2013 Patriots Football

[fitzhickey]

Pats by double digits, Manning throws 3+ interceptions and Brady throws 4 touchdowns (complete strategy change)

[Donoghus]

I think this is shaping up to be something along the lines of the '06 AFC Championship Game.  Close affair (although I don't think someone will be storming back from an 18 point deficit, either).

Legacies on the line, two greats near the end of their careers.... I'm thinking the Football Gods grant us a close, tight back & forth affair. 

Denver has the better team on paper (and probably should win) but this NE team has proven to be pretty resilient and if they get that running game going and keep Denver's offense off the field, they have a real shot of pulling it off.

[Donoghus]

Btw, outside the 2001 team this is Belichick's finest year from a coaching standpoint.

Reid will probably get Coach of the Year honors but it is simply remarkable what Belichick has done with this team this year.  12-4 record, appearance in the AFC title game with a team that has been decimiated by injuries to key starters not to mention the Hernandez side show. 

He has completely revamped the offense for a 4th time during the Brady era.  Pretty impressive.

[Cman]

The nice thing about the Patriots going into this game is that they've got a bit of momentum and confidence. They've just tallied up some impressive wins the past few weeks. In contrast, the Broncos win last night was a bit of a nail-biter for them.  That said, Manning is one of the best, and the Broncos team looks really good overall - especially on offense. And they're at home. I'd give a slight edge to the Broncos, but I think the Patriots can get it done.

[PhoSita]

The nice thing about the Patriots going into this game is that they've got a bit of momentum and confidence. They've just tallied up some impressive wins the past few weeks. In contrast, the Broncos win last night was a bit of a nail-biter for them.  That said, Manning is one of the best, and the Broncos team looks really good overall - especially on offense. And they're at home. I'd give a slight edge to the Broncos, but I think the Patriots can get it done.

The thing I like about the matchup is that the Patriots really have nothing to lose.  I know many people probably don't feel that way, since it's Brady vs Manning yet again.

But with all of the injuries the Patriots have suffered, in my opinion they're lucky to have come this far.  It's remarkable.  So even coming close at all to winning the AFC Championship would be awesome.

[Rondo2287]

I think Pats win this one by more than one score.  Chandler or Nink will get a strip sack.  Vereen and Ridley will be the stars of the backfield this week.

Edelmen will finally break a punt return for a TD.


also, Chargers over Broncos.

Haha well at least the pats won by more than one score!

[Cman]

The nice thing about the Patriots going into this game is that they've got a bit of momentum and confidence. They've just tallied up some impressive wins the past few weeks. In contrast, the Broncos win last night was a bit of a nail-biter for them.  That said, Manning is one of the best, and the Broncos team looks really good overall - especially on offense. And they're at home. I'd give a slight edge to the Broncos, but I think the Patriots can get it done.

The thing I like about the matchup is that the Patriots really have nothing to lose.  I know many people probably don't feel that way, since it's Brady vs Manning yet again.

But with all of the injuries the Patriots have suffered, in my opinion they're lucky to have come this far.  It's remarkable.  So even coming close at all to winning the AFC Championship would be awesome.

Yeah, I hear you on this. Put differently, the pressure is on the Broncos to win, bc that's what everyone has expected all season long. The Patriots are a bit of a "surprise" team, especially given the injuries throughout the season. 

On the injury front, I've noticed at least one article (ESPN, I believe) that says the Broncos have overcome more adversity than the Pats (due in part to Coach Fox's heart condition). So, the national narrative seems to be that both have "overcome adversity".

[Donoghus]

The nice thing about the Patriots going into this game is that they've got a bit of momentum and confidence. They've just tallied up some impressive wins the past few weeks. In contrast, the Broncos win last night was a bit of a nail-biter for them.  That said, Manning is one of the best, and the Broncos team looks really good overall - especially on offense. And they're at home. I'd give a slight edge to the Broncos, but I think the Patriots can get it done.

The thing I like about the matchup is that the Patriots really have nothing to lose.  I know many people probably don't feel that way, since it's Brady vs Manning yet again.

But with all of the injuries the Patriots have suffered, in my opinion they're lucky to have come this far.  It's remarkable.  So even coming close at all to winning the AFC Championship would be awesome.

Yeah, I hear you on this. Put differently, the pressure is on the Broncos to win, bc that's what everyone has expected all season long. The Patriots are a bit of a "surprise" team, especially given the injuries throughout the season. 

On the injury front, I've noticed at least one article (ESPN, I believe) that says the Broncos have overcome more adversity than the Pats (due in part to Coach Fox's heart condition). So, the national narrative seems to be that both have "overcome adversity".

I guess it depends on how you define adversity. From a pure injury & off the field sideshow standpoint, I don't know how someone can say that Denver has faced more adversity than New England.

Heck, the place kicker was punting on Saturday night and Brady was holding kicks.  That's on top of the season ending injuries to Mayo, Wilfork, Kelly, Spikes, Gronk, etc...

Team has been absolutely ravaged by the injury bug this season.

[Atzar]

The Patriots make no sense.  At all.

Before the season you lose Hernandez, Welker, and Lloyd (who in my opinion was undervalued in his time here).  Gronk was out to start the year, comes back, and goes down with another injury.  On defense, your three best defensive players (Wilfork, Mayo and Talib) have all missed time, and two of them are out for the year.  Now you have no Spikes as well.  Your starting RB couldn't take care of the ball and has slid down the depth chart a little bit.

Somehow with all of that you're one of the last four teams standing.  Peyton Manning will win the MVP award, and for the stats he has accumulated he should.  But Brady and Belichick have arguably turned in the best performance of their careers this year.  LeGarrette Blount, who I thought was the third or possibly fourth option at RB to start the year (behind Ridley, Bolden and maybe Vereen), randomly morphed into one of the best backs in the NFL over the past three weeks just when the games started to matter most.  They have no business being here, yet here they are. 

[D.o.s.]

Two years ago, Peyton Manning was recovering from what could have been career-ending neck surgery.

Two years ago, Tom Brady was throwing to real receivers.

Adversity comes in many forms.

[kozlodoev]

I too thought taking the safety was the right move. Sure you save 2 points by falling on the ball there, but it would've been at about the 3-yard line, which is pretty much an automatic touchdown. Instead, they surrender just the two, and on the following Colts possession, the Pats intercepted Luck. Eat that, Dierdorf.

I agree. My math is something like this. If you give up the ball, the expected loss is about 6+ points (let's say 80% touchdowns and 20% field goals).

If you take the safety, you spot them 2 points.
If the expected points for 1 possession is more than 4 points, then you don't trust your defense.

The only time you *don't* take that safety is maybe if you are down by 4 late in the game. Then a safety + field goal makes it a two possession game PLUS minutes off the clock, whereas a goal line stand keeps it 1 possession and takes minimal time.

I just had the chance to see the actual play. How did this not draw a flag when the Colts player lead helmet-first into Allen, who is considered a defenseless player for the entire possession.

The rules make them defenseless players at all times, which means no hits to the helmet/neck or with the helmet.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/17/punters-are-defenseless-even-when-trying-to-make-a-tackle/

edit: Perhaps this rule doesn't apply, since a punt didn't actually take place -- but the helmet-ramming was clearly illegal even under regular tackling rules. In fact, the whole play looks like it violates a whole basket of rules: leading with the helmet, helmet-to-helmet hit, and violently hitting a player who was already being held.

[Cman]

The nice thing about the Patriots going into this game is that they've got a bit of momentum and confidence. They've just tallied up some impressive wins the past few weeks. In contrast, the Broncos win last night was a bit of a nail-biter for them.  That said, Manning is one of the best, and the Broncos team looks really good overall - especially on offense. And they're at home. I'd give a slight edge to the Broncos, but I think the Patriots can get it done.

The thing I like about the matchup is that the Patriots really have nothing to lose.  I know many people probably don't feel that way, since it's Brady vs Manning yet again.

But with all of the injuries the Patriots have suffered, in my opinion they're lucky to have come this far.  It's remarkable.  So even coming close at all to winning the AFC Championship would be awesome.

Yeah, I hear you on this. Put differently, the pressure is on the Broncos to win, bc that's what everyone has expected all season long. The Patriots are a bit of a "surprise" team, especially given the injuries throughout the season. 

On the injury front, I've noticed at least one article (ESPN, I believe) that says the Broncos have overcome more adversity than the Pats (due in part to Coach Fox's heart condition). So, the national narrative seems to be that both have "overcome adversity".

I guess it depends on how you define adversity. From a pure injury & off the field sideshow standpoint, I don't know how someone can say that Denver has faced more adversity than New England.

Heck, the place kicker was punting on Saturday night and Brady was holding kicks.  That's on top of the season ending injuries to Mayo, Wilfork, Kelly, Spikes, Gronk, etc...

Team has been absolutely ravaged by the injury bug this season.

I completely agree. But Chadiha sees it otherwise:

1. Which team has the emotional advantage? As much as New England has faced adversity throughout this entire season -- from former tight end Aaron Hernandez being charged with murder to numerous injuries to Pro Bowl players -- the Broncos have endured more.

They've lost their own fair share of star players for the season (including outside linebacker Von Miller and left tackle Ryan Clady) while also watching Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey hobble through the worst year of his career with a lingering foot injury. Their head coach, John Fox, was sidelined for a month after he underwent heart surgery. Even though they'd never admit, they've also had to remember how painful last season was, when they were upset at home in a divisional playoff loss to Baltimore.

The Patriots certainly have proved themselves to be a resilient bunch. But the Broncos have shown repeatedly that they will not lose their focus, regardless of the circumstances. This is a team that seems to have grown closer and tougher over the past 12 months and that will be something that works in Denver's favor next Sunday.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/10285112/2013-nfl-playoffs-ten-questions-patriots-broncos-afc-title-game

[Donoghus]

I too thought taking the safety was the right move. Sure you save 2 points by falling on the ball there, but it would've been at about the 3-yard line, which is pretty much an automatic touchdown. Instead, they surrender just the two, and on the following Colts possession, the Pats intercepted Luck. Eat that, Dierdorf.

I agree. My math is something like this. If you give up the ball, the expected loss is about 6+ points (let's say 80% touchdowns and 20% field goals).

If you take the safety, you spot them 2 points.
If the expected points for 1 possession is more than 4 points, then you don't trust your defense.

The only time you *don't* take that safety is maybe if you are down by 4 late in the game. Then a safety + field goal makes it a two possession game PLUS minutes off the clock, whereas a goal line stand keeps it 1 possession and takes minimal time.

I just had the chance to see the actual play. How did this not draw a flag when the Colts player lead helmet-first into Allen, who is considered a defenseless player for the entire possession.

The rules make them defenseless players at all times, which means no hits to the helmet/neck or with the helmet.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/17/punters-are-defenseless-even-when-trying-to-make-a-tackle/

edit: Perhaps this rule doesn't apply, since a punt didn't actually take place -- but the helmet-ramming was clearly illegal even under regular tackling rules. In fact, the whole play looks like it violates a whole basket of rules: leading with the helmet, helmet-to-helmet hit, and violently hitting a player who was already being held.

Yeah, the ball was never actually punted so I'm pretty sure that renders the whole defenseless thing moot. 

A kicker/punter during the kick or during the return (Also see Article 6(g) for additional restrictions against a
kicker/punter);

The tackler had his hands up as he went into Allen. He also went into Allen's upper chest area.   The refs aren't gonna call that in that situation.  Guy is wrapped up like 40 yards behind the line of scrimmage. It's a huge play and would be a ticky-tack call at best. Personally, I don't think there was anything egregious about that tackle especially since Allen is the ball carrier there.

EDIT: See around the 50 second mark

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-plays/0ap2000000312134/Divisional-Round-Can-t-Miss-Play-Punt-Safety

[kozlodoev]

Guy is wrapped up like 40 yards behind the line of scrimmage.

Yep, there's a rule against that too (excessive hits against players that are already wrapped up).

The defenseless player is not entirely moot though, since Allen is also defenseless if he's trying to make a pass. And again, even without that, it's still a bad hit leading with the helmet.

[Donoghus]

Guy is wrapped up like 40 yards behind the line of scrimmage.

Yep, there's a rule against that too (excessive hits against players that are already wrapped up).

The defenseless player is not entirely moot though, since Allen is also defenseless if he's trying to make a pass. And again, even without that, it's still a bad hit leading with the helmet.

I just don't see anything penalty worthy on that play.  Just not seeing it.