Sullinger will finish in the top 5 in ROY voting

[bfrombleacher]

I think the whole "doc doesnt play rookies" is over-stated...doc doesnt play rookies who arent ready to contribute on an NBA level...

Blessing and a curse. Even if we lost a few games by letting our rooks get some run, preserving our vets would have been priceless.

[Boris Badenov]

If Sullinger can play defense at a high level, he will get minutes.

We haven't seen him defend in the Cetltics' scheme, or against NBA talent.

So, at this point we know nothing about whether he will play at all, much less get substantial minutes.

[slamtheking]

If Sully sees any court time at all, I'd be surprised, never mind getting enough court time and doing well enough to even get any ROY votes.

[Steve from Milford]

Jared Sullinger, Brandon Bass, Jeff Green, Kevin Garnett, Chris Wilcox, Fab Melo, and Jason Collins are our bigs right now. These are my estimates to individual minutes (excluding Sully) :

KG - 30-31 minutes
Jeff Green - 5-10 minutes
Chris Wilcox - 5-10 minutes
Fab Melo - 5 minutes
Jason Collins - 0-5 minutes
Brandon Bass - 20-25 minutes

I would like to adjust these minutes at least during the regular season.

KG - 25 minutes (save him for playoffs)
Fab Melo - 0 (will be in D-league)
Jeff Green 20-30 minutes (depending on how strong he comes out)
Brandon Bass - 20-25 minutes (depending on if he starts)
Chris Wilcox - 15 minutes
Jason Collins - 0-5 (agree)

This adds up to 80-100 leaving at most 16 minutes for Sullinger and DNP's on some nights.

Of course all bets are off if various players over perform or under perform expectations. Also injuries and/or rest can obviously open up playing time.

However, if he can show consistency and steady improvement he could force Docs hand. Now wouldn't that be interesting?

[Moranis]

Not sure he'll get enough minutes to crack the top five for RoY.

If Sullinger was on a worse team where he could play 28-32 minutes a night, then yes, I think he would finish in the top five for RoY.

People are forgetting that KG will have his minutes severely cut back this year (as will Pierce for that matter.)  I am not penciling KG in for much more than 25 minutes a game.  Maybe 28, but that's it.

There are going to be a lot of open minutes at the 4/5, and we have 4 guys to fill those minutes:

Bass
Wilcox
Sullinger
Collins

I don't put Melo in here yet because he is obviously still a project.  Collins will barely ever play.  So that really leaves all of those minutes to Bass, Wilcox, and Sullinger.

Bass will get probably get 25 minutes at the 4.  Maybe Bass goes up to 30 but I doubt that.  Wilcox will not be playing more than 20.  So that leaves 23 minutes at the 4 and 28 minutes at the 5.  If you accept that KG will be well under 30 minutes a game this year, that leaves at least 20 minutes at the 4/5 for Sullinger.

Maybe we are overrating him, but his detractors on this blog are also underrating how much we actually NEED him to play this year.  We are not that deep down low.

Garnett will play at least 28 minutes a game and probably more like 30, though he will probably get a game off every so often.  Bass played almost 32 minutes a game last year.  I don't see them reducing those minutes unless someone else just out plays him and takes them from him.  

Green is going to play some at PF to ensure he gets in the 25 minute a game range.  Wilcox will get at least 10.

I'd imagine the minutes and rotation will be something like this

PF - Bass 32, Green 10, Sullinger 6
C - Garnett 30, Wilcox 10-12, Collins 3-5, Sullinger 3

Now if Sullinger is really good, he will take Collins minutes and cut into Bass or Green's, but that is only if he is really good.

When the injuries happen or people get nights off, then Sullinger will see a lot more time and could earn more going forward.

[Jon]

If Sullinger can play defense at a high level, he will get minutes.

We haven't seen him defend in the Cetltics' scheme, or against NBA talent.

So, at this point we know nothing about whether he will play at all, much less get substantial minutes.

But where?

It's easy to make these sweeping general statements.  But where is he going to play?

At the 4?  Maybe eventually.  I like him better than Bass in some ways.  However, the Celtics didn't just give Bass and Green a combined 15 million dollars per year to sit on the bench.  And there aren't enough minutes at the 3 for Green to get all his minutes there.  

At the 5?  People seem to think he can play there, and maybe he can a bit.  But I think this is notion is somewhat based on a distortion of the past, where people remember BBD playing the "5".  However, BBD played next to KG when he did this.  So the idea that Sullinger can backup KG is fairly far-fetched, as it would require the C's to go very small with essentially two undersized power forwards manning the 4/5 spots.  

If Sullinger is to have a chance to contribute in his rookie year, I think he's going to have to hit the ground running early.  I think that one of the ways that the C's will make up for Avery Bradley's absence will be to slide PP to the 2 for 5-10 minutes a game, which should free up enough minutes for Green to get nearly all his minutes at the 3 spot.  If that's the case, there should be minutes for Sullinger.  

If he shows he can do what Bass can do or more, I think the C's may try to move Bass around the deadline.  But if not, I think Sullinger gets his butt parked on the bench for most of the games once the team is fully healthy.  

[crimson_stallion]

Not sure he'll get enough minutes to crack the top five for RoY.

If Sullinger was on a worse team where he could play 28-32 minutes a night, then yes, I think he would finish in the top five for RoY.

I think he will push his way to 20 to thirty minutes and his efficiency at putting up numbers will carry him to that top 5 finish. He averaged 17 a game on only 11 shots a game in college. Pretty solid.

Not likely with Bass, Green and Wilcox all likely to spend time at the 4.

I see him getting 20 mins a game at the absolute most, and probably not even that.

Boston just paid green 10m a year.  I expect they will give him more then the 20 mins he'd get backing up Pierce...I expect him to play 25 - 28 mins, with the other 5-8 being at PF.  I Think Sullinger will only get max 20 mins backing up Bass, with Wilcox/CollMelo sharing the job of backing KG.

[Chris]

I disagree that KG will play that many minutes.  He may (or probabl will) in the playoffs, but in the regular season, I expect his minutes to cut down substantially.  That is part of the reason they wanted to get so much depth, so they could cut KG and Pierce's minutes.  Last season, KG played more than they would have liked, mainly because they didn't have any other options.  If KG is averaging much more than 25 minutes per game in the regular season, it means one of three things.

1. There are significant injuries to other front court players
2. The other front court players have been a major disappointment
3. The team is in a real battle for playoff positioning, and need to basically play a playoff rotation in the regular season

None of those things are a good sign.

[Moranis]

I disagree that KG will play that many minutes.  He may (or probabl will) in the playoffs, but in the regular season, I expect his minutes to cut down substantially.  That is part of the reason they wanted to get so much depth, so they could cut KG and Pierce's minutes.  Last season, KG played more than they would have liked, mainly because they didn't have any other options.  If KG is averaging much more than 25 minutes per game in the regular season, it means one of three things.

1. There are significant injuries to other front court players
2. The other front court players have been a major disappointment
3. The team is in a real battle for playoff positioning, and need to basically play a playoff rotation in the regular season

None of those things are a good sign.

I don't see how you can stop KG from playing 28-30 minutes a game.  He isn't going to come out of the game.  I do think having be inactive for games, especially back to backs, will happen, I just don't see him being regulated to a half of the time player in the games he is actually dressed for.

[Chris]

I disagree that KG will play that many minutes.  He may (or probabl will) in the playoffs, but in the regular season, I expect his minutes to cut down substantially.  That is part of the reason they wanted to get so much depth, so they could cut KG and Pierce's minutes.  Last season, KG played more than they would have liked, mainly because they didn't have any other options.  If KG is averaging much more than 25 minutes per game in the regular season, it means one of three things.

1. There are significant injuries to other front court players
2. The other front court players have been a major disappointment
3. The team is in a real battle for playoff positioning, and need to basically play a playoff rotation in the regular season

None of those things are a good sign.

I don't see how you can stop KG from playing 28-30 minutes a game.  He isn't going to come out of the game.  I do think having be inactive for games, especially back to backs, will happen, I just don't see him being regulated to a half of the time player in the games he is actually dressed for.

They tried to do this last year, but when he was on the bench, the team was horrible.  If they can be effective when he is on the bench this year, I think he will have no problem with the extra rest, as long as he is in there at critical times.

[Who]

I am expecting 28-30mpg for Garnett.

[st.jimmy222]

i really hope to see Green at the 4 as little as possible. like 5-8 minutes little. i am also hoping Kevin gets a good 10-15 mins at the 4 during the regular season. give him a break from banging down low with the big guys. this is where i think Sully can be a big help. let Sully throw that wait around and take some abuse in the paint, and let KG step out at play his 18 footer game. abuse the young; they heal faster    

[Jon]

I disagree that KG will play that many minutes.  He may (or probabl will) in the playoffs, but in the regular season, I expect his minutes to cut down substantially.  That is part of the reason they wanted to get so much depth, so they could cut KG and Pierce's minutes.  Last season, KG played more than they would have liked, mainly because they didn't have any other options.  If KG is averaging much more than 25 minutes per game in the regular season, it means one of three things.

1. There are significant injuries to other front court players
2. The other front court players have been a major disappointment
3. The team is in a real battle for playoff positioning, and need to basically play a playoff rotation in the regular season

None of those things are a good sign.

I don't see how you can stop KG from playing 28-30 minutes a game.  He isn't going to come out of the game.  I do think having be inactive for games, especially back to backs, will happen, I just don't see him being regulated to a half of the time player in the games he is actually dressed for.

They tried to do this last year, but when he was on the bench, the team was horrible.  If they can be effective when he is on the bench this year, I think he will have no problem with the extra rest, as long as he is in there at critical times.

Well, the fewest minutes he ever played was actually in 2009-2010 when he put up 29.9 mpg after his injury.  

The past two years he's been at 31.3 and 31.1.  

I wouldn't be surprised to see Doc try to cut a few more minutes off it down to say, 28 mpg, but I have a hard time thinking that he makes it all the way down to 25 mpg.  

[Fafnir]

Yeah his total minutes played might go down more as he gets games off entirely. But when he suits up he'll be getting 28-30 MPG.