96 names that Bill Simmons ranks in his "Hall of Fame Player Pyramid"  http://www.bareknucks.com/bill-simmons96-greatest-nba-players-ever ... The VAST majority were taken within the first 5 picks of the draft.

I don't think anyone is doubting that. Where you go wrong is assuming that just because we tank, we'll get a top 3 draft pick. You're also assuming that the draft pick won't be a bust. There's a lot of places where we could go wrong.

[mr. dee]

How many times did we tried to tank and fail? Are we gonna follow the blueprint of the Pitino era?

- We could have Iverson (#1) back in '96 and we got Antoine (#6) instead. He didn't work out as "Franchise Player".

- We could have Duncan (#1) in '97 and we got Billups (#3). He was traded because he couldn't fit in Pitino system.

- We could have Durant (#1) in 2007 but we got Jeff Green (#5) instead. Had the trade not happen, we still probably be in the lotto land.

The best draft we had probably is Paul Pierce (#10) and he couldn't win all by himself.

We don't need to tank, we just need to develop young assets and sell them high like Big Al (#15), Gerald Green (#18), Delonte West (#24) or use them as a championship pieces.

[nickagneta]

I believe this is the complete list of all top-10 draftees who have won a championship since 2002:

Adam Morrison (2006)
Andrew Bynum (2005)
LeBron James (2003)
Dwyane Wade (2003)
Chris Bosh (2003)
Darko Milicic (2003)

Do you mean they were drafted after 2002 and won a ring? Because Dirk, Pierce, KG, Ray Allen, Mike Miller, Tyson Chandler, Bynum and more have all been top 10 picks that won titles.