Jeff Green - 2nd worst contract of the summer

[mmmmm]

NBA economics.

Green's contract is actually a very useful tool for Danny.

It's in a nice mid-range sweet spot that can be traded for a wide range of salary in return.  As long as the other team is under the luxury tax, they can take Green's 9M contract and give us back just 6M in return.   As long as we are under the luxury tax, we can give Green's 9M contract and take back as much as 13.5M in return.

Not that I am advocating that Green be traded at all.  In fact I am a big Jeff Green fan who has been anxious to see him finally get a legitimate chance to blossom.

But this is not at all a 'bad' contract from a GM's perspective.   It can potentially be a very useful tool because of the wide range of trade valuations it can facilitate, if needed, down the road.

This is the kind of thing that is apparently completely lost on the authors of the NBAGeeks article.

[Jon]

I still am not convinced Green can't be basically Danny Granger, with a little less range, but a little better mid-range and low post game.  They both are volume shooters, and kind of in the power 3 mould.  The big difference is that Granger has spent almost his whole career as the primary scorer on his team, while Green has been surounded by hall of fame level scorers his whole career.

And BTW, I mean this as much as a slight on Granger as I do as a compliment to Green.  They are both flawed players.

I think the biggest difference is that Granger can be very assertive offensively.

Green just hasn't been that sort of aggressive player, wasn't in college and he wasn't in the pros.

I agree.  Although Green WAS assertive in the couple games where they rested the regulars at the end of the season.  There is no evidence to back this up, because of the teams he has played on (remember, he was on a very good, and very structured G-Town team), but I would not be surprised if he could be just as aggressive, if he was asked to be on a regular basis.

The problem is, if you are asking him to be that aggressive, you probably don't have that great a team.

I tend to agree with this assessment.  He was in Durant's shadow in OKC and then walked into a situation in Boston midway through the season where there were incumbent Hall of Famers at both forward positions. 

The good news now is that Doc will likely push him hard to look for his shot to ease the burden on the older guys.

Also, don't underestimate what Green can do at the 4 spot.  People will hem and haw at this notion, but consider the following things:

1) We've had success with undersized lineups with Posey and Pietrus.  Green provides similar range, much more offensive punch, and is much closer to being a traditional sized power forward than either one of these guys. 

2) Speaking of traditional power forwards, it's not like we've been accustomed to Karl Malone being there for us.  Powe, BBD, and Bass are all shorter than Green.  Furthermore, it's not like any of those guys were stellar rebounders.  So I don't see what we're losing with Green there. 

3) And while Green may get knocked around by some power forwards, I'd say two sub things about this notion:

a) The average power forward in the NBA isn't that much bigger than Green.  When people think of power forwards, they think of Karl Malone.  However, many of today's PF are modeled more along the lines of Kevin McHale, tall and lanky.  Outside of Boozer, Milsap, Love, Randolph, and maybe a couple of others, I'm not exactly sure who is going to knock Green around. 

b) For the aforementioned players above who are stronger than him, while they will be able to bang him around, Green will also be able to run circles around them, which is in itself an advantage, especially with Rondo out there running the break.

I don't expect Green to start there (though I wouldn't entirely rule it out), but I do expect to see him get at least 10-15 mpg there, especially come playoff time. 

[Chris]

I should also qualify my statement about Green and Granger.  I do not actually think Green will be as good as Granger.  I am just saying the skillset and potential is there, which is what justifies a contract like this. 

He is not being paid based on his current production, he is being paid based on the assumption that he has not been fully utilited to this point in his career, and he is capable of being a more productive player.

[Lord of Mikawa]

Interestingly, the author of this article thinks Omer Asik should be paid $10+ million per season.

That guy must be on something. Asik isn't worth more than 5 million a year.

[Vermont Green]

Something occured to me as I was reading this.  If Green had hole in his heart or whatever the exact medical condition was, is it possible that it was affecting his endurance and overall play (kind of like playing against a little head wind)?

I think Green is going to be fine and will play to his contract over the long term but there certainly is risk.  If the ultimate contract includes an ability to waive the contract if there are future heart problems, suddenly this contract isn't even all that risky.  They may have to include an opt out for him after say two years to balance things.

If this does turn out to be a straight 4 year gauranteed contract, I am still fine with it and I don't think it will turn out to be the worst contract of the year or anything like that.

[ScoobyDoo]

Thanks Hooligan, appreciate it.

KG will quarterback the D
Pierce will score and defend - do his all around game
Rondo will lead the charge...

Collins, Wilcox, Sully, Green, Lee, Terry and Bradley are just more weapons on the field for Rondo to play with - and it's going to pay off.

We're going to have a lot of depth this year if we stay healthy (just like any other team) and I think this bodes very well for us.

[Chris]

Interestingly, the author of this article thinks Omer Asik should be paid $10+ million per season.

That guy must be on something. Asik isn't worth more than 5 million a year.

Eh, I think Asik is probably worth a little over $5 million per year.  Last year I think you can make a strong argument that he was the best backup center in the league.  So, at the $8 million per year I believe Houston is actually paying him (I think he got the same contract as Lin), is just a slight overpay in my mind, assuming he progresses a bit (which might not be a safe assumption).

I actually have a bigger issue with Lin's contract from a basketball standpoint.  He might be worth it from a marketing point of view, but that doesn't help with the cap hit.

[Moranis]

I totally agree with the general thought that Green is overpaid and that his contract didn't make sense.  I also agree that Boston had a very strange off season that doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.  I really don't get the direction Ainge choose to go by vastly overpaying role players like Green and Bass and by bringing in role players for mid-level or better money Terry and Lee.  Even KG's contract is very strange to me given the size and length.  I really think two and three years from now, Boston is going to be mediocre at best and stuck in cap hell with no way out.  Just a very strange and disappointing off season for me.

[Jon]

I totally agree with the general thought that Green is overpaid and that his contract didn't make sense.  I also agree that Boston had a very strange off season that doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.  I really don't get the direction Ainge choose to go by vastly overpaying role players like Green and Bass and by bringing in role players for mid-level or better money Terry and Lee.  Even KG's contract is very strange to me given the size and length.  I really think two and three years from now, Boston is going to be mediocre at best and stuck in cap hell with no way out.  Just a very strange and disappointing off season for me.

I think part of the issue was retaining value.  Remember, this isn't baseball.  We don't get compensation for the loss of free agents.   

Now it remains to be seen whether either lives up to their deals or not; however, they should definitely make the team better in the short term and they both can potentially be part of larger deals later. 

[LooseCannon]

Interestingly, the author of this article thinks Omer Asik should be paid $10+ million per season.

That guy must be on something. Asik isn't worth more than 5 million a year.

Eh, I think Asik is probably worth a little over $5 million per year.  Last year I think you can make a strong argument that he was the best backup center in the league.  So, at the $8 million per year I believe Houston is actually paying him (I think he got the same contract as Lin), is just a slight overpay in my mind, assuming he progresses a bit (which might not be a safe assumption).

I actually have a bigger issue with Lin's contract from a basketball standpoint.  He might be worth it from a marketing point of view, but that doesn't help with the cap hit.

I probably like Lin's contract more from a basketball standpoint.  He's not overpaid going by what other point guards get.  His NBA performance is in line with what some advanced metrics folks (often the same ones who tout win shares) said Lin was capable of, based on college stats.  I have some doubts about Asik being able to average over 25 mpg.  There is more variance in what Lin might do compared to Asik, so Asik is the safer contract but Lin is more likely to give you value that exceeds what he is being paid.

[Moranis]

I totally agree with the general thought that Green is overpaid and that his contract didn't make sense.  I also agree that Boston had a very strange off season that doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.  I really don't get the direction Ainge choose to go by vastly overpaying role players like Green and Bass and by bringing in role players for mid-level or better money Terry and Lee.  Even KG's contract is very strange to me given the size and length.  I really think two and three years from now, Boston is going to be mediocre at best and stuck in cap hell with no way out.  Just a very strange and disappointing off season for me.

I think part of the issue was retaining value.  Remember, this isn't baseball.  We don't get compensation for the loss of free agents.   

Now it remains to be seen whether either lives up to their deals or not; however, they should definitely make the team better in the short term and they both can potentially be part of larger deals later.

So retain the value on a one year deal.  No reason to give Bass or Green anywhere near that money, especially when there was a limited market for each of them.

[GreenEnvy]

I feel like my IQ dropped from reading this.

x2

TP for saying what I was thinking.

[scaryjerry]

Jason Terry will be great and is closer to his prime then ray Allen. Agree courtney lee is just ok compared to what others think, but good depth and ab insurance...I don't pay Jeff green so I don't care and will save my judgement for the season

[Neurotic Guy]

I totally agree with the general thought that Green is overpaid and that his contract didn't make sense.  I also agree that Boston had a very strange off season that doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.  I really don't get the direction Ainge choose to go by vastly overpaying role players like Green and Bass and by bringing in role players for mid-level or better money Terry and Lee.  Even KG's contract is very strange to me given the size and length.  I really think two and three years from now, Boston is going to be mediocre at best and stuck in cap hell with no way out.  Just a very strange and disappointing off season for me.

Considering that 1 year ago I was bracing for the end of the era and at least 5 years of mediocrity or lottery, I am actually amazed that a year later I am looking forward to a Celtics team that could be in contention for a championship.  I don't need to go over the talking points for optimism, they are chronicled ad nauseum here and I understand your disgreement with what appears to be the majority opinion.  You certainly could be correct about the quality of the team, but I disagree with regard to the quality of the contracts.  Some are a little better than others, but what I really like about the current contracts is that all are tradeable.  None are 'albatross' contracts, and all are least within the realm of equitable with the players skill/value.  Any player (like Green) could falter and be worth far less than the contract, but I just don't see it likely to happen.  So, I like the contracts becasue if the team doesn't jell, or KG/PP is injured, etc., we have tradeable assets and package possibilities that can bring back expiring contracts, prospects, draft picks or current talent.   I think Ainge has potentially kept us in the game for the next few years and provided a better chance to rebuild if the team struggles.   

[BballTim]

I totally agree with the general thought that Green is overpaid and that his contract didn't make sense.  I also agree that Boston had a very strange off season that doesn't make a whole lot of sense either.  I really don't get the direction Ainge choose to go by vastly overpaying role players like Green and Bass and by bringing in role players for mid-level or better money Terry and Lee.  Even KG's contract is very strange to me given the size and length.  I really think two and three years from now, Boston is going to be mediocre at best and stuck in cap hell with no way out.  Just a very strange and disappointing off season for me.

  All of the contracts are relatively short term. We won't be in cap hell with no way out in 2-3 years.