2011 CB Draft Eastern Playoffs: 1st Round

[Roy H.]

Durant *is* good enough to win a series by himself but how many *has* he won by himself?

Durant was extremely good in the playoffs last season.  41 points to close out game 5 against Denver, 39 to shut down Memphis in Game 7.  He's won plenty of games with little help from teammates.  Anecdotally, it's when Durant's teammates (i.e., Westbrook) try to do too much that the Thunder struggled, as it forced Durant out of the offense. 

Rip Hamilton *was* good but can someone articulate (not just say it's so) why they think he has an advantage over the younger, still developing Nick Young despite them having nearly identical seasons last year (right down to them both playing on bad teams).

I don't see Nick Young as a key contributor on a winner.  I just don't.  He seems to be a me-first, no-BBIQ player.  Hamilton, on the other hand, is a former champion and has played in multiple Finals.  As your team sags off him to help on Durant, he's going to get a lot of open looks.

How is the supposed advantage at the 2 and 4 (what a 10 point advantage?) that much bigger than NY's advantage at the Center position where NJ has 2 of the least offensively-skilled Centers going up against one of the transcendent talents of the last 25 years. Even at 60% of what he used to be, Duncan >>> Perk + Joel Anthony.

I don't look at advantages in terms of net points.  Rather, it's about creating mismatches, causing foul trouble, and forcing adjustments.  Scola is going to be too physical for Gibson / Blair to contain over long stretches.  He's going to win the battle on the boards, and in the paint.  Hamilton is going to require his defender to play close, opening up more room for Durant.  As for Duncan, I love the guy, but in the playoffs he couldn't manage more than 16 points.  He only scored 20+ in 11 games all season.  To me, that's not the type of guy you can rely on to carry your team to victory as a focal point.

[Who]

Rip Hamilton *was* good but can someone articulate (not just say it's so) why they think he has an advantage over the younger, still developing Nick Young despite them having nearly identical seasons last year (right down to them both playing on bad teams).

Offensively, I think the two players are quite similar but I'd give Rip a slight nod here.

Like I said, I think they are quite similar but there are a few differences. Nick Young has superior athleticism and more shooting range offensively whereas I think Rip is the superior decision maker and vastly superior passer. By decision making, I mean = shot-selection, passing, what type of shot to look for and what do vs different defenses. A less erratic, more dependable, scorer.

Defensively, I rate Rip as a superior man-to-man defender and a much better team defender. Nick Young is a better individual defender than given credit for on this site but he still gets lost too much on team defense. Not enough experience playing on a quality defensive team. Unlike Rip. 

On the boards, both players are fairly pathetic. Equally pathetic. 

Anyway, that is why I consider Rip the better player.

[Who]

I think Duncan has a nice advantage on Perk but it'll be through his team offense rather than his own shot-creation abilities in the low post. I thought Perk did a nice job on Timmy in the past and should be able to be even more effective now that Timmy is aging.

However, Duncan is a highly skilled and intelligent offensive player who does a very good job of facilitating his team's offense with his high post passing, jump shooting, shot selection and screening. Perk, on the other hand, is often an offensive liability.

[Gainesville Celtic]

Rip Hamilton *was* good but can someone articulate (not just say it's so) why they think he has an advantage over the younger, still developing Nick Young despite them having nearly identical seasons last year (right down to them both playing on bad teams).

Offensively, I think the two players are quite similar but I'd give Rip a slight nod here.

Like I said, I think they are quite similar but there are a few differences. Nick Young has superior athleticism and more shooting range offensively whereas I think Rip is the superior decision maker and vastly superior passer. By decision making, I mean = shot-selection, passing, what type of shot to look for and what do vs different defenses. A less erratic, more dependable, scorer.

Defensively, I rate Rip as a superior man-to-man defender and a much better team defender. Nick Young is a better individual defender than given credit for on this site but he still gets lost too much on team defense. Not enough experience playing on a quality defensive team. Unlike Rip. 

On the boards, both players are fairly pathetic. Equally pathetic. 

Anyway, that is why I consider Rip the better player.

This is nearly exactly how i view the 2 --- yet to listen to other it's like we're talking a Deron Williams' sized advantage over Mike Conley  

[Fafnir]

I think Duncan has a nice advantage on Perk but it'll be through his team offense rather than his own shot-creation abilities in the low post. I thought Perk did a nice job on Timmy in the past and should be able to be even more effective now that Timmy is aging.

However, Duncan is a highly skilled and intelligent offensive player who does a very good job of facilitating his team's offense with his high post passing, jump shooting, shot selection and screening. Perk, on the other hand, is often an offensive liability.

Yeah Duncan wants no part of Perkins in the post at his age. He hasn't for several years, though he'll face him up some.

[nickagneta]

Deron Williams + Loul Deng + Tim Duncan makes NY the winner here.

Durant might be the best player in this series, but Deng guards Durant as well as anyone ad the NJ supporting cast is far inferior to the OKC supporting cast. (Westbrook >> Conley; Harden > Hamilton; Scola > Ibaka; Perk = Perk).

The Deron Williams >> Conley advantage is bigger than I've seen mentioned here (and I really like Conley, don't get me wrong) but Williams is a beast at PG -- and we've got the outside shooting to negate any foolish zone defenses or double teams.


Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Tim Duncan and Tom Thibodeau are champions who will show the rest of our team what it takes to win (an underated component IMO of this fantasy based game).

How is ibaka better than Scola, How is Harden better than Rip?

I'll give you Conly being << than westbook but i think my team gives durant a little more spacing by surronding him with shooters and having perkins set screens. I also think my bench is better than the real okalahoma city bench. IF Deng is so good howcome he couldnt stop or slow down lebron or dwade?

Uh... I didn't say Ibaka is better than Scola. Scola is better but no by THAT much: Scola is the better offensive player, Ibaka the better reboundr & defender. And let's be honest, Scola is a good starting PF, but in the 2 years w/o Yao Scoala's teams have missed the playoffs.

Harden is better than Hamilton b/c he is  . Unlike Hamilton Harden can (a) create his own offense (and is very good at doing that) and (b) can defend his position at a high rate.

I suspect others agree with me as Harden was taken here at pick 3.13, while Hamilton went 5.15 -- 50 spots later. This isn't a complete measure of talent, but that's a pretty big gap.

BOOOOOO!!!!

I hate the my player was picked first so he is better argument.

BOOOOO!!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74GdZs2Ilk4

BOOOOOOOOOOO! to NOT READING!!!


Wow Nick... why don't you read what i wrote:

Harden is better than Hamilton b/c he is  . Unlike Hamilton Harden can (a) create his own offense (and is very good at doing that) and (b) can defend his position at a high rate.

I suspect others agree with me as Harden was taken here at pick 3.13, while Hamilton went 5.15 -- 50 spots later. This isn't a complete measure of talent, but that's a pretty big gap.

I gave 2 reasons why Harden was better than Hamilton -- without mentionig that he shot better than Hamiton, rebouned better than Hamilton, turned the ball over less, and had 3x the number of win shares/48 min -- and then said that others likely agree with me since Harden went 50 spots higher than Hamilton.

I DIDN'T say Harden is better BECAUSE he went 50 spots higher. There *is* a difference.

Wow GC!!! I thought it was clear it was a joke!!!

And I did read the whole thing and somewhat agree with you. I just don't like the "others agree with me because of where they were drafted" reasoning. Its a cop out that should never be used IMHO.

Maybe one player was drafted way too high(Harden probably was drafted too high). Maybe another was drafted too low(Rip might have been drafted low but maybe not). Maybe a lot of GMs were drafting for need in between the players(they were). Maybe some GMs just make mistakes(there were a good share of those too).

I like your reasoning for Harden being better than Rip and like your Nick Young vs Rip comparison. I was just pulling your leg on whipping out the my player was chosen first card which I believe most vets in this game know is a bad argument.

[StartOrien]

The Pacers have a slight lead in my mind.  This series is the reason I haven't voted yet.

What's holding you up? Is there any questions either me or KC could answer that'd help you w/ your decision?

My plan was to sleep on it and ask questions tomorrow.

If KC's players were even the least bit proven he'd be out of your reach I think.

If you can, try to get them in tonight. I'm sure the GM's in the west coast would prefer to have most of the questions asked tomorrow be about their conference.

[Gainesville Celtic]

Thanks for the thoughtful response Roy (and check your baseball team trade offers  when you have a min...)

It might be too late to change your vote, but i'd like to tease some of these out....

Durant *is* good enough to win a series by himself but how many *has* he won by himself?

Durant was extremely good in the playoffs last season.  41 points to close out game 5 against Denver, 39 to shut down Memphis in Game 7.  He's won plenty of games with little help from teammates.  Anecdotally, it's when Durant's teammates (i.e., Westbrook) try to do too much that the Thunder struggled, as it forced Durant out of the offense. 

Again, I"m not doubting Durant's awesome abilities... but that 41 points vs. DEN came against Danilo Galinari, Al Harrington and Wilson Chandler --- none of whom is 1/2 the defender Deng is.

And his 39 against MEM, came on the heels of his 11 point and 19 point games. OKC doesn't win those without his teammates "doing too much"... and as I've said I think the OKC crew is better than the crew Durant has here on NJ Nets.

Rip Hamilton *was* good but can someone articulate (not just say it's so) why they think he has an advantage over the younger, still developing Nick Young despite them having nearly identical seasons last year (right down to them both playing on bad teams).

I don't see Nick Young as a key contributor on a winner.  I just don't.  He seems to be a me-first, no-BBIQ player.  Hamilton, on the other hand, is a former champion and has played in multiple Finals.  As your team sags off him to help on Durant, he's going to get a lot of open looks.

Like Duncan, Hamilton is not the player he used to be. I've yet to see anyone give him his fair share of the mess there's been in DET. If he loses minutes to Rudy F, does he go in the tank in NJ too?

More importantly b/c we have Deng -- a plus defender at the SF spot -- we won't have to sag off Hamilton the same way other teams would.

How is the supposed advantage at the 2 and 4 (what a 10 point advantage?) that much bigger than NY's advantage at the Center position where NJ has 2 of the least offensively-skilled Centers going up against one of the transcendent talents of the last 25 years. Even at 60% of what he used to be, Duncan >>> Perk + Joel Anthony.

I don't look at advantages in terms of net points.  Rather, it's about creating mismatches, causing foul trouble, and forcing adjustments.  Scola is going to be too physical for Gibson / Blair to contain over long stretches.  He's going to win the battle on the boards, and in the paint.  Hamilton is going to require his defender to play close, opening up more room for Durant.  As for Duncan, I love the guy, but in the playoffs he couldn't manage more than 16 points.  He only scored 20+ in 11 games all season.  To me, that's not the type of guy you can rely on to carry your team to victory as a focal point.

Point well taken about it not being about net points -- i was simply trying to quantify how big an advantage people see at 2/4... My point was that if we don't help on Scola what's the best he can do vs. Gibson or Duncan or Blair? 10 points more than he normally would? I just don't see that as a turning point for this series.

I agree its about mismatches, foul trouble, adjustments --- the kind that NJ will have to make to contain Deron Williams against Mike Conley.

What does NJ do when Williams gets by Conley (which he WILL do again and again?) Double off Duncan? Deng? Gibson? Hamilton will be in the corner guarding our 40% 3-point shooters (or better be). Duncan and Gibson will both make Scola and Perk pay for helping --- and of course Deron *will* get them the ball.

Like I said, Deng is quite capable of defending Durant straight up ---  and as i said in my initial playoff Presser... our goal is to play him straight up and aim to hold him to 25 ppg (which Deng has done in their matchups).

If we do that positive effect of Williams/Duncan's mismatches will outweight the supposed mismatches of Scola/Hamilton.

[Gainesville Celtic]

I think Duncan has a nice advantage on Perk but it'll be through his team offense rather than his own shot-creation abilities in the low post. I thought Perk did a nice job on Timmy in the past and should be able to be even more effective now that Timmy is aging.

However, Duncan is a highly skilled and intelligent offensive player who does a very good job of facilitating his team's offense with his high post passing, jump shooting, shot selection and screening. Perk, on the other hand, is often an offensive liability.

Yeah Duncan wants no part of Perkins in the post at his age. He hasn't for several years, though he'll face him up some.

Yes and in so doing (facing up 10 feet out) our goal is to negate Perkins' help defense around the rim and put him out of position for rebounds -- arguably Perks top 2 assets.

[Fafnir]

I think Duncan has a nice advantage on Perk but it'll be through his team offense rather than his own shot-creation abilities in the low post. I thought Perk did a nice job on Timmy in the past and should be able to be even more effective now that Timmy is aging.

However, Duncan is a highly skilled and intelligent offensive player who does a very good job of facilitating his team's offense with his high post passing, jump shooting, shot selection and screening. Perk, on the other hand, is often an offensive liability.

Yeah Duncan wants no part of Perkins in the post at his age. He hasn't for several years, though he'll face him up some.

Yes and in so doing (facing up 10 feet out) our goal is to negate Perkins' help defense around the rim and put him out of position for rebounds -- arguably Perks top 2 assets.

I don't think the occasionaly face up from Duncan will limit Perk's impact upon the game. Not unless you're giving Duncan a lot more touches than the Spurs did last year.

[Gainesville Celtic]

Wow GC!!! I thought it was clear it was a joke!!!

And I did read the whole thing and somewhat agree with you. I just don't like the "others agree with me because of where they were drafted" reasoning. Its a cop out that should never be used IMHO.

Maybe one player was drafted way too high(Harden probably was drafted too high). Maybe another was drafted too low(Rip might have been drafted low but maybe not). Maybe a lot of GMs were drafting for need in between the players(they were). Maybe some GMs just make mistakes(there were a good share of those too).

I like your reasoning for Harden being better than Rip and like your Nick Young vs Rip comparison. I was just pulling your leg on whipping out the my player was chosen first card which I believe most vets in this game know is a bad argument.

Haha, my bad Nick.  the knicks are feeling defensive   (though what else would you expect from a Thibodeau-coached team than defensiveness  )

I just wanted to make clear that I too don't like that as a reason why one player is better than the other and thought i'd gone to lengths to word it properly.

[Gainesville Celtic]

I think Duncan has a nice advantage on Perk but it'll be through his team offense rather than his own shot-creation abilities in the low post. I thought Perk did a nice job on Timmy in the past and should be able to be even more effective now that Timmy is aging.

However, Duncan is a highly skilled and intelligent offensive player who does a very good job of facilitating his team's offense with his high post passing, jump shooting, shot selection and screening. Perk, on the other hand, is often an offensive liability.

Yeah Duncan wants no part of Perkins in the post at his age. He hasn't for several years, though he'll face him up some.

Yes and in so doing (facing up 10 feet out) our goal is to negate Perkins' help defense around the rim and put him out of position for rebounds -- arguably Perks top 2 assets.

I don't think the occasionaly face up from Duncan will limit Perk's impact upon the game. Not unless you're giving Duncan a lot more touches than the Spurs did last year.

But Duncan is a gifted enought passer & shooter that Perk has to respect that 10 foot shot and Duncan will routinely draw him fruther from the basket than any other Center.

Williams will know how to work off of Duncan with the ball to get others open -- he's a much more gifted playmaker than Parker, giving the Fake Knicks an added wrinkle that the Real Spurs couldn't rely on.

[riah32]

Thanks for the thoughtful response Roy (and check your baseball team trade offers  when you have a min...)

It might be too late to change your vote, but i'd like to tease some of these out....

Durant *is* good enough to win a series by himself but how many *has* he won by himself?

Durant was extremely good in the playoffs last season.  41 points to close out game 5 against Denver, 39 to shut down Memphis in Game 7.  He's won plenty of games with little help from teammates.  Anecdotally, it's when Durant's teammates (i.e., Westbrook) try to do too much that the Thunder struggled, as it forced Durant out of the offense. 

Again, I"m not doubting Durant's awesome abilities... but that 41 points vs. DEN came against Danilo Galinari, Al Harrington and Wilson Chandler --- none of whom is 1/2 the defender Deng is.

And his 39 against MEM, came on the heels of his 11 point and 19 point games. OKC doesn't win those without his teammates "doing too much"... and as I've said I think the OKC crew is better than the crew Durant has here on NJ Nets.

Rip Hamilton *was* good but can someone articulate (not just say it's so) why they think he has an advantage over the younger, still developing Nick Young despite them having nearly identical seasons last year (right down to them both playing on bad teams).

I don't see Nick Young as a key contributor on a winner.  I just don't.  He seems to be a me-first, no-BBIQ player.  Hamilton, on the other hand, is a former champion and has played in multiple Finals.  As your team sags off him to help on Durant, he's going to get a lot of open looks.

Like Duncan, Hamilton is not the player he used to be. I've yet to see anyone give him his fair share of the mess there's been in DET. If he loses minutes to Rudy F, does he go in the tank in NJ too?

More importantly b/c we have Deng -- a plus defender at the SF spot -- we won't have to sag off Hamilton the same way other teams would.

How is the supposed advantage at the 2 and 4 (what a 10 point advantage?) that much bigger than NY's advantage at the Center position where NJ has 2 of the least offensively-skilled Centers going up against one of the transcendent talents of the last 25 years. Even at 60% of what he used to be, Duncan >>> Perk + Joel Anthony.

I don't look at advantages in terms of net points.  Rather, it's about creating mismatches, causing foul trouble, and forcing adjustments.  Scola is going to be too physical for Gibson / Blair to contain over long stretches.  He's going to win the battle on the boards, and in the paint.  Hamilton is going to require his defender to play close, opening up more room for Durant.  As for Duncan, I love the guy, but in the playoffs he couldn't manage more than 16 points.  He only scored 20+ in 11 games all season.  To me, that's not the type of guy you can rely on to carry your team to victory as a focal point.

Point well taken about it not being about net points -- i was simply trying to quantify how big an advantage people see at 2/4... My point was that if we don't help on Scola what's the best he can do vs. Gibson or Duncan or Blair? 10 points more than he normally would? I just don't see that as a turning point for this series.

I agree its about mismatches, foul trouble, adjustments --- the kind that NJ will have to make to contain Deron Williams against Mike Conley.

What does NJ do when Williams gets by Conley (which he WILL do again and again?) Double off Duncan? Deng? Gibson? Hamilton will be in the corner guarding our 40% 3-point shooters (or better be). Duncan and Gibson will both make Scola and Perk pay for helping --- and of course Deron *will* get them the ball.

Like I said, Deng is quite capable of defending Durant straight up ---  and as i said in my initial playoff Presser... our goal is to play him straight up and aim to hold him to 25 ppg (which Deng has done in their matchups).

If we do that positive effect of Williams/Duncan's mismatches will outweight the supposed mismatches of Scola/Hamilton.

I think your putting to much weight on WIlliams advantage over Conley. You make it seem like Conley gets dominated by Williams. One thought has Conley had the help behind him that he will have when facing williams this time. I would have to think Scola and Perkins are better defensively than Z-Bo and Marc Gasol.

[mgent]

Deron Williams is on a whole different level than Conley.

[Fafnir]

I think Duncan has a nice advantage on Perk but it'll be through his team offense rather than his own shot-creation abilities in the low post. I thought Perk did a nice job on Timmy in the past and should be able to be even more effective now that Timmy is aging.

However, Duncan is a highly skilled and intelligent offensive player who does a very good job of facilitating his team's offense with his high post passing, jump shooting, shot selection and screening. Perk, on the other hand, is often an offensive liability.

Yeah Duncan wants no part of Perkins in the post at his age. He hasn't for several years, though he'll face him up some.

Yes and in so doing (facing up 10 feet out) our goal is to negate Perkins' help defense around the rim and put him out of position for rebounds -- arguably Perks top 2 assets.

I don't think the occasionaly face up from Duncan will limit Perk's impact upon the game. Not unless you're giving Duncan a lot more touches than the Spurs did last year.

But Duncan is a gifted enought passer & shooter that Perk has to respect that 10 foot shot and Duncan will routinely draw him fruther from the basket than any other Center.

Not buying it, not with the number of shot attempts you have allocated to Duncan and the role you have in his offense. Duncan will still impact the series more than Perkins, but Perkins will have his own impact unhindered.

Also how the heck is Duncan facing up from 10 feet? Since when will Perk let him catch it that close? Facing him up in the high post will put Duncan much farther from the hoop than that anyways.