My impression is that in many years the so-called "weak drafts" end up becoming stronger than people originally anticipated.
Any player who's deciding between this year and next has a huge incentive to enter this year because waiting a year could really hurt their position in a deeper draft.
I don't think this affects things much in the top 5 - those guys will come out anyway. But in the mid-first round, where guys could go top-15 this year but would be 10 slots lower next year, the incentive is huge.
And of course this re-positioning reduces the difference in quality between the drafts.
I also think that casual evaluations of draft quality tend to focus on talent at the top, rather than overall depth. For where we draft, depth is more important than the number of true franchise guys.
Completely agree. I think there will be a lot of starters/rotation players drafted this year. The only guy I see being a superstar is Nerlens Noel.
Although the depth of this draft is hurt by Smart and McAdoo returning to school.
Sorry but i disagree about Noel. I don't even think he will be a superstar or a likely one. He has pretty average iq and hands as good as melo. Any tough passes down low, don't expect him to handle it well. No post moves either
He is no doubt quick and athletic as a cat, that will be an elite shot blocker and decent rebounder, but i can't see much more. Ceiling is Ibaka
My picks for future all star calibre players (and non are considered top 10 picks)
- Burke
- Mcollum
- Giannis
- Saric
I wish I watched enough college or international ball to give an informed opinion, but alas, I only watched a couple of NCAA games, and only youtube clips of international guys. That said, my almost utterly uninformed opinion is that Burke will go top 10, Saric reminds me a little of Gallo, but on the clips I saw, he was strictly a jump shooter who looked like he'd have a really hard time beating anyone off the dribble, and looked to not have lateral quickness (all based on a youtube vid or two, lol). The vids I saw of Giannis, it looked like he was playing exclusively against all short Greek dudes. I'm taking him with a grain of salt for now. Oh, and Noel, to me, looked like a better shot blocking version of Walter. Not at all sold on him being a future star. I'm a bit intrigued by Mitch McGary (where we're picking). Looks like he's got great feel for the game. Him having a sub-par national championship game could be a blessing for somebody if he falls on account of it. Mildly interested in Steven Adams, too, but such limited video to really say.
I love draft time. Really fun to speculate about which new toys we might get.