CB Draft 2011 Central Division Press Conferences

[Fafnir]

Okay, what you say is not true. Parker/Lee/George/Ariza are not as proficient at creating turnovers.

Especially given the lineups you are putting out there in the regular season. Without the high number of turnovers the Pacers defensive efficiency is going to drop.

I guess as always, we'll have to agree to disagree Faf.

You'll have trouble backing that up if/when the people look at steals and steals percentage.

Imperfect indicators, sure, but they all point that your position that Parker/Lee/Ariza/George can replace the number of turnovers force is unlikely to be true.

[action781]

Does Gay help your team?

Last year with Gay, Memphis won at a 54% clip.

With out Gay, they won at a 60% clip and won the franchises first ever playoff game and series.  

Does Gay really fit well with those two big men or are they better with the stronger role players they had in the playoffs?

This is an excellent question and, to be honest, the one I anticipated and initially feared answering the most.  I also questioned this a ton in the two weeks that we put the Pacers together.  All the thought on this issue is what ultimately led us to not consider trading Gay (unless for an elite player) and be confident that he was a very good fit for this team.


Beginning the season, Memphis did win at a 54% clip, but let's break this down more:

From October to December, Memphis started: Conley-Mayo-Gay-Randolph-Gasol 15 times and the team had a 4-11 record during that time.

From October to the time of Gay's injury, Memphis started: Conley-TA/Young-Gay-Randolph-Gasol and the team had a 27-15 (64%) record.

Yay for small sample sizes!

I think your team is going to struggle to replicate the Grizzlies formula. They were effective on defense primarily because they forced so many turnovers, I don't see your modified Grizzlies as beign able to replicate that.

Well, to be fair, 27-15 is 42 games.  Yet people seem very comfortable judging the post-Gay Grizzlies on 25 regular season and 13 postseason games (total of 38).  I don't see those 42 games (over half a season) with Gay and without Mayo as being too small of a sample size to consider since people feel just fine judging the 38 game Grizzlies w/o Gay.

What I'd like to point out is that we are not trying to "replicate the Grizzlies formula".  We are trying to do this:

• Pound the ball down low and rebound well
• Spread the floor for our bigs down low with outside shooting(Memphis did poorly)
• Attack the lane from the point at times with Tony Parker and Teague
• Defend wings well on the perimeter at all times
• Have good scoring options when our bench bigs sit (Gay provides to us)

A few of those goals are very similar to the playoff Grizzlies, but I think we are a little different than the playoff Grizzlies.  If we cannot force as many turnovers as the playoff Grizzlies, then we have other aspects of our game we do much better, like spreading the floor, attacking the lane from the point, and having a fantastic option to score points in Gay against other benches when Randolph and Gasol sit.

Some people may certainly think that the... 5 or so extra turnovers that Memphis could possibly create outweighs all the other advantages the Pawnee Pacers have over the Grizzlies.  But we feel that our current advantages outweigh those few extra turnovers.

So you conceed that you'll fall back defensively, but improve offensively.

Given the number of easy points that those turnovers gave I'm not sure how much you will gain offensively. But any defensive decline will drop you from the top 10 to average. That's not a playoff winning formula.

That's your opinion.  If you think Dallas was a top defensive team in the NBA, I'd strongly disagree.  The Lakers were not among the elite defenses in the NBA when they won their championships neither.  Furthermore, it was reported that Greg Popovich wanted to gear the Spurs to a more offensive oriented team because of the direction the league was heading.  (Sorry, my google skills aren't good enough to come up with a quote.)

So, perhaps you believe that is not a playoff winning formula, but that is completely opinion and one that I (and others like Popovich and Danny Ainge based on their recent transactions) strongly disagree with.

[StartOrien]

You'll have trouble backing that up if/when the people look at steals and steals percentage.

Imperfect indicators, sure, but they all point that your position that Parker/Lee/Ariza/George can replace the number of turnovers force is unlikely to be true.

But that's just statistically inaccurate. They're incredibly similar. Check the numbers.

I'll bring em.

[Fafnir]

That's your opinion.  If you think Dallas was a top defensive team in the NBA, I'd strongly disagree.  The Lakers were not among the elite defenses in the NBA when they won their championships neither.  Furthermore, it was reported that Greg Popovich wanted to gear the Spurs to a more offensive oriented team because of the direction the league was heading.  (Sorry, my google skills aren't good enough to come up with a quote.)

So, perhaps you believe that is not a playoff winning formula, but that is completely opinion and one that I (and others like Popovich and Danny Ainge based on their recent transactions) strongly disagree with.

Some of what you say isn't true. The last four champions of the NBA.

The Dallas Mavericks, 7th in defensive efficency. 105 rating
The Lakers, 4th in defensive efficiency. 103 rating
The Lakers, 6th in defensive efficiency. 104 rating
The Celtics, 1st in defensive efficiency. 99 rating

You usually need a very good offense and defense to win in the NBA. The Mavericks had a very good defense last year, as did the Lakers both title years, and of course the Celtics did in 07.

As an aside the Grizzlies had nearly an identical defensive rating to the Mavericks last year.

[mgent]

Tony led the league in steals per 48 at 4.1, a full steal ahead of 2nd place Chris Paul.

Per 48, when he was playing 11 minutes per game.

I don't get it.  He averaged 20.  1.8 steals is an incredible amount for so few minutes.

Tony has ranked in the top of the league in steals per minute every year.  This is because he's the best in the league at it.  If he played starter minutes, he'd be averaging 3 a year and leading the league in total steals easy.

[Fafnir]

Tony led the league in steals per 48 at 4.1, a full steal ahead of 2nd place Chris Paul.

Per 48, when he was playing 11 minutes per game.

I don't get it.  He averaged 20.  1.8 steals is an incredible amount for so few minutes.

Tony has ranked in the top of the league in steals per minute every year.  This is because he's the best in the league at it.  If he played starter minutes, he'd be averaging 3 a year and leading the league in total steals easy.

Well part of the reason he can't get starter minutes is his foul rate, part of the way he plays (and probably why he gets so many turnovers created)

[mgent]

That's your opinion.  If you think Dallas was a top defensive team in the NBA, I'd strongly disagree.  The Lakers were not among the elite defenses in the NBA when they won their championships neither.  Furthermore, it was reported that Greg Popovich wanted to gear the Spurs to a more offensive oriented team because of the direction the league was heading.  (Sorry, my google skills aren't good enough to come up with a quote.)

So, perhaps you believe that is not a playoff winning formula, but that is completely opinion and one that I (and others like Popovich and Danny Ainge based on their recent transactions) strongly disagree with.

I don't think that's what Pop did.  He simply changed the offensive system in order to rely more on Parker and their excellent 3pt shooting, rather than continuing to focus the offense around a now incapable Duncan.

[Evantime34]

Sorry for the wait my presser will be up shortly.

[StartOrien]

Rudy Gay: 39.9 minutes, 1.7 steals, 1.1 blocks
Trevor Ariza: 34.7 minutes, 1.6 steals, .4 blocks
Courtney Lee: 21.3 minutes, .7 steals, .2 blocks
Paul George: 20.7 minutes, 1.0 steals, .4 blocks
Tony Parker: 32.4 minutes, 1.2 steals, 0 blocks

----

Tony Allen: 18.4 minutes (my mistake, saw fga), 1.8 steals, .6 blocks
Shane Battier: 29 minutes, .8 steals, 1.0 blocks
OJ Mayo: 26.3 minutes, 1.4 steals, .5 blocks
Sam Young: 20.2 minutes, .9 steals, .3 blcoks
Mike Conley 35.5 miinutes, 1.8 steals, .2 blocks

[mgent]

Tony led the league in steals per 48 at 4.1, a full steal ahead of 2nd place Chris Paul.

Per 48, when he was playing 11 minutes per game.

I don't get it.  He averaged 20.  1.8 steals is an incredible amount for so few minutes.

Tony has ranked in the top of the league in steals per minute every year.  This is because he's the best in the league at it.  If he played starter minutes, he'd be averaging 3 a year and leading the league in total steals easy.

Well part of the reason he can't get starter minutes is his foul rate, part of the way he plays (and probably why he gets so many turnovers created)

No, it's because he was injured for like 4 years in a row which never allowed him to improve his game after a promising rookie year.

I think if he can stay healthy, he'll see a minute increase in Memphis next year.  He was always better than Mayo, he just had to prove it.

[Fafnir]

http://bkref.com/tiny/ctBSO

Here is a side by side of the starters that have changed.

http://bkref.com/tiny/lv1tK

Bench players, (I think I got the right ones)

[StartOrien]

Rudy Gay: 39.9 minutes, 1.7 steals, 1.1 blocks
Trevor Ariza: 34.7 minutes, 1.6 steals, .4 blocks
Courtney Lee: 21.3 minutes, .7 steals, .2 blocks
Paul George: 20.7 minutes, 1.0 steals, .4 blocks
Tony Parker: 32.4 minutes, 1.2 steals, 0 blocks

----

Tony Allen: 18.4 minutes (my mistake, saw fga), 1.8 steals, .6 blocks
Shane Battier: 29 minutes, .8 steals, 1.0 blocks
OJ Mayo: 26.3 minutes, 1.4 steals, .5 blocks
Sam Young: 20.2 minutes, .9 steals, .3 blcoks
Mike Conley 35.5 miinutes, 1.8 steals, .2 blocks

This difference doesn't seem to support that there'd be a significant dropoff in turnovers created.

[Fafnir]

Rudy Gay: 39.9 minutes, 1.7 steals, 1.1 blocks
Trevor Ariza: 34.7 minutes, 1.6 steals, .4 blocks
Courtney Lee: 21.3 minutes, .7 steals, .2 blocks
Paul George: 20.7 minutes, 1.0 steals, .4 blocks
Tony Parker: 32.4 minutes, 1.2 steals, 0 blocks

----

Tony Allen: 18.4 minutes (my mistake, saw fga), 1.8 steals, .6 blocks
Shane Battier: 29 minutes, .8 steals, 1.0 blocks
OJ Mayo: 26.3 minutes, 1.4 steals, .5 blocks
Sam Young: 20.2 minutes, .9 steals, .3 blcoks
Mike Conley 35.5 miinutes, 1.8 steals, .2 blocks

Rate statistics or get out (pace/minutes adjusted)

Also the difference between league leading and league average is only 2 turnovers a game once you normalize for pace. Possessions matter, a lot in the NBA.

Unless you can convince me that your overall team defense (eFG%, Defensive Rebounding, Foul rate) will improve I think the Pacers defense will be worse than the Grizzlies.

[action781]

That's your opinion.  If you think Dallas was a top defensive team in the NBA, I'd strongly disagree.  The Lakers were not among the elite defenses in the NBA when they won their championships neither.  Furthermore, it was reported that Greg Popovich wanted to gear the Spurs to a more offensive oriented team because of the direction the league was heading.  (Sorry, my google skills aren't good enough to come up with a quote.)

So, perhaps you believe that is not a playoff winning formula, but that is completely opinion and one that I (and others like Popovich and Danny Ainge based on their recent transactions) strongly disagree with.

Some of what you say isn't true. The last four champions of the NBA.

The Dallas Mavericks, 7th in defensive efficency. 105 rating
The Lakers, 4th in defensive efficiency. 103 rating
The Lakers, 6th in defensive efficiency. 104 rating
The Celtics, 1st in defensive efficiency. 99 rating

You usually need a very good offense and defense to win in the NBA. The Mavericks had a very good defense last year, as did the Lakers both title years, and of course the Celtics did in 07.

Wow, this definitely shocked me.  I don't recall the Mavs being widely regarded for their defense.  Maybe it's because they only finished 9th out of the 16 playoff teams when it came to playoff defensive efficiency (honest curiosity here, not being snide).  Which, I suppose, makes me wonder... how important is defense again?  Basketball is the only sport where they say, great defense can't always stop great offense.

Also, offense can carry teams to great regular season success and this is a regular season press conference.  I think in the playoffs, it comes down to matchups more than simply having a great defense or offense, so while you are correct in that lately the championship teams have had great defenses, I'll look forward to taking the playoffs one round at a time.

To avoid being repetitive, I'll leave it to StartOrien to discuss why the Pacers won't be much worse (if at all) than the Grizzlies.

[Roy H.]

Here's how I see the teams in this division ranking, with their seeding in the East:

2.  Indiana (Pawnee)
5.  Milwaukee (El Salvador)
6.  Chicago
11. Detroit

All GMs, feel free to argue why your team should be ranked higher.  (I feel terrible about Detroit, if only because they don't seem like an 11 seed to me.  However, I don't know who to move them in front of overall in the East.)