Once again, I doubt either Edgar or I will have a lot of time to devote to this series due to time commitments. We'll give our quick thoughts, and will try to answer any questions later.
This series, realistically, comes down to who can limit the other team's superstar more. There are a ton of good players here, but realistically, it's Lebron vs. Dwight.
Defending Dwight: We feel like we can limit Dwight. We'll be throwing both Brand and Varejao at him. Why Brand?
In the four most recent Brand vs. Howard matchups, Howard is shooting 40.6%. In only one of those games did he shoot 50%. Howard is averaging 18.25 points per game, but he's struggling to do it.
Is this a fluke? No, for anybody who has been paying attention to Elton Brand. The guy is an excellent defender, with a 7'5" wingspan. For Celtics fans who didn't see Brand play a lot, here are some articles talking about his defense:
Whereas Garnett started with every physical tool possible to go with his intellect, Brand is a more unlikely defensive success story. Few big men listed at 6-9, 254 qualify as elite defenders, but Brand has taken to his role as an interior anchor under Doug Collins. As Tom Haberstroh noted for ESPN Insider a few weeks ago, Brand meets every criteria for Defensive Player of the Year. He plays for an elite defense and his Synergy numbers are outstanding (at 0.67 points per possession to roll men, he's second to Garnett, and he was second among the big men I looked at with 0.59 points allowed per post-up). Brand is a little behind Garnett in box-score defensive stats and RAPM value, but the gap between the two is narrow.
Yet with seven games left in the season, it would take a catastrophe to move Brand off the top of the charts of a handful of advanced metrics that measure defense. Notably, Brand is ninth in defensive win shares, which measures the number of wins a player contributes with his defense.
More impressive, Brand is third overall in the NBA in defensive rating behind only Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard. Perhaps a more subjective statistic than win shares, defensive rating is an estimate of the player's points allowed per 100 defensive possessions. In that category Brand’s 94.8 is slightly behind Howard at 94.7 and Garnett at 94.3.
That's right, Brand's defense compared favorably to KG's and D12's.
Brand ranked 14th in the entire NBA in post-up defense, and 9th overall in defending the pick-and-roll. Of course, Brand isn't our only guy who will be defending Dwight. We've got Varejao, a very good defender. The one time they matched up last year, Varejao held Howard to 5-of-12 shooting.
For his career, Varejao has held Howard to 16.6 points per game.
Then, there's the deeper bench. Robin Lopez is a legit 7-footer, and Joel Anthony plays tough defense. Since 2010, Howard has averaged 16.9 points in games Anthony plays in. Not bad for a Miami team "without a center".
Nobody Is Stopping LebronDwight Howard is an excellent defender. That doesn't mean he can defend Lebron. Lebron and D12 have matched up in six games in the playoffs.
Lebron averaged 38.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 blocks. The regular season isn't much different; Lebron is averaging 27/8/7 against Dwight.
In other words, Lebron is going to get his. He's going to put Howard into foul trouble, too. In those playoffs matchups,
Howard is averaging 5.3 personal fouls per game. Who is going to back up Howard when he's sitting on the pine? The 6'6" Chuck Hayes, who averaged 3 points and 4 rebounds last year?
Then, there's Paul Milsap, who will be called upon to defend Lebron as his primary defensive assignment.
Injuries Matter:Howard has a bad back, and is going to miss the start of the season. Ricky Rubio tore up his knee, and hasn't even been cleared to start running yet. It's fair to project that both players are going to lose a lot of their athleticism, especially in their first year back from injury.
Dallas Is Much More Efficient:Here are the eFG% / TS% of Dallas' top-eight:
Lebron .554 / .605
Irving .517 / .566
Green .505 / .553
Sefolosha .532 / .584
Varejao .514 / .542
Gordon .501 / .549
Dunleavy .557 / .597
Brand: .494 / .521
Compare that to Portland's:
Dwight Howard: .573 / .569
Ricky Rubio:
.398 / .476Joe Johnson: .521 / .557
Wilson Chandler:
.411 / .445Paul Millsap: .499 / .545
Beno Udrih: .465 / .488
Chuck Hayes:
.429 / .459That's a huge, huge disparity in shooting and efficiency.
Overall, Why Dallas Wins:Dallas is the most versatile team in the league. We can play a defense-first lineup, with Varejao/Brand/Lebron/Thabo (all top-notch defenders). We can go all-offense, with Brand/Lebron/Green or Dunleavy/Gordon/Irving.
The Mavs (CrotoNats) have better shooting, better overall size, and a more cohesive team unit that fits together. Unlike the Blazers, their players aren't dealing with long-term injuries. They've got the perfect complement to Lebron in Kyrie Irving, who is the best rookie PG since Chris Paul. They've got the best perimeter defender in the world in Thabo Sefolosha, and an elite post defender in Elton Brand. Lastly, they have the best PF (and SF) on earth, in Lebron James. Lebron isn't going to be stopped.