IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)

[indeedproceed]

So you believe that Amare Stoudemire didn't bring significant value to the Phoenix Suns and NYK?

I believe that there's enough data to support that he might not bring as much value as one might think. I know that sounds like an on the fence answer, but I guess that's where I am.

I've seen him dominate games and play incredible. But there's certainly some evidence to support that the pluses might not outweigh the negatives. Even with a strong supporting cast, if he's as elite as we seem to think, you'd think that there would be a bigger impact overall.

So the Suns losing 14 more games the year after he left, and the Knicks gaining (who were the other major changes?), and the Knicks gaining 13 games after his arrival doesn't carry any weight?

The 'evidence' Nick listed was the season he missed when he was 23, and a down year for the Suns where he only played in 53 of 82 games (possible contributing to the 'down' nature of the year?).

I don't see that as any kind of proof. Amare left a team while he was in his prime where he was the high scorer, and leader in minutes played, and the next season they fall from a 3rd seed to the lottery.

I just don't even get how this is a 'thing'.

I think you could argue that the examples are extreme:

Amare, as well as Ronny Turiaf joined an absolutely pathetic Knicks front court, and the Suns replaced Amare with Hakim Warrick and Josh Childress.

I know what you're saying, but I think you could also make the argument that even an average PF would have similar effects here.

Hakim Warrick yr before Suns: 15.7 PER
First yr with Suns: 16.51 PER

League Average: 15.0

Hakim Warrick: Average PF.

You could send me every stat in the world, there's no chance I will accept Hakim Warrick as an average power forward.

Fair point (I wouldn't either). He's average among ALL PF's in the league, but among starters, he's a bit below. He is (or was) among the worst starting 4's in the leauge.

But if you Antawn Jamison on those Suns, they don't do was well. And when you thought 'average power forward', you thought Antawn Jamison. Don't lie.

[Who]

I'd rate Hakim Warrick as a low end backup PF to a high end third string PF.

[indeedproceed]

MATCHUP #6:

LA Lakers (3, H) V Memphis Grizzlies (6, A)
Farmar V Kidd
Bryant V Miller
Thabo V Gay
Gasol V West
Asik V Gasol
-Bench-
Barbosa V CJ Watson
D Stevenson V M Redd
Maggette V Donte Greene
Taj Gibson V N Collison
Turiaf V Joel Anthony

Key Matchup: Kobe Bryant Vs Jason Kidd
First, I’m assuming Kidd guards Bryant, because if its Miller, or Redd, or Von Wafer, its an absolute bloodbath, and that the Grizzlies are going to allow CJ Watson on the floor more often than not next to Kidd. That said, we’ve already seen this little party play out. Kidd guarded Bryant for a lot of the 2nd round sweep of the Lakers last year. It didn’t go great for Kidd, but it went better than it would’ve against a lot of other guys. Bryant shot 46% that series, but only averaged 21 FGA’s per contest, which is low for Bryant when he has both Pau Gasol and Bynum in the lineup with him, and is an absolute fantasy here without Bynum and with Omer Asik. Kidd will have every chance to work Bryant, and I see Kobe shooting around 41% in the series. The bad news is that Kidd’s offensive efficacy as a scorer is almost entirely limited to his jumper, and that comes and goes. (It goes more than it comes, and it did against the Lakers last year).

Key Matchup: Pau Gasol V David West
David West is a heck of a player, but Gasol is better. He’s a better rebounder, he’s in a whole other league defensively. However, their H2H numbers are actually really close. Still, edge Gasol (wayyy more efficient), but West can score on the Spaniard, make no mistake. Edge Gasol, and a significant edge, but closer than I would’ve believed before I saw the #’s.

The Starters Omer Asik V Marc Gasol & Thabo Sefelosha V Rudy Gay: This match up is fundamentally the same for both sets of players. Sefelosha does his best to make Rudy Gay less effective, while Asik does his best to make Gasol less effective.

In both cases, Sefelosha cannot hope to stop Gay, like Asik cannot hope to stop Gasol, moreso they’re just trying to take the FG% down about 8 points, and force Gasol/Gay to make tough shots in order to ‘get theirs’. I think Asik/Thabo can succeed in that, but this is still two wins for Memphis.

Benches: LA’s bench is a whole lot better, but honestly I really don’t think Memphis goes more than 7, maybe 8, deep. Not if they wanna win. Mike Miller can play minutes as a reserve both for Rudy Gay and Jason Kidd (when CJ Watson stays in and becomes the point), while Von Wafer can take minutes from Watson when Kidd is in. Collison can spot both West and Gasol, and assuming 37 minutes plus for all the starters, I don’t see why they should allow scrubs like Donte Greene or Chris Duhon the time of day. Dante Cunningham might get some burn at the 3/4 against other teams, but the matchups aren’t right for him here.

How I see This Going: This is going to be a slow-paced series with the Grizzlies needing to make tough shots to win, but the Lakers relying on too few weapons to really put them away early. Its going to go 7 games

FIRST UPSET!

I think the Grizzlies take it in 7.

[Roy H.]

MATCHUP #6:

LA Lakers (3, H) V Memphis Grizzlies (6, A)
Farmar V Kidd
Bryant V Miller
Thabo V Gay
Gasol V West
Asik V Gasol
-Bench-
Barbosa V CJ Watson
D Stevenson V M Redd
Maggette V Donte Greene
Taj Gibson V N Collison
Turiaf V Joel Anthony

Key Matchup: Kobe Bryant Vs Jason Kidd
First, I’m assuming Kidd guards Bryant, because if its Miller, or Redd, or Von Wafer, its an absolute bloodbath, and that the Grizzlies are going to allow CJ Watson on the floor more often than not next to Kidd. That said, we’ve already seen this little party play out. Kidd guarded Bryant for a lot of the 2nd round sweep of the Lakers last year. It didn’t go great for Kidd, but it went better than it would’ve against a lot of other guys. Bryant shot 46% that series, but only averaged 21 FGA’s per contest, which is low for Bryant when he has both Pau Gasol and Bynum in the lineup with him, and is an absolute fantasy here without Bynum and with Omer Asik. Kidd will have every chance to work Bryant, and I see Kobe shooting around 41% in the series. The bad news is that Kidd’s offensive efficacy as a scorer is almost entirely limited to his jumper, and that comes and goes. (It goes more than it comes, and it did against the Lakers last year).

Key Matchup: Pau Gasol V David West
David West is a heck of a player, but Gasol is better. He’s a better rebounder, he’s in a whole other league defensively. However, their H2H numbers are actually really close. Still, edge Gasol (wayyy more efficient), but West can score on the Spaniard, make no mistake. Edge Gasol, and a significant edge, but closer than I would’ve believed before I saw the #’s.

The Starters Omer Asik V Marc Gasol & Thabo Sefelosha V Rudy Gay: This match up is fundamentally the same for both sets of players. Sefelosha does his best to make Rudy Gay less effective, while Asik does his best to make Gasol less effective.

In both cases, Sefelosha cannot hope to stop Gay, like Asik cannot hope to stop Gasol, moreso they’re just trying to take the FG% down about 8 points, and force Gasol/Gay to make tough shots in order to ‘get theirs’. I think Asik/Thabo can succeed in that, but this is still two wins for Memphis.

Benches: LA’s bench is a whole lot better, but honestly I really don’t think Memphis goes more than 7, maybe 8, deep. Not if they wanna win. Mike Miller can play minutes as a reserve both for Rudy Gay and Jason Kidd (when CJ Watson stays in and becomes the point), while Von Wafer can take minutes from Watson when Kidd is in. Collison can spot both West and Gasol, and assuming 37 minutes plus for all the starters, I don’t see why they should allow scrubs like Donte Greene or Chris Duhon the time of day. Dante Cunningham might get some burn at the 3/4 against other teams, but the matchups aren’t right for him here.

How I see This Going: This is going to be a slow-paced series with the Grizzlies needing to make tough shots to win, but the Lakers relying on too few weapons to really put them away early. Its going to go 7 games

FIRST UPSET!

I think the Grizzlies take it in 7.

No way.  David West currently isn't the same player he used to be.

[indeedproceed]

You don't think West comes around by playoffs?

Cuz...ya did this summer.

[StartOrien]

Fair point (I wouldn't either). He's average among ALL PF's in the league, but among starters, he's a bit below. He is (or was) among the worst starting 4's in the leauge.

But if you Antawn Jamison on those Suns, they don't do was well. And when you thought 'average power forward', you thought Antawn Jamison. Don't lie.

But this gets us back to square one. If we replaced Amare with Jamison how big of a difference is there? The Suns replaced Amare with Boris Diaw and there wasn't much of a drop off, why wouldn't I think a good team could replace Amare with Jamison and remain competitive?

This is kind of the beauty of these drafts though, isn't it? If you'd approach me a week ago and were to say that Amare and Jamison might have comprable value, I would've hit you - and I haven't punched anyone since a roller hockey fight in middle school. Now, I've at least have to give it some thought.

[Roy H.]

You don't think West comes around by playoffs?

Cuz...ya did this summer.

Are we all held to the same player evaluations we had in the summer?  I didn't predict Lamar Odom would be a candidate for worst rotation player in the NBA, either.  How's your evaluation of Bogut and Stoudamire looking?  That's why they play the games, and after playing the games, David West is still recovering.  I doubt very much that he turns it around in the next six weeks or so.

West is hampered out there.  Jason Kidd has been very bad, and Memphis lacks a legit NBA starter at SG.

I know people are high on Marc Gasol, but in my mind, GF's Grizzlies are a downgrade from the "real" Grizzlies (when healthy), and those Grizzlies are barely a playoff team.  I don't see any realistic way that a team that substitutes Zach Randolph with a hobbled David West, Conley with a downgrade in Kidd, and Tony Allen with Michael Redd, could make the playoffs, let alone knock off the Lakers.

[indeedproceed]

Fair point (I wouldn't either). He's average among ALL PF's in the league, but among starters, he's a bit below. He is (or was) among the worst starting 4's in the leauge.

But if you Antawn Jamison on those Suns, they don't do was well. And when you thought 'average power forward', you thought Antawn Jamison. Don't lie.

But this gets us back to square one. If we replaced Amare with Jamison how big of a difference is there? The Suns replaced Amare with Boris Diaw and there wasn't much of a drop off, why wouldn't I think a good team could replace Amare with Jamison and remain competitive?

This is kind of the beauty of these drafts though, isn't it? If you'd approach me a week ago and were to say that Amare and Jamison might have comprable value, I would've hit you - and I haven't punched anyone since a roller hockey fight in middle school. Now, I've at least have to give it some thought.

Yeah but you should still hit me. You've over-thinking that. Look at that Suns roster. None of those guys ever did anything like that again. Barbosa, Diaw, for everyone except Shawn Marion that was pretty much a career year (maybe except Barbosa, he kinda did same crap different season routine in PHO for a while).

And that's 1 season stacked up against what, 6? 7? Plus amare showing that as long as Melo isn't on his team stinkin it up, he can do the same stuff somewhere else, something only Joe Johnson has been able to accomplish.

[indeedproceed]

I don't see any realistic way that a team that substitutes Zach Randolph with a hobbled David West, Conley with a downgrade in Kidd, and Tony Allen with Michael Redd, could make the playoffs, let alone knock off the Lakers.

*the lakers*, sure, but what about a Lakers team thats starting Omer Asik in place of Bynum?

I think a 7-man rotation of:

Jason Kidd (guards bryant)
CJ Watson (guards Farmar/PG's)
Rudy Gay
David West
Marc Gasol

with a short bench of MIller, Wafer, and Collison could do it in 7 games against a Bynum-less lakers.

[Roy H.]

I don't see any realistic way that a team that substitutes Zach Randolph with a hobbled David West, Conley with a downgrade in Kidd, and Tony Allen with Michael Redd, could make the playoffs, let alone knock off the Lakers.

*the lakers*, sure, but what about a Lakers team thats starting Omer Asik in place of Bynum?

I think a 7-man rotation of:

Jason Kidd (guards bryant)
CJ Watson (guards Farmar/PG's)
Rudy Gay
David West
Marc Gasol

with a short bench of MIller, Wafer, and Collison could do it in 7 games against a Bynum-less lakers.

I don't buy it.  Players are more than a sum of their stats.  The Grizzlies would have to match up with two of the top-15 players in the NBA, and I don't think they'd be up for it.

I mean, look at the "real" Lakers in 2008.  Kobe + Gasol, sure.  Then we've got Lamar Odom, Vlad Radmonovic, Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, and Ronny Turiaf.

Is that a great team on paper?  After the top-two, it's pretty mediocre.  However, the top two are so good and cause so many matchup problems that all you really need are decent contributions from role players.

[indeedproceed]

I don't see any realistic way that a team that substitutes Zach Randolph with a hobbled David West, Conley with a downgrade in Kidd, and Tony Allen with Michael Redd, could make the playoffs, let alone knock off the Lakers.

*the lakers*, sure, but what about a Lakers team thats starting Omer Asik in place of Bynum?

I think a 7-man rotation of:

Jason Kidd (guards bryant)
CJ Watson (guards Farmar/PG's)
Rudy Gay
David West
Marc Gasol

with a short bench of MIller, Wafer, and Collison could do it in 7 games against a Bynum-less lakers.

I don't buy it.  Players are more than a sum of their stats.  The Grizzlies would have to match up with two of the top-15 players in the NBA, and I don't think they'd be up for it.

I mean, look at the "real" Lakers in 2008.  Kobe + Gasol, sure.  Then we've got Lamar Odom, Vlad Radmonovic, Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, and Ronny Turiaf.

Is that a great team on paper?  After the top-two, it's pretty mediocre.  However, the top two are so good and cause so many matchup problems that all you really need are decent contributions from role players.

Yeah but that was in 2008. He's 33 now, and Kobe Bryant got swept last year homie. Gasol's got head troubles cuz the front office doesn't like him. They rely on Bynum more than they ever did any other player outside Gasol/Bryant now, and Kobe's still only shooting 43% on 23 attempts, and that # of shots should go up, not down with these Lakers.

[Roy H.]

I don't see any realistic way that a team that substitutes Zach Randolph with a hobbled David West, Conley with a downgrade in Kidd, and Tony Allen with Michael Redd, could make the playoffs, let alone knock off the Lakers.

*the lakers*, sure, but what about a Lakers team thats starting Omer Asik in place of Bynum?

I think a 7-man rotation of:

Jason Kidd (guards bryant)
CJ Watson (guards Farmar/PG's)
Rudy Gay
David West
Marc Gasol

with a short bench of MIller, Wafer, and Collison could do it in 7 games against a Bynum-less lakers.

I don't buy it.  Players are more than a sum of their stats.  The Grizzlies would have to match up with two of the top-15 players in the NBA, and I don't think they'd be up for it.

I mean, look at the "real" Lakers in 2008.  Kobe + Gasol, sure.  Then we've got Lamar Odom, Vlad Radmonovic, Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, and Ronny Turiaf.

Is that a great team on paper?  After the top-two, it's pretty mediocre.  However, the top two are so good and cause so many matchup problems that all you really need are decent contributions from role players.

Yeah but that was in 2008. He's 33 now, and Kobe Bryant got swept last year homie. Gasol's got head troubles cuz the front office doesn't like him. They rely on Bynum more than they ever did any other player outside Gasol/Bryant now, and Kobe's still only shooting 43% on 23 attempts, and that # of shots should go up, not down with these Lakers.

Well, you won't hear me knocking Bynum, who has had an amazing year.  However, I do think you underrate Gasol and Kobe.  That's a healthy thing to do on a Celtics fan site, but I do think both guys are better than the sum of their stats, 2011 second round sweep to the eventual champions aside.

(As for Gasol's "head troubles", I'm not sure how much you can rely on that.  Don't those go away since Who has a different front office and a different team structure?)

Kobe and Pau are head and shoulders above any other two players in this series, and yes, that includes Marc Gasol.  Superstars usually win, and the Lakers come out ahead there 2-0.

[StartOrien]

Little busy right now so I can only kind of elaborate, this thing honestly comes down to the bench (and I rarely think it does) and the Lakers win in 7. Honestly, if the Grizz had any semblance of defense at the 2 I think they would've taken it.

Difference the Gasol brothers have over their counterpart gives a slight edge to Marc, who I have more faith in to bring consistency and toughness.

I'm assuming we'll see Gay and Bryant match up against each other pretty frequently (moreso Gay on Bryant out of neccessity), I'd give a slight edge points wise to Bryant, but I think his inefficiency makes it closer than it might seem in the surface. Also, in the issue of full discretion, I love Rudy Gay and also think that Kobe hurts the Lakers about as much as helps.

Similarly, though at a lesser level of importance, I see Miller vs. Thefolosha playing relatively similarly. Miller scoring more points, but a lot less efficiently.

Kidd's an obvious upgrade over Farmar, though I'm not sure how much is asked out of Farmar.

[indeedproceed]

(As for Gasol's "head troubles", I'm not sure how much you can rely on that.  Don't those go away since Who has a different front office and a different team structure?)

He had girlfriend troubles last year, I think he'd find something to cry his spanish tears about.

(USA! USA! USA!)

[GreenFaith1819]

Wow - great write-up, IP..and good analysis by Roy and Start.

I haven't had the time to crunch stats, unfortunately, but at a few glances I thought that perhaps my Pick Two MEM team could stretch LA to 7, but LA would take the series in this format.

There were two players I coveted that I think could've swung things in my favor in such a series - and Who has one of them (Thabo). I think Evantime has the other (Tony Allen).

In my head, I could only think of perhaps two players that could've slowed Kobe down a bit in such a series - and that would've been Kidd or Dante Cunningham. Kidd would've been stretched with such an assignment, and Dante - even though younger, would be too inexperienced to significantly make a difference.

My frontcourt vs LA's? I think, on paper, we matched up well - but it would've been Gasol vs Gasol, in my book. David West would've benefited from an unselfish Marc in such a series, but I'm not sure that he would've been able to make THAT much of a difference.

Off the top of my head:

Marc vs Pau = draw?

DWest vs Asik? I think this matchup would be the key, for me. I would hope that David would attempt to draw Asik out of the paint and perhaps punish him with jumpers. David would be worn out from attempting to post Asik up - being that he outweighs David and is an excellent defender.

Frontcourt Bench? Taj vs Joel Anthony? Draw? Nick Collison would help our team in that he has experience and has guarded Dirk well in past playoffs. I am guessing that in some cases I would place him on Pau.

I could see Who placing Thabo on Rudy, and making Rudy really work for his points. Thabo is an excellent SG-SF Defender.

Again - appreciate the writeup. IP, Roy and Start. From first glance, though - without crunching any stats, yet - I think Who's Lakers beat my Grizz in 7 games. Kobe would need to put out MAX effort - and I'm sure he'd do just that.