Early Returns on Melo

[European NBA fan]

Celtics own Maine Red Claws and they hired a new coach, Mike Taylor, who is known for developing young players. I posted this before, but I think it's quite relevant for this discussion.
 

“Mike impressed us with not only his coaching experience, but his enthusiasm and ability to develop young players,” said Boston Celtics Director of Player Personnel Austin Ainge. “He brings a blend of international and NBA D-League experience that will benefit the Celtics’ players assigned to Maine and the entire Red Claws’ roster.”

Because of the new rules (teams can send players to the D-league as many times as they want), Melo can play games with the Red Claws and come to Waltham and practice with the Celtics, whenever it's possible. That way he should get the best of both worlds (except from actual NBA playing time).

[snively]

He has excellent speed and, more importanly, quickness for a 7-footer.  I can see him developing into a very effective pick and roll defender as well as a solid shot-blocker. Offensively, his physical assets will make him a solid finisher around the paint.

Rebounding is still the big question mark.  If he can rebound, I think he can be a solid starting center - a Sam Dalembert in his prime type.  If he can't rebound than maybe a Steven Hunter type.

[nickagneta]

I am not sure using the per36 metric to judge young talent is a fair metric. Often projects are playing garbage minutes against the end of the bench players of another team and very few minutes. They play those minutes because they just are not good enough to getting regular playing time yet.

So I think Ben Wallace, O'Neal and Gerald Wallace are good examples. Kendrick Perkins is another. Possibly Andray Blatche if he can ever grow up and act like an adult and apply himself.

[ManUp]

Dan Gadzuric pt.2

[snively]

Question for general discussion:

Who in the NBA fits the profile of "Known Project upon entering draft" that showed nothing for 2 years or more that developed into a decent or better player?

Ben Wallace comes to mind, though in terms of showing "something" he had >10 boards, >2 blocks and > 1.5 steals per 36 minutes his first 2 seasons.

Jermaine Oneal was a 14.5/9.7/2 blocks per 36 as a rookie, so you could see that coming.


Basically I'm curious: I always hear about "projects," but it seems to me that "projects," if they are ever going to be "something," have pretty telling per minute averages early in their careers. It seems to very rarely work like baseball or something. Rather, it seems that "projects" if successful have excellent per minute averages right away that just improve and are maintained as minutes expand (like Big Al).



Thoughts?

Desagana Diop, Kwame Brown, Ersan Ilyasova, Darko - these guys had some pretty terrible rookie campaigns on a per minute basis and managed to put together pretty good seasons later in their careers.

[ScoobyDoo]

Good point regarding young players showing some flashes early in their careers. Sully has showed some, Joseph showed us a little last night, etc.

maybe it's tougher for big men - Perk was a disaster his 1st couple years. He could barely stay on the floor because of foul trouble.

Melo just looks goofy to me so far.

Maybe once:
1. The game slows down for him
2. He knows where to be on rotations
3. He learns how to seal guys and throw his weight around on D and when clearing glass

He'll look like a different player. Again, cheering for the kid and not ruling his potential out, but guys like Ezeli and PJIII just looks much more like you can see them "getting it" or "being there" as players at their position.

I'm hoping that even though Melo is raw, once he gets it his ceiling will be very high.     

[Eddie20]

I'm hoping Melo can turn into something, maybe just a good defensive center who can rebound. But the early returns look rugged to me. He he just seems awkward and completely out of place at the moment.

The guy I wanted with 22 was Festus Ezeli - just thought he'd be a good pick. Tough, physical, pretty athletic and a good rim protector as well. Perry Jones was obviously on the radar, but with Jeff Green in the fold, I thought the combo of Sully and Ezeli would give us much needed toughness and rebounding.

I know Melo is young and is apparently a good learner and hard worker - and I remember it also took Perk 3-4 years before he coudl start, but do you guys think Melo can/will really "get there?".

What are your early returns on him?

I also wanted Ezeli instead of Melo. I be surprise if Melo will still be in the league in 4 years.  He was one guy i was hoping the Celtics would pass on. But hope he proves me wrong

I would love to take that bet! The guy just turned 22, is a legitimate 7 footer, is already a good shotblocker, is athletic, and has only played 3 seasons of basketball (1 HS/2 College). Plus, he's shown dedication by cutting weight and improving his game. Gorman even talked about how he's a good kid who always stays after practice to work on his game. This is not Patrick O'Bryant, who actually played more years in the NBA (5) than what you think Melo will.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

Celtics own Maine Red Claws and they hired a new coach, Mike Taylor, who is known for developing young players. I posted this before, but I think it's quite relevant for this discussion.
 

“Mike impressed us with not only his coaching experience, but his enthusiasm and ability to develop young players,” said Boston Celtics Director of Player Personnel Austin Ainge. “He brings a blend of international and NBA D-League experience that will benefit the Celtics’ players assigned to Maine and the entire Red Claws’ roster.”

Because of the new rules (teams can send players to the D-league as many times as they want), Melo can play games with the Red Claws and come to Waltham and practice with the Celtics, whenever it's possible. That way he should get the best of both worlds (except from actual NBA playing time).

Yep. Not only that but we can now install the same defense/offense we use with The Celts and run it in Maine. So, yes, it wont be NBA experience but it should help him pick up everything we run with the big guys, without all the pressure (scrutiny).

[Who]

Question for general discussion:

Who in the NBA fits the profile of "Known Project upon entering draft" that showed nothing for 2 years or more that developed into a decent or better player?

Ben Wallace comes to mind, though in terms of showing "something" he had >10 boards, >2 blocks and > 1.5 steals per 36 minutes his first 2 seasons.

Jermaine Oneal was a 14.5/9.7/2 blocks per 36 as a rookie, so you could see that coming.


Basically I'm curious: I always hear about "projects," but it seems to me that "projects," if they are ever going to be "something," have pretty telling per minute averages early in their careers. It seems to very rarely work like baseball or something. Rather, it seems that "projects" if successful have excellent per minute averages right away that just improve and are maintained as minutes expand (like Big Al).



Thoughts?

I think in "hustle related stats" (rebounds, blocks, steals) ... raw production on a per minute basis (if there is enough minutes) is very telling.

Most players come with a certain level of athleticism and work ethic and those tools allow them to make "effort plays" right from the start.

The main areas of improvement from that initial point are are - (1) efficiency related (2) defense, individual and team defense (3) operating within the structure the team ... rather than raw production especially in "effort" related stats.

Scoring (and assists) is an area where there is more variance. Take a guy like Joe Johnson who was a 10.9 points per 36 minutes guy who turned into a 25ppg in the NBA. Or a guy like Scottie Pippen (13.6 per 16 into a 20ppg threat).

In terms of bigs, I think bigs who are offensively capable players tend to stand out at a young age because they are so rare. They are well-known early and usually show those talents early in their NBA career. I think less bigs vs perimeter guys go from so-so offensive players to very good offensive threats. That's my theory anyway.

[Fan from VT]

Good point regarding young players showing some flashes early in their careers. Sully has showed some, Joseph showed us a little last night, etc.

maybe it's tougher for big men - Perk was a disaster his 1st couple years. He could barely stay on the floor because of foul trouble.

Melo just looks goofy to me so far.

Maybe once:
1. The game slows down for him
2. He knows where to be on rotations
3. He learns how to seal guys and throw his weight around on D and when clearing glass

He'll look like a different player. Again, cheering for the kid and not ruling his potential out, but guys like Ezeli and PJIII just looks much more like you can see them "getting it" or "being there" as players at their position.

I'm hoping that even though Melo is raw, once he gets it his ceiling will be very high.   

Yeah, but even perk had some signs...incredible per minute rebounds, good per minute scoring, very good blocks. He eventually was able to cut down the fouling enough to become a very good center for a few years.

With Melo, we'll have to see if in his time this year he good per minute in any area at all. If so, then i'll be hopeful for some future value if he can expand his minutes. We'll see.

[Celtics18]

Good point regarding young players showing some flashes early in their careers. Sully has showed some, Joseph showed us a little last night, etc.

maybe it's tougher for big men - Perk was a disaster his 1st couple years. He could barely stay on the floor because of foul trouble.

Melo just looks goofy to me so far.

Maybe once:
1. The game slows down for him
2. He knows where to be on rotations
3. He learns how to seal guys and throw his weight around on D and when clearing glass

He'll look like a different player. Again, cheering for the kid and not ruling his potential out, but guys like Ezeli and PJIII just looks much more like you can see them "getting it" or "being there" as players at their position.

I'm hoping that even though Melo is raw, once he gets it his ceiling will be very high.   

Yeah, but even perk had some signs...incredible per minute rebounds, good per minute scoring, very good blocks. He eventually was able to cut down the fouling enough to become a very good center for a few years.

With Melo, we'll have to see if in his time this year he good per minute in any area at all. If so, then i'll be hopeful for some future value if he can expand his minutes. We'll see.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him put up some decent per minute numbers this year in the categories of shot blocking and rebounding. 

[crimson_stallion]

I think he's going to be a nice player for us, and maybe sooner than people thing too.

I don't think Melo needs to be a good offensive player to get minutes and be effective in this league - he just needs to improve to the point where he's not an offensive liability. 

Look at how Darko has played for us up until now - he's been almost useless at putting he ball in the basket in he preseason, but he hasn't been a liability at least...and so he has impressed us all (including Doc) with his rebounding, shot blocking, hustle and even his nice passing game.

Melo has already been playing nicely in defense/effort areas, he has been (IMHO) out best P&R defender after KG when he's been on the floor and he's actually not putting up bad per 36 minutes numbers.

He's rebounded pretty decently (8.5 RP48), blocking shots at a decent rate (1.3 BP48) and he's been living up to Doc's claim that he's a nice passer (3.3 AP48).

The only things he's done badly are turn the ball over (5.2 TP48), pick up fouls (6.5 FP36), and score (no points at all).

These are all the areas you'd expect a guy as raw as Melo to struggle at, because IMHO his biggest problems are confidence and learning where to be.

His terrible shot atteampts - which haven't even been close to going in - I put down to confidence, his turnovers I put down to concidence, and his picking up of fouls I put down to just not knowing where to be on defense.

In a couple of years time, if he can put up what he's averaging now in 36 minutes (3.5 Ass, 8.5 Reb, 1.3 Blk), play good defense and get past those three trouble areas...then with his physical gifts he's going to be a really solid starting center.

Fab's only 5 games in to the season and I feel like he's already starting to look a LITTLE big more comfortable in the last game or two than he did at the start.  After half a season or so of being with the team I think he will look a lot less nervous out there and the turnovers and fouls will go down. 


Either way, if Ryan Hollins can stay in the league this long (and play meaningful minutes for us in the playoffs) than Fab definately has a future.

[lon3lytoaster]

I like that he wants to learn to play and seems to take the initiative to do it. KG likes him, so there's hope. Prior to us drafting him I thought he had a bad attitude.. But by all accounts he's a great personality to have.

If he wants it, he can be a valuable player in the league

[cman88]

when hes out there, I see the same thing I saw with Avery Bradley his rookie year...someone who has potential but looks nervous out there, trying to do too much/hesitant.

I think with some time as well as confidence he can be a solid contributer in the league.

[SHAQATTACK]

when hes out there, I see the same thing I saw with Avery Bradley his rookie year...someone who has potential but looks nervous out there, trying to do too much/hesitant.

I think with some time as well as confidence he can be a solid contributer in the league.

I totally agree,  I hadn't watched /or knew much or AB as college player, so I was really puzzled at all the patience DA/Doc was having to develope him.

Fab Melo is STRONG  FAST and he s SUPER HEALTHY ... he doesn't come in with bad back , kness, or health issues for a true 7' Center.  Melo has the frame to build himself up to a Howard like body. He can hold the weight, just make it muscle.

I'm just guessing that DA and Doc think they can mold this kid into a future starting center. 

Fab needs tons  tons  tons of court time and practice 8 hours a day AFTER everybody else has went home.