Is Jeff Green's contract starting to look like a bargain?

[Who]

I say $9 million is what you player who is a top 15 player at his respective position earns.

[CelticConcourse]

In my opinion, market value is how much the market pays

This would mean that no player, ever, could be considered overpaid, right?

When I refer to the market, I mean what teams would be willing to pay, not what they actually pay (only one team can sign a player at a certain time).

So, if everybody thinks this player is a $4mil/yr player, one team pays him $6mil and this player performs like a $4mil/yr player, then he's overpaid. If everybody think he's a $6mil/yr player, one team pays him $6mil/yr and he performs like a $6mil/yr player, then he's fair value. If every team is willing to pay $4mil/yr and one team pays him at $5mil/yr, but he performs like a $6mil/yr player, then this team appears pretty smart for paying a little extra to sign this guy in.

I'd say this is a case of everybody not willing to pay a high price on Jeff ($9mil/yr) except the Celtics (for many reasons: surgery, inconsistency, etc.) But if he continues to play at his current ability, then he's not really overpaid, he's almost a steal. Unfortunately, if his market price was $7mil/yr and we paid him $9mil/yr, we'd have been better off by paying him $8mil/yr because no one was going to outbid us, either way.

The question is, can he average the type of game a $9mil/yr player would make, over the next four years? Jury is still out.

[CelticConcourse]

I know Jeff Green fans love to gush all over his big point nights and start asking questions like "Is Jeff Green's contract starting to look like a bargain?" or "Is Jeff Green a top 5 SF" or "What other players have the skill set of Jeff Green?" after he's gone off.

Well last night should have been the big night for you. Jeff Green got to be an all-by-himself, number 1 option, playing against a bad team as a Celtic with the opportunity to show the world he has arrived and lead his team to victory with a big night.

Instead he struggled.

Jeff is a great role playing player. He is best trying to do what he does best and not much more. He can hit the long range jumper and this year he's doing it better than most year's. He can go to the hole and get his as long as its against a mismatch. If he has an above average defending small forward guarding him, he's can't do that nearly as well. He plays good perimeter defense on larger players but will never be confused with a great defender. His rebounding is loathsome as his rebounding percentage and per game numbers are embarrassing for a superior athlete of his size and strength.

And most importantly, he has done this before. He's had great 2 month stretches in the past and then gone on to fall back. he is as consistently inconsistent as any better than average player in the league.

I don't see that being worth $36 million over 4 years. Not by a long shot.

Yeah, I agree with what you're saying. But I'm curious as to what you think "being worth $36 million over 4 years" truly constitutes. In my opinion, market value is how much the market pays, and if a a certain type of player deserves just $5mil/year, but can get offers of $8mil/year from ten teams, then he's an $8mil/year player.

Do you think no other team would want Jeff (playing at his current capacity) for four years @ $9mil/year? I don't know, but that's kind of hard to believe (for me, at least. I respect your opinion)

Who, aside from Boston obviously, was going to give Jeff Green, 4 yrs, 36 million last year?

I just don't see why it has to be, who was going to give him the money last year. It's four years for a reason: Ainge believes that Jeff Green will be performing solidly at an average of $9 million, for four years. We're two-thirds of the way into the first year, and there's just no way we can decide if it's a bust or a steal.

At his current playing rate, I'm sure at least 8 teams would pay him $9 mil, guaranteed. And like I said earlier: I'm curious as to what you think "being worth $36 million over 4 years" truly constitutes. In my opinion, market value is how much the market pays, and if a a certain type of player deserves just $5mil/year, but can get offers of $8mil/year from ten teams, then he's an $8mil/year player.

I think his market value is somewhere around $9mil/year, especially if the team signing him gets him locked up for his prime.

my comment was directly to your point on market value.  If no team, aside from Boston, was going to give Jeff Green 4 yrs, 36 million, then Boston did not pay market value.

Agreed. We did not pay market value, we paid higher than market value, for whatever reason. If he turns out to actually be a $9mil/yr player, then great, we got him at his true value. If he plays to be a $7mil/yr player, we screwed up.

What do you think his market value was, and what true value will he play at for the next four (now, three and a third) years?

[CelticConcourse]

I say $9 million is what you player who is a top 15 player at his respective position earns.

I'm pretty sure there's a general consensus that Jeff Green will be a top 15 SF for the next three and a third years. There's almost no way he turns out to be less, and like I said, his ceiling is top 3/4. His floor is 15, and I doubt he turns out that poorly.

I can't predict the future and anything's possible. Maybe Jeff turns out to be only top-30

[sofutomygaha]

We'll never get tired of debating how good Jeff Green is. I wouldn't concede that there's a consensus on this board that JG is a top 15 small forward.

I'm also decreasingly sure if small forwards are the appropriate comparison. Should we be comparing him to combo forwards at this point? Next year, do you expect him to play more 3 or more small-ball-4?

[CelticConcourse]

We'll never get tired of debating how good Jeff Green is. I wouldn't concede that there's a consensus on this board that JG is a top 15 small forward.

I'm also decreasingly sure if small forwards are the appropriate comparison. Should we be comparing him to combo forwards at this point? Next year, do you expect him to play more 3 or more small-ball-4?

And that's a whole 'nother debate in itself But he would definitely be a top 15 cornerman in the NBA. I'm pretty sure most of us think Jeff is a top-15 SF, but nowhere near a top-15 PF.

I say he plays more at the 3, with Sully at the 4. A big at the 5... that could be nice. Also, Jeff/Bass at 3/4. Maybe we could find a way to play small AND play him at the 3... with three 6'9" players at SF/PF/C... something like Green/Bass/Sullinger

[sofutomygaha]

By the way, the rule of thumb I've seen among statheads is that a win share is worth about $1.5 million. JG is on his way to about 4.6 win shares this season (a little more than Bass, a little less than Lee), which would be "worth" $7 million.

[CelticConcourse]

At the end of the day, I think we need to see how he performs for the next three years. A prime Green is much better than a non-prime Green and he should be in the flow then. That's when we can see how well he's really doing, and ultimately, whether he deserved that contract.

[sofutomygaha]

And that's a whole 'nother debate in itself But he would definitely be a top 15 cornerman in the NBA. I'm pretty sure most of us think Jeff is a top-15 SF, but nowhere near a top-15 PF.

I say he plays more at the 3, with Sully at the 4. A big at the 5... that could be nice. Also, Jeff/Bass at 3/4. Maybe we could find a way to play small AND play him at the 3... with three 6'9" players at SF/PF/C... something like Green/Bass/Sullinger

What do you mean by cornerman? I agree with you in expecting him to play more at the 3, though I don't think we'll see that Bass-Sullinger frontline unless something goes very wrong. It's too small and it doesn't compensate with speed.

[CelticConcourse]

And that's a whole 'nother debate in itself But he would definitely be a top 15 cornerman in the NBA. I'm pretty sure most of us think Jeff is a top-15 SF, but nowhere near a top-15 PF.

I say he plays more at the 3, with Sully at the 4. A big at the 5... that could be nice. Also, Jeff/Bass at 3/4. Maybe we could find a way to play small AND play him at the 3... with three 6'9" players at SF/PF/C... something like Green/Bass/Sullinger

What do you mean by cornerman? I agree with you in expecting him to play more at the 3, though I don't think we'll see that Bass-Sullinger frontline unless something goes very wrong. It's too small and it doesn't compensate with speed.

Yeah, it's pretty unreasonable. It all depends on who we have at 5 next season... if it's KG then not much will change. If it isn't KG, everything will change.

Cornerman = SF/PF (can play 3/4 like JSmoove or Marion)

At the end, I don't think Jeff is a BARGAIN at this point. He's playing at contract level, but what I like about him, is he has lots of "potential". At least, so I think (lots will disagree, and I respect that)

[nickagneta]

Playing out of position and off the bench...

You can go back and forth forever on this guy. I see both sides of it.

Which has kind of been my point the whole time. If you are truly honest with yourself and look at the whole Jeff Green package, you should be able to see both the good and the bad. You should be able to see all the reasons for failure but also see the excuses. You should see all the reasons to be hopeful but also see why he could be a false hope.

Personally, given the circumstances I would have handled the Jeff Green contract very differently. I would offered him the same one year/$9 million contract that he signed before having heart issues. If he did well, I would have given him the multi-year deal after he showed me he could perform at that level. That's basically what the C's were doing before.

Why change because of the heart issue? Actually the question should be, why once the heart issue arose did the Celtics go from a conservative attitude of short years and prove you are worth the money to a more liberal and chancy 4 year/$36 million deal?

If Green hedged because he wanted security of more years now that he had the heart issue, I would have offered him about what the Celtics offered Bass, 4 years/$24 million or so.

[CelticConcourse]

Playing out of position and off the bench...

You can go back and forth forever on this guy. I see both sides of it.

Which has kind of been my point the whole time. If you are truly honest with yourself and look at the whole Jeff Green package, you should be able to see both the good and the bad. You should be able to see all the reasons for failure but also see the excuses. You should see all the reasons to be hopeful but also see why he could be a false hope.

Personally, given the circumstances I would have handled the Jeff Green contract very differently. I would offered him the same one year/$9 million contract that he signed before having heart issues. If he did well, I would have given him the multi-year deal after he showed me he could perform at that level. That's basically what the C's were doing before.

Why change because of the heart issue? Actually the question should be, why once the heart issue arose did the Celtics go from a conservative attitude of short years and prove you are worth the money to a more liberal and chancy 4 year/$36 million deal?

If Green hedged because he wanted security of more years now that he had the heart issue, I would have offered him about what the Celtics offered Bass, 4 years/$24 million or so.

Maybe it has something to do with Green being closer to his prime. The problem is, we don't exactly know what other teams would have offered Green in that situation.

Would he have gotten an offer of $6mil/yr for four years from another team? $7mil/yr? $8mil/yr? We really don't know, but $9mil/yr probably was overpaying.

I don't see much wrong with overpaying to keep one player for his prime. I think it was a calculated risk, one that many teams make for many players. The difference is, Jeff was more unknown than most players, coming back from heart surgery and an underwhelming 2010-11 stint.

[Neurotic Guy]

Package him with Rondo and we could have the core of a deal for a superstar. 

I don't think anyone will give us a superstar, depending I guess on what you consider a superstar.

Chris Paul? (no, been there, tried that).  Think the Knicks would give us Carmelo for Green and Rondo?  Seems unlikely to me.  The Lakers would probably give us Dwight Howard.  Or are we talking a superstar more in the range of LaMarcus Aldridge?

Depending on the GMs motivation to trade, a package starting with Rondo/Green could net anyone (obviously not Lebron or Durant).  Think about the package that got us KG.  Big Al -- a potential all-star plus a whole bunch of maybe.

DH won't happen for a number of reasons, but if LA were about to lose him to free agency and could swing an S&T, Rondo-Green is a pretty good starting place.  The C's have youth with value (Bradley, Sully, Crawford) and established role players (Lee, Wilcox, Bass) --- yes, I think they could get someone at DH, CP, Carmelo (top 5-10) level if the circumstances were right.  Certainly that assessment can be disputed, but I don't think it's disputable that the better JG does over the next 6 games and the playoffs, the better trade bait he becomes.
 

[Moranis]

I know Jeff Green fans love to gush all over his big point nights and start asking questions like "Is Jeff Green's contract starting to look like a bargain?" or "Is Jeff Green a top 5 SF" or "What other players have the skill set of Jeff Green?" after he's gone off.

Well last night should have been the big night for you. Jeff Green got to be an all-by-himself, number 1 option, playing against a bad team as a Celtic with the opportunity to show the world he has arrived and lead his team to victory with a big night.

Instead he struggled.

Jeff is a great role playing player. He is best trying to do what he does best and not much more. He can hit the long range jumper and this year he's doing it better than most year's. He can go to the hole and get his as long as its against a mismatch. If he has an above average defending small forward guarding him, he's can't do that nearly as well. He plays good perimeter defense on larger players but will never be confused with a great defender. His rebounding is loathsome as his rebounding percentage and per game numbers are embarrassing for a superior athlete of his size and strength.

And most importantly, he has done this before. He's had great 2 month stretches in the past and then gone on to fall back. he is as consistently inconsistent as any better than average player in the league.

I don't see that being worth $36 million over 4 years. Not by a long shot.

Yeah, I agree with what you're saying. But I'm curious as to what you think "being worth $36 million over 4 years" truly constitutes. In my opinion, market value is how much the market pays, and if a a certain type of player deserves just $5mil/year, but can get offers of $8mil/year from ten teams, then he's an $8mil/year player.

Do you think no other team would want Jeff (playing at his current capacity) for four years @ $9mil/year? I don't know, but that's kind of hard to believe (for me, at least. I respect your opinion)

Who, aside from Boston obviously, was going to give Jeff Green, 4 yrs, 36 million last year?

I just don't see why it has to be, who was going to give him the money last year. It's four years for a reason: Ainge believes that Jeff Green will be performing solidly at an average of $9 million, for four years. We're two-thirds of the way into the first year, and there's just no way we can decide if it's a bust or a steal.

At his current playing rate, I'm sure at least 8 teams would pay him $9 mil, guaranteed. And like I said earlier: I'm curious as to what you think "being worth $36 million over 4 years" truly constitutes. In my opinion, market value is how much the market pays, and if a a certain type of player deserves just $5mil/year, but can get offers of $8mil/year from ten teams, then he's an $8mil/year player.

I think his market value is somewhere around $9mil/year, especially if the team signing him gets him locked up for his prime.

my comment was directly to your point on market value.  If no team, aside from Boston, was going to give Jeff Green 4 yrs, 36 million, then Boston did not pay market value.

Agreed. We did not pay market value, we paid higher than market value, for whatever reason. If he turns out to actually be a $9mil/yr player, then great, we got him at his true value. If he plays to be a $7mil/yr player, we screwed up.

What do you think his market value was, and what true value will he play at for the next four (now, three and a third) years?

Given where he was I don't think he would have gotten anything more than the MLE from another team (so basically Lee or Terry's contract).  I've gone on the record many times I wouldn't have given him more than 1 year and would have gone up to 9 million in that 1 year if necessary.  Of course that is mostly because I wouldn't pay my 3rd or 4th option that much money when I don't have a 2nd or 3rd option on the roster (after KG and PP retire or move on, there is just Rondo and a bunch of role players).

[nickagneta]

Playing out of position and off the bench...

You can go back and forth forever on this guy. I see both sides of it.

Which has kind of been my point the whole time. If you are truly honest with yourself and look at the whole Jeff Green package, you should be able to see both the good and the bad. You should be able to see all the reasons for failure but also see the excuses. You should see all the reasons to be hopeful but also see why he could be a false hope.

Personally, given the circumstances I would have handled the Jeff Green contract very differently. I would offered him the same one year/$9 million contract that he signed before having heart issues. If he did well, I would have given him the multi-year deal after he showed me he could perform at that level. That's basically what the C's were doing before.

Why change because of the heart issue? Actually the question should be, why once the heart issue arose did the Celtics go from a conservative attitude of short years and prove you are worth the money to a more liberal and chancy 4 year/$36 million deal?

If Green hedged because he wanted security of more years now that he had the heart issue, I would have offered him about what the Celtics offered Bass, 4 years/$24 million or so.

Maybe it has something to do with Green being closer to his prime. The problem is, we don't exactly know what other teams would have offered Green in that situation.

Would he have gotten an offer of $6mil/yr for four years from another team? $7mil/yr? $8mil/yr? We really don't know, but $9mil/yr probably was overpaying.

I don't see much wrong with overpaying to keep one player for his prime. I think it was a calculated risk, one that many teams make for many players. The difference is, Jeff was more unknown than most players, coming back from heart surgery and an underwhelming 2010-11 stint.

Again, I ask, why change once he got the heart condition?

Remember, before the heart condition, when he was a restricted free agent, the Celtics offered Green a one year-$9 million contract and he accepted. The Celtics knew that if he had an awesome year, he would be an unrestricted free agent the next year and possibly gone. He then had the heart issue.

If anything the heart issue should have raised more red flags and caused the Celtics to go even more conservative with the way the dealt with him. Instead, they went the other way. They gave him even more years than when they thought he was 100% healthy.

Was it because Danny wanted the salary slot and could care less what he got out of Green as he planned on eventually moving the contract? Was it because he is convinced that Green will be 100% healthy going forward and thought he might be getting a huge bargain? Did the lack of other options due to the new CBA force this? Was it all of this or none of this?

I am stunned that people believe that given Green's history and his history with the Celtics and his heart condition, that they believe this a good and fair market value contract. It could turn out to be one. It could turn out to be a bargain and yes, it is looking like it might be if Green can give the team for 4 years what he has given them the last 2 months. Still though, given the business position Danny had Green in, he signed him to a bad deal. He should have been able to have gotten him signed for much less.