Can Fab Melo be a Deandre Jordan, Hibbert, Perk etc?

[snively]

I think the DeSagana Diop comparison is a pretty good one.  Both guys only started playing organized ball in high school.  Similar size, similar build, similar conditioning issues.  Diop a little longer, but Melo a bit more mobile.

People forget that Diop turned into a pretty solid big man before regressing in Charlotte. 

[snively]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2365

Chart via BasketballProspectus.  Most analysts agree that rebounding is the stat that translates more than any other from college to the pros.  Fab Melo is the worst defensive rebounder on the list and there is nobody even close to him.  That stat tends not to develop well, even though you can cite maybe two examples in the last decade.

I'm very much with you on this worry but at the same time he played in a zone, a system that doesn't usually allow guys to rack up big rebounding numbers.

Fair enough.  Reason to be hopeful, I guess.  How have past Syracuse big men done?  NBA history tends to repeat itself.

Etan Thomas is the only comparable guy I can think of that got drafted from Syracuse.  He was also DPOY in the Big East too.  He averaged 7 rpg in college and only a bit above 5 in the NBA.  He was 6' 9" however.

Not really enough of a sample size.

How about Hakim Warrick? Were they in a zone when he was there?  I guess I'm just uncomfortable with arguably the worst rebounding team in the NBA drafting arguably the worst defensive rebounding center.  It's not like we're the Bulls or anything.  We need all the help on the boards we can get.

If it's any consolation, he was one of the better offensive rebounders in the draft (and offensive rebounding was much more of a weakness than defensive rebounding) - better than Sullinger, T-Rob, Moultrie and Ezeli.

[bballdog384]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2365

Chart via BasketballProspectus.  Most analysts agree that rebounding is the stat that translates more than any other from college to the pros.  Fab Melo is the worst defensive rebounder on the list and there is nobody even close to him.  That stat tends not to develop well, even though you can cite maybe two examples in the last decade.

I'm very much with you on this worry but at the same time he played in a zone, a system that doesn't usually allow guys to rack up big rebounding numbers.

Fair enough.  Reason to be hopeful, I guess.  How have past Syracuse big men done?  NBA history tends to repeat itself.

Etan Thomas is the only comparable guy I can think of that got drafted from Syracuse.  He was also DPOY in the Big East too.  He averaged 7 rpg in college and only a bit above 5 in the NBA.  He was 6' 9" however.

Not really enough of a sample size.

How about Hakim Warrick? Were they in a zone when he was there?  I guess I'm just uncomfortable with arguably the worst rebounding team in the NBA drafting arguably the worst defensive rebounding center.  It's not like we're the Bulls or anything.  We need all the help on the boards we can get.

I considered him but he's hardly even a post player so it seems silly.  Plays PF but plays like a wing most of the time.

Small sample size but having played zone myself and understanding how rebounding works out of it, a center roaming the paint can be out of the rebounding area and around the foul line a lot for example.  His job is to box out the correct man before snatching the ball out.  Everyone has to box out and then look to get posession more so than in man because everything is up in the air as far as matchups.

One thing he did do well is offensive rebound.  We could use that obviously a lot, we are terrible there, though it is the scheme so not sure how that will impact us.

Also, Cuse had plenty of other athletic wings that were great rebounders in the zone.

Joseph had   4.7rpg  5.9r/40
Fab               5.8     9.1
CJ Fair            5.5     8.2
Southerland    3.1     7.8   
Christmas      2.9     10.1
Keita           2.5        8.1
Triche       2.5
Jardine      2.4     guards (top of 2-3)
Waiters      2.3

The team was very athletic and the rebounding numbers were distributed across the board. Also, Melo only played 25mpg. He did a great job on D, which put him out of position for rebounds in the zone, and the athletic wings grabbed most of the boards.

I said this in another post:

Regarding the low rebounding numbers, I think it is very similar to Perk. If you are defending the post, you actually are not in a great position to grab rebounds. About 70% of misses go to the opposite side of the hoop, and while playing post D he was not in a position to grab any of these. I also do believe that playing in a 2-3 zone puts the on ball defender out of position for rebounds, and as a center, Fab was almost always defending on the ball. His low number of 5.8 rpg is also misleading because he only played 25 mpg (I realize you mentioned the /40 #s). Also, the two wing defenders (usually Joseph 4.9rpg, Rak Christmas 10.1 r/40min, and CJ Fair 5.5rpg) were all very athletic and grabbed most of the boards.

[Tr1boy]

Isn't getting offensive rebounds harder than defensive?? If this is the case, than the zone is prob one of the single biggest reasons why he only was able to snatch 6 on avg.

But seeing clips, he should box out guys better , every single time. Again take a look at DX analysis. He looks like a lotto pick. The only thing that i hope is not true is low iq. Like everyone mentioned, english is not his first language, thus struggled in school and worse got suspended. Imo you can't really determine basketball iq with academics iq references.

Watch the clip again, and just imagine with natural progression a better body, and learning under the celts system, what his potential could become. How important he would be on the court vs sitting down

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFFZOYgcbzQ

[LooseCannon]

Does having played in a zone in college mean that Melo might be more likely to pick up the help defense required by the Celtics system? 

[Chris]

Does having played in a zone in college mean that Melo might be more likely to pick up the help defense required by the Celtics system? 

I would say it makes him less likely.  The zone was very simple, and the C's system is actually closer to man to man than it is to a standard zone. 

[bballdog384]

Does having played in a zone in college mean that Melo might be more likely to pick up the help defense required by the Celtics system? 

It might. Jim Boeheim coaches the best zone in the country with a lot of complicated rotations. Fab was the foundation of the zone and was rarely out of position.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

What I really love about Fab right now that makes me say that he could be a better Perk or DeAndre is his natural strength.

A lot of scouts are saying this. He's naturally strong, meaning he can get stronger with proper work, which based on the improvement he showed last year and losing weight. This kid can be more imposing on the interior.

[Snakehead]

Does having played in a zone in college mean that Melo might be more likely to pick up the help defense required by the Celtics system? 

It might. Jim Boeheim coaches the best zone in the country with a lot of complicated rotations. Fab was the foundation of the zone and was rarely out of position.

Yeah it's tough to tell if it really will help but given how it makes you cover ground to pick up certain matchups like our rotations do, it has to help some, if just in training you to quickly and under control be able to close distance and challenge shots or pick up an opponent.

He'll still have learning to do.  They all do when they come here, even the vets.

[pearljammer10]

This was my immediate thought thinking about late first round early second round choices. Hibbert and Jordan instantly came to mind. We'll have to wait three or four years. I hope we give him the chance and let him stick around til then.

[LooseCannon]

Does having played in a zone in college mean that Melo might be more likely to pick up the help defense required by the Celtics system? 

It might. Jim Boeheim coaches the best zone in the country with a lot of complicated rotations. Fab was the foundation of the zone and was rarely out of position.

I know nothing about college ball.  I've come to the realization that being a solid man-to-man defender isn't enough for bigs in the Celtics system and being able to rotate as needed is more important than something like one-on-one post defense.

I'm wondering if Fab Melo will be a guy who is smart enough to understand but not the kind of guy who ever seem instinctive in his movements.

[byennie]

This was my immediate thought thinking about late first round early second round choices. Hibbert and Jordan instantly came to mind. We'll have to wait three or four years. I hope we give him the chance and let him stick around til then.

But wait 3 or 4 years for what? For him to reach his prime / peak? I think what people are missing is that the C's could really use a 7 foot center that makes a positive contribution for 15 MPG by the end of the season.  Both Hibbert and Jordan were roughly 10/5/1.5 guys by the end of their rookie seasons in about 20MPG, with fouling problems. That would be a very useful player on a team that signed Ryan Hollins this season...