The only way he has success is to hit outside shots that will force the defense to play on him and give him his openings to drive. After watching the NY game films they won't have any problem stopping his drives. He won't get the 5 or so easy layups the Knicks gave away.
I completely agree that if he hits those jumpers, the Heat will have to play more defense on him. Last year they insulted him the way they lay back and dared him to shoot and that took away his attacking game. I expect he will be ready to hoist a few and prove a point.
I disagree that they will be able to stop his drives with no problem. The Knicks appear much better at interior defense this season than the Heat IMHO. The Mavs lost because they were jumpshooters who couldnt stop the attacking Heat the paint.
The Mavs did not attack the Heat inside like Rondo will and if his jumper is falling they will not be able to sag off him. That will likely require DWade or Chalmers stay on him and that not help with interior double teams on KG/JO.
Lebron on the other hand will not be restrained by the danger of Sasha or Marquis explosive scoring. He will be the one providing help on interior defense.