No to Jared. (Danny's Infatuation w/ Undersized Bigs)

[KevinConnor]

Sorry - i didn't bother to read the entire forum here, so i'm certainly missing something. However, for those that dismiss sullinger as being a legitimate athlete - what do you qualify as an athlete? Is he like big baby because he's 'undersized' chubby, etc...? I don't really see the comparisons. Big Baby is an energy player that can't dunk and has t'rex arms.

Sullinger has a giant wingspan, can throw down hard for a dude his size, and can carve out space down low with the best of them in this draft. He knows how to use his size to his advantage, thats for sure.

Have you ever seen this guy up close in person? His legs are tree trunks and his behind is something to behold. I was front row at this years march madness game's at the garden. Sullinger can FLAT OUT BALL. If it wasn't for foul trouble, he would have totally dominated the ball. His IQ is way up there, he fights HARD down low for positioning and WANTS the ball. When he gets the ball, he knows how to score. He has REAL skill and his foot work was high NBA level against these college players. Again, his ability to use his body, take the hit, and work around the rim will make him a solid nba player. He eats up rebounds, again, due to his ability to use his size, anticipation for the ball, and yes - quickness.

Guys - this guy is an absolute baller. He wasn't a lottery pick just a year ago for no reason. Watch a few highlight reels of him and you'll truly get a feel for what he can bring to the game. Call him an unathletic, undersized big man if you want... I don't believe it. But please, do not underestimate the heart this guy has, his willingness to win, and his pure natural ability to play basketball.

By the way, I'm a Michigan fan... this is totally unbiased.

Also - something hit a nerve here for me, of course... I've been following these boards like a leach for years. C's season ticket holder, die hard bball fan. thanks for keeping me entertained. Go Celtics.

FWIW he was among the worst players in the 3/4 court sprint and agility drill at the combine and he bench pressed 9 reps to PG Scott Machado's 17, contributing to DraftExpress ranking him 50th of 52 players in their 'athletic testing composite ranking':

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/NBA-Combine-Athletic-Testing-Analysis-3965/

So?

It's a good thing Bird wasn't evaluated in this time and age I guess!

Good point!

But what happened to Bird when his BACK started to fail him?

There is all kinds of back problems. some are serious and some are not. From what i've read this isn't very serious and shouldn't hamper him in the future. Would you rather have a total scrub in Melo or a very skilled player with some not to serious health concerns in Sullinger? I very much hope he slides to us in the draft.

[snively]

Sullinger would be a very nice pairing alongside KG - like Baby was only with (hopefully) better rebounding, a smoother J, and a little more oomph as a finisher. 

[CantBeRight]

If he is available at 21, take him no second doubts.

[Fafnir]

If he is available at 21, take him no second doubts.

Yeah, I think the real issue is that if he's available in the mid-teens will we trade up to get him?

He might slide out of the lottery, I really doubt he gets to the 20s.

[Yogi]

One thing people don't seem to realize... Big Baby put up 19 and 9 against George 6'9, Granger 6'9, David West 6'9 and Roy Hibbert 7'2 in the playoffs this year and he's getting paid 6.5 million per year.

His TS% was under .500 and his rebound rate while a better than typical 14 for Baby wasn't good for a C. Meanwhile the Pacers destroyed the Magic on the glass.

Baby played well and hard given his limitations, but 19 9 are empty numbers when your team is getting crushed in the paint in large part because you're playing C 38 minutes a game.

I agree that Glen Davis wouldn't be a bad result for a first round pick it certainly woulnd't be a good one either. You want starters not backups from the first round and frankly if the C's want to avoid the lottery soon they need to do even better than that. We need to get some serious talent with our picks.

What you say would be pretty sound argument until you look at what the Pacers did to the much taller and M.I.P Ryan Anderson.  9.6 points and 4.6 rebounds in maybe 4 minutes per game less than Glen Davis.

So because the Magic's PF played poorly lets give Davis bonus points?

Ryan Anderson revealed himself to be a limited stretch 4 without Howard around to play off of, that doesn't make Davis's performance "better".

  Well there are two possibilities here.  One, the Pacers are incredibly big and athletic team and that's why Ryan Anderson struggled and Glen Davis played tremendously well to get 19 and 9 against them.  
   Two, Ryan Anderson was exposed playing without Dwight Howard and Baby's performance was thus not as impressive.  
   The second scenario might explain Ryan Anderson's terrible shooting because Dwight wasn't being double teamed.  Logic would dictate that his rebounding numbers would increase as there are a lot more rebounds available without Dwight on the floor.  At the very least, they should stay the same.  However he was grabbing a full 3 rebounds less in the playoffs than he did in the regular season.

When your team is getting crushed on the glass and you still only grab rebounds at 14 rate at C that isn't playing well. Neither is sub .500 TS% scoring, Ryan Anderson actually scored more efficiently than Davis shockingly.

Davis showed himself to be the same player he's been for 3 years now. He just got 38 MPG against the Pacers in the playoffs. Good offensive rebounder when playing inside, inadequete defensive rebounder, inefficient scorer, sold man to man defender if short, and an inadquete team defender due to poor length.

He's a backup level big man, which isn't a bad result for a late first round pick. But its not what you should be aiming for.

Ok.  Let's compare the back up big's numbers with some starters last post season.  Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan and Carlos Boozer in the post seasnon, Tyson Chandler, Spencer Hawes 16%, Chris Bosh 15%, David West, Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis 14%, Serge Ibaka and Boris Diaw 12%, Amare Stoudemire and Blake Griffin 11.5%, Elton Brand 10%

As far as his shooting he shot very slightly worse than Elton Brand and David West and shot better than Zach Randolph.  People who are similar in build.

Anymore theories?

[Scribbles]

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=jared-sullinger&glen-davis=2005-2006&p1=glen-davis

That's comparing Glen's sophomore year with Sullingers. There really isn't a big difference in stats. They both made it to a final 4 as sophomores too. To me that is Jared's peak...Glen Davis...except Davis has weight issues where Sullinger's issue is a bad back.  

I've already seen the bigs come out of Ohio State in past years and none of them are that great in the league.

[Snakehead]

Here's the deal:

When you're drafting outside the lottery (as Danny generally has done since he's come here), you aren't going to get the prototypical player who has all the skills you'd like for his position.  You're either going to get an athlete with size that you hope you can turn into a player or a player who has some sort of flaw (size, as with BBD, Powe, Gomes) or attitude(Rondo, TA), or in some cases a mixture of both or more things. 

The history of turning athletes with size into players is not very good in the NBA, particularly in Boston.  Look at the likes of Jerome Moiso, Kedrick Brown, Marcus Banks, and J.R. Giddens.  All were great athletes with prototypical size.  None could actually play. 

In fact, I think some of Danny's biggest hits have been going with guys who can play, but weren't actually the right size (like BBD, Powe, Gomes, TA, and Bradley). 

So is Sullinger a guarantee to be the next David West or Carlos Boozer?  No.  But drafting a guy who knows how to play the game, but is an inch or two shorter is a better idea that drafting some 7-0 athletic guy who will never amount to more than a Jerome Moiso or a Ryan Hollins (though I like Hollins, but he's certainly not a building block for a franchise). 

Very well said, exactly what I was getting at with my post.

Everyone we could take has flaws (Royce White - Attitude/Mental Issues , Nicholson - not an athlete, Wroten Jr. - No jumper, etc) and while he has those issues, he has strengths that will no doubt translate IMO.  Dudes going to be able to board, he will be a solid defender, and he will be able to score in the post with either hand.  Will probably struggle with length, but he has upside to be better too.  I think his jumpshot will greately improve.

Think about what Bass was doing this year.  He won't be the same finisher or as good of a shooter (but as I said I expect him to work on that), but add in post scoring that Bass has zero of. 

That'd be a big addition.  We have only had one real post scorer in the Rondo era in Shaq and our offense was unstoppable with that piece of the puzzle.  Not saying he's Shaq, but he'd bring a post scoring presence.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=jared-sullinger&glen-davis=2005-2006&p1=glen-davis

That's comparing Glen's sophomore year with Sullingers. There really isn't a big difference in stats. They both made it to a final 4 as sophomores too. To me that is Jared's peak...Glen Davis...except Davis has weight issues where Sullinger's issue is a bad back. 

I've already seen the bigs come out of Ohio State in past years and none of them are that great in the league.

... Who are those OSU bigs besides Oden?  Who would be probably the 2nd best C in the league if it wasn't for his knees btw.

[Fafnir]

Ok.  Let's compare the back up big's numbers with some starters last post season.  Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan and Carlos Boozer in the post seasnon, Tyson Chandler, Spencer Hawes 16%, Chris Bosh 15%, David West, Kendrick Perkins and Glen Davis 14%, Serge Ibaka and Boris Diaw 12%, Amare Stoudemire and Blake Griffin 11.5%, Elton Brand 10%

As far as his shooting he shot very slightly worse than Elton Brand and David West and shot better than Zach Randolph.  People who are similar in build.

Anymore theories?

For a C playing 38 MPG a 14 Reb% is low and a 14 DReb% is awful. Especially when there are a ton of available defensive boards. 18th out of 28 Cs isn't good, sounds about backup level to me.

As for shooting efficiency .481 TS% is just bad, the fact that other players also shot poorly doesn't change that fact. Ranks him 101 out of 153 players in the playoffs, which is even worse when you consider Davis didn't get many assists and also took 19 shots per game.

[Yogi]

If he is available at 21, take him no second doubts.

I wouldn't even have first doubts, or second questions.

[Fafnir]

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=jared-sullinger&glen-davis=2005-2006&p1=glen-davis

That's comparing Glen's sophomore year with Sullingers. There really isn't a big difference in stats. They both made it to a final 4 as sophomores too. To me that is Jared's peak...Glen Davis...except Davis has weight issues where Sullinger's issue is a bad back.  

I've already seen the bigs come out of Ohio State in past years and none of them are that great in the league.

Their raw numbers are nearly identical, but Sullinger was notably more efficient offensively and a much better defensive rebounder while being worse (but my a much smaller margin) on the offensive glass.

[snively]

Big Baby's numbers against Indy were also inflated by Indy's defensive weakness.  Hibbert was so slow on the pick and rolls with Baby/Nelson that Baby was wide open in the lane regularly on the roll.  Credit Baby for finishing those opportunities, but most big men would put up decent numbers in that situation.

[Fafnir]

Big Baby's numbers against Indy were also inflated by Indy's defensive weakness.  Hibbert was so slow on the pick and rolls with Baby/Nelson that Baby was wide open in the lane regularly on the roll.  Credit Baby for finishing those opportunities, but most big men would put up decent numbers in that situation.

Well part of that was also strategy, the Pacers seemed to gameplan to try and stop 3s on the perimeter over other offensive options.

Davis did similar things to use on the P&R late in the season, he and Nelson worked very role in the P&R with the floor spaced out.

[snively]

Big Baby's numbers against Indy were also inflated by Indy's defensive weakness.  Hibbert was so slow on the pick and rolls with Baby/Nelson that Baby was wide open in the lane regularly on the roll.  Credit Baby for finishing those opportunities, but most big men would put up decent numbers in that situation.

Well part of that was also strategy, the Pacers seemed to gameplan to try and stop 3s on the perimeter over other offensive options.

Davis did similar things to use on the P&R late in the season, he and Nelson worked very role in the P&R with the floor spaced out.

Certainly filling in for Howard on a team geared to make things easier on the 5 man counts as an inflationary effect too.

[Yogi]

Wow I am amazed with some of the excuses people come up with to explain how averaging 19 and 9 in a playoff series against a number 5 seed in the league playing against a 7'2 ALL STAR center, filling in for a top 5 player in the league.  I mean... come on.  Seriously?  Probably the same people who go well Rondo had a triple double and we won... but.

[Dchuck]

There is all kinds of back problems. some are serious and some are not. From what i've read this isn't very serious and shouldn't hamper him in the future. Would you rather have a total scrub in Melo or a very skilled player with some not to serious health concerns in Sullinger? I very much hope he slides to us in the draft.

Quite the contrary.  If his back issues aren't as serious as we are lead to believe than this entire argument is a moot point.  He won't be available pass #10.

Also, on a side note.  For someone who was supposed to be a top 3 pick last year only to go back to school and all of a sudden be top 10 this year (without back problems, mind you) its rather interesting.  Did he regress?  Was he simply overhyped?  Was it based more on potential?  Or did people get another year to see what he really is.  Actually, very similar to Harrison Barnes.  

Comparitavely, its also similar to the fact more players are deciding not to participate in the draft combine or not going back to school another year.  These players are being advised (by their agents) to sell their HYPE and POTENTIAL through limited playing time/highlights rather than have the opportunity to show any of their flaws.

I'ld be curious to see, if he stayed in school next year, where he would go in next year's draft.  Would his back be worse?  Would he gain or lose any more weight?

And, no, I don't like Melo, either.  I'm not saying its easy drafting the right players.  Thats why Danny makes the big $$$$!