Would "the window" have remained open longer if we'd kept Perk?

[Roy H.]

Even assuming for a moment that last year's team wasn't going to win a championship with or without Perk, is it fair to say that it's left us in a worse position to compete for a title over the next year or two?

Right now, our biggest need is a starting center, or at least a center who is capable of playing 25+ minutes per game.  Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of quality guys who fit that description who will be available for the MLE.  The list is Sam Dalembert, maybe Kwame Brown, and then a whole lot of nothing.  That lack of a center is a gaping hole in our championship chances.

Meanwhile, what did the trade bring us?  Well, Nenad Krstic is gone, and the Clippers pick won't help us next year.  We're left with Jeff Green, a pretty good backup small forward.  The problem?  This is the deepest free agent class for mid-level small forwards in recent memory.  Options on the unrestricted market include:

Andrei Kirilenko
Caron Butler
Tayshaun Prince
Grant Hill
Shane Battier
Ersan Ilyasova
Josh Howard
Mike Dunleavy, Jr.

... with other guys like Rasual Butler, Anthony Parker, Jason Kapono, etc., also available.

Now, arguably, if we somehow end up with Dalembert, we'll be in an equal or better situation to if we never made the Perk trade.  However, if Dalembert signs with Miami or somewhere else and we're forced to sign one of the backup centers, where does that leave us?  Let's project:

Possible lineup without Perk trade:

C:  Perk / JO / ?
PF:  KG / BBD (Bird rights) / draft pick?
SF: Pierce / Kirilenko (MLE)
SG: Ray / Marquis (LLE or trade exception)
PG: Rondo / Delonte (non-Bird rights)

Possible lineup with Perk trade

C:  JO / Kwame (part of MLE)
PF: KG / BBD (Bird rights) / draft pick?
SF: Pierce / Green
SG: Ray / Marquis (LLE or trade exception)
PG: Rondo / Delonte

In my mind, the first team is a contender, but the second one isn't.  That's largely due to me not having any faith in JO, especially after he's talked about retirement.  Perk has proven he can perform in the playoffs, and can be a valuable piece of the rotation.  Guys like Kwame, Nazr Mohammed, etc., simply haven't.

Therefore, I think it's very possible that the trade that was made for "the future" actually handicaps us this season and beyond.  Jeff Green is probably a more valuable player in 2 or 3 years than most of the SF free agents, but my guess is that he doesn't offer anything more than AK47 or Prince or Battier in the short term. 

Time will tell whether it made sense to sacrifice the short term; Jeff Green still has some potential left, and Perk would have earned a big deal that would have cut into cap space.  If Green develops and we use that cap space on an impact player, then long-term the trade will be justifiable.  However, in the short-term, I don't think the trade did much other than to set us back.

[Lucky17]

Roy, you're assuming that Perkins would have resigned with the team next year.

If cap space for the 2012 FA class has been Ainge's plan all along, it's doubtful he would have matched or beaten the offers Perkins would have garnered over this summer.

[KCattheStripe]

Yeah, this entire argument hinges on the idea that Perk was going to come back.

[Chris]

Lets be clear on this though.  This is not about the trade.  This is about resigning Perkins to a longterm deal.  Because even if we didn't make the trade, the question would have been whether they can afford to resign Perk this summer, when he hits the open market.

But, lets assume they could resign him this summer.  I think it would certainly make things a little easier on Danny to put together a contender for another year...but not that much.

It puts them in a position where they have the starting center locked up, but they would still be looking for impact players on the wing to take some of the burden off the Big 3.  

I don't think that necessarily opens the window longer than it currently is...but I do think that it makes it an easier road to complete the roster.

However, I think its a moot point anyways, because I just don't think Danny was going to pay what it would have cost to resign Perk on the open market.

[Chris]

Roy, you're assuming that Perkins would have resigned with the team next year.

If cap space for the 2012 FA class has been Ainge's plan all along, it's doubtful he would have matched or beaten the offers Perkins would have garnered over this summer.

Regardless of cap space in 2012, I just don't think Danny feels Perk is worth the kind of money he would have gotten on the open market.

[StartOrien]

I think you're going to see a lot of KG at the five this year, which would still allow us to alot minutes to AK47 if we were able to strike a deal.

[Who]

They unquestionably would have been in a superior position in 2011/12 if they hadn't made that trade and chose to keep + re-sign Perkins instead.

However, the team's future beyond that point would be in a much worse situation due to Perk's contract and it's effects on the C's cap flexibility.

[Chris]

BTW, I would be more than a little annoyed if my favorite team decided to repeat the Jazz's experiment with Kirilenko at the SF spot.  He just has been so incredibly mediocre there, while he was very good at a PF.

[wdleehi]

Definitely would be in a better position for this upcoming season.

[BballTim]

Yeah, this entire argument hinges on the idea that Perk was going to come back.

  Also on players being available to us at the MLE. If you can't get any of the top 5 on the UFA list then that changes the discussion quite a bit.

[Chris]

I also disagree that the team without Perk isn't a contender.

Obviously, it is putting more pressure on JO being healthy (although we are still counting on him for significant minutes in the Perk scenario as well), but I think this team's chances rely on the other guys much more.

If, Kwame can give them something similar to what he gave Charlotte last year, and Green makes even small improvements, I actually think that second option is pretty even with the one with Perk, and potentially significantly better depending on JO's health and Green's development.

[Who]

BTW, I would be more than a little annoyed if my favorite team decided to repeat the Jazz's experiment with Kirilenko at the SF spot.  He just has been so incredibly mediocre there, while he was very good at a PF.

A.Kirilenko (PF) would be great in Phoenix alongside Marcin Gortat (C). Channing Frye (PF) and Robin Lopez (C) as backup bigs. That is a nice big man rotation for Phoenix.

The Suns have some good quality on the perimeter with S.Nash, J.Dudley, G.Hill and M.Pietrus. Throw in a backup guard (re-sign A.Brooks?) and add their draft pick (#13) into the mix and they should be a pretty solid playoff caliber team.

[rondohondo]

yea I don't see how signing a slow, unathletic, injury prone big man to a long term contract  would have made us better in the future. Especially when you have to resign him to around 9 mil a year .

I much rather have Green who fits much better with Rondo, the clippers pick in a supposedly deep draft and a boatload of cap space for 2012 .

I think that Kwame , Mohammed or someone like that can easily play Perks mins and contribute about as much as Perk did with the C's . Plus as others have mentioned on here, I see KG playing more Center position this year. This will allow the C's to get out on the fast break too, where Rondo is so deadly. There aren't a whole lot of bulky centers in the league. Howard, Bynum and Bogut are probably the only big Centers that KG can't cover

[mgent]

I think positively yes.  Perk isnt' the ultimate championship piece, but he was perfect with KG and the rest of our team.  He wasn't great, our team was great.  That's why we extended the original 3 year window and didn't trade Ray at the deadline (and eventually resigned him and Pierce), because our starting 5 never lost a playoff series.  That was the reason it was worth it to keep that squad together until one of them died of old age.

Danny chickened out half way through (a year later).  He turned a never lost a playoff series team into 3 old guys, a guy that can't shoot, and a C.  There's none of that camaraderie of guys that won together.

I also noticed the irony a weeks ago that we went 3 straight off-seasons without covering up the gaping hole we had at SF, and now that we do it's the year of SFs in free agency.  I think it sucks, everybody would take Perk and one of the FAs you listed over Jeff Green and one of the loser centers available.

[FrDrake]

Perk wasn't going to guard Lebron and Wade when they were making all those ridiculous threes in round two this year, so I don't think he would have helped the Cs out much in this year's playoffs.

I do agree that with Perk the Cs are more of a contender, but I think OKC (or another team) would have used cap space to offer him more than the Danny could have to retain him.  Which means they were losing him one way or another.

I still hate the trade and hope DA flips Jeff Green to some dumb GM like Kahn or whoever is running the Cavs.  I'd take Varejao for Green for example.