CB Draft Western Finals: (1) Mavericks vs. (2) Blazers

[jgod213]

Sorry for my tardiness.  Here's what I wrote up earlier.  I'll respond to any further questions thrown my way..



Defending LeBron:

While LeBron James proved himself to be a force last year in the playoffs, the Blazers can offer what no other team can in terms of defending James.  A grouping of versatile options backed by the best defender in the national basketball association.

Paul Millsap will have his hands full with LeBron, but he can make him work for it.  Millsap ranked out as the 32nd best defender in isolation, 57th in P&R defense, and 23rd in screen defense.  And though LeBron is the better athlete, both men are nearly identical in size.  Very few power forwards in the league can stay with LeBron James, but Millsap should prove to be one of the few that is at least up for the task of trying.

The Blazers will also throw the versatile Wilson Chandler and Joe Johnson at James in order to change up his looks  – a gameplan that Doc Rivers has used in the past with success.  Matt Barnes will even get a look, as James has only shot higher than 48% in games against Barnes 3 times out of the last 10 games. 

Sefelosha and his 5ppg isn’t a matchup concern if Chandler or even Millsap had to switch onto him.  Although Jeff Green is a scoring threat, Johnson, Chandler, and Millsap all have the size and athleticism to switch effectively.

Ultimately what gets this “contain James” defense to work is Dwight Howard anchoring the defense. 

Last year in 4 matchups:

James -    19 pts, 10 rebounds, 8 assists on 40% fg, 33% from 3, 4 TO’s
Howard – 21 pts, 15 rebounds, 2 assists on 57% fg

A lot of credit has to go to the Orlando wings for closing out on LeBron, but there’s no doubt that  Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap, and Joe Johnson can do just as good as, ehh… definitely better than Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, and Ryan Anderson.



Welcome to the DWIGHTMARE!

Dwight Howard.  Unstoppable.

This is a nightmare scenario for Dallas.

Yes Elton Brand is beating back father time defensively, and yes the man has long arms, but he can’t get off the floor!

By the time this matchup comes about, Elton Brand will be 34.  He’s only 6’9’’.  He’s going to be trusted with containing Dwight Howard!?!  Since 2010, Howard has consistently put up his against Brand, going for 21 and 15 on 52% shooting.  Those numbers are only going to go up as both men age and while Brand is playing next to a Small Forward defensively.

Anderson Varajeo? Pah-please.  In head to head playoff matchups, Dwight is averaging 26 and 13 on 65% shooting!   

Unstoppable.

Add to all of this that Dwight will be playing with the best collection of offensive and defensive talent that he’s ever been surrounded with.  This all spells bigtime trouble for Dallas.



Injuries don’t matter!

Dwight Howard will be missing the first month or so of the regular season.  Ricky Rubio will miss a week maybe?

This Blazers team doesn’t take the second seed in the West and defeat the likes of New Orleans and Los Angeles with a hobbled Howard and Rubio.  Even Roy knows that.  I mean does he really want to get into Anderson Varajeo’s fractured wrist?  Elton Brand’s deteriorating body, or Jeff Green’s heart??  Personally I figure if both teams have made it this far then those things are in the past.




Why does Portland Win?

I have no doubt this series would go to 7 games, and we all know anything can happen in a game 7 scenario.  While LeBron will slice and dice my defense, he will find that jumpshooting will be far more comfortable when compared to finishing over the best defender in the NBA.  Add to that he’s exchanging his proven superstar, champion sidekick in Dwayne Wade for a 2nd year point guard who is not 1/10th the defender that Wade is.  If Dwight stumbles, who can he defer to?  One of the best pure scorers in the game in Joe Johnson, a pure point guard in Ricky Rubio, and two proven scorers in Chandler and Millsap.

If LeBron stumbles, a trip to the NBA Finals might fall into the hands of a 20 year old kid with zero previous playoff experience and a small forward who hasn’t played good basketball in 2 years.  I’ll take my chances with Joe Johnson and Paul Millsap.

[Roy H.]

While LeBron James proved himself to be a force last year in the playoffs, the Blazers can offer what no other team can in terms of defending James.  A grouping of versatile options backed by the best defender in the national basketball association.

Paul Millsap will have his hands full with LeBron, but he can make him work for it.  Millsap ranked out as the 32nd best defender in isolation, 57th in P&R defense, and 23rd in screen defense.  And though LeBron is the better athlete, both men are nearly identical in size.  Very few power forwards in the league can stay with LeBron James, but Millsap should prove to be one of the few that is at least up for the task of trying.

The Blazers will also throw the versatile Wilson Chandler and Joe Johnson at James in order to change up his looks  – a gameplan that Doc Rivers has used in the past with success.  Matt Barnes will even get a look, as James has only shot higher than 48% in games against Barnes 3 times out of the last 10 games. 

Millsap can't defend Lebron; he simply doesn't have the athleticism or the speed.  Neither can Chandler (Lebron's stats: 32.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 52.7% FG%, 40.6% 3PT%, 10 wins, 1 loss).  Even Howard can't limit him (Lebron:  38.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, 8.0 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 blocks last time he faced Howard in the playoffs).

Sefelosha and his 5ppg isn’t a matchup concern if Chandler or even Millsap had to switch onto him.  Although Jeff Green is a scoring threat, Johnson, Chandler, and Millsap all have the size and athleticism to switch effectively.

Thabo is an excellent shooter who will make you pay if you leave him open.  If you cover him, that means you'll be taking one of your forwards away from the basket, giving the Mavs a rebounding advantage.)

By the time this matchup comes about, Elton Brand will be 34.  He’s only 6’9’’.  He’s going to be trusted with containing Dwight Howard!?!  Since 2010, Howard has consistently put up his against Brand, going for 21 and 15 on 52% shooting.  Those numbers are only going to go up as both men age and while Brand is playing next to a Small Forward defensively.

Elton Brand is an elite defender with a 7'5" wingpan.  In the last four games, Howard has shot 40.6% against Brand, and has hit 50% of his shots in only one of those matchups.

Add to all of this that Dwight will be playing with the best collection of offensive and defensive talent that he’s ever been surrounded with.  This all spells bigtime trouble for Dallas.

He'll also be playing coming off back surgery.

Injuries don’t matter!

Dwight Howard will be missing the first month or so of the regular season.  Ricky Rubio will miss a week maybe?

This is a sham argument.  Anybody who says that back injuries and ACL injuries don't affect a player is just trying to sell you something.

Why does Portland Win?

I have no doubt this series would go to 7 games, and we all know anything can happen in a game 7 scenario.  While LeBron will slice and dice my defense, he will find that jumpshooting will be far more comfortable when compared to finishing over the best defender in the NBA.  Add to that he’s exchanging his proven superstar, champion sidekick in Dwayne Wade for a 2nd year point guard who is not 1/10th the defender that Wade is.  If Dwight stumbles, who can he defer to?  One of the best pure scorers in the game in Joe Johnson, a pure point guard in Ricky Rubio, and two proven scorers in Chandler and Millsap.

If LeBron stumbles, a trip to the NBA Finals might fall into the hands of a 20 year old kid with zero previous playoff experience and a small forward who hasn’t played good basketball in 2 years.  I’ll take my chances with Joe Johnson and Paul Millsap.

1) This series won't go seven games, and if it does, Lebron isn't losing on his home court; and

2) Lebron isn't going to stumble.

[Kane3387]

This is for both teams and the answer will ultimately decide for me who wins this series. So please be thorough because I am sure it could help other GMs with their votes as well.

In 2008-09 Dwight and LeBron matched up in the Conference Finals. Dwight's team won 4-2. At this point LeBron was still adored and had relatively no critics in the media. After game 2 of this series LeBron was definitely seen as clutch thanks to his game winning 3. Instead there was no criticism for James at all. Rather it was all for Big Z, Varejao, Delonte, Mo "All-Star fill in" Williams, Mike Brown, and others. James was the MVP and really the only difference for him that season was that he was younger and not coming off a championship. If he had Wade and Bosh maybe he would have.

Howard was the Defensive Player of the Year and definitely healthy. He was playing with an All-Star at the time in Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis. Hedo Turkoglu was playing outstanding and looked at as very underrated.

So here is the question.

How do these two Superstars current teams differ from the teams back then? I see similarities for both supporting casts. Please both of you tell me about how you view both.

Brand/Varejao, Green, Thabo and Irving as players to Big Z, Varejao, West, and Williams.
Milsap, Johnson, Chandler, and Rubio as players to Lewis, Turk, Pietrus/Reddick, and Nelson

Thanks.

[ronaldo943]

i agree with what Roy is saying but Thabo is not a good shooter if anything an average shooter

[Who]

There is no way Millsap should be the primary defender against LeBron James.

It has to be Wilson Chandler. And then Joe Johnson as the secondary option. Then Millsap as a third option but only in situational minutes and just to throw another look at LeBron James. But ... W.Chandler and JJ must do the heavy lifting against LeBron.

[Fafnir]

There is no way Millsap should be the primary defender against LeBron James.

It has to be Wilson Chandler. And then Joe Johnson as the secondary option. Then Millsap as a third option but only in situational minutes and just to throw another look at LeBron James. But ... W.Chandler and JJ must do the heavy lifting against LeBron.

Yeah the C's ended up using Bass on him simply because Pierce/Pietrus were getting torched so bad and it kinda sorta worked in that he didn't get torched any worse so why not spare Pierce the burden.

Its not a good idea to approach LBJ running at the PF spot in general, use your SF on him and put your PF on another guy. Make that be the mismatch, not the one on LBJ.

[jgod213]

Arguably, outside of Lebron, Portland has the bigger "names".  They do not have the better players, though.  Dallas has a better team defense, and they have a better and much more efficient offense.

I don't see where the better "team defense" arguement comes in here.

For everything that Irving is, he is a bad defender.

He is not providing any modicum of great team defense out there.  He ranked as the 447th best defender in the NBA last season.  He is going to get knifed up by Rick Rubio.


Say what you will about Brand's impressive synergy stats, fact is there are no centers in the league that posess Howard's genetics and talents.  Brand is going to get beat in transition, beat on the boards, and beat to spots in the paint. 
 
Brand is up for the challenge to play center in this league because there are so few legitimate, talented 5's in the NBA.  It's one thing to match KG at center, or Joakim Noah at center, or Javale Mcgee at center, it's an entirely different animal when talking the best center in basketball.

--------

Let's talk Thabo real quick.

We all know his resume, but his numbers from last year are just not impressive.

He ranked 270th in iso defense and 195th in the post.

And he's supposed to stop Joe Johnson?!?

Joe Johnson...who ranked 7th in iso offense and 4th in post-up offense?

This is another matchup nightmare for Dallas.  Unless LeBron is covering everyone, the defensive edge goes to the Blazers.

[Who]

I think the main reasons Cleveland lost that series against Orlando in 2009 where:

(1) The lack of a reliable second option behind LeBron

(2) Mike Brown's dumb defensive plans that put LeBron on Rafer Alston and Delonte West on Hedo Turkoglu which freed Turkoglu up to pick apart the Cavs defense with his range of passing over the much smaller Delonte West off the pick and roll.

Plus, how scared Mike Brown got at times by Dwight's scoring so he started sending double teams again freeing up Orlando's shooters for high percentage shots instead of just letting Dwight get his and shutting down the rest of Orlando's team (which was a winning game plan).

(3) Cleveland's lack of an answer to Rashard Lewis at PF. Rashard's scoring / shooting threat on the perimeter stretched out and exposed the Cavs defense and helped create additional high percentage shots for Orlando's shooters. The Cavs PFs where all too limited offensively and Varejao lost a fair bit of his value as a team defender when he was 20 feet from the basket. It gave Orlando a major advantage.

-------------------------------------------

I don't think any of that really relates to this Dallas Mavericks team.

LeBron has a reliable second scorer in Kyrie Irving. The Blazers don't have a matchup problem like Rashard Lewis + the Mavs are well built to defend that type of an offense if they did and are solidly built to defend Millsap (with LeBron). And there is no Mike Brown to screw his team over.

[Who]

Who are the coaches for these two teams again? I keep forgetting.

[jgod213]

There is no way Millsap should be the primary defender against LeBron James.

It has to be Wilson Chandler. And then Joe Johnson as the secondary option. Then Millsap as a third option but only in situational minutes and just to throw another look at LeBron James. But ... W.Chandler and JJ must do the heavy lifting against LeBron.

That's essentially what I said in my presser-thing.

It's going to be a mixed bag as none of the three are ideal covers.

Dwight & Orlando managed to hold LeBron to 40% shooting in 4 matchups last season, so I don't see why my mixed bag of defenders won't be able to emulate what Turk and Richardson accomplished.

[StartOrien]

Throw all the stats and reports you'd like at me, I don't believe that Elton Brand can cover Dwight Howard in a 7 game series.

[StartOrien]

Likewise, Milsap hasn't a chance in the world defending Lebron

[jgod213]

So here is the question.

How do these two Superstars current teams differ from the teams back then? I see similarities for both supporting casts. Please both of you tell me about how you view both.

Brand/Varejao, Green, Thabo and Irving as players to Big Z, Varejao, West, and Williams.
Milsap, Johnson, Chandler, and Rubio as players to Lewis, Turk, Pietrus/Reddick, and Nelson

Thanks.

I think those Cavs bigs compare well to these Mavs.

Ilgauskas put up 11/8 on 45% shooting.  I don't think those numbers would change much in this series subbing in Brand for Z.  And Varejao should put up something similar to his line from then.

But what can we expect from Jeff Green?  He's obviously better than Wally, but how much can we with good conscience expect out of him? 13 points and 5 rebounds seems about right.

Basically this Mavs team is going to need to rely on Kyrie Irving to put up 20-25 a night.  Can he do it? Yeah I think it's possible.  Will he do it? Well he hasn't in real life in his matchups with Rubio and Howard yet.  I don't think he'll make that kind of jump quite yet.

Similar expectations from Mo Williams to Kyrie Irving.  Irving will fare better, but he won't be able to be who LeBron needed Williams to be - Dwayne Wade.


-----------------

Now Millsap won't provide what Lewis did, but he'll give more offensive posessions and still a reliable jumper.  Wilson Chandler won't shoot 39% but if he's getting those Turk open looks, he'll knock down open 3s.  And Joe Johnson will completely outclass what the Magic backcourt did in those playoffs.
 
Less production from the 3 point line, but better offensive players 2-5 than that Magic team.  And this Portland team boasts athletes that the Magic could not, which means a lot more points in transition and a lot more defensive capability infront of Dwight.

[Edgar]

Not only that

Remember Dallas mavericks are cute.

Now really

C: Varejao, Brand
PF: LeBron, Brand, Green
SF: Green, LeBron, Sefalosha
SG: Sefalosha, Gordon
PG: Irving, Gordon

this rotation is awesome against this team
The very own Bran can own Millsap from time to time

And not only that Howard does NOT have the same
company he had in that year
not only that Le Bron is better and improve more than Howard now
and Is in better company.

Lewis and Hedo that year were awesome, Even Jhonson this year is a question mark.

[Roy H.]

Who are the coaches for these two teams again? I keep forgetting.

Spoelstra and Bird / Vogel.