Author Topic: KG's career = overrated not a franchise player not a true #1 deal with it?  (Read 17697 times)

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Offline drza44

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Pierce made 1 of 14 shots, drew 3 shooting fouls, and was fouled intentionally 9 times at the end of close games.

Just to quibble, but not all non-shooting fouls are intentional fouls at the end of games.  If a guy's attacking the defense and his team is in the bonus, that's a drawn foul, without necessarily being a shot attempt.

True, and that's a good point.  On the other hand, I remember explicitly that in game 5 of the series against the Cavs, they started intentionally fouling with about a minute left and sent Pierce to the line at least 3 or 4 times (note: I looked it up, they intentionally fouled him 4 times in the last 1:05, though for one of them the Cs were already up 6 so that doesn't count as "clutch" by 82games' standard) which would account for 6 of those clutch FTs made.  And because Rondo wasn't a FT shooter, when teams were looking to foul late usually the Cs let Pierce be the main ball-handler which also supports that most of those non-shooting foul FT attempts were from intentionals to extend games.  

On the flip side, I actually rounded up for Pierce because he has an odd # of FT attempts, so either he got fouled in crunch-time shooting a 3-ptr (which I don't remember), he got to shoot a technical FT (possible, but seems like that'd be Ray shooting in crunchtime) or one of his shooting fouls was an and-1 (probably most likely).  If the latter, then Pierce really only generated points (outside of possible non-shooting/non-intentional fouls in the penalty) in 3 of 16 attempts.

Either way, the point stands that KG was the one doing the most scoring and doing it most efficiently in crunchtime for the '08 Celtics on their championship run.  And really, it wasn't particularly close.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2011, 03:33:12 PM by drza44 »

Offline Chris

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When the Spurs won their first title TD was the main guy for the Spurs down the stretch in close games. He made a ton of key plays and was a go-to guy when they needed hoops.

Similarly, when the Spurs won their first title KG was the main guy for the Celtics down the stretch in close games.  He made a ton of key plays and was a go-to guy when they needed hoops.

I disagree with this.  Pierce was much more the go-to guy for the C's.  

  If you look at their "clutch" scoring in those playoffs from 82games, PP scored a total of 27 points in those late game situations compared to 24 for KG (and 20 for Ray). Pretty close all around.

RE: The "closer" for the 2008 Celtics. You can take it further, though.  If you look closely at the 82games.com crunch-time data, you can see HOW those points were scored.  To whit, in crunchtime during the 2007-08 playoffs:

KG made 9 of 21 shots, drew 3 shooting fouls, and was fouled twice intentionally at the end of close games.  He also had 0 assists and 1 turnover total in those minutes.

Ray made 5 of 15 shots, drew 2 shooting fouls, and was fouled twice intentionally at the end of close games.  He also had 3 assists and 1 TO.

Pierce made 1 of 14 shots, drew 3 shooting fouls, and was fouled intentionally 9 times at the end of close games.  He also had 4 assists and 6 TOs.

So while Pierce, to his credit, did a great job making those intentional foul shots to close the game, you'd be missing the forest for the trees to think he was the main scorer at crunch time in those playoffs.  You can make the case that he was more of the offense initiator than KG, and I can buy that, but when the Celtics actually went to Pierce to shoot at crunch time, he made only 1 out of his 14 shots.  If you include the 3 times he got fouled, Pierce generated a bucket 4 times in 17 attempts.  Meanwhile, if you include the times he drew fouls, Garnett generated a bucket 12 times in 24 attempts at crunchtime.  

I don't care how much people dislike stats, this is a case where it's an open-and-shut case.  When the 2007-08 Celtics needed points in crunchtime during their playoff championship run, Garnett was who they went to most often to score and he was also the one that delivered much more consistently.  If there were a "closer" for the 2007-08 championship Celtics, it was Garnett or it was nobody.



Can you link the stats?

I'll link to their 82games pages, but you'd have to do a bit of math from there to get the exact numbers I posted.  But I can describe how I did it.  First, here are the "clutch" player cards for:

KG - http://www.82games.com/0708/playoffs/07BOS9E.HTM
Pierce - http://www.82games.com/0708/playoffs/07BOS6E.HTM
Ray - http://www.82games.com/0708/playoffs/07BOS5E.HTM

If you follow those links you'll find all the info you need to get the numbers I did, but it's not completely straight-forward because 82games.com calculated their main stats per-48 minutes without telling us exactly how many crunch minutes were played.  But, here are some of the things you can look at to figure out the exact breakdown:

1) Under the "Free throw shooting and foul drawing" category, they list the actual total values for free throws made, free throws attempted, field goals attempted (including the times a player was fouled when shooting), and 'fouled' which counts how many times the player was fouled while shooting.

2) Similarly, in the "Passing Stats", "Rebounding", "Shot-blocking" and "Turnovers" sub-categories they also give the actual total numbers in there for assists, defensive rebounds, offensive rebounds, shots blocked, and TOs.

3) Once you have the total #s, the per-48 #s and the percentages, all it takes is some algebra to determine any info that I listed that isn't readily spelled out on the page.  I just made an Excel spreadsheet to do the math for me.  

Interesting.  Although, I don't consider the only relevant data to be less than 5 minutes left and no team leading by more than 5 points.  Many of these games are won in the first 6 minutes of the 4th quarter, and many of the most important possessions happen when a team is up 6 points, and you need a big point to either pull closer, or open it up. 

So, once again, I will go with what my eyes told me, and that was that the ball was in the hands of Pierce, and he was the one who initiated the offense and made things happen down the stretch of games.

KG had some big shots, but they did not run the ball through him the way the Spurs run it through Duncan.

Offline Fafnir

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KG had some big shots, but they did not run the ball through him the way the Spurs run it through Duncan.
I disagree with that, they ran the ball through KG/PP almost exclusively to initiate the offense overall. I'd be shocked if they didn't have essentially equal touches overall in the playoffs.

It really hurt Ray's game to try and play off of those two the first year, and I remember Ray saying as much.

Offline drza44

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When the Spurs won their first title TD was the main guy for the Spurs down the stretch in close games. He made a ton of key plays and was a go-to guy when they needed hoops.

Similarly, when the Spurs won their first title KG was the main guy for the Celtics down the stretch in close games.  He made a ton of key plays and was a go-to guy when they needed hoops.

I disagree with this.  Pierce was much more the go-to guy for the C's.  

  If you look at their "clutch" scoring in those playoffs from 82games, PP scored a total of 27 points in those late game situations compared to 24 for KG (and 20 for Ray). Pretty close all around.

RE: The "closer" for the 2008 Celtics. You can take it further, though.  If you look closely at the 82games.com crunch-time data, you can see HOW those points were scored.  To whit, in crunchtime during the 2007-08 playoffs:

KG made 9 of 21 shots, drew 3 shooting fouls, and was fouled twice intentionally at the end of close games.  He also had 0 assists and 1 turnover total in those minutes.

Ray made 5 of 15 shots, drew 2 shooting fouls, and was fouled twice intentionally at the end of close games.  He also had 3 assists and 1 TO.

Pierce made 1 of 14 shots, drew 3 shooting fouls, and was fouled intentionally 9 times at the end of close games.  He also had 4 assists and 6 TOs.

So while Pierce, to his credit, did a great job making those intentional foul shots to close the game, you'd be missing the forest for the trees to think he was the main scorer at crunch time in those playoffs.  You can make the case that he was more of the offense initiator than KG, and I can buy that, but when the Celtics actually went to Pierce to shoot at crunch time, he made only 1 out of his 14 shots.  If you include the 3 times he got fouled, Pierce generated a bucket 4 times in 17 attempts.  Meanwhile, if you include the times he drew fouls, Garnett generated a bucket 12 times in 24 attempts at crunchtime.  

I don't care how much people dislike stats, this is a case where it's an open-and-shut case.  When the 2007-08 Celtics needed points in crunchtime during their playoff championship run, Garnett was who they went to most often to score and he was also the one that delivered much more consistently.  If there were a "closer" for the 2007-08 championship Celtics, it was Garnett or it was nobody.



Can you link the stats?

I'll link to their 82games pages, but you'd have to do a bit of math from there to get the exact numbers I posted.  But I can describe how I did it.  First, here are the "clutch" player cards for:

KG - http://www.82games.com/0708/playoffs/07BOS9E.HTM
Pierce - http://www.82games.com/0708/playoffs/07BOS6E.HTM
Ray - http://www.82games.com/0708/playoffs/07BOS5E.HTM

If you follow those links you'll find all the info you need to get the numbers I did, but it's not completely straight-forward because 82games.com calculated their main stats per-48 minutes without telling us exactly how many crunch minutes were played.  But, here are some of the things you can look at to figure out the exact breakdown:

1) Under the "Free throw shooting and foul drawing" category, they list the actual total values for free throws made, free throws attempted, field goals attempted (including the times a player was fouled when shooting), and 'fouled' which counts how many times the player was fouled while shooting.

2) Similarly, in the "Passing Stats", "Rebounding", "Shot-blocking" and "Turnovers" sub-categories they also give the actual total numbers in there for assists, defensive rebounds, offensive rebounds, shots blocked, and TOs.

3) Once you have the total #s, the per-48 #s and the percentages, all it takes is some algebra to determine any info that I listed that isn't readily spelled out on the page.  I just made an Excel spreadsheet to do the math for me.  

Interesting.  Although, I don't consider the only relevant data to be less than 5 minutes left and no team leading by more than 5 points.  Many of these games are won in the first 6 minutes of the 4th quarter, and many of the most important possessions happen when a team is up 6 points, and you need a big point to either pull closer, or open it up. 

So, once again, I will go with what my eyes told me, and that was that the ball was in the hands of Pierce, and he was the one who initiated the offense and made things happen down the stretch of games.

KG had some big shots, but they did not run the ball through him the way the Spurs run it through Duncan.

This line of logic just puzzles me.  I can't understand it.  I know that sometimes people can manipulate stats to say something they don't, but in this case I can't even see how this is controversial.

KG was the leading scorer for the Celtics in the playoffs, slightly over Pierce.

KG was the leading 4th quarter scorer for the Celtics in the playoffs, by a larger margin.

KG was the one taking and making the most buckets down the stretch when the Celtics needed offense in close games, this time by a pretty significant margin.

You say that sometimes the first half of the 4th quarter is more important, but KG was still led the Celtics in 4th quarter scoring outside of the 82games-defined "clutch" time period.

I mean, at some point facts are facts.  Pierce is an outstanding player.  It doesn't make him any less of an outstanding player that during the championship run KG was the leading scorer both early and late.  I mean, it's actually what happened.  I don't understand how you can just ignore that.

Oh, and about Duncan, more of the lying stats that you don't believe in, but people have taken a pretty comprehensive look at how both Garnett and Duncan have performed in crunch-time in the 9 years since the data is available.  It may not convince you in any way, but for those that are curious: http://www.backpicks.com/2011/01/10/the-nbas-best-players-in-the-clutch-since-2003/

The money quote: "A criticism often volleyed toward Kevin Garnett is his reluctance to take over games down the stretch. Of course, most bigs are hampered by this. And, with regards to his chief rival, Tim Duncan, KG’s clutch performance is quite similar. He’s nearly identical with TD over the last 8+ seasons, and outperformed him in his 3-year peak. Garnett actually shot it 21% more in his three-year peak (18.0 FGA’s per 36, 618 minute sample) than Duncan did in his (14.9 FGA’s per 36, 473 minute sample)."

Garnett isn't crunch-time Jordan, or even Dirk as a scorer.  That's not his skill nor his role, and that's fine.  But I've never seen any player for which more people just DECIDED what was true about him, and no amount of facts will ever dissuade them from that opinion.  Folks have decided that KG isn't clutch, that he isn't a "real" #1 option, and that he can't be the main scorer on a champion.  No matter what the actual facts say.

 

Offline barefacedmonk

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But I've never seen any player for which more people just DECIDED what was true about him, and no amount of facts will ever dissuade them from that opinion.

That's the second money quote in your post. TP.
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Offline Chris

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But I've never seen any player for which more people just DECIDED what was true about him, and no amount of facts will ever dissuade them from that opinion.

That's the second money quote in your post. TP.

My problem with this quote is that stats are not "facts", they are data that can be used to support or contest a theory. 

Offline Fafnir

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But I've never seen any player for which more people just DECIDED what was true about him, and no amount of facts will ever dissuade them from that opinion.

That's the second money quote in your post. TP.

My problem with this quote is that stats are not "facts", they are data that can be used to support or contest a theory. 
Huh?

Stats are data, and they are also facts unless they are flatly inaccurate. What conclusions or theories you form based on them is the issue.

Offline thirstyboots18

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I always have trouble with the term "franchise player".  To me, that means a great, exciting player who can put fans in the seats.  That is what KG was in Minnesota.   Franchise players can not win championships only teams can do that.
You really need a full complement of very good players who each knows his role and can fill his role, together with competent backup players and a good coach.  Sometimes even that is not enough...luck plays a major part also, regarding injuries and health.

Charles Barkley was, and Kevin Durant is, a "franchise player" and neither has won anything...but they made their teams exciting and profitable anyway.
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Offline OsirusCeltics

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Didn't Doc basically say that year that whenever they needed a bucket late in the game their go to was feeding KG down low?

Pierce is known for being a crunch time player and I find it very hard to believe that people aren't just ASSUMING that it was Pierce who led the team in offense and crunch time during those playoffs.

The facts say that KG led the team in 4th quarter scoring. I guess you can try and spin it however you want and say "well he scored all his points in the first half of the 4th quarter" whatever  it's just ridiculous.

It appears people are trained to believe that KG isn't clutch and wasn't a big time scorer or NUmber 1 on this team. For people that are fans of the Celtics and KG what were you watching in 08? What have you been watching since? KG has been pretty dominant his entire career here and his first couple years he was pretty dominant on offense. He's hit game winners and several big, big shots not to mention the defense

Have to realize it is the playoffs. When the game slows down and every possesion counts, teams start going in the post. In this case, it was KG as the Celtic's primary post player

But when Celtics needed a shot creator when the offense went stagnant, they went to Paul and he delivered. And theres no doubt how many times they went to Ray. All three had the lions share of being the closer, nothing really clear cut