Jeff Green>Josh Smith

[Roy H.]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHA

You just told me you would rather have an average, second-string SF who hasn't played basketball in two years because of a serious heart condition over a proven All-Star PF???

I love CB, man

Actually yes.  I also said Avery Bradley was going to be a legitimate NBA player/potential star in this league because of his defense.  

Avery Bradley will never be a legit starter in the NBA

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204010BOS.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204100MIA.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204070IND.html

It's off-topic, but I'm surprised to read the "Avery Bradley can't start" stuff, too.  He's averaging double digit points as a starter, while playing excellent defense. 

If I had to have one guy on my team going forward, I'd take Bradley over Green.

[indeedproceed]

Side question, but I really don't understand what you're saying here:

The net net of it can be summed up as, in 48 minutes of play, he's +5.7 at SF, -2.3 at PF.   That's a pretty compelling difference.  The first is near all-star level.  The latter is bench player.

A) How did you get to 'near All-Star'? Is there a database you're comparing this to, or is it something you just know from looking at 82 games numbers?

B) Just so I'm sure here, you're only using Green's pp48 vs opposing SF's pp48 (and the corresponding #'s for PF), right?

C) How many minutes did Jeff Green actually play at the SF position with Boston last season? I'm coming up with right around 400.

If C is true, Green also played ~400 minutes at the 3 with OKC in '10, and his numbers look dramatically worse there.

Of course, right after I write that, I look at his '09 numbers and offensively he looks about teh same as he did in Boston (although way worse defensively.

I guess what I'm saying is that there doesn't seem to be an over-abundance of evidence showing that Green is at a 'near All-Star' level at the 3, at least to my eyes. He's got a small sample size of good play as a second unit player.

Josh Smith has a career as a starter at the 4, with some time at the 3, and in that he's consistently out-performed Green.

[indeedproceed]

If I had to have one guy on my team going forward, I'd take Bradley over Green.

Yup.

[Roy H.]

Here is a link to his splits while with Boston last year:

http://www.82games.com/1011/10BOS12.HTM#bypos

The net net of it can be summed up as, in 48 minutes of play, he's +5.7 at SF, -2.3 at PF.   That's a pretty compelling difference.  The first is near all-star level.  The latter is bench player.

I'm not sure you can look at a stat like individual point differential, and describe it as "all-star level".  First, if you look at his raw performance, Green has a 13.8 PER at SF.  That's below league-average PER.  Second, the performance came in situations where the Celtics were actually outscored on average, and where the offensive efficiency was an anemic 85.0 points per 100 possessions.  Green was near last on the team in terms of +/-.

It's obviously good that Green generally outscored the guy he was guarding.  However, on balance, the team played poorly with him in the game, especially at SF.  Part of that may be due to his lack of other contributions, such as rebounding, passing, etc.

[Fafnir]

It's obviously good that Green generally outscored the guy he was guarding.  However, on balance, the team played poorly with him in the game, especially at SF.  Part of that may be due to his lack of other contributions, such as rebounding, passing, etc.

The sample size of him at SF is so small its hard to draw any conclusions. It looks like most of his SF was without Garnett on the floor, that alone will skew team performance heavily against him.

But you're right that there certainly isn't any evidence from his brief minutes at SF with the C's that convinces me he's a future star at the position.

[myteamisbetterthanyours]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHA

You just told me you would rather have an average, second-string SF who hasn't played basketball in two years because of a serious heart condition over a proven All-Star PF???

I love CB, man

Actually yes.  I also said Avery Bradley was going to be a legitimate NBA player/potential star in this league because of his defense.  

Avery Bradley will never be a legit starter in the NBA

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204010BOS.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204100MIA.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204070IND.html

It's off-topic, but I'm surprised to read the "Avery Bradley can't start" stuff, too.  He's averaging double digit points as a starter, while playing excellent defense. 

If I had to have one guy on my team going forward, I'd take Bradley over Green.

Yea I don't know what that guys talking about. Avery Bradley is NBA starter quality with star potential at a ripe 21 years of age.

Back to Jeff Green tho. He'll be a beast once he gets a starting job at small forward.  He's got too many tools not to be effective, if not dominant at that position IMO.

[myteamisbetterthanyours]

Think about it this way.. Nobody thought Avery Bradley would be effective at the 2 because hes so small.  But it's his tools that make him extremely effective at that position.  He's quicker than any 2 guard in the league probably besides Ellis, he's just as long as many twos in terms of wingspan, and hes athletic as hell. 

Jeff Green has the tools to be a great small forward. Not just good, not just ok, not just above average, but great.

He's long (Deng). He's strong (Lebron).  He's pretty quick, he can shoot, and he's smart.  There is no reason why he can't be good at that position with starters minutes and a bigger sampling size.

[wdleehi]

Think about it this way.. Nobody thought Avery Bradley would be effective at the 2 because hes so small.  But it's his tools that make him extremely effective at that position.  He's quicker than any 2 guard in the league probably besides Ellis, he's just as long as many twos in terms of wingspan, and hes athletic as hell. 

Jeff Green has the tools to be a great small forward. Not just good, not just ok, not just above average, but great.

He's long (Deng). He's strong (Lebron).  He's pretty quick, he can shoot, and he's smart.  There is no reason why he can't be good at that position.

He has matchup issues with larger G.


I think he is looking like a starting quality G, I more question whether with Rondo as the starting PG, he is the right fit because of his size.  (if Rondo was as big as Jason Kidd or Billups, this would not be a question)

[Marcus13]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHA

You just told me you would rather have an average, second-string SF who hasn't played basketball in two years because of a serious heart condition over a proven All-Star PF???

I love CB, man

Actually yes.  I also said Avery Bradley was going to be a legitimate NBA player/potential star in this league because of his defense.  

Avery Bradley will never be a legit starter in the NBA

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204010BOS.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204100MIA.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204070IND.html

Incredibly simple to fly under the radar at guard in the NBA when nobody knows who you are ; see John Lucas, Jeremy Lin.  You have to remember the NBA players typically don't watch other teams games during the season; most of those guys have no idea who Avery Bradley is when they lineup across from him.  Things will change quickly if he can make some noise in the playoffs

[indeedproceed]

Think about it this way.. Nobody thought Avery Bradley would be effective at the 2 because hes so small.  But it's his tools that make him extremely effective at that position.  He's quicker than any 2 guard in the league probably besides Ellis, he's just as long as many twos in terms of wingspan, and hes athletic as hell.  

Jeff Green has the tools to be a great small forward. Not just good, not just ok, not just above average, but great.

He's long (Deng). He's strong (Lebron).  He's pretty quick, he can shoot, and he's smart.  There is no reason why he can't be good at that position.

I was thinking you were gonna say 'and bout to get the friction on'

Jeff Green is an okay jump shooter. Not great, but okay. With Boston he was well below average as a 3pt shooter, and he was well above average when he shot long 2's (a shot he attempted pretty often, oddly enough). Mid-range he was about average, and around the rim he was a slightly below average scorer among SF's.

As a SF, his skillset is unorthodox.

[mmmmm]

Side question, but I really don't understand what you're saying here:

The net net of it can be summed up as, in 48 minutes of play, he's +5.7 at SF, -2.3 at PF.   That's a pretty compelling difference.  The first is near all-star level.  The latter is bench player.

A) How did you get to 'near All-Star'? Is there a database you're comparing this to, or is it something you just know from looking at 82 games numbers?

B) Just so I'm sure here, you're only using Green's pp48 vs opposing SF's pp48 (and the corresponding #'s for PF), right?

C) How many minutes did Jeff Green actually play at the SF position with Boston last season? I'm coming up with right around 400.

If C is true, Green also played ~400 minutes at the 3 with OKC in '10, and his numbers look dramatically worse there.

Of course, right after I write that, I look at his '09 numbers and offensively he looks about teh same as he did in Boston (although way worse defensively.

I guess what I'm saying is that there doesn't seem to be an over-abundance of evidence showing that Green is at a 'near All-Star' level at the 3, at least to my eyes. He's got a small sample size of good play as a second unit player.

Josh Smith has a career as a starter at the 4, with some time at the 3, and in that he's consistently out-performed Green.

As an example, Paul Pierce was an all star at +8 at SF.  Don't take the comment to be that exacting.  The main takeaway is simply that Green is very good at SF and not so good at PF.

Yes, JG posted around 400 minutes at SF for us last year (not including playoffs, where he arguably played some of his best ball).

His offensive numbers at OKC will always be a bit tainted for me.  Even when he would sub at the 3 for KD, they just still wouldn't utilize him right, in my opinion.  Compared to how BOS used him, at OKC he took just one or two shots less per 48, but more telling, he also took fewer free throws and posted a lower FG% - indicative that we had him going to the basket less than when we got him.   With Westbrook, JG was more likely to be asked to pick & pop than cut.  With Rondo, JG was getting to the hoop more.

The main indicator that you can take from his OKC numbers is that defensively he was, again, much more solid against SFs than PFs.

And again, my main point has never been that JG is better than JS.  Rather that this comparison (JG vs JS) is flawed because each player is good at different things.

[mmmmm]

Here is a link to his splits while with Boston last year:

http://www.82games.com/1011/10BOS12.HTM#bypos

The net net of it can be summed up as, in 48 minutes of play, he's +5.7 at SF, -2.3 at PF.   That's a pretty compelling difference.  The first is near all-star level.  The latter is bench player.

I'm not sure you can look at a stat like individual point differential, and describe it as "all-star level".  First, if you look at his raw performance, Green has a 13.8 PER at SF.  That's below league-average PER.  Second, the performance came in situations where the Celtics were actually outscored on average, and where the offensive efficiency was an anemic 85.0 points per 100 possessions.  Green was near last on the team in terms of +/-.

It's obviously good that Green generally outscored the guy he was guarding.  However, on balance, the team played poorly with him in the game, especially at SF.  Part of that may be due to his lack of other contributions, such as rebounding, passing, etc.

As I said to IP, try not to read too much into the 'near all-star' comment.  That was more a statement about the specific number, not necessarily about Jeff Green.  'Just trying to put into perspective the difference between +5.7 and -2.3.

A lot of our offensive woes down the stretch of last spring had mostly to do with how banged up Rondo was by then.   I don't want to dive into all the specifics of everything that was going on.  Your last comment seems a little back-handed.

I've been following Jeff Green's game for years so much of my assessment of him comes from the 'eyeball' perspective.  I have a pretty good idea of what he can and can't do on the court and I (and a lot of others who have watched him) have been consistent in this view that he has been very much a mis-cast and under-utilized player through almost his whole career.  That he is a natural SF and an undersized PF.

I have very high confidence that if given a chance to play primarily at SF, within a system like Boston plays, that he would excel.  I am not in the business of making silly predictions like all-star appearances.  Just that he would almost certainly play very well.

[Chief]

The Jeff Green I saw with the Celtics, last year, was mediocre at best. Maybe it was the heart thing, but he was not a guy I'd invest major long term money in.

[bucknersrevenge]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHA

You just told me you would rather have an average, second-string SF who hasn't played basketball in two years because of a serious heart condition over a proven All-Star PF???

I love CB, man

Actually yes.  I also said Avery Bradley was going to be a legitimate NBA player/potential star in this league because of his defense.  

Avery Bradley will never be a legit starter in the NBA

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204010BOS.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204100MIA.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201204070IND.html

It's off-topic, but I'm surprised to read the "Avery Bradley can't start" stuff, too.  He's averaging double digit points as a starter, while playing excellent defense. 

If I had to have one guy on my team going forward, I'd take Bradley over Green.

LOL Wow...and I assumed that was sarcasm.

[bucknersrevenge]

Think about it this way.. Nobody thought Avery Bradley would be effective at the 2 because hes so small.  But it's his tools that make him extremely effective at that position.  He's quicker than any 2 guard in the league probably besides Ellis, he's just as long as many twos in terms of wingspan, and hes athletic as hell.  

Jeff Green has the tools to be a great small forward. Not just good, not just ok, not just above average, but great.

He's long (Deng). He's strong (Lebron).  He's pretty quick, he can shoot, and he's smart.  There is no reason why he can't be good at that position.

I was thinking you were gonna say 'and bout to get the friction on'
Jeff Green is an okay jump shooter. Not great, but okay. With Boston he was well below average as a 3pt shooter, and he was well above average when he shot long 2's (a shot he attempted pretty often, oddly enough). Mid-range he was about average, and around the rim he was a slightly below average scorer among SF's.

As a SF, his skillset is unorthodox.

Best line of the thread. TP.