Can Fab Melo be a Deandre Jordan, Hibbert, Perk etc?

[Tr1boy]

Melo is project, do we all not agree? Unlike Drummond, who nobody knows if he will progress after a lackluster freshman year, Melo was labelled as one of the most improved players in college basketball this year.

That speaks volume. Improvement #'s are significant.

Starting with his conditioning, he could stay on the court 15 more minutes than he could year 1. He shot 30 percent better at the FT line from year 1 to year 2 (from 30's to 60's). He avg 4 more boards better from 1.9 to 5.8. Even though he scored avg of 7.8 pts for the year, he actually was scoring closer to 12 points a game in the 2nd half of the year. Was a monster at blocking and did 10 vs seaton Hall, so not sure if this quality can even improve any further.

If he can develop at peak into a 12 points, 9 rebounds, 2 to 3 blocks a game, plus do other things like take charges, alter shots and disrupt opposing offensive sets, then this will end up being a steal.

Even if he doesn't reach peak, this is a fitting pick. Celts fans want to be special and want like a top 10 pick with 22nd, but you have to be realistic. At worse he will be a serviceable back up centre. And people angry by this worse case bc you can get these guys at the 2nd round, that is far from the truth.

[bdm860]

DeAndre was a much better rebounder.  Rebounding is the easiest skill for a 7 footer and one that usually translates from college to the pro level.  Fab should be a much better rebounder.  Yet he is not.

Like 7'2" Roy Hibbert averaging 5.9rpg for his career at Georgetown?  At the max he only got up to 6.9 in his best season, a whole 1 more rebound per game than 7'0" Melo averaged in his best year?

Hey I admit, I thought Hibbert would be a bust because of that, how could this 7'2" dude not average more rebounds than that, especially with so few quality big guys in college, but he's done very well in the NBA.  So I'll hold out faith that Melo can do something similar.

Hibbert's rebound percentages were a good amount higher and half of Fab's rebounds were offensive boards.  Makes me think he either had the benefit of playing with poorer shooters than Hibbert and may have done the Moses Malone trick of padding offensive rebound numbers with multiple putback attempts on one possession.

It is the 3 defensive rebounds per game and low rebound percentage that concern me.  Hibbert was better than him on both.  And Hibbert was more polished offensively.  I see where that comparison comes from, but I don't see it applying.

Where are you getting your rebound percentages from?

Using draftexpress's comprehensive stats, Melo was grabbing 21.5% of his teams offensive rebounds and 14.2% of his teams defensive rebounds.

Hibbert's senior year he was grabbing 22.4% of offensive rebounds, and 16.5% of defensive rebounds.

Those aren't a good amount higher, especially when Hibbert was 2 inches taller and a much more polished player.

Between two and three percent is actually pretty high for a difference in defensive rebounding.  And Hibbert being taller is an asset. And Hibbert had a better offensive game.

Actually it's not.

I think you made up a stat without looking it up, got called out on it, but you're still trying to defend it.

Then how about Deandre Jordan, he's rebounding fine in the NBA no? But only grabbed 6rpg in college, and that was 16% of his teams offensive boards, and 15.1% of his teams defensive boards.  But ( guess that 0.9% difference between him and Melo is huge too?

In fact, the NBA's top 20 defensive rebounders by % are separated by over 10% points.  You know what separates 2nd (Camby) and 3rd (Duncan)? 4.5% points.  Know what separates 3 from 7 (Garnett)? 2.4% points, which is more than what separated Hibbert from Melo, which you claimed was such a huge margin.  And we all know Camby is leaps and bounds better than Duncan when it comes to rebounding, and on a whole other planet compared to Garnett. 

You can't necessarily judge a developing college kid by his college rebounding numbers.  Is Jordan and Hibbert not proof enough?

[Vermont Green]

Other than being tall, I think a very important skillfor a big man  that is not usually discussed (other than Tommy H.) and for which there is not a stat is "hands".  You often hear someone say "Player X can run so he would be good with Rondo".  But really, foot speed doesn't do you any good if you can't catch the ball while moving or otherwise handle the difficult passes that come your way.  I would much rather have a little bit slower big man with good hands than a high flyer with no hands.

So with that said, can anyone give me an assessment of Melo hands?

[celtsfan84]

DeAndre was a much better rebounder.  Rebounding is the easiest skill for a 7 footer and one that usually translates from college to the pro level.  Fab should be a much better rebounder.  Yet he is not.

Like 7'2" Roy Hibbert averaging 5.9rpg for his career at Georgetown?  At the max he only got up to 6.9 in his best season, a whole 1 more rebound per game than 7'0" Melo averaged in his best year?

Hey I admit, I thought Hibbert would be a bust because of that, how could this 7'2" dude not average more rebounds than that, especially with so few quality big guys in college, but he's done very well in the NBA.  So I'll hold out faith that Melo can do something similar.

Hibbert's rebound percentages were a good amount higher and half of Fab's rebounds were offensive boards.  Makes me think he either had the benefit of playing with poorer shooters than Hibbert and may have done the Moses Malone trick of padding offensive rebound numbers with multiple putback attempts on one possession.

It is the 3 defensive rebounds per game and low rebound percentage that concern me.  Hibbert was better than him on both.  And Hibbert was more polished offensively.  I see where that comparison comes from, but I don't see it applying.

Where are you getting your rebound percentages from?

Using draftexpress's comprehensive stats, Melo was grabbing 21.5% of his teams offensive rebounds and 14.2% of his teams defensive rebounds.

Hibbert's senior year he was grabbing 22.4% of offensive rebounds, and 16.5% of defensive rebounds.

Those aren't a good amount higher, especially when Hibbert was 2 inches taller and a much more polished player.

Between two and three percent is actually pretty high for a difference in defensive rebounding.  And Hibbert being taller is an asset. And Hibbert had a better offensive game.

Actually it's not.

I think you made up a stat without looking it up, got called out on it, but you're still trying to defend it.

Then how about Deandre Jordan, he's rebounding fine in the NBA no? But only grabbed 6rpg in college, and that was 16% of his teams offensive boards, and 15.1% of his teams defensive boards.  But ( guess that 0.9% difference between him and Melo is huge too?

In fact, the NBA's top 20 defensive rebounders by % are separated by over 10% points.  You know what separates 2nd (Camby) and 3rd (Duncan)? 4.5% points.  Know what separates 3 from 7 (Garnett)? 2.4% points, which is more than what separated Hibbert from Melo, which you claimed was such a huge margin.  And we all know Camby is leaps and bounds better than Duncan when it comes to rebounding, and on a whole other planet compared to Garnett.  

You can't necessarily judge a developing college kid by his college rebounding numbers.  Is Jordan and Hibbert not proof enough?

Nope.  Those aren't enough. Not even close.  I could give you dozens of names that didn't improve.  Jordan and Hibbert is not proof enough.

And Hibbert can score.  If you told me we were drafting Hibbert except without the offensive game and a slightly worse rebounder, I would not be impressed.

Jordan is the exception.  Not the rule.  And if waiting years for a guy to develop and then having to overpay him by a huge amount is your cup of tea, then congrats.  

So you're telling me the best case scenario is we take years to develop this guy, and when he is finally functional, we either have to let him leave in free agency or overpay him to the tune of $11 million per year?  I say no thanks to all of your best case scenarios here.

[celtsfan84]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2365

Chart via BasketballProspectus.  Most analysts agree that rebounding is the stat that translates more than any other from college to the pros.  Fab Melo is the worst defensive rebounder on the list and there is nobody even close to him.  That stat tends not to develop well, even though you can cite maybe two examples in the last decade.

[Snakehead]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2365

Chart via BasketballProspectus.  Most analysts agree that rebounding is the stat that translates more than any other from college to the pros.  Fab Melo is the worst defensive rebounder on the list and there is nobody even close to him.  That stat tends not to develop well, even though you can cite maybe two examples in the last decade.

I'm very much with you on this worry but at the same time he played in a zone, a system that doesn't usually allow guys to rack up big rebounding numbers.

Wait and see on his rebounding.  Good news is we know Sullinger can board at least.

[bballdog384]

Other than being tall, I think a very important skillfor a big man  that is not usually discussed (other than Tommy H.) and for which there is not a stat is "hands".  You often hear someone say "Player X can run so he would be good with Rondo".  But really, foot speed doesn't do you any good if you can't catch the ball while moving or otherwise handle the difficult passes that come your way.  I would much rather have a little bit slower big man with good hands than a high flyer with no hands.

So with that said, can anyone give me an assessment of Melo hands?

His hands are actually very good for a big. Most of his offense came on lobs or offensive put backs. He always knew that lobs were coming to him (Scoop Jardine LOVED throwing them) and he was always ready - I don't think he fumbled any of them all season, and he was always aware and athletic enough to finish.

[celtsfan84]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2365

Chart via BasketballProspectus.  Most analysts agree that rebounding is the stat that translates more than any other from college to the pros.  Fab Melo is the worst defensive rebounder on the list and there is nobody even close to him.  That stat tends not to develop well, even though you can cite maybe two examples in the last decade.

I'm very much with you on this worry but at the same time he played in a zone, a system that doesn't usually allow guys to rack up big rebounding numbers.

Fair enough.  Reason to be hopeful, I guess.  How have past Syracuse big men done?  NBA history tends to repeat itself.

[JHTruth]

Much, much more mobiled and agile than Perk. I love Perk but the guy was extremely unathletic. Could not recover to save his life. Melo is a much better athlete than Perk.

DeAndre Jordan is a great comparison.

Brian

[Mr October]

I wouldn't be surprised if Melo is the best center in this draft in the end. He has enough tools to be as efficient as Perkins or Jordan. We won't know what we have with him for another 3 years. In the meantime, he's got good hands and that will go a long way with Rondo and KG in the lineup. He can also block some shots.

A healthy Steamer, Melo as a 3rd stringer, and then a signed big like Camby would have me very satisfied about the center position for next year.

[Mr October]

Is it time to rehire Clifford Ray?

[celtsfan84]

DeAndre was a much better rebounder.  Rebounding is the easiest skill for a 7 footer and one that usually translates from college to the pro level.  Fab should be a much better rebounder.  Yet he is not.

Like 7'2" Roy Hibbert averaging 5.9rpg for his career at Georgetown?  At the max he only got up to 6.9 in his best season, a whole 1 more rebound per game than 7'0" Melo averaged in his best year?

Hey I admit, I thought Hibbert would be a bust because of that, how could this 7'2" dude not average more rebounds than that, especially with so few quality big guys in college, but he's done very well in the NBA.  So I'll hold out faith that Melo can do something similar.

Hibbert's rebound percentages were a good amount higher and half of Fab's rebounds were offensive boards.  Makes me think he either had the benefit of playing with poorer shooters than Hibbert and may have done the Moses Malone trick of padding offensive rebound numbers with multiple putback attempts on one possession.

It is the 3 defensive rebounds per game and low rebound percentage that concern me.  Hibbert was better than him on both.  And Hibbert was more polished offensively.  I see where that comparison comes from, but I don't see it applying.

Where are you getting your rebound percentages from?

Using draftexpress's comprehensive stats, Melo was grabbing 21.5% of his teams offensive rebounds and 14.2% of his teams defensive rebounds.

Hibbert's senior year he was grabbing 22.4% of offensive rebounds, and 16.5% of defensive rebounds.

Those aren't a good amount higher, especially when Hibbert was 2 inches taller and a much more polished player.

Between two and three percent is actually pretty high for a difference in defensive rebounding.  And Hibbert being taller is an asset. And Hibbert had a better offensive game.

Actually it's not.

I think you made up a stat without looking it up, got called out on it, but you're still trying to defend it.

Then how about Deandre Jordan, he's rebounding fine in the NBA no? But only grabbed 6rpg in college, and that was 16% of his teams offensive boards, and 15.1% of his teams defensive boards.  But ( guess that 0.9% difference between him and Melo is huge too?

In fact, the NBA's top 20 defensive rebounders by % are separated by over 10% points.  You know what separates 2nd (Camby) and 3rd (Duncan)? 4.5% points.  Know what separates 3 from 7 (Garnett)? 2.4% points, which is more than what separated Hibbert from Melo, which you claimed was such a huge margin.  And we all know Camby is leaps and bounds better than Duncan when it comes to rebounding, and on a whole other planet compared to Garnett. 

You can't necessarily judge a developing college kid by his college rebounding numbers.  Is Jordan and Hibbert not proof enough?

Yeah, and the difference between KG and Evan Turner is 3%.  You must think Evan Turner is equivalent to KG. 

Maybe we should trade for Turner and play him at Center.  He's much younger than KG too.

[Snakehead]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2365

Chart via BasketballProspectus.  Most analysts agree that rebounding is the stat that translates more than any other from college to the pros.  Fab Melo is the worst defensive rebounder on the list and there is nobody even close to him.  That stat tends not to develop well, even though you can cite maybe two examples in the last decade.

I'm very much with you on this worry but at the same time he played in a zone, a system that doesn't usually allow guys to rack up big rebounding numbers.

Fair enough.  Reason to be hopeful, I guess.  How have past Syracuse big men done?  NBA history tends to repeat itself.

Etan Thomas is the only comparable guy I can think of that got drafted from Syracuse.  He was also DPOY in the Big East too.  He averaged 7 rpg in college and only a bit above 5 in the NBA.  He was 6' 9" however.

Not really enough of a sample size.

[celtsfan84]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2365

Chart via BasketballProspectus.  Most analysts agree that rebounding is the stat that translates more than any other from college to the pros.  Fab Melo is the worst defensive rebounder on the list and there is nobody even close to him.  That stat tends not to develop well, even though you can cite maybe two examples in the last decade.

I'm very much with you on this worry but at the same time he played in a zone, a system that doesn't usually allow guys to rack up big rebounding numbers.

Fair enough.  Reason to be hopeful, I guess.  How have past Syracuse big men done?  NBA history tends to repeat itself.

Etan Thomas is the only comparable guy I can think of that got drafted from Syracuse.  He was also DPOY in the Big East too.  He averaged 7 rpg in college and only a bit above 5 in the NBA.  He was 6' 9" however.

Not really enough of a sample size.

How about Hakim Warrick? Were they in a zone when he was there?  I guess I'm just uncomfortable with arguably the worst rebounding team in the NBA drafting arguably the worst defensive rebounding center.  It's not like we're the Bulls or anything.  We need all the help on the boards we can get.

[Snakehead]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2365

Chart via BasketballProspectus.  Most analysts agree that rebounding is the stat that translates more than any other from college to the pros.  Fab Melo is the worst defensive rebounder on the list and there is nobody even close to him.  That stat tends not to develop well, even though you can cite maybe two examples in the last decade.

I'm very much with you on this worry but at the same time he played in a zone, a system that doesn't usually allow guys to rack up big rebounding numbers.

Fair enough.  Reason to be hopeful, I guess.  How have past Syracuse big men done?  NBA history tends to repeat itself.

Etan Thomas is the only comparable guy I can think of that got drafted from Syracuse.  He was also DPOY in the Big East too.  He averaged 7 rpg in college and only a bit above 5 in the NBA.  He was 6' 9" however.

Not really enough of a sample size.

How about Hakim Warrick? Were they in a zone when he was there?  I guess I'm just uncomfortable with arguably the worst rebounding team in the NBA drafting arguably the worst defensive rebounding center.  It's not like we're the Bulls or anything.  We need all the help on the boards we can get.

I considered him but he's hardly even a post player so it seems silly.  Plays PF but plays like a wing most of the time.

Small sample size but having played zone myself and understanding how rebounding works out of it, a center roaming the paint can be out of the rebounding area and around the foul line a lot for example.  His job is to box out the correct man before snatching the ball out.  Everyone has to box out and then look to get posession more so than in man because everything is up in the air as far as matchups.

One thing he did do well is offensive rebound.  We could use that obviously a lot, we are terrible there, though it is the scheme so not sure how that will impact us.