Author Topic: Does this year's playoffs show that Rondo is (at least) on par with Rose?  (Read 29282 times)

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Offline indeedproceed

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 When Rondo was a rookie the Celts defense was 8.3 points better with him on the court and he led the league in steal%. His numbers in that rookie year (from 82games) look to be somewhat better than Rose's rookie year on a playoff team.


Rondo's rookie DWS: 2.6 (career low)

Rose's rookie DWS: 1.5 (career low)

I'm not debating that Rondo is not a better defender than Derrick Rose, what I'm saying is that both of them have good to great defensive numbers, and they owe a low of that because they have good to great defensive backstops behind them.

The tied for the lead in defensive win shares, and Rondo led all point guards with his DRtg.

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Offline Fan from VT

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As long as we are throwing numbers out there, the Bulls defense this past year was a full 7.7 points per 100 possessions BETTER on defense when Rose SAT.

Offline indeedproceed

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As long as we are throwing numbers out there, the Bulls defense this past year was a full 7.7 points per 100 possessions BETTER on defense when Rose SAT.

I wish they gave context to those numbers. Rose played 81 games for 37 minutes a game. That means that against every good team, at every competitive moment, Rose was out there. I wonder how many of those 900 minutes Rose didn't play were in garbage time, when a Bulls' win was already easily assured.

On top of that, how much of that time was spent with Boozer at the 4 (probably the Bulls' worst starter defensively) with Rose out there, compared to how often Boozer was out there without Rose?

Those on/off stats to me are a bit too heavy handed.

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Offline ManUp

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To answer the OP. No, this was probably Rondo's least impressive play-off run outside of 08. Rose if anything has separated himself from Rondo in the way he's lead his team all season. I don't think Rose is even half the play-maker or distributor Rondo is, but Rondo isn't anywhere near Rose in terms of scoring ability. In the Rose vs Rondo debate as to who is the better player right now you can't real argue against Rose. Until Rondo shows that his play making ability can elevate his team to the same level that Rose's scoring has the Bulls there's really no other choice, in my mind.

Offline snively

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I thought Rose was a beast defensively against isoing PGs.  Too quick, strong and long for his opponents.  I thought his competitiveness in other areas was lacking, especially when switched on to bigger guards. Definitely lacked Rondo's aggression.
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Offline soap07

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I am guilty of posting numbers from mid-January, but the numbers at the season still show that Rose is among the best defensive point guards in the league.  The reason I prefer Rose over Rondo strictly defensively because Rose, at least, this year rarely took a night off from playing D, where there were many nights when Rondo's defense was suspect...when his position wasn't great, when he would gamble needlessly.

Quote
As long as we are throwing numbers out there, the Bulls defense this past year was a full 7.7 points per 100 possessions BETTER on defense when Rose SAT.

Yeah, because the roughly 10 minutes a game when Rose wasn't playing is more indicative of Rose's defensive abilities than the 38 minutes he did.

Offline snively

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To answer the OP. No, this was probably Rondo's least impressive play-off run outside of 08. Rose if anything has separated himself from Rondo in the way he's lead his team all season. I don't think Rose is even half the play-maker or distributor Rondo is, but Rondo isn't anywhere near Rose in terms of scoring ability. In the Rose vs Rondo debate as to who is the better player right now you can't real argue against Rose. Until Rondo shows that his play making ability can elevate his team to the same level that Rose's scoring has the Bulls there's really no other choice, in my mind.

Rondo was in fine form before the injury. Was averaging something like 18ppg, 7rpg and 11apg: dominant.

Rose had a great season, but don't give him too much credit.  Chicago's success primarily derived from their defensive excellence.  Deng, Noah, Brewer, Bogans, Asik, Gibson gave Chicago a great rotation of long, aggressive and energetic defensive players who stifled offenses and vacuumed the boards. 
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Offline soap07

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Rose had a great season, but don't give him too much credit.  Chicago's success primarily derived from their defensive excellence.  Deng, Noah, Brewer, Bogans, Asik, Gibson gave Chicago a great rotation of long, aggressive and energetic defensive players who stifled offenses and vacuumed the boards.

You realize that Rose was a big part of that defensive excellence right? That's part of the reason he had such a great season.

Offline BballTim

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 When Rondo was a rookie the Celts defense was 8.3 points better with him on the court and he led the league in steal%. His numbers in that rookie year (from 82games) look to be somewhat better than Rose's rookie year on a playoff team.


Rondo's rookie DWS: 2.6 (career low)

Rose's rookie DWS: 1.5 (career low)

I'm not debating that Rondo is not a better defender than Derrick Rose, what I'm saying is that both of them have good to great defensive numbers, and they owe a low of that because they have good to great defensive backstops behind them.

The tied for the lead in defensive win shares, and Rondo led all point guards with his DRtg.

  First of all, having a career low (for your first 4-5 seasons) in DWS in your rookie year Is far more common than you seem to think. Secondly, defensive win shares accumulate over time while DRtg doesn't. If you play the good defense for 500 minutes and play equally good defense for 500 more your DRtg will remain unchanged but your DWS will double. If Rondo and Rose had the same number of DWS and Rose played 20% more minutes, Rondo's DWS numbers are 20% better than Rose's.

  In terms of DWS Rondo's numbers aren't just good, they're historically good.

Offline BballTim

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I am guilty of posting numbers from mid-January, but the numbers at the season still show that Rose is among the best defensive point guards in the league.  The reason I prefer Rose over Rondo strictly defensively because Rose, at least, this year rarely took a night off from playing D, where there were many nights when Rondo's defense was suspect...when his position wasn't great, when he would gamble needlessly.

Quote
As long as we are throwing numbers out there, the Bulls defense this past year was a full 7.7 points per 100 possessions BETTER on defense when Rose SAT.

Yeah, because the roughly 10 minutes a game when Rose wasn't playing is more indicative of Rose's defensive abilities than the 38 minutes he did.


  When you're comparing Rose to Rondo you need to consider that Rondo was far less healthy than Rose this year, that probably had a lot to do with Rondo "taking nights off". Secondly, Chicago's backup pg is probably better defensively than Rose.

Offline indeedproceed

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 When Rondo was a rookie the Celts defense was 8.3 points better with him on the court and he led the league in steal%. His numbers in that rookie year (from 82games) look to be somewhat better than Rose's rookie year on a playoff team.


Rondo's rookie DWS: 2.6 (career low)

Rose's rookie DWS: 1.5 (career low)

I'm not debating that Rondo is not a better defender than Derrick Rose, what I'm saying is that both of them have good to great defensive numbers, and they owe a low of that because they have good to great defensive backstops behind them.

The tied for the lead in defensive win shares, and Rondo led all point guards with his DRtg.

  First of all, having a career low (for your first 4-5 seasons) in DWS in your rookie year Is far more common than you seem to think.

Then I've miscommunicated. I think it is extremely common. They're rookies, they're supposed to be bad.

Quote
Secondly, defensive win shares accumulate over time while DRtg doesn't. If you play the good defense for 500 minutes and play equally good defense for 500 more your DRtg will remain unchanged but your DWS will double. If Rondo and Rose had the same number of DWS and Rose played 20% more minutes, Rondo's DWS numbers are 20% better than Rose's.

  In terms of DWS Rondo's numbers aren't just good, they're historically good.


You have actually taught me something about win shares there. I didn't really know much about them, so you got me reading up to debate them. That's gonna come in handy this summer during the CB Draft.

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Offline soap07

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I am guilty of posting numbers from mid-January, but the numbers at the season still show that Rose is among the best defensive point guards in the league.  The reason I prefer Rose over Rondo strictly defensively because Rose, at least, this year rarely took a night off from playing D, where there were many nights when Rondo's defense was suspect...when his position wasn't great, when he would gamble needlessly.

Quote
As long as we are throwing numbers out there, the Bulls defense this past year was a full 7.7 points per 100 possessions BETTER on defense when Rose SAT.

Yeah, because the roughly 10 minutes a game when Rose wasn't playing is more indicative of Rose's defensive abilities than the 38 minutes he did.


  When you're comparing Rose to Rondo you need to consider that Rondo was far less healthy than Rose this year, that probably had a lot to do with Rondo "taking nights off". Secondly, Chicago's backup pg is probably better defensively than Rose.


Maybe - but this has been a problem with Rondo a couple years, that his defensive focus is sometimes lacking.

And secondly, CJ Watson is not a better defender than Rose.

Offline snively

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Rose had a great season, but don't give him too much credit.  Chicago's success primarily derived from their defensive excellence.  Deng, Noah, Brewer, Bogans, Asik, Gibson gave Chicago a great rotation of long, aggressive and energetic defensive players who stifled offenses and vacuumed the boards.

You realize that Rose was a big part of that defensive excellence right? That's part of the reason he had such a great season.

Rose is a good man defender, and a defensive asset, but Chicago's defensive success is owed more to the supporting cast.  Deng, Brewer, Noah, Bogans: these were Chicago's defensive studs.
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Offline BballTim

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 When Rondo was a rookie the Celts defense was 8.3 points better with him on the court and he led the league in steal%. His numbers in that rookie year (from 82games) look to be somewhat better than Rose's rookie year on a playoff team.


Rondo's rookie DWS: 2.6 (career low)

Rose's rookie DWS: 1.5 (career low)

I'm not debating that Rondo is not a better defender than Derrick Rose, what I'm saying is that both of them have good to great defensive numbers, and they owe a low of that because they have good to great defensive backstops behind them.

The tied for the lead in defensive win shares, and Rondo led all point guards with his DRtg.

  First of all, having a career low (for your first 4-5 seasons) in DWS in your rookie year Is far more common than you seem to think.

Then I've miscommunicated. I think it is extremely common. They're rookies, they're supposed to be bad.


  Both were worse as rookies than they are now but Rondo showed clear signs that he was a very good defender. Rose, not as much.


  Edit: Again, figuring in minutes Rose got about 73% fewer DWS in about 64% more minutes than Rondo. On a minute-minute basis Rondo accumulated almost 3x the DWS as Rose while Rondo was playing for a lottery team.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2011, 04:03:57 PM by BballTim »

Offline action781

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This discussion seems all over the place, with inappropriate uses of statistics everywhere, and I don't even know what to respond to...

But to answer the OP, no, I don't think so at all.

I think it's pretty clear without getting into fancy stats like DWS, etc.  Let's just that the two players' defense are roughly equal (even though I think one is better) without getting into a statistical debate over it and look at the "pg stats" over the playoffs

Rose: 27.1 ppg, 7.7 apg, 3.7 TOpg
Rondo:  14 ppg, 9.6 apg, 3.7 TOpg

I feel that Rose just dominated him statistically offensively and Rose probably would have had more assists if the teammates he were passing to were as good at shooting as Rondo's teammates.  Rose had equal TOs while playing more minutes and being in control of the ball more, which tells me that he protected the ball better.

I'll just agree that their defense is "roughly equal" and anybody who is going to argue that is being really obnoxious.

Then it comes down to wins.  They both got crushed by Miami 4-1.  Rondo's celtics had the same series outcome as Rose's Bulls did, but Rondo had a far better supporting cast. 

I think these are pretty inarguable points that lead me to logically conclude that Rondo is definitely not on Rose's level.
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