It is *extremely* unlikely. There are four teams below the Clips right now. Suppose each of them has a 40% chance of passing the Clips by the end of the year.
The Clips only miss the playoffs if ALL of those teams pass them. This will happen with a probability equal to 0.4*0.4*0.4*0.4=0.025.
In other words, around 2.5%.
I see it as more likely that the Celtics, despite being 3 games ahead of NY and Mil, will miss the playoffs. This is because only two teams need to pass them.
If NY and Mil each have a 25% chance of passing the C's (I picked a lower number because of the greater gap in records), then the C's have a chance of missing equal to 0.25*0.25=0.0625. Around 6%.
This analysis is flawed because the chances of each team passing the Clippers and/or Celtics are not independent variables.
Instead they are dependent variables that are heavily correlated upon the Clippers/Celtics own performance in future games.
Well, if you're going to be picky then what you say is "flawed." What creates the interdependence is the fact that the teams trying to pass the Clips/C's play each other, and the Clips (or Celtics).
You could examine the impact of the interdependence by looking at how often the teams involved play each other.
Just asserting that there will be a "heavy" correlation is "flawed" too, and so is the statement that the correlation depends on performance, which can only be measured after the fact. It depends on how often the teams match up with each other.
The more games the four teams trying to pass the Clips play against each other, the greater the probability that the Clips make it, because any win for one team is a loss for another.
Since ESPN isn't paying me a salary, I made the independence assumption to save my work day. I did think about it when picking the 25% and 40% numbers, though.
All of this is less of a factor for the Celtics, because the Knicks and Bucks will play each other and the Celtics less often.
