CB Draft Western Finals: (1) Mavericks vs. (2) Blazers

[Fafnir]

They're the same height, Lebron's better-faster-stronger.

I guess you could argue that Lebron might not have the discipline and could get caught cheating - Milsap's ability to finish and hit shoot w/ range could punish.

I think the issue more than anything is that the reason LeBron is a dominant SF defender is that he's quicker, longer, stronger than pretty much every other SF. PFs level the playing field on several of those attributes even a "smaller one" like Milsap.

Of course his level of comfort playing PF defensively also surely impacts it, he's guarded wings most of his career.

Now I think the offensive advantages of playing small with LBJ more than offset a decrease in his man to man defense. And his team defense is even more effective as he's closer to the rim at PF.

[jgod213]

They're the same height, Lebron's better-faster-stronger.

I guess you could argue that Lebron might not have the discipline and could get caught cheating - Milsap's ability to finish and hit shoot w/ range could punish.

I think the issue more than anything is that the reason LeBron is a dominant SF defender is that he's quicker, longer, stronger than pretty much every other SF. PFs level the playing field on several of those attributes even a "smaller one" like Milsap.

Of course his level of comfort playing PF defensively also surely impacts it, he's guarded wings most of his career.

Now I think the offensive advantages of playing small with LBJ more than offset a decrease in his man to man defense. And his team defense is even more effective as he's closer to the rim at PF.

A lot of Milsap's points come on positioning and offensive rebounds - does this typical Milsap advantage still work with LeBron on him? 

I feel like Milsap's Orebounding will at least keep James from straying too far and keep him from leaking out in transition.  Is that a fair assumption?

[StartOrien]

I feel like Milsap's Orebounding will at least keep James from straying too far and keep him from leaking out in transition.  Is that a fair assumption?

That's a fair assumption and a very good point.

[jgod213]

While I'm asking questions of the voters, here's another...

What is the gap between Rubio and Irving?

We can all agree that Irving has a higher ceiling, but where would they stand in May 2013, comparatively?

In 1 h2h matchup last year:

Rubio: 10pts, 5 asts, 2 rebounds, 3 steals, 3 turnovers 50% fg/ 0-2 from deep

Irving: 14pts, 5 asts, 5 rebounds, 0 steals, 7 turnovers 42% fg/ 1-2 from deep

*both men registered 4 fouls

This game was played in early January so not a great barometer, but will the gap by that time next year be so great that Irving will be able to assume LeBron-finals-sidekick-status? Will he be that far ahead of Rubio?

Doesn't he need to be THAT far ahead of Rubio for the Mavs to take this series?

[Kane3387]

So here is the question.

How do these two Superstars current teams differ from the teams back then? I see similarities for both supporting casts. Please both of you tell me about how you view both.

Brand/Varejao, Green, Thabo and Irving as players to Big Z, Varejao, West, and Williams.
Milsap, Johnson, Chandler, and Rubio as players to Lewis, Turk, Pietrus/Reddick, and Nelson

Thanks.

I think those Cavs bigs compare well to these Mavs.

Ilgauskas put up 11/8 on 45% shooting.  I don't think those numbers would change much in this series subbing in Brand for Z.  And Varejao should put up something similar to his line from then.

But what can we expect from Jeff Green?  He's obviously better than Wally, but how much can we with good conscience expect out of him? 13 points and 5 rebounds seems about right.

Basically this Mavs team is going to need to rely on Kyrie Irving to put up 20-25 a night.  Can he do it? Yeah I think it's possible.  Will he do it? Well he hasn't in real life in his matchups with Rubio and Howard yet.  I don't think he'll make that kind of jump quite yet.

Similar expectations from Mo Williams to Kyrie Irving.  Irving will fare better, but he won't be able to be who LeBron needed Williams to be - Dwayne Wade.


-----------------

Now Millsap won't provide what Lewis did, but he'll give more offensive posessions and still a reliable jumper.  Wilson Chandler won't shoot 39% but if he's getting those Turk open looks, he'll knock down open 3s.  And Joe Johnson will completely outclass what the Magic backcourt did in those playoffs.
 
Less production from the 3 point line, but better offensive players 2-5 than that Magic team.  And this Portland team boasts athletes that the Magic could not, which means a lot more points in transition and a lot more defensive capability infront of Dwight.

Thanks for the response. I will wait for Dallas response before I cast my vote.

[Fafnir]

I feel like Milsap's Orebounding will at least keep James from straying too far and keep him from leaking out in transition.  Is that a fair assumption?

That's a fair assumption and a very good point.

I'm not sure if it'd keep him from running or just punish him on occasion when he does run.

[dark_lord]

leaning towards dallas right now.  however, i think they are very beatable.  lbj and kyrie are great, but im not overly impressed with them as a collective unit.  lbj and kyrie are good enough to get to the conference finals, but beyond that, i think they are beatable

[Kane3387]

leaning towards dallas right now.  however, i think they are very beatable.  lbj and kyrie are great, but im not overly impressed with them as a collective unit.  lbj and kyrie are good enough to get to the conference finals, but beyond that, i think they are beatable

I agree DL. I think Portland can pull this off, but they gotta come with more evidence as to why they believe it will happen.

I would like to see more strategy and why and how that strategy will be executed.

Right now I like Dallas... But my mind isn't made up yet. I still have to see Roy Hobbs answer to my earlier questions and I expect it to be a very persuasive one.  Come on Portland. Get creative and dig a little deeper if you have the time to do so.

[nickagneta]

This is extremely close but I think the defensive pressure of an Irving/Thabo/Kleiza/leBron/Varejao lineup could be awesome and shut down Portland quite easy.

Simple formula. Deny JJ, pack it in and let LeBron roam off the Portland SF looking to steal Rubio's often too fancy passes or force Rubio to shoot. If it goes inside, foul DH.

I just can't see Portland's offense in the half court holding up to the defensive pressure the Mavs can put on them.

Mavs in 5 or 6.

[Roy H.]

Haha.  I feel like folks are rooting against us.  Remember, folks:  D12 is even more unlikeable than Lebron.  Plus, he's a lesser player, and coming off back surgery, too.

In terms of the argument about Lebron defending PFs, Lebron held PFs to a lower FG% than he did SFs.  He held PFs to the exact same scoring rate as SFs, and forced more turnovers.  Any argument that Lebron can't defend PFs adequately is simply incorrect.  Folks watched the playoffs when Lebron was effectively guarding David West, right?  Or the regular season when he shut down the 7'0" Pau Gasol?

In the playoffs, 7 of the top 8 Miami units used Lebron as a PF.  Despite playing next to one of the softest "big" men in the NBA, Lebron had Miami playing elite defense, and beyond elite offense.

I mean no offense to anybody, but the idea of Paul Millsap in any way limiting Lebron James is laughable.

[Roy H.]

This is extremely close but I think the defensive pressure of an Irving/Thabo/Kleiza/leBron/Varejao lineup could be awesome and shut down Portland quite easy.

Simple formula. Deny JJ, pack it in and let LeBron roam off the Portland SF looking to steal Rubio's often too fancy passes or force Rubio to shoot. If it goes inside, foul DH.

I just can't see Portland's offense in the half court holding up to the defensive pressure the Mavs can put on them.

Mavs in 5 or 6.

See, there's a reason nick is a fantastic Co-GM.  He and I see the game in the same way.  Very solid analysis.

One of these years, I'm going to find a way to team up with both Edgar and nick, and will create the first team that doesn't lose a vote. 

[KCattheStripe]

In terms of the argument about Lebron defending PFs, Lebron held PFs to a lower FG% than he did SFs.  He held PFs to the exact same scoring rate as SFs, and forced more turnovers.  Any argument that Lebron can't defend PFs adequately is simply incorrect.  Folks watched the playoffs when Lebron was effectively guarding David West, right? 

FOOTNOTES!

[Who]

While I'm asking questions of the voters, here's another...

What is the gap between Rubio and Irving?

We can all agree that Irving has a higher ceiling, but where would they stand in May 2013, comparatively?

I thought Rubio and Kyrie were fairly equal last year.

I didn't think Kyrie deserved as much of the praise for play as he got. For his potential, sure. For the level he was playing at, I thought it was over-done. The scoring was extremely impressive but his non-contributions where largely negative (and often overlooked). Rubio was the polar opposite and (relatively speaking to Kyrie) flew under the radar because he didn't have sexy scoring numbers.

I think Rubio's injury is a real pain here. It takes away his development time this summer while Kyrie is free to work on his game and improve. I think that is the difference between the two of them in this playoff series.

I am undecided about how much higher to rate Kyrie here though. How much to expect Kyrie to improve over the summer. 

[Kane3387]

While I'm asking questions of the voters, here's another...

What is the gap between Rubio and Irving?

We can all agree that Irving has a higher ceiling, but where would they stand in May 2013, comparatively?

I thought Rubio and Kyrie were fairly equal last year.

I didn't think Kyrie deserved as much of the praise for play as he got. For his potential, sure. For the level he was playing at, I thought it was over-done. The scoring was extremely impressive but his non-contributions where largely negative (and often overlooked). Rubio was the polar opposite and (relatively speaking to Kyrie) flew under the radar because he didn't have sexy scoring numbers.

I think Rubio's injury is a real pain here. It takes away his development time this summer while Kyrie is free to work on his game and improve. I think that is the difference between the two of them in this playoff series.

I am undecided about how much higher to rate Kyrie here though. How much to expect Kyrie to improve over the summer.

I think Rubio's injury is a real pain here. It takes away his development time this summer while Kyrie is free to work on his game and improve. I think that is the difference between the two of them in this playoff series.

This needs to be clarified for this game though. Portland just beat an incredibly talented Laker team. Fairly easily when you saw the voting.

In my opinion that just can't happen unless Rubio and Dwight are 100%. The fact that Portland is in the WCF makes me believe they are both healthy; otherwise the Lakers should be playing Dallas.

[KCattheStripe]

While I'm asking questions of the voters, here's another...

What is the gap between Rubio and Irving?

We can all agree that Irving has a higher ceiling, but where would they stand in May 2013, comparatively?

I thought Rubio and Kyrie were fairly equal last year.

I didn't think Kyrie deserved as much of the praise for play as he got. For his potential, sure. For the level he was playing at, I thought it was over-done. The scoring was extremely impressive but his non-contributions where largely negative (and often overlooked). Rubio was the polar opposite and (relatively speaking to Kyrie) flew under the radar because he didn't have sexy scoring numbers.

I think Rubio's injury is a real pain here. It takes away his development time this summer while Kyrie is free to work on his game and improve. I think that is the difference between the two of them in this playoff series.

I am undecided about how much higher to rate Kyrie here though. How much to expect Kyrie to improve over the summer.

Didn't Kyrie break his hand this summer?