2011 CB draft: How does my team look?/division rankings

[celticpride07]

As for OKC, the plan is to let Kobe try and get his which will likely be inefficient. And then feast on Lewis in the paint.

im glad you know what the gameplan is already..

[Kane3387]

I've got me over Utah in 4 of the 5 matchups, significantly so a 3 of those. I also like my depth better. That doesn't make your team bad, or lottery bound, but I have mine as better (big surprise, right?

I see amare and gasol as a wash, thats basically a toss up.

As for miller bs Lowry... Lowry has been a starter for only 1/3 of a season. Miller has been the pg of many playoff teams, has played in big games, and is always cool under pressure. I trust him to make the right play when the pressure is on more then Lowry.

Bogut has an advantage when healthy but my depth can give him problems and bogut is just never 100%.

Pierce is a clear cut winner here and there is no one on either of our teams I would rather have the ball in someone's hands more then his.

Harden and Crawford . I like Crawford more. I say Crawford bc he won't start games but he will likely finish them.

TP for the response. I do like your team and appreciate the discussion. Thanks = )

[PosImpos]

I've got me over Utah in 4 of the 5 matchups, significantly so a 3 of those. I also like my depth better. That doesn't make your team bad, or lottery bound, but I have mine as better (big surprise, right?

I see amare and gasol as a wash, thats basically a toss up.

As for miller bs Lowry... Lowry has been a starter for only 1/3 of a season. Miller has been the pg of many playoff teams, has played in big games, and is always cool under pressure. I trust him to make the right play when the pressure is on more then Lowry.

Bogut has an advantage when healthy but my depth can give him problems and bogut is just never 100%.

Pierce is a clear cut winner here and there is no one on either of our teams I would rather have the ball in someone's hands more then his.

Harden and Crawford . I like Crawford more. I say Crawford bc he won't start games but he will likely finish them.

TP for the response. I do like your team and appreciate the discussion. Thanks = )

I like Miller a lot, but Lowry can run circles around him at this point, and though not a great shooter is still a better shooter (Miller really isn't one).

Amare is a lot better than Pau offensively, though I think Pau has the edge on the boards and they are somewhat close defensively.

When healthy I don't think Bogut would fear DMC or Haywood, especially not on the defensive end.

[Kane3387]

I'm very eager to hear why the consensus is that definitely Portland and Denver and sometimes Okc are considered better then Utah.... Is it depth? Most playoff teams play with an eight or nine man rotation. If I stand pat then Haywood is starting. My eight man rotation is very balanced, versatile, deep, and experienced. When I look at the match ups I just see Utah having the majority of the advantages. Three seven footers, a clutch leader and scorer, a solid distributor and conductor, a good shooter, the best sixth man, and a backup wing who would start on most teams.

Sincerely would like to know why my team can't get it done in multiple seven game series.

Thoughts?

Thanks.

Alright, let's do a comparison.



Jazz:

PG - Andre Miller
SG - Nick Young / Jamal Crawford
SF - Paul Pierce / Richard Jefferson
PF - Pau Gasol
C - DeMarcus Cousins / Brendan Haywood


You've got a couple guys you can rely on for scoring there, though nobody on the team is a truly transcendent scorer anymore.  You also lack any truly great defensive players, though as a whole the team shouldn't be too bad as long as DMC and Pau are locked in.  I'm not sure how reliable a backcourt of Miller / Young / Crawford is as far as spacing goes.

Overall I think your team is solid but it doesn't have anything that really wows me.  It looks like a lower seed playoff team at best, unless DMC turns into a 20-10 guy.


As for the Blazers, they have the combo of Amare / Bogut in the front court, which is a very good two way combo.  Tough to deal with.  The rest of the team is less intimidating, though Derrick Williams could perhaps be quite good, and Lowry has shown the ability to be a very solid all around point guard capable of running a team (provided it's up-tempo).  The roster doesn't look to have any real defensive deficiencies, either, other than Amare.

I don't like the Thunder very much; I think they'd be awful defensively and I don't see how they'd share the ball.  Still, Kobe and Melo would be dangerous enough that I think they'd be a tough team for many to deal with.  I think your team would defeat them easily in the playoffs, though, simply because you have a lot more size and inside scoring.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, have acceptable defense and balanced scoring up and down the lineup.  Everybody in the starting lineup can hit a deep mid-range shot with very good consistency, and they have a couple top scorers in Joe Johnson and Bosh, though neither is a clear #1.  They'd really need Bosh and Nene to focus on the boards, since both have a tendency to stray from the basket and not grab a ton of boards, but I think they'd be okay.  Honestly, I think the Nuggets would run the Jazz out of the building, and they are also better defensively.

Who are Denvers transcendent scorers? Johnson just had his worst year in like six years. Must have been pretty content after that fat contract. Do I really have to say anything about Bosh? Neither of those guys D up either. Give me pau and Paul over those two. George hill is a career backup. Is really ready to lead a contender?

[indeedproceed]

I've got me over Utah in 4 of the 5 matchups, significantly so a 3 of those. I also like my depth better. That doesn't make your team bad, or lottery bound, but I have mine as better (big surprise, right?

I see amare and gasol as a wash, thats basically a toss up.

Gasol has not outscored Amar'e in a H2H matchup since 2008. Career-wise, Amar'e has also out-rebounded him.

As for miller bs Lowry... Lowry has been a starter for only 1/3 of a season. Miller has been the pg of many playoff teams, has played in big games, and is always cool under pressure. I trust him to make the right play when the pressure is on more then Lowry.

Lowry stared 71 of 75 games last year. Over that time, he averaged 13pts, 7asts, 4rebs, and 37% shooting from 3, 43% FG.

Last year Miller started 81 games, and averaged 13pts, 7asts, 4rebs, on 46% shooting, and no 3pt shooting to speak of, (10.8% on 4 for 37 on the year).

After Aaron Brooks was traded, and he stopped sharing so much time with him, Lowry's minutes jumped to +35 and he averaged 18 pts, 7.6 asts, 4.7 rebs, 45% shooting, 40% from deep, and 88% from the line.

Lowry beats Miller pretty significantly when he gets his minutes.

Bogut has an advantage when healthy but my depth can give him problems and bogut is just never 100%.

If your depth is so significant, why is mine not? Derrick Williams can score on anyone you'll have guarding him, and you don't even have your backup 4 yet. Tiago Splitter is every bit the 7fter Haywood is (as in, they're both 6'10+), and while Haywood is tougher, Splitter is more skilled, and as good a rebounder.

Pierce is a clear cut winner here and there is no one on either of our teams I would rather have the ball in someone's hands more then his.

Okay, but Pierce/Delfino shot the same from deep, they have typically rebounded at the same clip throughout their careers, and Delfino is known almost primarily as a defensive player. He's not better or even in the same league (metaphorically speaking) as Pierce, but he's a good option as a 5th starter.

Harden and Crawford . I like Crawford more. I say Crawford bc he won't start games but he will likely finish them.

Crawford is a useful player in the right system, but Harden is the better player than either him or Young. Better passer (although Crawford has a slightly better assist # but he spends time at the PG, while Harden doesn't), better rebounder, better defender, and shoots slightly better %'s from the field and from 3. Plus, he gets to the line more often.

EDIT: Also, in the last 2 yrs, Harden has been significantly the better player during the playoffs.

Also, if you want to talk about total depth, Sessions is likely to be better than anyone you're going to grab later on in the draft, Williams is more versatile than your supersub Crawford, and Garcia/Jefferson is a wash in my mind, but I could see a slight advantage to Jefferson in a lot of people's minds based on previous bias.

Jefferson's defense took a complete nosedive this season, although his shooting did improve.

TP for the response. I do like your team and appreciate the discussion. Thanks = )

Back at you, I like your team too. Ha, just mine a little more I suppose.

[action781]

Hahaha - that was good - up to this point I've just only gotten leading questions in lieu of any team assessment at all.

That's fair. Sometimes rivalries in this game can engender a bit a guarded analysis that won't tip your hand.

Cavaliers Pros:

The offense on this team isn't hard at all to figure out, and that means it was well-conceived. Rubio is the straw that stirs the drink. Since he's not a good long-range shooter, he'll need to penetrate and create space. As long as that is within his ballpark, he's got some really good tools at his disposal, and that starts with Kevin Garnett.

Garnett's presence at the center will not be a total win, but on offense he ought to be pretty close. He's lost a lot of the speed on his formerly lethal first-step to the point where it cannot be an 'every down' weapon, but his jumper hasn't gone anywhere, and that ability will keep most centers (and most teams' defense anchors) from being nearly as effective as a help defender and lay-up/dunk deterrent.

That's important because it opens up runways so Blake Griffin can dunk on the souls of the league. Add Gallo, Redick, and Frye to that mix, and you've got long range shooters, solid midrange threats, and a lethal finisher with a clear runway.

I don't know how good Blake Griffin will be when its all said and done, but he should take a nice step forward next season, hopefully manifesting its self in a small step forward on his jumpshot (he shot just 37% on 9 attempted 2pt jumpers per game) and his defensive acumen. He should be just below the ceiling for a 2nd team All-NBA select next year, and should be a lock to repeat as an All-Star

Defensively this team has its issues, but its not on the perimeter. Rubio allegedly is a good enough defender, and next to him is JJ Redick who has held his own as adaquate against the league's guards for years now. Gallinari is a liability defensively, but Thabo Sefelosha is still one of the best perimeter defenders out there. On top of that, Sefelosha can guard most 3's as well as 2's and 1's (especially if the 1's are a little slower, or the 3's are a little lighter or smaller), and there is so much offensive firepower on this team that they can afford long stretches with a offensive underachiever in Thabo out there, because where most teams keep their offensively challenged guy (Center), the Cavs are rock solid.

Cons:

I don't know how the Cavs will deal with the larger offensively capable centers in the league, other than to run them out of the building. KG isn't built for the banging that he'll take from the Andrew Bynums, Boguts, and Howards of the league, and neither is anyone else on the Cavs roster. Teams that play inside-out ball or have a real offensive weapon at the center position will have a clear blueprint on how to succeed, because Garnett will not be able to play the disciplined help defense he likes to, and Blake Griffin is not good enough yet to do what Garnett does in his place.

Gallinari is another real problem area for Cleveland (as noted above), because he's too slow for the faster SF's, and too weak for the burlier ones. He'll need help against those guys, and the problem is that leaves the paint open for layups and dunks from the opposing teams' bigs.

Aside from injury concerns to Garnett, the other looming question as discussed previous is Ricky Rubio. Depending on who you read, or talk to, he may or may not have the tools to be a effective defender and ball distributor right away. The one thing everyone agrees on however is that he can't shoot, and he isn't a stellar athlete. This means that teams will just "Rondo" him up, and back off him. He'll have room to pass, but unlike Rondo he doesn't have 3 straight years of 8+ assist per game NBA seasons to draw on to prove he can still do his thing even when teams back off him. Plus, he's not nearly as fast, so the more athletic competition he'll face in the NBA will have an easier time anticipating his drives, and countering them. If Rubio can't get the ball to his teammates in a fashion that puts them in a place to succeed, the whole thing kind of falls apart, and the one truism in the NBA is that all rookies struggle mentally when they first enter the league, especially when they're asked to do too much. Asking Rubio to start and lead a high paced multi-faceted offensive team with multiple options might seem like a dream come true, but even in the best case scenario its going to involve some significant growing pains as the season wears on.

All in all, I think Cleveland has built a very very interesting team, but they need to bulk up at the center position with a starting-caliber option. Not that they'll start him, but because A) They'll need that option at some points and B) Garnett WILL get hurt, and Channing Frye will make what was a tenuous interior defense into a lay-up line. They also need a very competent backup PG (the Jennings comparison to Rubio was an interesting one, but even Jennings had Luke Ridnour, right). What they don't need is more skill on the wings or frontcourt, and they don't need more athleticism.

That's 860 words of analysis, and I expect a dozen TP's, as well as analysis in kind. Unless all that's out there are leading questions.

I just got home after several drinks and there's no way I can read all of this with a careful mind.  I hope to tomorrow though.  But, I give you a TP for such a (what I'm guessing is) well thought-out feedback response for another team.  These really play a big part in making this game fun and take a lot of time to write out.  I genuinely appreciate comments like these even when they aren't related to my team.

EDIT:  Haha, and I just saw IP's last sentence.  TP beggers don't get TPs from me!!!    j/k  Also, I've given you random TPs every day for all your work organizing this fun game, but haven't verbally expressed my thanks yet.  So, thanks for all your work.  This game is a ton of fun and wouldn't be possible without you.  I'd argue even too much fun since it has been taking away from a lot of my normal daily responsibilities haha.

[PosImpos]

I'm very eager to hear why the consensus is that definitely Portland and Denver and sometimes Okc are considered better then Utah.... Is it depth? Most playoff teams play with an eight or nine man rotation. If I stand pat then Haywood is starting. My eight man rotation is very balanced, versatile, deep, and experienced. When I look at the match ups I just see Utah having the majority of the advantages. Three seven footers, a clutch leader and scorer, a solid distributor and conductor, a good shooter, the best sixth man, and a backup wing who would start on most teams.

Sincerely would like to know why my team can't get it done in multiple seven game series.

Thoughts?

Thanks.

Alright, let's do a comparison.



Jazz:

PG - Andre Miller
SG - Nick Young / Jamal Crawford
SF - Paul Pierce / Richard Jefferson
PF - Pau Gasol
C - DeMarcus Cousins / Brendan Haywood


You've got a couple guys you can rely on for scoring there, though nobody on the team is a truly transcendent scorer anymore.  You also lack any truly great defensive players, though as a whole the team shouldn't be too bad as long as DMC and Pau are locked in.  I'm not sure how reliable a backcourt of Miller / Young / Crawford is as far as spacing goes.

Overall I think your team is solid but it doesn't have anything that really wows me.  It looks like a lower seed playoff team at best, unless DMC turns into a 20-10 guy.


As for the Blazers, they have the combo of Amare / Bogut in the front court, which is a very good two way combo.  Tough to deal with.  The rest of the team is less intimidating, though Derrick Williams could perhaps be quite good, and Lowry has shown the ability to be a very solid all around point guard capable of running a team (provided it's up-tempo).  The roster doesn't look to have any real defensive deficiencies, either, other than Amare.

I don't like the Thunder very much; I think they'd be awful defensively and I don't see how they'd share the ball.  Still, Kobe and Melo would be dangerous enough that I think they'd be a tough team for many to deal with.  I think your team would defeat them easily in the playoffs, though, simply because you have a lot more size and inside scoring.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, have acceptable defense and balanced scoring up and down the lineup.  Everybody in the starting lineup can hit a deep mid-range shot with very good consistency, and they have a couple top scorers in Joe Johnson and Bosh, though neither is a clear #1.  They'd really need Bosh and Nene to focus on the boards, since both have a tendency to stray from the basket and not grab a ton of boards, but I think they'd be okay.  Honestly, I think the Nuggets would run the Jazz out of the building, and they are also better defensively.

Who are Denvers transcendent scorers? Johnson just had his worst year in like six years. Must have been pretty content after that fat contract. Do I really have to say anything about Bosh? Neither of those guys D up either. Give me pau and Paul over those two. George hill is a career backup. Is really ready to lead a contender?

The Nuggets don't have transcendent scorers, either, but I think as #2 options at this point in their respective careers, Joe Johnson + Chris Bosh are at least pretty close to Paul Pierce + Pau Gasol. 

Besides those two on the Nuggets roster, I think they have a lot more efficient, reliable scoring and floor spacing up and down the roster than your Jazz do.

As for defense, I don't see any glaring holes on that team.  Assuming they had a coach and a defensive system that worked well, I think they'd be at least an average defensive squad to go with being a very good offensive team.

[action781]

Posimpos, I haven't been reading all of your posts in detail (hope to tomorrow), but thank you and TP for giving us an impartial, outsider perspective.  While you probably are doing it just because you enjoy it, we very much appreciate it also.

[PosImpos]

Posimpos, I haven't been reading all of your posts in detail (hope to tomorrow), but thank you and TP for giving us an impartial, outsider perspective.  While you probably are doing it just because you enjoy it, we very much appreciate it also.

Boredom my friend, boredom.


And you're welcome.

[KCattheStripe]

Atlantic Division:


3. Celtics -- Lacking in shooting, and I'm not sure about how well that backcourt fits together.  Duncan / Monroe / Gibson could work well, but I think this team might lean a bit too heavily on Duncan to score 15-20 points a night.

Lacking in shooting? Holiday shot 37% last year from 3, Gordon 36%,  Deng 35% and James Jones comes off the bench. I also am not sure how this backcourt doesn't fit well together , Gordon is a scorer who may need the ball in his hands a lot, but Holiday has already succeeded in playing along side a player like that in Iggy. As for scoring, if last years averages hold up, I get close to 53 ppg from the wings and point.

[PosImpos]

Atlantic Division:


3. Celtics -- Lacking in shooting, and I'm not sure about how well that backcourt fits together.  Duncan / Monroe / Gibson could work well, but I think this team might lean a bit too heavily on Duncan to score 15-20 points a night.

Lacking in shooting? Holiday shot 37% last year from 3, Gordon 36%,  Deng 35% and James Jones comes off the bench. I also am not sure how this backcourt doesn't fit well together , Gordon is a scorer who may need the ball in his hands a lot, but Holiday has already succeeded in playing along side a player like that in Iggy. As for scoring, if last years averages hold up, I get close to 53 ppg from the wings and point.

Of the 3 players you mentioned, Eric Gordon is the only one I'd expect to be able to rely on for 3's in any volume, and he's very streaky.  Holliday has improved as a shooter, but he's still not reliable, and Deng is a much better mid-range shooter than a 3 point threat.  James Jones is of course a good shooter, but on a good team he shouldn't get many minutes since shoot is all he can do.

The reason I question whether your backcourt can hold together is that you have Stuckey coming off the bench, who likes to have the ball in his hands even more than Holliday and Gordon.  Not to mention that Stuckey will expect to play starter's minutes.

For scoring, I see Gordon and Duncan as the best primary scoring options you have, but at this point in his career Duncan can't really play his best night and night out if he's expected to carry an offensive load.  

Overall, I think your team is pretty good, but I just don't see them being that great offensively, and while I think they'd be pretty solid defensively, I can't imagine how they'd be more than a second tier playoff team.


Here's how I see your scoring working out:


Holliday - 10-12 ppg
Gordon - 18-20 ppg
Deng - 14-15 ppg
Duncan - 10-15 ppg
Monroe - 8-10 ppg

That's 60 - 72 points from your starters a night.  Maybe you could expect a few more points a night from Holliday and Duncan, and you could probably get 10-15 from Stuckey if he played 25+ minutes a night and thrived in that role.  Still, I don't see your team scoring a ton of points unless the bench is really productive.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Anybody would like to criticize a rookie GM and watch him freak out?

Atlanta Army Ants

PG - Rajon Rondo / Marcus Thornton
SG - Marcus Thornton / DeShawn Stevenson
SF - Caron Butler / Terrence Williams
PF - "Big" Al Jefferson / Tyrus Thomas
C  - Andris "Beans" Biedrins / Andray "the new Mo" Blatche

[action781]

Atlantic Division:


3. Celtics -- Lacking in shooting, and I'm not sure about how well that backcourt fits together.  Duncan / Monroe / Gibson could work well, but I think this team might lean a bit too heavily on Duncan to score 15-20 points a night.

Lacking in shooting? Holiday shot 37% last year from 3, Gordon 36%,  Deng 35% and James Jones comes off the bench. I also am not sure how this backcourt doesn't fit well together , Gordon is a scorer who may need the ball in his hands a lot, but Holiday has already succeeded in playing along side a player like that in Iggy. As for scoring, if last years averages hold up, I get close to 53 ppg from the wings and point.

Yeah, I'd say that's a pretty solid shooting team.

[indeedproceed]

Anybody would like to criticize a rookie GM and watch him freak out?

Atlanta Army Ants

PG - Rajon Rondo / Marcus Thornton
SG - Marcus Thornton / DeShawn Stevenson
SF - Caron Butler / Terrence Williams
PF - "Big" Al Jefferson / Tyrus Thomas
C  - Andris "Beans" Biedrins / Andray "the new Mo" Blatche

I would look at starting al Jeff at the 5 next to Ty thomas

[StartOrien]

Who are Denvers transcendent scorers? Johnson just had his worst year in like six years. Must have been pretty content after that fat contract. Do I really have to say anything about Bosh? Neither of those guys D up either. Give me pau and Paul over those two. George hill is a career backup. Is really ready to lead a contender?

Don't forget Nene.