Is Jeff Green's contract starting to look like a bargain?

[Fred Roberts]

It's a great contract. Young guy with all the tools possible on the upside . .. just entering his prime. Capable of defending the best 3's in the game. Long enough to swat lots of shots. Strong shooter, ball handler, passer and able to drive to the bucket.

I mean. . . .what are people hoping for? Be thankful we have jeff green locked up for his prime.

[Josh88]

It's a great contract. Young guy with all the tools possible on the upside . .. just entering his prime. Capable of defending the best 3's in the game. Long enough to swat lots of shots. Strong shooter, ball handler, passer and able to drive to the bucket.

I mean. . . .what are people hoping for? Be thankful we have jeff green locked up for his prime.

Consistency is what I'm hoping for. Yes he's been good over the past two months, particularly since KG went down and he's been starting. A two month stretch is not enough to justify a 4 year, $36 million contract.

If he can maintain a similar level of production next year, then yes he will be worth the money. I doubt he's going to consistently produce at his current level though, to the point where his contract can be considered a bargain. I would be happy just getting our money's worth, which I'm hopeful we will over the next few seasons.

[dinome18]

I looked at all NBA salaries last night and JG is CLEARLY not overpaid by market standards

[kgainez]

On a team of him rondo bradley and sully, i can see him getting the ball quite alot and becoming 20-22 ppg type of guy, this is hoping rondo will average 18-10-5 sully 15-10 and bradley 15 ppg with help off the bench i can see it working. All i know is good [dang]it we are gonna be fast on the break.

I doubt all those numbers except JG being 20-22ppg

[kgainez]

Not a bargain per se but the right amount, yes.  Guys of his height and ability get paid what he got paid, it's that simple.  But of course to those who don't look at the market he is overpaid.

i typically agree with this viewpoint

as a starter, jeff is averaging 22.7/5.8reb/3.4 assists
if he continues to start, I can easily see him stayng around those numbers.

ths contract becomes a deal when/if his rebounds increase for 1...7-9 a night would be SPLENDID...and then his assists, but I don't really want Jeff passing. I think if Jeff was averaging 27/8/5, that'd be a bargain.

right now, I think it's fair. could be a good trade piece, but I do hope we keep him

[SparzWizard]

Can't wait for playoffs Jeff Green then.

That'll determine if he's certainly a steal, a deal, or overrated.

[clover]

Not a bargain per se but the right amount, yes.  Guys of his height and ability get paid what he got paid, it's that simple.  But of course to those who don't look at the market he is overpaid.

i typically agree with this viewpoint

as a starter, jeff is averaging 22.7/5.8reb/3.4 assists
if he continues to start, I can easily see him stayng around those numbers.

ths contract becomes a deal when/if his rebounds increase for 1...7-9 a night would be SPLENDID...and then his assists, but I don't really want Jeff passing. I think if Jeff was averaging 27/8/5, that'd be a bargain.

right now, I think it's fair. could be a good trade piece, but I do hope we keep him

27/8/5 would an incredible bargain for Green's salary--that's easily max contract-land.

[erisred]

Not a bargain, yet. I'd say it's looking like a fair deal right now. If Green takes another step forward, say better rebounding, and shows consistence of play over the rest of the season/playoffs, then I'd say it's a bargain.

I wasn't against the original trade, although, I hated losing Perkins. Remember Krstic was part of that deal and the C's really could have used him last year and this year.

I wasn't against what Danny signed Green to this year, either. I thought it was a little high given the risks of Green coming back, but he *has* come back and I see it as a fair deal now and going forward. As I wrote, though, if Green takes even a small step forward from where he is now and plays at that level with consistency then it becomes a very good deal.

Going forward Green could be a core player to build around, or a key piece of a trade...like Jefferson was.

[ManUp]

Bargain suggests he is worth more than 9 mill per. I'm not quite ready to make that declaration. The scoring has been nice, but I'd still like to see more consistent rebounding from him. I like what I've seen and the contract no longer bothers me.

[Chris]

If he keeps it up he would be a bargain.  Right now, I think he is pretty close to on the money.  Basically, he has turned back into the player he really was in OKC, with a bit more efficiency.  And that guy was a $9 million a year player IMO. 

[CelticConcourse]

Enormous steal!

[nickagneta]

This is the dichotomy of Jeff Green:

Is he the Jeff Green who looks like the Jeff Green of the last two months playing for the Celtics? Or is he the Jeff Green who looks like the Jeff Green of the first two months he was playing for the Celtics? Is he the young talent with potential or is he the 6 year vet with a fairly mediocre overall career? Is he a bargain or is he overpaid? Is he star material or role playing bench material?

The dichotomy of Jeff Green is there is enough evidence to believe all the good things about Jeff Green as well as all the bad things about Jeff Green. He constantly displays reasons to both believe in him and doubt him greatly.

So is he a bargain or is he over paid? Guess that depends or which Jeff Green you think actually is playing for the Boston Celtics, the Jeff Green from 2013 or the Jeff Green that has existed prior to that? Or is this just another peak in a sine like wave that is Jeff green and his play?

[Neurotic Guy]

This is the dichotomy of Jeff Green:

Is he the Jeff Green who looks like the Jeff Green of the last two months playing for the Celtics? Or is he the Jeff Green who looks like the Jeff Green of the first two months he was playing for the Celtics? Is he the young talent with potential or is he the 6 year vet with a fairly mediocre overall career? Is he a bargain or is he overpaid? Is he star material or role playing bench material?

The dichotomy of Jeff Green is there is enough evidence to believe all the good things about Jeff Green as well as all the bad things about Jeff Green. He constantly displays reasons to both believe in him and doubt him greatly.

So is he a bargain or is he over paid? Guess that depends or which Jeff Green you think actually is playing for the Boston Celtics, the Jeff Green from 2013 or the Jeff Green that has existed prior to that? Or is this just another peak in a sine like wave that is Jeff green and his play?

I think that is pretty good analysis.  But the trend has certainly been positive and with the concurrent speculation that he is still recovering from the physcial and mental aspects of his injury, I'd say the contract is looking like it has been a pretty worthwhile gamble.

But given agreement the concerns you raise being dubious about whether the good Jeff will emerge as a consistent force, I think the beauty of the last 2 months is that he has become decent trade value.  Package him with Rondo and we could have the core of a deal for a superstar.   Package him with Sully, Bradley, Bass or Lee and we've got a shot at a good big.   Many combinations right now with the assets Danny has.  I think this will be a summer for big trades and Green's name will be involved in a lot of trade speculation.     

[mmmmm]

This is the dichotomy of Jeff Green:

Is he the Jeff Green who looks like the Jeff Green of the last two months playing for the Celtics? Or is he the Jeff Green who looks like the Jeff Green of the first two months he was playing for the Celtics? Is he the young talent with potential or is he the 6 year vet with a fairly mediocre overall career? Is he a bargain or is he overpaid? Is he star material or role playing bench material?

The dichotomy of Jeff Green is there is enough evidence to believe all the good things about Jeff Green as well as all the bad things about Jeff Green. He constantly displays reasons to both believe in him and doubt him greatly.

So is he a bargain or is he over paid? Guess that depends or which Jeff Green you think actually is playing for the Boston Celtics, the Jeff Green from 2013 or the Jeff Green that has existed prior to that? Or is this just another peak in a sine like wave that is Jeff green and his play?

I disagree that there is a dichotomy.   I think the only dichotomies are in the minds of fans who can't keep the whole narrative in their head.

Instead of a dichotomy, Jeff Green is a story.  It has a beginning, and events along the way that lead him to where he is right now.    And that is who is is - the player who is playing well in the situation he is in right now.

The situation Green is in is not like any of the situations he was in in OKC or his first couple of months with the C's.   And he is not the player that he was last fall, just coming off his surgery & rehab and missing a whole season.   So there is no dichotomy.  Those were just different chapters.

The story almost ended last season.  Fortunately, it did not and at this point we don't know when or how the story ends.

[Boris Badenov]

If he keeps it up he would be a bargain.  Right now, I think he is pretty close to on the money.  Basically, he has turned back into the player he really was in OKC, with a bit more efficiency.  And that guy was a $9 million a year player IMO.

This sounds right. This season is shaping up as comparable to his best season in OKC, which was 2008-2009, his second year. The only thing that's a little different is that he's now rebounding a little worse.

You can see the per-36 numbers here:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenje02.html

The point about keeping it up is important. Looking at his monthly splits, he's had two-month periods in both 08-09 and 09-10 in which his production was about as good as it's been for the last two months. These were Jan-Feb 09, and Feb-Mar 10.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/3209/year/2009/jeff-green

In both previous cases he regressed. So, there's certainly no guarantee that what we've seen recently will last.

But, if he can turn into a consistent 38%-40% shooter on 3s he is much more valuable (last year he was at 30%). He compares pretty well to Batum offensively if he can do that.

And, his defense is better this year than ever in his career, by most accounts.

It's hard to evaluate these things but in my opinion if he keeps up the D and the 3pt shooting, he'd be something like the 6th-12th best SF in the league, in the Kirilenko/Leonard/Young/Batum/Gay/Gallinari/Parsons range. Setting aside the rookie contracts, Green's looks pretty reasonable.