IP Ranks The Pick-Two Teams By Divison (All Divisions Are Up)

[indeedproceed]

Orlando Magic

PG - Jrue Holiday, Mo Williams, Beno Udrih
SG - Joe Johnson, Ronnie Brewer, OJ Mayo
SF - Shawn Marion, Tracy McGrady
PF - Amare Stoudemire, Gustavo Ayon
C  - Kurt Thomas, Nikola Vucevic, Cole Aldrich

Positive Thoughts: Top to bottom, probably the most talented team in the league. TONS of versatility. Title contender.

Negative Thoughts: Lots of redundancy on the roster, could’ve done with some talent consolidation. Shawn Marion…man I don’t know what to make of that guy. Resurrected his career last season with the Mavs, but it was a pretty unique situation. In the same way that STAT should play better outside his current situation, its awfully likely that Marion will regress a bit. Still due to the versatility on the roster, its not such a huge stepback.

Immediate Success: 3rd or 4th best team in the East, and outside title contender.

Long-Term Success: Not great. Amar’e’s knees are the riskiest gamble outside of Bynum’s or Oden’s. The money tied up in Amar’e and Joe Johnson functionally handicaps any major moves in the event of a rebuild, Marion is on his way out, and the most promising prospect, Jrue Holiday, has taken a bit of a step back (or, more likely, sideways). If they don’t get a ring in 1 or 2 years, its pretty likely that they never will with the current core.

Pick-Two Success: The current Magic are not a contender. These Magic are. Success.

I agree with pretty much all of this. I do have a lot of redundancy on my roster, although guys like Johnson, Brewer and Mayo all do very different thing. If I had done the Marion trade, say, a few days ago, I would've pushed hard for a talent upgrade and condensed a little bit. After that deal, the game was basically over.

I wasn't aware that contracts are a big deal in this game, and thought we were pretty much ignoring them. In that case, yeah my team is pretty screwed tied to an aging Johnson and Amar'e. Otherwise, though, I'm pretty happy with some of the young pieces still there, like Jrue, Brewer, Mayo, Ayon and Vucevic. Not the greatest young talent haul in the world, but if Ayon and Vucevic develop on a normal path from averaging 6-7 and 5 in 17 minutes a game as a rookie, then it's at least a good starting point. If contracts weren't universally hindering in this game, I'd go at the championship for a couple years and then move forward with those 5 guys, looking for another piece or two to get me back into the playoffs/contention. Otherwise, I'd try to sell off a 33-34-year-old Johnson and Amar'e for contracts or picks, and I think I'd have some buyers from a contender.

I think that's legitimate, depends on how Johnson ages. Ayon, Holiday I see as legitimate blocks. Vucevic, Mayo are maybies (on par with like a Landry Fields, or Dante Cunningham or Jonas Jerebko), Ronnie Brewer gets a 'meh' from me. Every team he's been on they've tried to upgrade him.

[StartOrien]

Sorry to nitpick cuz I know you did a ton of work, IP. But you broke off your sentence about Derrick Williams, could you expound?

Positive Thoughts: I think that a team centered around Jennings/Paul George/Wilson Chandler/Derrick Williams/Tyson Chandler is a team that should be going places, dependent on Paul George’s advancement. Barea, Pietrus, Cook, Maxiell, and Brown are all quality proven depth. Biyombo could be the game-changer here, becoming either a legit 5 or a legit 4, or both. If Derrick Williams. High-level defenders at 1,2,3, and 5, with Biyombo’s development being the only thing stopping them from being the #1 defensive team in the league.

[nickagneta]

Orlando Magic

PG - Jrue Holiday, Mo Williams, Beno Udrih
SG - Joe Johnson, Ronnie Brewer, OJ Mayo
SF - Shawn Marion, Tracy McGrady
PF - Amare Stoudemire, Gustavo Ayon
C  - Kurt Thomas, Nikola Vucevic, Cole Aldrich

Positive Thoughts: Top to bottom, probably the most talented team in the league. TONS of versatility. Title contender.

Negative Thoughts: Lots of redundancy on the roster, could’ve done with some talent consolidation. Shawn Marion…man I don’t know what to make of that guy. Resurrected his career last season with the Mavs, but it was a pretty unique situation. In the same way that STAT should play better outside his current situation, its awfully likely that Marion will regress a bit. Still due to the versatility on the roster, its not such a huge stepback.

Immediate Success: 3rd or 4th best team in the East, and outside title contender.

Long-Term Success: Not great. Amar’e’s knees are the riskiest gamble outside of Bynum’s or Oden’s. The money tied up in Amar’e and Joe Johnson functionally handicaps any major moves in the event of a rebuild, Marion is on his way out, and the most promising prospect, Jrue Holiday, has taken a bit of a step back (or, more likely, sideways). If they don’t get a ring in 1 or 2 years, its pretty likely that they never will with the current core.

Pick-Two Success: The current Magic are not a contender. These Magic are. Success.

I agree with pretty much all of this. I do have a lot of redundancy on my roster, although guys like Johnson, Brewer and Mayo all do very different thing. If I had done the Marion trade, say, a few days ago, I would've pushed hard for a talent upgrade and condensed a little bit. After that deal, the game was basically over.

I wasn't aware that contracts are a big deal in this game, and thought we were pretty much ignoring them. In that case, yeah my team is pretty screwed tied to an aging Johnson and Amar'e. Otherwise, though, I'm pretty happy with some of the young pieces still there, like Jrue, Brewer, Mayo, Ayon and Vucevic. Not the greatest young talent haul in the world, but if Ayon and Vucevic develop on a normal path from averaging 6-7 and 5 in 17 minutes a game as a rookie, then it's at least a good starting point. If contracts weren't universally hindering in this game, I'd go at the championship for a couple years and then move forward with those 5 guys, looking for another piece or two to get me back into the playoffs/contention. Otherwise, I'd try to sell off a 33-34-year-old Johnson and Amar'e for contracts or picks, and I think I'd have some buyers from a contender.

You know, doesn't matter when you did the move, the fact is you did it. Anderson was just another scorer that can't play defense on a team full of scorers. You needed to get JJ back to the 2 guard slot and have a defensive presence at the three. You accomplished that and made your team more balanced and better equipped to compete. I thought the trade brilliant and that it catapulted the team from 3-5 seed territory to 1-3 territory.

TP. Well done.

[indeedproceed]

Sorry to nitpick cuz I know you did a ton of work, IP. But you broke off your sentence about Derrick Williams, could you expound?

Positive Thoughts: I think that a team centered around Jennings/Paul George/Wilson Chandler/Derrick Williams/Tyson Chandler is a team that should be going places, dependent on Paul George’s advancement. Barea, Pietrus, Cook, Maxiell, and Brown are all quality proven depth. Biyombo could be the game-changer here, becoming either a legit 5 or a legit 4, or both. If Derrick Williams. High-level defenders at 1,2,3, and 5, with Biyombo’s development being the only thing stopping them from being the #1 defensive team in the league.

There is nothing to expound upon. It is a timeless question-period.

If, Derrick Williams.


(As in 'If Derrick Williams becomes the power 3/stretch 4 we all think he could be, he'd be a perfect super-sub off the bench to completely change the tempo of the game as a super-scorer.)

See my Melo/Millsap hybrid comment. That's kinda what i see Williams as being able to become.

[nickagneta]

CENTRAL DIVISION

Cleveland Cavaliers

PG - Kyrie Irving, Chauncey Billups, Earl Watson
SG - Landry Fields, George Hill, Sam Young
SF - Luol Deng, Jeff Green
PF - Kris Humphries, Brandon Bass, Matt Bonner
C  - Andrew Bynum, Nenad Krstic

Positive Thoughts: Irving, Deng, and Bynum all seem to be long-term cornerstones with potential for any one of (or even scarier) or all three of them to continue to improve into a legitimate squad of superstars. The depth provided by Hill, Young, Green, and Bass long-term has the makings of one of if not the best future second units going forward. There is a good symmetry here (which, if you happen to read all of these is like…a super-serious thing for me) with the potential for deadly scoring (Irving, Deng, Bynum are all potentially 20 ppg scorers), efficient ball-movement (Irving, Fields, Deng are all proficient (Irving) to elite (Fields, Deng) passers for their respective positions), rebounding (Bynum, Humphries, Deng, Fields are all among the best statistically at their positions for acquiring boards), and depth.

Negative Thoughts: Fields and Humphries are both below-average starters for their positions. And, to build further upon that, I worry that Fields is more of a system player (in the Knicks offense he’s asked to little and less aside from moving the ball on the Amar’e or Anthony, and in the defense he gets lauded as one of the few effective guys for the Knicks, but they’re the D’Antoni Knicks. Nobody plays good defense aside from Tyson Chandler, as we found out when Fields tried to guard Ray Allen last spring). While Hill, Young, Bass, Bonner, and Krstic are all important pieces going forward, there is no guarantee that Billups will be back next season, or that he will be anywhere near as effective as he was last year or the year before. He was playing well this past season, but age takes its toll, and he didn’t seem encouraged to be playing for the Clippers prior to them acquiring Chris Paul, which leads me to believe that he’s not going to be encouraged to be playing for the Cavaliers, especially in a reserve situation. Krstic may want to come back, but who knows if he will, and I’ll believe that Jeff Green will be okay once he actually plays some basketball. On top of that two starters (Deng, Bynum) have both missed significant time in the last few years, with Bynum being a legitimate candidate for ‘most likely to get hurt right when you need him most’, right next to Andrew Bogut and Dwyane Wade. On paper the team looks elite, but there are a lot of things that need to go right for them that could easily go very wrong.

Immediate success: Take the division, 3-4 seed, dependant on regular season record. Likely 1st or second round exit.

Long-term success: Possible contender as soon as next season, lock-contender within 3 yrs. Bynum biggest question mark.

Pick-2 Success: I have a hard time imagining how they could’ve done better with the Cavs. They started out without a superstar, and not only assembled a quality young team around quality young talent, they managed to assemble a quality team period, and as close to a surefire future contender as you can get when you’re relying on Andrew Bynum as a future cornerstone.


Central Division, This Year:
Cavs
Bulls
Pacers
Pistons

Central Division, Going Forward:
Cavs
Pistons
Pacers
Bulls

Pick-Two Success:
Cavs (took the easy route)
Pistons
Pacers
Bulls

Wow.  Tremendous effort doing this analysis.  I will say that regarding the Cavs, I think you pretty much nailed it.  Even your question marks are pretty fair.  I've got some small quibbles, and I think I like Humphries and Fields better than you do, but overall this is a pretty great writeup.

Got to agree with Roy, I think this critique is spot on.

I do want to say I am real happy with the way the team is being received in its currently able to compete form. I think we wanted to make a monster contender for a year or three down the line. Then players we were thinking would be great fits, allowing us to compete now and still be able to grow with the team in the future, kept falling to us, we knew we stood at shot at competing right away.

I want to state out loud what an absolute pleasure it was having Roy as my co-GM. We agreed on a lot, bounced ideas off, both sought out great trades and worked fabulously. He gave in to my call on Cleveland even though he didn't really want and I thank him for that.

I know Edgar can attest to this, if you ever get a chance to co-GM with Roy, take it. You will learn a lot about how to deal and about the game of basketball.

It was my honor sir.

Now maybe we should do this again next summer and kick SO and K Cat's butts.

[nickagneta]

Sorry to nitpick cuz I know you did a ton of work, IP. But you broke off your sentence about Derrick Williams, could you expound?

Positive Thoughts: I think that a team centered around Jennings/Paul George/Wilson Chandler/Derrick Williams/Tyson Chandler is a team that should be going places, dependent on Paul George’s advancement. Barea, Pietrus, Cook, Maxiell, and Brown are all quality proven depth. Biyombo could be the game-changer here, becoming either a legit 5 or a legit 4, or both. If Derrick Williams. High-level defenders at 1,2,3, and 5, with Biyombo’s development being the only thing stopping them from being the #1 defensive team in the league.

There is nothing to expound upon. It is a timeless question-period.

If, Derrick Williams.


(As in 'If Derrick Williams becomes the power 3/stretch 4 we all think he could be, he'd be a perfect super-sub off the bench to completely change the tempo of the game as a super-scorer.)

See my Melo/Millsap hybrid comment. That's kinda what i see Williams as being able to become.

That was very Nietzsche of you IP....I understood right from the start.

[Merovech]

You know, doesn't matter when you did the move, the fact is you did it. Anderson was just another scorer that can't play defense on a team full of scorers. .

I contend that Anderson is only slightly worse that average on defense, with plenty of time to fix that, although I totally agree with the rest.

[StartOrien]

Ah, thanks for the clarification.

NOW FOR MY RETORT!

I have higher expectations for Paul George and Wilson Chandler (and to a lesser degree Derrick Williams) than most. So, knowing this, it's kind of a waste to debate back and forth.

I honestly think that Paul George is heading for super-duper stardom; As in, I think two years from now he's a top 10 player in the league. Kind of see him as a smarter T-Mac. And I look at Wilson Chandler as someone who could soon become a player with Iguodala like value(no where near the passer, lesser of a finisher, but a much better shooter).

I would say I disagree with your evaluation that they'd need to fulfill their potential for this team to be a 3 or 4 seed. I say with the defense and speed on this team they could become this with even a limited amount of progression.

[indeedproceed]

Ah, thanks for the clarification.

NOW FOR MY RETORT!

I have higher expectations for Paul George and Wilson Chandler (and to a lesser degree Derrick Williams) than most. So, knowing this, it's kind of a waste to debate back and forth.

I honestly think that Paul George is heading for super-duper stardom; As in, I think two years from now he's a top 10 player in the league. Kind of see him as a smarter T-Mac. And I look at Wilson Chandler as someone who could soon become a player with Iguodala like value(no where near the passer, lesser of a finisher, but a much better shooter).

I would say I disagree with your evaluation that they'd need to fulfill their potential for this team to be a 3 or 4 seed. I say with the defense and speed on this team they could become this with even a limited amount of progression.

Ball movement still a huge concern, even with the progression.

That's the problem with Jennings, you need an elite passer (for the position) at the 2 or 3.

[StartOrien]

Ah, thanks for the clarification.

NOW FOR MY RETORT!

I have higher expectations for Paul George and Wilson Chandler (and to a lesser degree Derrick Williams) than most. So, knowing this, it's kind of a waste to debate back and forth.

I honestly think that Paul George is heading for super-duper stardom; As in, I think two years from now he's a top 10 player in the league. Kind of see him as a smarter T-Mac. And I look at Wilson Chandler as someone who could soon become a player with Iguodala like value(no where near the passer, lesser of a finisher, but a much better shooter).

I would say I disagree with your evaluation that they'd need to fulfill their potential for this team to be a 3 or 4 seed. I say with the defense and speed on this team they could become this with even a limited amount of progression.

Ball movement still a huge concern, even with the progression.

That's the problem with Jennings, you need an elite passer (for the position) at the 2 or 3.

While I think George is also a pretty good passer, I'd agree with you there. I'd say my biggest regret is becoming a little too complacent, or falling a little too in love with the idea of having that length & speed on the wings and not looking to get someone whose better moving the ball, obviously the ideal candidate being James Harden. But even off the bench, I think a Rudy Fernandez could've helped out a lot.

EDIT: My original line of thinking, ironically enough, was that the offense would work like the Knicks offense. Heavy pick and roll with Jennings & Chandler, with better shooters/slashers surrounding. 

[indeedproceed]

Ah, thanks for the clarification.

NOW FOR MY RETORT!

I have higher expectations for Paul George and Wilson Chandler (and to a lesser degree Derrick Williams) than most. So, knowing this, it's kind of a waste to debate back and forth.

I honestly think that Paul George is heading for super-duper stardom; As in, I think two years from now he's a top 10 player in the league. Kind of see him as a smarter T-Mac. And I look at Wilson Chandler as someone who could soon become a player with Iguodala like value(no where near the passer, lesser of a finisher, but a much better shooter).

I would say I disagree with your evaluation that they'd need to fulfill their potential for this team to be a 3 or 4 seed. I say with the defense and speed on this team they could become this with even a limited amount of progression.

Ball movement still a huge concern, even with the progression.

That's the problem with Jennings, you need an elite passer (for the position) at the 2 or 3.

While I think George is also a pretty good passer, I'd agree with you there. I'd say my biggest regret is becoming a little too complacent, or falling a little too in love with the idea of having that length & speed on the wings and not looking to get someone whose better moving the ball, obviously the ideal candidate being James Harden. But even off the bench, I think a Rudy Fernandez could've helped out a lot.

Tay Prince, Iggy, Grant Hill, Delfino, lots of guys could've filled that role.

Maybe should've used Wilson Chandler + pieces for a push at Iggy.

[Lucky17]

Ah, thanks for the clarification.

NOW FOR MY RETORT!

I have higher expectations for Paul George and Wilson Chandler (and to a lesser degree Derrick Williams) than most. So, knowing this, it's kind of a waste to debate back and forth.

I honestly think that Paul George is heading for super-duper stardom; As in, I think two years from now he's a top 10 player in the league. Kind of see him as a smarter T-Mac. And I look at Wilson Chandler as someone who could soon become a player with Iguodala like value(no where near the passer, lesser of a finisher, but a much better shooter).

I would say I disagree with your evaluation that they'd need to fulfill their potential for this team to be a 3 or 4 seed. I say with the defense and speed on this team they could become this with even a limited amount of progression.

Ball movement still a huge concern, even with the progression.

That's the problem with Jennings, you need an elite passer (for the position) at the 2 or 3.

While I think George is also a pretty good passer, I'd agree with you there. I'd say my biggest regret is becoming a little too complacent, or falling a little too in love with the idea of having that length & speed on the wings and not looking to get someone whose better moving the ball, obviously the ideal candidate being James Harden. But even off the bench, I think a Rudy Fernandez could've helped out a lot.

Tay Prince, Iggy, Grant Hill, Delfino, lots of guys could've filled that role.

Maybe should've used Wilson Chandler + pieces for a push at Iggy.

I'd have probably shot that down.

No disrespect to Chandler, but I fell in love with the thought of an Iggy-Durant combo when Yoki made his pitch to me for Westbrook.

Tyson Chandler might have made me blink, though.

[Who]

I don't think ball movement will be a problem for Indiana. Not with the offensive versatility and floor spacing that they have with Paul George, Wilson Chandler and Derrick Williams.

Non-issue for me.

[StartOrien]

I don't think ball movement will be a problem for Indiana. Not with the offensive versatility and floor spacing that they have with Paul George, Wilson Chandler and Derrick Williams.

Non-issue for me.

That's a good point. Jennings' current Bucks roster scores about 95 points per game, 15th in the league. I see no reason to think this Pacers pick two team wouldn't be better offensively.

[StartOrien]

I DEMAND A RECOUNT