There is no way we can pencil in 10 guys as 10-15ppg scoreres - it's just not going to work (team would average ~130 ppg).
I never said that we would have 5 guys on our bench giving us 10-15 PPG. All I said is that everyone from 1-4 on our bench is capable of scoring 10-15 points (assuming they get the minutes and have a good shooting night).
There are probably going to be nights (like after back to backs, etc) where our bench guys are going to be asked to play a bigger role so our starters can rest. On those nights I think very possible that Terry and Green can give us 12-15 apiece in around 30 minutes, with Lee and Sully giving us 8-12 in >20 mins. On a night like that we're looking at 40 - 55 points from our bench, and there aren't a lot of teams in the league who can genuinely say their bench is capable of that.
Take a look at our team last season. The only guy off our bench who was genuinely capable of double figure scoring was Pietrus, and he was streaky as hell. Other than that we had Dooling, Marquis, Wilcox and Stiemsma and neither of those guys could be expected to score in double figures scorer even if they did play 25+ minutes.
I predict that the scoring / minutes from our starting lineup this season will be something like this:
Garnett - 14 PPG @ 28 min
Bass - 11 PPG @ 28 min
Pierce - 16 PPG @ 28 min
Bradley - 10 PPG @ 25 min
Rondo - 15 PPG @ 35 min
This is obviously assuming that Bradley and Bass are starting once Bradley returns. I don't think a single guy on this team bar Rondo is going to average over 30 minutes this season because we just have too much depth, and if starters play more than that our key bench guys don't get the playin time they deserve.
I think KG and Pierce are going to play at the same level they did in the second half of last season, but their scoring output will drop slightly due to drop in minutes. I also think their efficiency will increase becuase they are going to be coming into the season off a full training camp - they should be better conditioned than last year AND less tired due to reduced minutes.
I think Rondo will play similar minutes (maybe a minute less) per night simply becuase he's so important to our offense, but I have a feeling his scoring is going to jump up by 2-3 PPG based on his improved shooting touch in the playoffs last year and in the preseason so far. If he simply increased his FT% up to 70% then he'll probably get another 2 PPG from that alone. I also see Rondo's offensive efficiency increasing with his gradually improving shooting and expect he will be right back up around his career 48% mark from the field.
If Rondo can put up 15 PPG (while shooting 48% / 32% / 70%) along with 5 RPG, 11 APG and 2 SPG I think he will be top 5 in MVP voting without a doubt.
I think Bass and Bradley (if they start) are not going to play more than about 25 - 28 minutes a night, and will probably both be borderline double figure scorers at 9 - 11 PPG.
That's the starters, now moving to the bench:
Terry - 11 PPG @ 22 mins
Lee - 6 PPG @ 14 mins
Green - 12 PPG @ 25 mins
Sullinger - 6 PPG @ 15 mins
Milicic - 4 PPG @ 20 mins
I think we have two guys on our bench (Terry and Green) who are going to be consistent double figure scorers. I think those two guys will each give us between between 8 - 16 points off the bench every night (depending on minutes, matchups, whether they are hot, etc). This is definately not unrealistic target because we got exactly that from Jeff Green (10 PPG) and Big Baby (12 PPG) in 10-11 season.
Lee hasn't ever really scored more than about 10 points per 30 minutes, so 6-7 points in 14 minutes seems about right. One spot-up three, one layup, one made free throw and that's 6 points right there.
Sullinger I think will get most of the backup minutes behind Bass, and I think he will score at a relatively similar rate to what he has in preseason (give or take). That suggests about 6 points in 15 minutes which sounds about right to me. It pretty much equates to one inside shot off an assist, one putback off an offensive rebound and two made free throws.
Milicic is unlikely be much of a scorer for us from what I've seen, and he won't be expected to score. He might get anywhere from 2 - 5 points a night just from garbage points and the occasional free throws. I don't expect him to be a significant part of the offense and think he'll be out there more for defense and rebounding than anything.
I think Wilcox' minutes (if he gets many) will be split with Milicic at the center spot depending on whether we want to go big or athletic.
I think the above numbers look pretty realistic, and if you add them all up you get 39 PPG from out bench. That would be:
1. About 3x what we got from our bench last year
2. The most we've probably every had in the big 3 era
3. One of the highest outputs of any team in the NBA
If all of this comes true then this team will average 100+ PPG and should once again have the offensive firepower to match our dominant defence.
If we can rank top 10 in offense while remaining a top 3 defensive team, we will be VERY hard to beat...and I think that's realistically possible given the talent we have.
This excites me
Topic: Quality of our starting 5 and impact of our second unit (Read 7925 times)