Secret Rondo Trade Conspiracy Thread...

[BballTim]

I was typing up a response to this thread back when it was on page 2 or 3. It ended up getting out of hand, because I didn't really know what I was trying to prove. In any case, concerning Rondo's performance this year, I wrote this rather in-depth article:

http://www.celticsblog.com/2011/5/13/2169412/did-rondo-cost-us-number-18

  Just curious, but when you were comparing his numbers in the playoffs to last year's numbers, no mention of the fact that he played 30% or so if his minutes this year with one useable arm?
 

[Celtics18]

Rondo's going to need good players around him to build a contender, but so is Chris Paul.  We've seen recently that superstars don't win titles by themselves anymore in this league.

No single player can win without support, not LeBron or even Bill Russel but take a look at what Chicago is doing with Rose and not a whole lot else (no one I would call elite).

I think Chris Paul is better than Rose or at worst equal.  So if you put Chris Paul on the Celtics, his supporting cast would be plenty.

I happen to think a team with a healthy Rondo and a supporting cast of Deng, Boozer, Noah, et al. with coach Thibs would do absolutely as well as this year's Bulls. 

[KungPoweChicken]

There's only one problem though: If the Celtics get Chris Paul, he would have to lose the name CP3.

[KungPoweChicken]

Rondo's going to need good players around him to build a contender, but so is Chris Paul.  We've seen recently that superstars don't win titles by themselves anymore in this league.

No single player can win without support, not LeBron or even Bill Russel but take a look at what Chicago is doing with Rose and not a whole lot else (no one I would call elite).

I think Chris Paul is better than Rose or at worst equal.  So if you put Chris Paul on the Celtics, his supporting cast would be plenty.

I happen to think a team with a healthy Rondo and a supporting cast of Deng, Boozer, Noah, et al. with coach Thibs would do absolutely as well as this year's Bulls. 

That team sounds like an 8th seed if you're lucky, most likely a lottery team.

[BballTim]

Rondo's going to need good players around him to build a contender, but so is Chris Paul.  We've seen recently that superstars don't win titles by themselves anymore in this league.

No single player can win without support, not LeBron or even Bill Russel but take a look at what Chicago is doing with Rose and not a whole lot else (no one I would call elite).

I think Chris Paul is better than Rose or at worst equal.  So if you put Chris Paul on the Celtics, his supporting cast would be plenty.

I happen to think a team with a healthy Rondo and a supporting cast of Deng, Boozer, Noah, et al. with coach Thibs would do absolutely as well as this year's Bulls. 

  I would agree.

[Roy H.]

Rondo's going to need good players around him to build a contender, but so is Chris Paul.  We've seen recently that superstars don't win titles by themselves anymore in this league.

No single player can win without support, not LeBron or even Bill Russel but take a look at what Chicago is doing with Rose and not a whole lot else (no one I would call elite).

I think Chris Paul is better than Rose or at worst equal.  So if you put Chris Paul on the Celtics, his supporting cast would be plenty.

I happen to think a team with a healthy Rondo and a supporting cast of Deng, Boozer, Noah, et al. with coach Thibs would do absolutely as well as this year's Bulls. 

That team sounds like an 8th seed if you're lucky, most likely a lottery team.

Nah, I think that team is a solid playoff team.  Somewhere between the 3 and 5 seed in the East, I'd say.

[Celtics18]

Probably fair to say, but I'd still give up Rondo for Paul even without the guarantee he would be back because frankly, I think the team needs to go all in next year.  Also, I don't believe Rondo and an old Pierce are going to draw free agents in 2012 and with both of them on the team, I don't think we would be bad enough to really get the high level lottery pick in 2012-2013 that could net us a franchise player (without getting really lucky in the lottery), so I'd rather just start over (if Paul leaves, I think Pierce may just retire, leaving the team a lot of space and it will be awful leading to the high picks you need to really build a contending team).

I think I agree with this.  It's a gamble, but a calculated one.   The good that could come out of getting CP3 (another championship, a legitimate shot at Dwight Howard) is worth the risk of losing Rondo for nothing.

Where's the risk of of losing Rondo for nothing?  Do you mean in 2015?

I meant if we trade Rondo for Chris Paul.  If Paul then decides to walk, we've essentially lost Rondo for a one year rental.

Exactly.  But, we already have Rondo locked up for four years at 11.5 per.  Even if we were to trade Rondo for Paul and he decided to re-up with us, Chris Paul would come at a significantly heftier price tag than Rondo.  This would actually limit our ability to build around him and attract other quality players as opposed to the other way around.

I don't think that extra $6 million or so is going to be that much of a factor.  Right now, with Rondo or CP3, we have enough room to sign one max free agent in 2012, but not two of them.  That being the case, I'd rather have the player who is more likely to get a superstar (Howard) to sign here.  That's Chris Paul.

For the 2012-2013 season right now we are looking at $27,790,345 tied up with the salaries of Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo.  If we keep Pierce and add Chris Paul instead that number goes up to $34,569,802 if Chris Paul signs an extension worth what his current qualifying offer is valued at.  That's a difference of $6,779,457 right there at minimum.  Realistically, Paul will probably be looking for somewhere closer to $20 million range for his next contract rather than the $17.8 in his QO which would make the difference closer to the $10 million range between Rondo and Paul.

That's a pretty significant difference, especially considering the fact that we don't know what the new CBA will hold, but eveyone seems to think it will entail a lower or hard salary cap.

I'm not a guy who's ever been an advocate for the splashiest free agent out there or bust theory of building a team.  I'm not with the all eggs in Dwight Howard's basket mentality.  I think keeping Rondo allows Danny to have a lot of different options for keeping this team competitive and contending for the future.    

[RyNye]

 Just curious, but when you were comparing his numbers in the playoffs to last year's numbers, no mention of the fact that he played 30% or so if his minutes this year with one useable arm?
 

I was debating whether to mention it or not. I didn't because the post was largely a response to the surprisingly large number of people (including in this very thread) who are crying that Rondo needs to be traded. They are assessing his performance without any mention of his injuries (either regular season or playoffs). If they are going to judge his performance while ignoring the context of his health, then why should I bring it up? I didn't want to have to make excuses.

[BballTim]

 Just curious, but when you were comparing his numbers in the playoffs to last year's numbers, no mention of the fact that he played 30% or so if his minutes this year with one useable arm?
 

I was debating whether to mention it or not. I didn't because the post was largely a response to the surprisingly large number of people (including in this very thread) who are crying that Rondo needs to be traded. They are assessing his performance without any mention of his injuries (either regular season or playoffs). If they are going to judge his performance while ignoring the context of his health, then why should I bring it up? I didn't want to have to make excuses.

  I'm not sure I follow this. Are you saying you agree that you shouldn't consider injuries when evaluating a player, or that you shouldn't mention them if others don't?

[celts55]

I'm sorry but I can't believe that there is anyone who watches the NBA who would not trade Rondo for Chris Paul. Paul is one of the top 10 players in the league.
While I think Rondo is one of the better point guards in the league, he's far from the best.
Maybe it was injuries, but he appears to play hard maybe 2 out of 3 games. The other game he seems disinterested.
He's been in the league 4 years, do you really think he's he's going to get much better at foul or jump shooting? Allowing other teams to double team whom ever is hot.
While I don't disagree he's a good defender, again there are too many games when he gives half hearted effort and I have yet to see him really shut down top scoring point guards.
Lastlt, as much as i hate to agree with Mike D'antoni, when you have shooters like Ray, Pierce, KG, etc, it's not that hard to rack up the assists. Especially now when players get assists if the pass the ball, the guy tahts a dribble, than hits a jumper.

I know it sound like I'm knocking the guy, but I'm just trying to give a fair assesment from the way I see it. He's a nice player, better than a lot, but not one of the best.

[Marcus13]

Im split on this.  Im worried about whats going to happen to his game when the Big Three are gone and his value may be at an all-time high right now..

With that said, he is on a very reasonable contract so if his game does hold up, it would be at a bargain price

[vinnie]

Rondo's going to need good players around him to build a contender, but so is Chris Paul.  We've seen recently that superstars don't win titles by themselves anymore in this league.

No single player can win without support, not LeBron or even Bill Russel but take a look at what Chicago is doing with Rose and not a whole lot else (no one I would call elite).

I think Chris Paul is better than Rose or at worst equal.  So if you put Chris Paul on the Celtics, his supporting cast would be plenty.

I happen to think a team with a healthy Rondo and a supporting cast of Deng, Boozer, Noah, et al. with coach Thibs would do absolutely as well as this year's Bulls. 

That team would be a 5-8 seed at best.

[European NBA fan]

I'm sorry but I can't believe that there is anyone who watches the NBA who would not trade Rondo for Chris Paul. Paul is one of the top 10 players in the league.
While I think Rondo is one of the better point guards in the league, he's far from the best.
Maybe it was injuries, but he appears to play hard maybe 2 out of 3 games. The other game he seems disinterested.
He's been in the league 4 years, do you really think he's he's going to get much better at foul or jump shooting? Allowing other teams to double team whom ever is hot.
While I don't disagree he's a good defender, again there are too many games when he gives half hearted effort and I have yet to see him really shut down top scoring point guards.
Lastlt, as much as i hate to agree with Mike D'antoni, when you have shooters like Ray, Pierce, KG, etc, it's not that hard to rack up the assists. Especially now when players get assists if the pass the ball, the guy tahts a dribble, than hits a jumper.

I know it sound like I'm knocking the guy, but I'm just trying to give a fair assesment from the way I see it. He's a nice player, better than a lot, but not one of the best.

The problem is the salary. Not only will Chris Paul look to make nearly twice as much as Rondo in his 2012 contract, you have to double the difference due to luxury tax. While Chris Paul is great, he is not that great. If the C's can afford only one max contract player in 2012, I would rather have any other position than point guard.

[BballTim]

Rondo's going to need good players around him to build a contender, but so is Chris Paul.  We've seen recently that superstars don't win titles by themselves anymore in this league.

No single player can win without support, not LeBron or even Bill Russel but take a look at what Chicago is doing with Rose and not a whole lot else (no one I would call elite).

I think Chris Paul is better than Rose or at worst equal.  So if you put Chris Paul on the Celtics, his supporting cast would be plenty.

I happen to think a team with a healthy Rondo and a supporting cast of Deng, Boozer, Noah, et al. with coach Thibs would do absolutely as well as this year's Bulls. 

That team would be a 5-8 seed at best.

  I don't see why. Better defensively, not much worse offensively. It's worth noting that the Bulls were almost as good with Rose on the bench as on the court because the improvement in defense was fairly close to the dropoff in offense.

[PosImpos]

I'm sorry but I can't believe that there is anyone who watches the NBA who would not trade Rondo for Chris Paul. Paul is one of the top 10 players in the league.
While I think Rondo is one of the better point guards in the league, he's far from the best.
Maybe it was injuries, but he appears to play hard maybe 2 out of 3 games. The other game he seems disinterested.
He's been in the league 4 years, do you really think he's he's going to get much better at foul or jump shooting? Allowing other teams to double team whom ever is hot.
While I don't disagree he's a good defender, again there are too many games when he gives half hearted effort and I have yet to see him really shut down top scoring point guards.
Lastlt, as much as i hate to agree with Mike D'antoni, when you have shooters like Ray, Pierce, KG, etc, it's not that hard to rack up the assists. Especially now when players get assists if the pass the ball, the guy tahts a dribble, than hits a jumper.

I know it sound like I'm knocking the guy, but I'm just trying to give a fair assesment from the way I see it. He's a nice player, better than a lot, but not one of the best.

The problem is the salary. Not only will Chris Paul look to make nearly twice as much as Rondo in his 2012 contract, you have to double the difference due to luxury tax. While Chris Paul is great, he is not that great. If the C's can afford only one max contract player in 2012, I would rather have any other position than point guard.

And which max free agent, top 10 NBA player do the Celtics have a shot at signing?  Realistically?

Nobody.

Only way it's gonna happen is through a trade.  I think a trade for CP3 is possible.  Not so much Dwight Howard or Deron Williams.  I don't think there are any other names in 2012 worthy of a max contract.  I don't even know who is coming up after that in 2013, 2014 etc.