Match-UP # 5:
Thunder (2, H) V Clippers (7, A)
Mike Conley Jr V Chris Paul
Andre Iguodala V Anthony Morrow
Kevin Durant V Danny Green
Luis Scola V Blake Griffin
Chris Kaman V Zaza Pachulia
-Bench-
Kirk Hinrich V DJ Augustine/Toney (Tony, Tone) Douglas
Delfino V Bill Walker, Wayne Ellington
Tobias Harris V Jerebko
Hansbrough/Maxiell V Jamison
Kanter V Okur
Key Matchup: Mike Conley Jr V Chris Paul
It’s a win for Chris Paul, but not the overwhelming victory one may think. While Mike Conley Jr. is still struggling to establish himself even among the ‘respected starters’ in the NBA, let alone elite PG’s, he’s of a size with CP3, he’s stronger, and he’s more athletic. The two have faced off quite often in their careers, and while the resurgence last season for the Grizzlies established them as a (when healthy) elite defensive team, Mike Conley has been pretty solid defensively for around 2-3 years now. And, against Chris Paul, he seems to do well. Not spectacular, but 16 pts, 11 assists, and 44% shooting (Paul is a career 48% shooter), while Conley chips in 10 pts of his own.
Key Matchup: Andre Iguodala V Anthony Morrow
This one is only important because of how much of a landslide the Thunder win it by. Anthony Morrow, that man can shoot. He can shoot the lights out, and hide til its bright out…if you let him. Iggy will not let him. Anthony Morrow is in for a long, painful series in which the only open shots he’ll have is when Iggy sags off to play all-NBA caliber help defense on the wing. Iggy’s gonna deprive Morrow of open buckets on offense, and he’s gonna work him over on defense. Against other teams, Iggy would take their most potent perimeter threat, against these guys, he’s got a bit of a loss, cuz he’s not going to face up CP3, and he’s not going to care about Danny Green. I guess he could cover Danny Green, but so could Durant. Which brings us to…
Key Matchup: Kevin Durant V Danny Green
Now don’t get me wrong; I think Danny Green is a player. I think he’s useful, I think he’s a great first wing off the bench, and I think he fits in just about any team out there pretty well. But, one of Green’s biggest attributes is his size against 2’s (where he has played most of his minutes). No matter whether he plays Durant or Iggy, he’s outclassed size-wise, and athletically. Kevin Durant, on the other hand, is the best scorer in basketball, and one of its more underrated defenders. Danny Green is about to get worked over.
Key Matchup: Blake Griffin V Luis Scola
Blake Griffin will score on Scola, and if history is any indicator, it will be at a rate just under 50%. Scola will score on Blake, and if history is any indicator, its will be at a rate just under 50%. The biggest advantage is that Blake will rebound far, far better than Scola will. Neither one is a particularly gifted passer, neither one is a defensive anchor, and neither one will expose the other one to foul issues. Its not a wash; Griffin will score better, and he’ll get to the line more, and since he’s the second scoring option, he’ll probably be hovering somewhere around 23-25PPG, while Scola (the 3rd, or 4th scoring option) will be hovering around 13ppg, Blake Griffin is also not going to win this series for LA on his own merits here. He doesn’t stop Scola, and Scola doesn’t stop him.
Other Blake Griffin Key Matchup: Blake Griffin V the Thunder Bench (Hansbrough/Maxiell)
Blake Griffin is gonna play 40 minutes per game. Count on it. Scola won’t be doing that, especially with the quality on the Thunder’s bench. Well, I say quality, because against just about any other team, that’s what they are; they’re quality depth. But neither of these guys can hold Griffin’s jock if they have to cover him. You’re talking 60% shooting, with a yuge rebound differential.
Other Matchups: Bench, Chris Kaman and Zaza
Chris Kaman has historically been a better player than Zaza. This season, their stats are virtually identical, and I’m just going to ignore them for the most part. They’ll sort themselves out. The Thunder hold a huge advantage in bench depth, especially at the point and the swing positions. Jerebko (and I’m a fan) isn’t a real SF, at least not for more than 5-10 minutes a night. Danny Green is gonna need a lot more than 5-10 minutes a night of rest, especially when he’s fouling Durant just to get him to stop making it rain. Delfino (SG/SF) and Hinrich (PG/SG) are both excellent depth, and Kanter backing up Kaman (and likely Scola, I’m sure ol Luis sees some time at the 5) is huge boon over Okur. I’m sure that Antawn Jamison will see the floor, but it won’t be for enough time for me to feel one way or another about him.
How I See It Goin Down: Iggy/Durant are just too much for the Clippers, and the talent differential at the 2/3 is just too big to overcome with the ‘wins’ the Clips have at the PG/PF (where the differential is much smaller, by comparision).
Thunder in 6.