Trade Idea: Rondo to Utah

[Chris]

Actually, I will just assume you are referring to Hollinger's Rebounding Rate.  Where Rondo is tied for 4th among PGs at 7.2, and Rose and Williams are 18th and 19th at 6.3 and 6.2.

This is an interesting stat, but once again, I don't think it takes into account the guys these guys were playing with.

Rondo was playing on a team that really struggled to rebound.  Other than KG, they had no other above average rebounders (and KG is certainly not at the top of the league), and this left a lot of extra rebounds for Rondo to grab.  Rose on the other hand played with Noah and Boozer, two consistently excellent rebounders, as well as several other very strong rebounders in Asik, Gibson, and Deng.

Williams had a similar situation, where he spent half of the season with Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap gobbling up all of the rebounds, and then spent the second half with Kris Humphries, who was on a mission to get paid and averaged more rebounds in the month of March than KG and any of the C's centers combined (14..  So, there just were not as many rebounds available to grab.

Furthermore, when you look into the stats more closely, particularly compared with Williams, you see that Rondo's rebounding rate is largely so high because of an inordinately high number of offensive rebounds.  Williams actually has a higher defensive rebounding rate than Rondo, and I would argue that Rondo's offensive rebounds can be directly attributed to defenses completely ignoring him due to his ineffectiveness offensively, rather than him actually being a superior rebounder.

[Fafnir]

Utah was a worse defensive rebounding team than the Celtics Chris (the Jazz were near bottom of the league), so were the Nets. There were more defensive boards available for Deron Williams.

The Bulls are a better defensive rebounding team than Boston, so Rose would have less opportunities than Rondo.

[Chris]

I hate stats.  So, instead, I am going to used completely arbitrary ratings of skills from 1-10, based purely on my own, unprofessional opinion, from watching these guys play.

In these ratings, 10 is best in the league at the position, 5 is average for their position, 0 is Scalabrine.

Passing: Rondo - 10, Rose - 6, Paul - 8, Williams - 9
Defense: Rondo - 9, Rose - 6, Paul - 8, Williams - 8
Long range shooting: Rondo - 3, Rose - 6, Paul - 8, Williams - 7
Mid range shooting: Rondo - 4, Rose - 7, Paul - 10, Williams - 8
Finishing at the basket: Rondo - 6, Rose 10, Paul -8, Williams - 8
Rebounding: Rondo - 8, Rose - 8, Paul - 8, Williams - 7 (yes, they are all excellent rebounders)

So, here are their averages: Rondo - 6.7, Rose - 7.2, Paul - 8.3, Williams - 7.8

And that is my completely biased and unscientific way of explaining why I will take the more complete games of Paul and Williams over Rondo's any day.

I think you down played Paul's passing.  Alot of assist, little TOs.

Good point.  I was just trying to give in to a little homerism there, and not blow Rondo that far out of the water.

  Rose and Williams aren't excellent rebounders. Rondo's career rate is about 35%-45% better than those two. Rondo probably has the highest fg% at the basket of the 4 players over the last 3 years as well. I'd also rate Williams the worst defender.

Again, I hate stats.  I stand by my analysis.

  Ok, they're your ratings. But something closer to the stats would probably put Rondo close to or in second instead of fourth. Hence the difference in our opinions of Rondo.

The problem with stats is they are highly influenced by the team the guys are playing on (particularly assists and defensive stats).  They also involve heavy interpretation by the people looking at them.

You look at the stats and think they make your case, and I look at the exact same stats, and feel that they make my case.  

  Interesting take. I agree stats are influenced by teams and interpretations. But if you have stats that make your case I would generally expect that they don't make my case and I'd have to show why they *didn't* make your case. For instance, the rebounds. If Rondo gets 35% or so more rebounds than Deron or Rose, or if Rondo's 3rd or so in rebounding for pgs and they're down around 20th, how would that make your case that they're all excellent rebounders? I'd think you'd have to refute the stats somehow, show that they don't make either case.

Can you give me the exact stats you are referring to?  I can't refute vague allusions to stats.

  Here's a link to their career stats,where Rondo's rebounding numbers are clearly better in terms of rebound% or rebounds per game. I don't think it's really worth your time, but I didn't want to not provide stats I claimed to have. I think I took your statement "You look at the stats and think they make your case, and I look at the exact same stats, and feel that they make my case" a little too literally.

http://bkref.com/tiny/hkS3h

You did take my statment too litterally.  And you are right, I can't spin those stats (beyond what I said in my last post).

And honestly, I will even give you the argument that Rondo is a better rebounder than those two...but I still argue it is MUCH closer than you suggest, and the teams they are playing on, and the roles the players have have been a big reason why the stats don't back it up.  

I guess I am just an oldschool guy when it comes to things like this.  I watch Williams and Rose (and especially Paul), and I see, much like Rondo, they get the rebounds when they need to.  

I know there has been a lot of bashing Rondo going on, and I think that is completely unneccessary for this argument.  But I just think you are dramatically underrating how good Williams and Paul are overall (I am not as sold on Rose myself).  These are guys who have carried incredibly mediocre teams to excellent records, and deep into the playoffs.  

I think Rondo is a very good player, but he just is not on their level.  

I look at it like this.  Rondo is to Paul and Williams as Andrew Bogut is to Dwight Howard.  Both are very good players, but there is just that other level that the superstars have.

[Chris]

Utah was a worse defensive rebounding team than the Celtics Chris (the Jazz were near bottom of the league), so were the Nets. There were more defensive boards available for Deron Williams.

The Bulls are a better defensive rebounding team than Boston, so Rose would have less opportunities than Rondo.

Stop using rationality and facts to ruin my spin!

[Fafnir]

Utah was a worse defensive rebounding team than the Celtics Chris (the Jazz were near bottom of the league), so were the Nets. There were more defensive boards available for Deron Williams.

The Bulls are a better defensive rebounding team than Boston, so Rose would have less opportunities than Rondo.

Stop using rationality and facts to ruin my spin!

I do think you're right about the offensive boards, the defensive strategy of doubling/helping/playing off Rondo allows him more space to attack the offensive glass.

The rebounding issue is kinda small in my evaluation of point guards. Rondo has shown a knack for it in the playoffs but overall its an area of small important for a PG.

[Chris]

Utah was a worse defensive rebounding team than the Celtics Chris (the Jazz were near bottom of the league), so were the Nets. There were more defensive boards available for Deron Williams.

The Bulls are a better defensive rebounding team than Boston, so Rose would have less opportunities than Rondo.

Stop using rationality and facts to ruin my spin!

I do think you're right about the offensive boards, the defensive strategy of doubling/helping/playing off Rondo allows him more space to attack the offensive glass.

The rebounding issue is kinda small in my evaluation of point guards. Rondo has shown a knack for it in the playoffs but overall its an area of small important for a PG.

Agreed.  The rebounding is incredibly minor.  Its a nice bonus, but probably the last skill I look at when analyzing PGs.

BTW, speaking of fun statistics, this year, Rondo had the 16th highest PER among PGs.  Guess who was number 15...

You guessed it, Devin Harris!

[Fafnir]

Utah was a worse defensive rebounding team than the Celtics Chris (the Jazz were near bottom of the league), so were the Nets. There were more defensive boards available for Deron Williams.

The Bulls are a better defensive rebounding team than Boston, so Rose would have less opportunities than Rondo.

Stop using rationality and facts to ruin my spin!

I do think you're right about the offensive boards, the defensive strategy of doubling/helping/playing off Rondo allows him more space to attack the offensive glass.

The rebounding issue is kinda small in my evaluation of point guards. Rondo has shown a knack for it in the playoffs but overall its an area of small important for a PG.

Agreed.  The rebounding is incredibly minor.  Its a nice bonus, but probably the last skill I look at when analyzing PGs.

What I will say is that the way Rondo uses his reboudning has great meaning to me. He uses it to attack when he's being ignored and control the flow of the game's pace.

That's an important mental attribute for a PG, they need to be able to take control of a game's flow/pace.

[soap07]

Deron Williams isn't just a better shooter/scorer than Rondo. He's also a better passer.

I'm surprised this is still a debate as to whether Rondo is better than Deron or not. It's not really all that close. Paul, Williams and Rose are the top tier of point guards by a wide margin, IMO.

Yeah, Rondo may be a marginally better rebounder than Deron (Who cares when Williams so much more in the relevant skills for a point guard?) and a slightly better defender. Again, Deron is vastly superior offensively, so much so, that it negates the slight decrease in defense/rebounding.

[BballTim]

You did take my statment too litterally.  And you are right, I can't spin those stats (beyond what I said in my last post).

  Going back to my question, I'd characterize your "spin" not as saying "these stats back up my point", more like saying "these stats don't back up either case". Not that it matters...

And honestly, I will even give you the argument that Rondo is a better rebounder than those two...but I still argue it is MUCH closer than you suggest, and the teams they are playing on, and the roles the players have have been a big reason why the stats don't back it up.  

I guess I am just an oldschool guy when it comes to things like this.  I watch Williams and Rose (and especially Paul), and I see, much like Rondo, they get the rebounds when they need to.  

  I would honestly argue that it isn't nearly as close as the numbers suggest. Rondo can get you 10 boards a game in a 7 game playoff series with the league leading rebounder on the other team. You'd be hard pressed to convince me that Williams or Rose are capable of anything approaching that.

I know there has been a lot of bashing Rondo going on, and I think that is completely unneccessary for this argument.  But I just think you are dramatically underrating how good Williams and Paul are overall (I am not as sold on Rose myself).  These are guys who have carried incredibly mediocre teams to excellent records, and deep into the playoffs.  

  From your point of view I'm probably underestimating Williams more than Paul. On the other hand you're claiming that they're virtually equal in areas where many people (and those hated stats) would show Rondo to be clearly superior to Deron. I'd say we're both somewhat guilty of having biased opinions on the matter.

[StartOrien]

Deron Williams isn't just a better shooter/scorer than Rondo. He's also a better passer.

Only knock there is that he can make some pretty poor decisions in transition. I wouldn't say that he's a better passer than Rondo.

[soap07]

Deron Williams isn't just a better shooter/scorer than Rondo. He's also a better passer.

Only knock there is that he can make some pretty poor decisions in transition. I wouldn't say that he's a better passer than Rondo.

One guy has averaged 10 APG for four straight years (the fifth year, he averaged 9.3). Rondo has reached that once (this season, 11.2) and came close last year (9.8 ). One guy has a career 38% assists percentage (Rondo). Deron's is 42.2, and this is all while never playing with the shooters/scorers around him that Rondo did.

Last year, Utah's offense was top 10, whereas Boston's was 13th (2009-2010).

The year before, Boston's was 6th, Utah was 9th.

The championship season - Boston's offense was 12th - Utah was 5th.

I don't see any evidence that Rondo for his career has been a better passer than Deron.

[timfiore]

THE UNDER KANTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BballTim]

Deron Williams isn't just a better shooter/scorer than Rondo. He's also a better passer.

Only knock there is that he can make some pretty poor decisions in transition. I wouldn't say that he's a better passer than Rondo.

One guy has averaged 10 APG for four straight years (the fifth year, he averaged 9.3). Rondo has reached that once (this season, 11.2) and came close last year (9.8 ). One guy has a career 38% assists percentage (Rondo). Deron's is 42.2, and this is all while never playing with the shooters/scorers around him that Rondo did.

Last year, Utah's offense was top 10, whereas Boston's was 13th (2009-2010).

The year before, Boston's was 6th, Utah was 9th.

The championship season - Boston's offense was 12th - Utah was 5th.

I don't see any evidence that Rondo for his career has been a better passer than Deron.

  Arguing that Williams has been a better passer over his career and is a better passer now are two different things. Deron developed faster than Rondo (unsurprising considering their draft positions) and Rondo was playing with players that control the ball more than anyone on Utah ever did.

[StartOrien]

Deron Williams isn't just a better shooter/scorer than Rondo. He's also a better passer.

Only knock there is that he can make some pretty poor decisions in transition. I wouldn't say that he's a better passer than Rondo.

One guy has averaged 10 APG for four straight years (the fifth year, he averaged 9.3). Rondo has reached that once (this season, 11.2) and came close last year (9.8 ). One guy has a career 38% assists percentage (Rondo). Deron's is 42.2, and this is all while never playing with the shooters/scorers around him that Rondo did.

Last year, Utah's offense was top 10, whereas Boston's was 13th (2009-2010).

The year before, Boston's was 6th, Utah was 9th.

The championship season - Boston's offense was 12th - Utah was 5th.

I don't see any evidence that Rondo for his career has been a better passer than Deron.

http://nbaplaybook.com/2011/02/25/what-avery-johnson-should-do-with-deron-williams/

[soap07]

  Arguing that Williams has been a better passer over his career and is a better passer now are two different things. Deron developed faster than Rondo (unsurprising considering their draft positions) and Rondo was playing with players that control the ball more than anyone on Utah ever did.

Okay, well, I suppose it's easy to cherry pick one year out of the last five to say that Rondo is a better passer. Although, even in this year, Deron averaged nearly 13 assists a game with a GARBAGE Nets team. And even this year, his assists percentage was higher than Rondo's.  And even this year, Utah's offense, which Deron ran for the vast majority of the season, was better than the C's offense.