2011 CB Draft Northwest Division Press Conference

[mgent]

I don't think we'll have any 60 win teams in this fantasy league.

There is too much parity for those type of high (or low) win-loss records.

I agree. There is no team that is ahead by leaps and bounds. I think 55 wins is stretching it in the West. I think only Indiana can win that many games in the whole league and that's because the East is so much weaker.

The Pacers might be better than the 46 win Grizzlies, but the 76ers are better than the 58 win Heat.

I disagree

Yeah, I really disagree. The Heat were a demonstrably better team.

Same.  You take those 60 win Cavs teams of the last couple years and replace Lebron with Iggy and they become a 40-46 win teams IMO.  That's how much better Lebron is than Iggy.  Because of fit and other pieces, your Philly team won't actually lose 15 wins off of Miami's 58, but I think that proves a point on how much better (or just how plain good) Lebron is and that huge downgrade hurts your comparison.

You forgot to add Wade to those teams.

LeBron is a better scorer, so what?  Iggy is right there in athleticism, defense, passing, and rebounding.  LeBron is an upgrade, but having a small downgrade at 1 position and a much more well-rounded team is a way better formula for winning.

One superstar is all you need.

[Kane3387]

Forgive me, Al Jefferson.

The Jazz’s real problem has been their defense. Last season, the Jazz ranked 11th in defensive efficiency. This season, they rank 2oth. There are a number of reasons why the Jazz aren’t playing as well defensively as they did the last season, but the biggest one is likely Al Jefferson.

There’s a lot to like about Al Jefferson’s game. At 26 years old, he’s one of the few remaining pure post-up players in the NBA, and his jump hook is a thing of beauty. He’s capable of scoring from the block in a way that most young players simply aren’t taught to anymore, and that’s why he was the centerpiece of the trade that got the Celtics KG.

However, no team has ever been able to play decent def,ense while starting Al Jefferson, and that hasn’t changed now that Jefferson is in Utah. Starting in the 06-07 season, when Jefferson first became a starter for the Celtics, here are the number of points per 100 possessions Jefferson’s teams have given up when he was on/off the floor:

06-07 Celtics: 108.5 with Jefferson/102.8 without Jefferson

07-08 Timberwolves: 116.0 with Jefferson/103.9 without Jefferson

08-09 Timberwolves: 112.3 with Jefferson/113.2 without Jefferson

09-10 Timberwolves: 113.1 with Jefferson/111.2 without Jefferson

10-11 Jazz: 112.0 with Jefferson/101.3 without Jefferson

As you can see, the only teams that didn’t play significantly worse defense with Jefferson on the floor were the 08-09 and 09-10 Timberwolves, and that was only because they were so bad defensively Jefferson wasn’t able to do much damage. +/- is a very dangerous stat, but Al Jefferson has started for six seasons for three different teams, and all of them have played horrible defense when he is on the floor.

None of this disputes anecdotal evidence, either: Jefferson can block shots, but he’s extremely slow-moving on defense, doesn’t expend much energy on that end, and has long been considered a defensive liability.

Jefferson also primarily has been paired with a less in shape Perkins (pre-KG), Kevin Love, and Paul Milsap. None of those guys are specifically known for their help defense. Now you pair him with KG and things change.

The last few years Shaq was known as a liability on defense. Perk was known as a great defender... And when you exchanged Perk for Shaq was the Celtics defense really affected? Nope. Why is this? Kevin Garnett!

The maniacal defender that he is still one of the best help defenders in the NBA. Only Howard might be better. You can yell and scream Rajon Rondo's presence all you want but see below:

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Celtics are averaging 101.9 points per 48 minutes with Garnett on the court, while their opponents put up 91.2 points per 48 minutes. In other words, the Celtics outscore their opponents by an average of 10.7 points per 48 minutes with him playing.

But when Garnett is not playing -- both when he has missed games and when he is on the bench -- the Celtics put up 97.1 points per 48 minutes compared with their opponents' 95.0 -- just a 2.1-point advantage.

KG covers up mistakes so well not even the video cameras catch them sometimes. On top of that when KG is out Big Al will be playing with Haywood at C, who is arguably the best shot blocking big man he will ever play with.

Against Stoudemire teams have to play very good TEAM defense. No one will be asking Big Al to go out there and shut down Stoudemire. But it's not like Bogut is super quick to begin with anyways. He's not going to blow by Jefferson but rather attempt to shoot over him.

Depending on your pace how many touches will Bogut see on the bock anyway?

This is still a question you haven't answered... How fast will you play? Amare has shown if he doesn't play fast he isn't as effective and gets unhappy.

They were winning boat loads of games under Mike D’Antoni and Stoudemire was one of the most dynamic big men in the league paired wih Steve Nash.

Then general manager Steve Kerr gets the brilliant idea to bring in a not-so-mobile, aging Shaq with the idea that the Suns needed to do something other than run-and-gun. Oh yes, they need a slow, plodding presence in the middle to compete with the Spurs and Lakers. Right.

It hasn’t worked out so well, as you may have heard, and Stoudemire has gotten lost in first-year coach Terry Porter’s slower, more methodical offense.

Now those rumblings have come back: It appears the Suns front office is now more willing to trade Stoudemire because he’s probably their most valuable piece, “appreciation for him locally is declining,” whatever that means, and the Suns are flat struggling

.

http://rumorsandrants.com/2009/02/memo-to-paxson-do-something-worthwhile-and-get-amare.html

Bogut definitely isn't the most mobile guy... Defensively I agree Bogut can have Amare's back when he gets beat, which he will a lot, but offensively they aren't as good a fit as you are making them out to be. Bogut is good in the halfcourt but he doesn't play fast.

But I'll be darned if the hard-nosed, old-school Skiles isn't adapting big time before our eyes. Folks, your Milwaukee Bucks are runnin' like Nellie's Warriors and pushin' it like D'Antoni's Knicks. Check out what the Bucks have done the past three games: 121 points versus the Pistons, 124 versus the Rockets and 122 versus the Pacers.

Yes, that's a small sample size, skewed by the fact the Detroit game went to OT and that Indiana barely defends at all. But something's happening here.

Actually, someone's missing here: Andrew Bogut. Bogut has a stress fracture in his back and may not return this season. So Skiles is adapting, not because Charles Darwin had a birthday this week, but because without Bogut, the Bucks' only options in the post are Francisco Elson and Dan Gadzuric. And "Elson," "Gadzuric" and "NBA-caliber starting center" are some more words that simply don't go together.

"With (Bogut) out, we're going to have to play a faster pace," Richard Jefferson told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. "That means more shots and more possessions. … Because there's so much up and down and so many points from fast breaks, it's going to make the scores a little bit higher."

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/basketball/fba/story?page=nbaforecaster08week17

See when Milwaukee has Bogut they are more of a grind it out half court team. That's not the system that Amare thrives in. He doesn't want to thrive in it either.

When asked whether he felt Porter's new system was helping that cause, Stoudemire said, "I'm not sure."

When told it wasn't good for him to feel that way, his response: "It ain't great!"

"You're not wrong in that we're not where we want to be yet," Nash said. "We're not running as much as we would like to. We've got some work to do.

"We emphasized going inside and our half-court game for six weeks during training camp and the preseason. That's what you're seeing. If we play too methodically for all 82 games, it's going to wear guys down. No doubt.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=smith_stephen&page=Stoudemire-081128

You're doing a GREAT job selling your team. I applaud that and am enjoying the challenge of the debate, but the fit with Bogut and Amare is greatly exaggerated. I think you would have been better off getting a guy like Noah.

[action781]

I don't think we'll have any 60 win teams in this fantasy league.

There is too much parity for those type of high (or low) win-loss records.

I agree. There is no team that is ahead by leaps and bounds. I think 55 wins is stretching it in the West. I think only Indiana can win that many games in the whole league and that's because the East is so much weaker.

The Pacers might be better than the 46 win Grizzlies, but the 76ers are better than the 58 win Heat.

I disagree

Yeah, I really disagree. The Heat were a demonstrably better team.

Same.  You take those 60 win Cavs teams of the last couple years and replace Lebron with Iggy and they become a 40-46 win teams IMO.  That's how much better Lebron is than Iggy.  Because of fit and other pieces, your Philly team won't actually lose 15 wins off of Miami's 58, but I think that proves a point on how much better (or just how plain good) Lebron is and that huge downgrade hurts your comparison.

You forgot to add Wade to those teams.

LeBron is a better scorer, so what?  Iggy is right there in athleticism, defense, passing, and rebounding.  LeBron is an upgrade, but having a small downgrade at 1 position and a much more well-rounded team is a way better formula for winning.

One superstar is all you need.

Yeah, my point was that it's not a small downgrade; it's a big downgrade.  Iggy is a fantastic defender, Lebron is still better IMO.  Lebron is also a considerably better passer and rebounder IMO by anecdote and by the #'s.  Heck, I think Lebron is easily a top 10 passer in the NBA.

One superstar being all you need is your opinion.  And it's not a bad one.  But having the best player in the NBA alongside that superstar is a pretty good thing too.  I agree and like that you have a more well rounded team.  But I don't think it makes up for the big downgrade at SF (and a downgrade at PF too).

You're still a top 2 team in the East IMO, just not a 60 win team nor better than the Miami Heat.  In my opinion.

[nickagneta]

Very strong division which wouldn't surprise me by placing 4 teams in the playoffs.

1. Portland - Amare and Bogut(who I am assuming health for) carry this team to a division title but just barely. I am not a believer yet in Lowry or anyone at the SF position

2. Utah - I really like this team but, you knew thw but was coming, I think unlike the Celtics, the mesh and need to sacrifice for the betterment of the team is not in the center or PG positions. Second in this division but probably no lower than 3rd or 4th in the conference.

3. Denver - a solid team made up of a bunch of #2 guys that I think just causes them not to have that killer edge that I think is necessary. A solid playoff team though

4. OKC - strange mix of players that doesn't work for me. Talent is there but I don't think it works. Still this team could sneak into the playoffs.

[Kane3387]

Very strong division which wouldn't surprise me by placing 4 teams in the playoffs.

1. Portland - Amare and Bogut(who I am assuming health for) carry this team to a division title but just barely. I am not a believer yet in Lowry or anyone at the SF position

2. Utah - I really like this team but, you knew thw but was coming, I think unlike the Celtics, the mesh and need to sacrifice for the betterment of the team is not in the center or PG positions. Second in this division but probably no lower than 3rd or 4th in the conference.

3. Denver - a solid team made up of a bunch of #2 guys that I think just causes them not to have that killer edge that I think is necessary. A solid playoff team though

4. OKC - strange mix of players that doesn't work for me. Talent is there but I don't think it works. Still this team could sneak into the playoffs.

Fair enough on Utah but at least read my analysis on the bogut amare fit a few posts above.

Also baron is a willing passer. In la he took a backseat to Blake and Gordon. As for big al... He likes to shoot but were not gonna run the offense threw him like in minny. Plus haywood is getting almost as many minutes there.

[celticpride07]

Very strong division which wouldn't surprise me by placing 4 teams in the playoffs.

1. Portland - Amare and Bogut(who I am assuming health for) carry this team to a division title but just barely. I am not a believer yet in Lowry or anyone at the SF position

2. Utah - I really like this team but, you knew thw but was coming, I think unlike the Celtics, the mesh and need to sacrifice for the betterment of the team is not in the center or PG positions. Second in this division but probably no lower than 3rd or 4th in the conference.

3. Denver - a solid team made up of a bunch of #2 guys that I think just causes them not to have that killer edge that I think is necessary. A solid playoff team though

4. OKC - strange mix of players that doesn't work for me. Talent is there but I don't think it works. Still this team could sneak into the playoffs.

kobe and rondo make the playoffs..2 champions and fierce competitors nobody can doubt their will to win.

[mgent]

I don't think we'll have any 60 win teams in this fantasy league.

There is too much parity for those type of high (or low) win-loss records.

I agree. There is no team that is ahead by leaps and bounds. I think 55 wins is stretching it in the West. I think only Indiana can win that many games in the whole league and that's because the East is so much weaker.

The Pacers might be better than the 46 win Grizzlies, but the 76ers are better than the 58 win Heat.

I disagree

Yeah, I really disagree. The Heat were a demonstrably better team.

Same.  You take those 60 win Cavs teams of the last couple years and replace Lebron with Iggy and they become a 40-46 win teams IMO.  That's how much better Lebron is than Iggy.  Because of fit and other pieces, your Philly team won't actually lose 15 wins off of Miami's 58, but I think that proves a point on how much better (or just how plain good) Lebron is and that huge downgrade hurts your comparison.

You forgot to add Wade to those teams.

LeBron is a better scorer, so what?  Iggy is right there in athleticism, defense, passing, and rebounding.  LeBron is an upgrade, but having a small downgrade at 1 position and a much more well-rounded team is a way better formula for winning.

One superstar is all you need.

Yeah, my point was that it's not a small downgrade; it's a big downgrade.  Iggy is a fantastic defender, Lebron is still better IMO.  Lebron is also a considerably better passer and rebounder IMO by anecdote and by the #'s.  Heck, I think Lebron is easily a top 10 passer in the NBA.

One superstar being all you need is your opinion.  And it's not a bad one.  But having the best player in the NBA alongside that superstar is a pretty good thing too.  I agree and like that you have a more well rounded team.  But I don't think it makes up for the big downgrade at SF (and a downgrade at PF too).

You're still a top 2 team in the East IMO, just not a 60 win team nor better than the Miami Heat.  In my opinion.

There's no way the upgrade of Iguodala to LeBron is greater than upgrades I have everywhere else.  He's got what?  1 assist and rebound more per game?  While having a usage of 31.5 compared to Andre's 19.2.  He's just as athletic, and he's just as good of a defender.  They had the same number of blocks and steals.  In the playoffs AI had a 10.5 rebound rate compared to LeBron's 11.6.  He also had a 32% assist percentage compared to LeBron's 27.6%.

He has the same fit next to Wade and is a much more willing 2nd option.  The majority of LeBron's advantage over Iguodala is in the scoring department.  However Wade is just as efficient of a scorer as LeBron and has proven that as a main option he's very capable of 30ppg.

My team is better defensively, has more and better size, has a much more well-rounded and versatile offense, and has a ridiculously better bench.

I don't see how you don't think one superstar is enough (Dirk, Kobe, Duncan).  Wade is clearly Finals MVP material.  Do I have to compare how much better my team is than last year's 5th seed Miami team that Wade was the only option on?  I'll be here for days.  It'll be way more than you improved the 8th seed Grizzlies.

[Fafnir]

I like Iggy, but he's a lot more of a downgrade than 1 rebound and 1 assist per game. LeBron changes how teams have to play both on offense and defense at all times, thats why he's a two time MVP and could have easily won it again this year.

I like your team, I think its more of a team than the real Heat.

[Kane3387]

I don't think we'll have any 60 win teams in this fantasy league.

There is too much parity for those type of high (or low) win-loss records.

I agree. There is no team that is ahead by leaps and bounds. I think 55 wins is stretching it in the West. I think only Indiana can win that many games in the whole league and that's because the East is so much weaker.

The Pacers might be better than the 46 win Grizzlies, but the 76ers are better than the 58 win Heat.

I disagree

Yeah, I really disagree. The Heat were a demonstrably better team.

Same.  You take those 60 win Cavs teams of the last couple years and replace Lebron with Iggy and they become a 40-46 win teams IMO.  That's how much better Lebron is than Iggy.  Because of fit and other pieces, your Philly team won't actually lose 15 wins off of Miami's 58, but I think that proves a point on how much better (or just how plain good) Lebron is and that huge downgrade hurts your comparison.

You forgot to add Wade to those teams.

LeBron is a better scorer, so what?  Iggy is right there in athleticism, defense, passing, and rebounding.  LeBron is an upgrade, but having a small downgrade at 1 position and a much more well-rounded team is a way better formula for winning.

One superstar is all you need.

Yeah, my point was that it's not a small downgrade; it's a big downgrade.  Iggy is a fantastic defender, Lebron is still better IMO.  Lebron is also a considerably better passer and rebounder IMO by anecdote and by the #'s.  Heck, I think Lebron is easily a top 10 passer in the NBA.

One superstar being all you need is your opinion.  And it's not a bad one.  But having the best player in the NBA alongside that superstar is a pretty good thing too.  I agree and like that you have a more well rounded team.  But I don't think it makes up for the big downgrade at SF (and a downgrade at PF too).

You're still a top 2 team in the East IMO, just not a 60 win team nor better than the Miami Heat.  In my opinion.

There's no way the upgrade of Iguodala to LeBron is greater than upgrades I have everywhere else.  He's got what?  1 assist and rebound more per game?  While having a usage of 31.5 compared to Andre's 19.2.  He's just as athletic, and he's just as good of a defender.  They had the same number of blocks and steals.  In the playoffs AI had a 10.5 rebound rate compared to LeBron's 11.6.  He also had a 32% assist percentage compared to LeBron's 27.6%.

He has the same fit next to Wade and is a much more willing 2nd option.  The majority of LeBron's advantage over Iguodala is in the scoring department.  However Wade is just as efficient of a scorer as LeBron and has proven that as a main option he's very capable of 30ppg.

My team is better defensively, has more and better size, has a much more well-rounded and versatile offense, and has a ridiculously better bench.

I don't see how you don't think one superstar is enough (Dirk, Kobe, Duncan).  Wade is clearly Finals MVP material.  Do I have to compare how much better my team is than last year's 5th seed Miami team that Wade was the only option on?  I'll be here for days.  It'll be way more than you improved the 8th seed Grizzlies.

Easy guys. Good stuff though. I like the passion.

[Roy H.]

I like Iggy, but he's a lot more of a downgrade than 1 rebound and 1 assist per game. LeBron changes how teams have to play both on offense and defense at all times, thats why he's a two time MVP and could have easily won it again this year.

That's probably true; if I had to guess, the real Heat wouldn't trade rosters with the fake 76ers (nor would they trade rosters with any team in this league). 

Philly does have the potential to be a more cohesive team, however.  Certainly, I expect the 76ers to be better than the Finals Heat, where Lebron disappeared and Bosh played poorly.

[mgent]

I like Iggy, but he's a lot more of a downgrade than 1 rebound and 1 assist per game. LeBron changes how teams have to play both on offense and defense at all times, thats why he's a two time MVP and could have easily won it again this year.

Yeah, when he's got the ball in his hands.  In the halfcourt, the Heat are pretty much only as effective as either Wade or LeBron are playing.  The only way they really improve each other's game is in the open court.  I think Iguodala is athletic enough where they will be almost as effective in the open court.

LeBron brings a ton of offense to the Heat, but about the same as Wade does when he's got the ball in his hands.  On my team Wade will just have the ball in his hands more, and I don't see that affecting the scoring efficiency too much.

[action781]

I don't see how you don't think one superstar is enough (Dirk, Kobe, Duncan).  

I actually never said.  I actually said that was an opinion and actually not a bad opinion. (see below)  But I said that adding the best player in the NBA alongside that superstar is simply better.  There are at least 10 teams in the CBNBA who have superstars.  Yeah, Wade is one of them.  Yeah, you and 9 other teams in the CBNBA all of superstars capable of carrying a good supporting cast to a championship.  But I'd still like you better if you had Lebron too.  That's all.

Yeah, my point was that it's not a small downgrade; it's a big downgrade.  Iggy is a fantastic defender, Lebron is still better IMO.  Lebron is also a considerably better passer and rebounder IMO by anecdote and by the #'s.  Heck, I think Lebron is easily a top 10 passer in the NBA.

One superstar being all you need is your opinion.  And it's not a bad one.  But having the best player in the NBA alongside that superstar is a pretty good thing too.  I agree and like that you have a more well rounded team.  But I don't think it makes up for the big downgrade at SF (and a downgrade at PF too).

You're still a top 2 team in the East IMO, just not a 60 win team nor better than the Miami Heat.  In my opinion.

There's no way the upgrade of Iguodala to LeBron is greater than upgrades I have everywhere else.  He's got what?  1 assist and rebound more per game?  While having a usage of 31.5 compared to Andre's 19.2.  He's just as athletic, and he's just as good of a defender.  They had the same number of blocks and steals.  In the playoffs AI had a 10.5 rebound rate compared to LeBron's 11.6.  He also had a 32% assist percentage compared to LeBron's 27.6%.

He has the same fit next to Wade and is a much more willing 2nd option.  The majority of LeBron's advantage over Iguodala is in the scoring department.  However Wade is just as efficient of a scorer as LeBron and has proven that as a main option he's very capable of 30ppg.

My team is better defensively, has more and better size, has a much more well-rounded and versatile offense, and has a ridiculously better bench.

I still find him a considerably better passer and rebounder than Iggy.  Passing mostly by anecdote.  But looking at their numbers, Iggy has never been able to balance his scoring and assist totals.  If one goes up, the other goes down.  If Lebron were to outscore Iggy by 10 ppg, he'd still out assist him by 2 apg.  If Lebron decided to shoot far less and score as much as Iggy, he'd probably average 5 assists more per game than Iggy.

Rebounding, mostly because of size, stats (btw, if you're going to round a difference of 1.8 per game, 2 is the appropriate number to round to), and strength.

Regarding defense, I simply don't buy that Iggy is an equal defender.  It's not a problem, we are entitled to our different opinions.  I could support it if I wanted to, but it does the Pacers no good, so I'm going to back off from that and just let you know that equal steals and blocks doesn't convince me.  (But you should also know that I laugh at the notion that Iggy is and equally good shot blocker as Lebron)

Do I have to compare how much better my team is than last year's 5th seed Miami team that Wade was the only option on?  I'll be here for days.  It'll be way more than you improved the 8th seed Grizzlies.

I like you're wording there.  That "5th seed" Miami Heat team won 47 games playing in an absolute crap Eastern Conference and got wiped out in round 1.  The "8th seed" Grizzlies won 46 games in a much deeper Western Conference, then took down the #1 seed, and played 7 games in round 2.  You can compare your team to that Miami Heat team all you'd like.  But consider that Heat team for what it was:  how many wins that Heat team would win in the CBNBA?  Does it even make the playoffs in either conference?  You're right, you would be here for days discussing how much better Philly is to that Heat team (which is true), but I think that's a 30-38 win team in the CBNBA.


As friendly advice, I really do think your team is good, ask StartOrien privately where I put you in our rankings.  But if I were you, I'd focus more on your team as a team not like the Heat because many posters aren't buying Philly being better than the Heat so far.  So even though the Heat are great (ugh), it still casts a cloud over you of some sort being looked upon as inferior.  TP for the debating

[mgent]

A. Give Iguodala the ball as much as LeBron and it's a lot closer.

B. That team was absolutely pathetic, Wade carried them.  Chalmers, Beasley, Q-Rich, an injured JO?

[Roy H.]

But consider that Heat team for what it was:  how many wins that Heat team would win in the CBNBA?  Does it even make the playoffs in either conference?

Doesn't that speak somewhat to mgent's point?  If voters were evaluating that Heat team, they'd say "One star and a bunch of garbage isn't enough to win".  However, Wade took that team to 47 wins, and a win against a much better Celtics team (plus a couple other close losses).

Wade is phenomenal.  Surround him with a strong, cohesive, defensive-oriented team, and he's plenty good enough to win a title.  Having Wade alone launches Philly into the upper-echelon in this draft; adding West, Iggy, Varejao, Hinrich, Kmart, etc. around him propels Philly into the argument for best in the league.

[action781]

But consider that Heat team for what it was:  how many wins that Heat team would win in the CBNBA?  Does it even make the playoffs in either conference?

Doesn't that speak somewhat to mgent's point?  If voters were evaluating that Heat team, they'd say "One star and a bunch of garbage isn't enough to win".  However, Wade took that team to 47 wins, and a win against a much better Celtics team (plus a couple other close losses).

Wade is phenomenal.  Surround him with a strong, cohesive, defensive-oriented team, and he's plenty good enough to win a title.  Having Wade alone launches Philly into the upper-echelon in this draft; adding West, Iggy, Varejao, Hinrich, Kmart, etc. around him propels Philly into the argument for best in the league.

No, MY point was that those 47 wins were in a league with a horrendous eastern conference.  If mgent is saying "philly's wins will be proportional to how much better they are than that 5th seed (47 win) Miami team" then that argument is invalid here because Heat team doesn't win 47 games in the CBNBA.  They won 47 games because Wade is a superstar, but equally because that Eastern Conference was _________(I'm running out of adjectives here to describe utter crap).

The greatness of Wade is a different argument, I believe, and I don't see myself taking a different side than mgent.  Wade is great.