Before I get to Artest, let me just state something obvious...
Basketball players, in particular NBA players, throw elbows all the time. Everyone who has played the game knows you are essentially taught to use your elbows to clear out space. That is not to say that you are supposed to jack someone up in the jaw, but swinging of the elbows is definitely NOT frowned upon by anyone, until you hit someone. So there is some hypocrisy here.
Now. Artest is a complete tool. I don't care what he's done to try and rehabilitate his image. He is a goon and a thug, always has been (much like Dennis Rodman.) It is part of his persona, and that's why he's such a good defender. Players go into matches against him knowing he is two pints short of a quart, and they are intimidated.
There is no doubt in my mind that Artest threw that elbow intentionally, in the perfect moment to try and get away with it, to try and intimidate OKC and Harden, if not hurt him. It's like he is planting a seed, and hoping it will sprout in the playoffs. My guess is that he overplayed his hand and will be suspended long enough to miss a potential OKC rematch. That is the only way Stern can send a...uh...stern message to the league that this crap won't be tolerated.
If he only gets suspended for the first round, however, Artest's strategy will be proven genius. He may have kicked the hornets nest, but I bet Harden will think more than twice anytime he is near that psycho.