salary cap wise, Smith probably isn't a good option. I only want to renounce the current free agents if KG retires. IF KG stays in Boston, then I'd rather have the combination of Bass, Green, Pietrus, Allen, Stiemsma over Smith.
The financials:
Pierce, Rondo, Bradley, Johnson, 2 firsts cost: $32-33 million
KG might cost $12 million.
If the cap is 55-58, the C's would only have $11-14m to spend on free agents. josh Smith would require almost all of that in a trade.
...
But if KG retires, and the Hawks want to trade him in a salary dump and a couple of the young guys, I might be tempted to try him out for a year.
TP, I think this is the right way to look at it. Things start with whether KG is coming back, both because you can still build a contending team centered around him, Pierce and Rondo, and because his cap hold alone essentially puts Boston over the cap so if they want to use any space, they have to resign KG or renounce his rights.
If KG stays, you look at getting the best talent and depth you can put together to try for two more years while building up young players and staying under the luxury tax level. And to maximize resources, that likely means keeping the guys they have rights to: Allen, Bass, Green. I'm not sure the extent of their rights to Stiemsma and Pietrus as both are minimum contract guys who have been here for only one season.
In that circumstance, Smith becomes a tough fit. Whatever the Cs give up in terms of assets (i.e., a first and Johnson or the two firsts), they basically have to add Green, Bass and Allen to what they're giving up. I think $12 is a good number for KG. If they did that and brought in Smith for Johnson and one of the firsts, they'd be right at the cap for Rondo, Bradley, Pierce, Smith and KG, with a bench of one of the firsts. They'd have to fill 3-4 rotation spots and at least 6 roster spots with only a $2.5 mil midlevel exception and minimum contracts. Not ideal.
If on the other hand they sign KG and hold onto Johnson and the first, the Celtics would be at about $45 million for Rondo, Bradley, Pierce and KG with Johnson and the two firsts, plus they hold onto Moore for $750K. To fill out the roster, they have the ability to bring back Allen, Green and Bass at any salary (provided they don't hit the luxury threshold) or pick up assets in a sign and trade of one or more of those guys. They also have a $5 million midlevel available which would be more than enough to bring back Stiemsma and Pietrus, take a run at a restricted free agent like Jason Thompson, Marreese Speights or OJ Mayo, or bring back Stiemsma and another younger player like Anthony Randolph, Ian Mahinmi, or Hasheem Thabeet.
So basically, a trade for Smith combined with keeping KG means that you're giving up two of Johnson and the two firsts, Allen, Bass, Green and about $2.5 mil in available space for outside free agents for Josh Smith. I don't think he's worth that ransom especially when he's a free agent next summer.
But if KG is gone, it becomes at least a possibility to bring some talent and entertainment to town while rebuilding.