Will the C's renounce all free agents this offseason?

[the_Bird]

Green has never been very good when asked to play PF, though.  And, we really need a starting-caliber PF more than a SF, since I don't think Pierce is going anywhere.

And, it all comes down to dollars.  Green and Bass are both  good, but if re-signing them prevents you from being able to add an impact player, you give them a hearty "thank you!" and drive them to the airport.  

If Green and Bass come back cheaply and/or on short deals, great.  Don't think that's happening, though.

If Green and Bass come back and we've basically burned our cap space on them, that's the worst outcome.

And, I don't think Bass is any better than he was last year (his numbers are nearly identical), which makes me think he's not likely going to get any better.  

[Jon]

I really think that not only will Danny not renounce the free agents right away, I think it's quite likely he brings a lot, if not all, of them back.  

The absolute worst thing DA could do would be do pull a Joe Dumars and blow all of his cap money on second tier free agents and condemn himself to perpetual mediocrity (or in Detroit's case, worse).  

So I really think he'd be totally on board with bringing back Ray, Paul, Bass, Pietrus, and Green, particularly on one year deals.  Now convincing the latter three to do this would be a tough sell; however, if Bass only finds MLE money out there, would he be willing to take a one year deal for 6-8 million.  And with Jeff Green, does anyone really expect some team is going to offer him a long term deal until he proves he can stay on the court?  

And by doing this, Danny does three key things:

1) He retains the value all of these players have.

2) He creates lots of expiring contracts.

3) He keeps the Celtics reasonably good.  And while that may not seem like a great draft move, it could be good for a free agent sell.  Do we really want free agents to start to associate Boston with the Charlottes and Tornotos of the world?  

I think this is mostly right, although I do think someone will pay Jeff Green.  Jeff Green's situation is weird because he's been a durable player except for the heart condition.  If he gets the medical clearance, I don't think he'll have to do as much "proving himself" as someone might who was coming off a knee surgery, for example.  If he has anything to prove, it's basketball-related, not health; is Green anything more than the basketball equivalent of an innings-eating fourth starter?

Priority, I think, will be to re-sign KG; something like 1 year, $10M.  He's worth that, and that's enough $$ to keep him from feeling like he needs to bolt to Miami or New Jersey.  

Ray Allen, I think walks.  He'll be in demand, he'll basically have his choice of MLE jobs.

Bass, I think (and kind of hope) walks, because he's going to demand at least a Big Baby-level contract.  He's good but not good enough to rebuild around.  He and Green kind of scare me, because those two guys have the potential - if Danny does something stupid - of being the equivalent of our Ben Gordon and Charlie V.  Good players who are apt to be overpaid, who aren't going to get any better, who aren't good enough to rebuild around.  And, I don't think either one re-signs for only one season.

The only thing with Ray is this: would he take another 8-10 million dollar 1 year deal over a longer MLE deal?  I certainly wouldn't match any multi-year MLE deal he gets, but I'd certainly overpay him for 1 more year.  And Ray might be better off that way too, since he'd likely make in 1 year here what he'd make in 2 somewhere else and he'd still likely be able to get a 2 year deal at the MLE level from some contender in the summer of 2013. 

[goCeltics]

i would resign allen, kg and green, resigning green this year to reduce his cap hold next year should create enough cap room to sign IIyasova or Hawes as well next year. I be tempted to renounce nobody and try and sign humphries or jason hill using the mle, which would be an alternative course of action

[2short]

Green has never been very good when asked to play PF, though.  And, we really need a starting-caliber PF more than a SF, since I don't think Pierce is going anywhere.

And, it all comes down to dollars.  Green and Bass are both  good, but if re-signing them prevents you from being able to add an impact player, you give them a hearty "thank you!" and drive them to the airport.  

If Green and Bass come back cheaply and/or on short deals, great.  Don't think that's happening, though.

If Green and Bass come back and we've basically burned our cap space on them, that's the worst outcome.

And, I don't think Bass is any better than he was last year (his numbers are nearly identical), which makes me think he's not likely going to get any better.  

agree and up your ante  (how is that spelled?)
ray allen falls into same scenario as bass & green, ray's defensive game and getting free have fallen a lot this year, if he resigns at a good deal for team great otherwise bye bye

i am for one not trading pierce but like the idea of green at a price
kg coming back is the biggest issue for what we need in terms of major signing, he plays like he is now and wants to come back as center great, we need a starting caliber pf (not bass or green)

also voting for signing greg & pietrus back for next year!

[LooseCannon]

As a team that paid the luxury tax this year, Boston would only have a $3 million MLE instead of the $5 million MLE that non-tax-paying but over-the-cap teams get, even if they don't project to be over the luxury line this year.

I'd say I mostly agree with everything else you said in your post, except the part I've quoted.

If I'm reading this right, it seems you're suggesting the specific version of the MLE we would have to use next season is based on this season's luxury tax status.  Meaning, if the C's are over the tax-threshold in the 2011-12 season (which they are), we would only have the mini-MLE to use in the 2012-13 season.

I'm pretty sure this is wrong.  I'm pretty sure it's based on the specific season you're actually in.

This is based only on my reading of various breakdowns of the new CBA so I could absolutely be wrong. But this interpretation actually makes sense. How can the league know in the summer of 2012 whether or not a team will be over the luxury tax level at the end of the 2012-13 season? For example, a team may still be $3 million under the luxury level after signing a guy with the $5 mil MLE. That contract is made. But then it may sign two guys to minimum contracts and during the season make a trade that adds $3 million in salary. Or the MLE signing may occur when a team is only a couple million over the cap, but then the team resigns a couple of its own free agents for $25 million. Then it's a tax paying team. But it has already signed a contract with that player to pay him $5 million even though it should only have been able to use $3 million. That contract can't be voided midseason.

That's why if the league is going to differentiate between the MLE a tax paying team can use, and the MLE a non-tax-paying team can use, it has to be based on the previous season, not the current one. That's the closest season for which the league can be certain whether or not the team was over the luxury tax level. (Note: this same logic wouldn't apply to using the "under-the-cap" MLE. Whether or not a team was under the cap to sign players is known with certainty during the summer. That MLE applies only when the team has used all of its cap space, and thus is right at the cap limit, and otherwise only has the minimum contract available to sign ANY player, whether the player was on its roster last year or another team.)

As I understand it, you can't use the full MLE if it will bring you over the salary cap threshold and your further transactions are limited so that you are not allowed to take on salary that puts you a tax-payer.  There seemed to be a sense that if you cleared just enough space to use the full MLE, then you might not be allowed to use the minimum salary exception to exceed the tax threshold if you had a rash of injuries.  So, using the full MLE amounts to accepting a hard cap for that season.

[LarBrd33]

They might find that they are better off not renouncing anyone, actually.   Renouncing everyone leaves them with only 25 million in cap room.  They then have to find a way of splitting up that 25 million between:

Ray
KG
Jeff Green
Brandon Bass

And then of course you'd also have to renounce Pietrus, Pavlovik, Daniels, Stiesma, JO, Wilcox and Dooling which is less of an issue, because you can probably bring back all of those guys for min contracts anyhow.

But I can see that 25 million running out pretty quick.  Ray and KG presumably both can take 10 million each...Bass taking 5 mil at the very least (since he's opting out of a player option that would pay him 4.2 mil)...  That leaves you without anything to even bring back Jeff Green.

In other words... this "cap space" is a myth.  The best bet will probably be to just bring everyone back extended through Pierce's contract (since he's the one preventing us from having substantial cap space) and try to sign a capable big man with the MLE (Chris Kaman is a huge pipe dream there)... So unless Ainge goes in a "blow it up" move where he lets Ray and KG walk for nothing and amnesty's Pierce... we're probably looking at a couple more years of being also-rans before finally bottoming out and starting a rebuild around draft picks. 

[paintitgreen]

This is based only on my reading of various breakdowns of the new CBA so I could absolutely be wrong. But this interpretation actually makes sense. How can the league know in the summer of 2012 whether or not a team will be over the luxury tax level at the end of the 2012-13 season? For example, a team may still be $3 million under the luxury level after signing a guy with the $5 mil MLE. That contract is made. But then it may sign two guys to minimum contracts and during the season make a trade that adds $3 million in salary. Or the MLE signing may occur when a team is only a couple million over the cap, but then the team resigns a couple of its own free agents for $25 million. Then it's a tax paying team. But it has already signed a contract with that player to pay him $5 million even though it should only have been able to use $3 million. That contract can't be voided midseason.

That's why if the league is going to differentiate between the MLE a tax paying team can use, and the MLE a non-tax-paying team can use, it has to be based on the previous season, not the current one. That's the closest season for which the league can be certain whether or not the team was over the luxury tax level. 

As I understand it, you can't use the full MLE if it will bring you over the salary cap threshold and your further transactions are limited so that you are not allowed to take on salary that puts you a tax-payer.  There seemed to be a sense that if you cleared just enough space to use the full MLE, then you might not be allowed to use the minimum salary exception to exceed the tax threshold if you had a rash of injuries.  So, using the full MLE amounts to accepting a hard cap for that season.

Yeah, now I'm thinking you might be right. I looked at salaries and Shane Battier only got the $3 million midlevel with 4.5% raises - the luxury tax payers' midlevel. The Heat didn't pay the luxury tax last year but are paying it this year. Which would support the idea that the size of the midlevel is based on whether the team will be paying the tax that season, not whether they paid it the previous season.

[Q_FBE]

I think Danny will try to work out sign and trade deals like he worked with Glen Davis for Brandon Bass. But I don't expect Danny to make the same mistake like he made with Mark Blount, whose agent bamboozled Danny into a full max midlevel deal.

We do not need future amnesty candidates here.

[paintitgreen]

Only amnesty candidates for the Celtics are Pierce and Rondo. Amnesty can only be used on contracts signed before the CBA. And you can't amnesty a guy that you trade for (I initially thought you could, which is why I wanted the Celtics to try to get Okafor and Minnesota's first rounder for expiring contracts).

[droopdog7]

Outside of a sign and trade Allen or Bass move, I don't see where the value is in not renouncing most if not all of these guys.

With the amount they'd be under the cap, they could bring back anyone they wanted to anyway.

But if they brought them back by using cap space after renouncing them, they would be giving up the rights to use the MLE.

If they brought them back at lower contracts, the Celts wouldn't need to renounce them.  How that impacts the MLE I don't know.

[guava_wrench]

They might find that they are better off not renouncing anyone, actually.   Renouncing everyone leaves them with only 25 million in cap room.  They then have to find a way of splitting up that 25 million between:

Ray
KG
Jeff Green
Brandon Bass

And then of course you'd also have to renounce Pietrus, Pavlovik, Daniels, Stiesma, JO, Wilcox and Dooling which is less of an issue, because you can probably bring back all of those guys for min contracts anyhow.

But I can see that 25 million running out pretty quick.  Ray and KG presumably both can take 10 million each...Bass taking 5 mil at the very least (since he's opting out of a player option that would pay him 4.2 mil)...  That leaves you without anything to even bring back Jeff Green.

In other words... this "cap space" is a myth.  The best bet will probably be to just bring everyone back extended through Pierce's contract (since he's the one preventing us from having substantial cap space) and try to sign a capable big man with the MLE (Chris Kaman is a huge pipe dream there)... So unless Ainge goes in a "blow it up" move where he lets Ray and KG walk for nothing and amnesty's Pierce... we're probably looking at a couple more years of being also-rans before finally bottoming out and starting a rebuild around draft picks. 

If KG would sign cheap, can we just sign him really quickly? His contract will be less than his cap hold.

Jeff Green is tougher since he will look around for contracts.

The main reason I see for renouncing all would be if the team doubted that they would sign with the team and needed the ability to sign other free agents that want to be here. This could require getting rid of cap holds.

[paintitgreen]

After listening to KG on EEI yesterday, I think he might explore his options, and I'm not sure what he'll take or what he'll do. Honestly, he might take a $10 million offer as insulting (he made some comments about this being a players league heading in the wrong direction where players are getting screwed by the teams, and believing players need to stand up more, I think he's extremely unhappy with how the lockout was resolved) and decide to retire. Or he might just be even more upset about the Celtics trading Perk - and ripping apart his "family" (he mentioned how that word doesn't mean anything anymore) - than Rondo was, and just decide to move on. The best trump card is that he clearly loves playing for Doc. But that interview made me feel far less confident that he actually would want to come back to Boston.

[Chris]

After listening to KG on EEI yesterday, I think he might explore his options, and I'm not sure what he'll take or what he'll do. Honestly, he might take a $10 million offer as insulting (he made some comments about this being a players league heading in the wrong direction where players are getting screwed by the teams, and believing players need to stand up more, I think he's extremely unhappy with how the lockout was resolved) and decide to retire. Or he might just be even more upset about the Celtics trading Perk - and ripping apart his "family" (he mentioned how that word doesn't mean anything anymore) - than Rondo was, and just decide to move on. The best trump card is that he clearly loves playing for Doc. But that interview made me feel far less confident that he actually would want to come back to Boston.

Why would he retire?  He would just go to one of the other teams that are going to offer him much more money.

I agree that a $10 million offer might be insulting to him (at least on just 1 year), but I expect him to get much bigger offers than that from some teams.