Posting for a friend, who is a college basketball coach:
My starters for tonight and their initial assignments + my target # of minutes:
Rondo --> Bibby (20-25 min)
West --> Wade (30-35 min)
Pierce --> James (40 min)
Green --> Bosh (30-35 min)
KG --> Anthony (30-35 min)
Key Bench Reserves:
J. O'Neal (20 min)
R. Allen (30 min)
G. Davis (10-15 min)
Finishing unit (depending on production and foul trouble):
West, Allen, Pierce, Green, KG
Providing that J. Green defends and rebounds (Big IF), this might be our best defensive and offensive unit. I would plan on finishing the game with Ray Allen on the court in place of Rondo in the last 7 minutes of the 1st half and last 7 min of the game. I love Rondo, but he is hurting halfcourt offensive execution down the stretch. R. Allen has not been getting quality shots off, but more importantly, his effort on the defensive rebounding (I have watched this closely) has been abysmal. Taking a page out of the Coach Pop Spurs playbook with the Spurs, you extend the life of an aging big 3 by making one the 6th man (see J. Terry and Manu G.) and then move a younger wing like R. Jefferson (Jeff Green) into the starting lineup. Ideally, the Celtics will do this next season and move one of the big 3 to a bench role, but we don't have that luxury of playing an entire reg. season to get used to it. We need athletes in the starting lineup NOW, and we need scoring punch off the bench NOW to win. Conversely, the Heat won't have a whole season to scout the new lineup. I know Doc is loyal to the veterans, but the Perk trade was a clear signal for him to quit using the old tired line that we never lost a playoff series when our starting 5 was intact. We picked up Delonte and made the Jeff Green signing so we could be versatile and play small. So far in this Series, we have only stuck our toe in the water. Spoelstra has made the biggest adjustment in the series moving Anthony to the starting lineup. Big Z will play less and less and maybe none at all if Haslem plays. We have not made a quality adjustment as Doc has juggled Jermaine, Baby, and Green in the finishing lineup. Doc tried Baby in the finishing lineup once more to close the 2nd quarter of game 4, and we paid for that decision by not holding and extending our lead going into halftime. Davis is not rebounding (4pts, 0 rebs in game 4) and taking charges this series, so he simply cannot be trusted to play that many crucial minutes. The 4th quarter was an excellent example of the Rondo problem. He cannot play 38 min as he did last night since his injury is clearly limiting his ability to push the ball in transition off a Miami make or miss which we need to do in order to get easy, early offense (see the two 3pt shots we made in a row late in the 4th). And, the arm is hindering him from delivering his usual on time, on target passes. Playing off of Rondo and clogging the lane is hurting us more against the Heat than this strategy normally does. Clearly, the weakest part of the Miami team is their supporting cast. Hopefully, with Allen, JO, and Big Baby, we have more scoring punch off the bench than they do even if two of those three players are over 30 yrs old. If the gamble pays off, Ray will get more open looks coming off the bench and maybe get heated up quicker. Plus, dare I say this, but by going small with West and Green, the Celtics actually have more post-up options than they do with playing the two O'Neals or Big Baby. Green and West both have excellent post-up games for their size, and they have tremendous 3pt shooting as well. With the lineup change, I would probably also abandon the strategy of getting KG 20 FG attempts if they haven't done so already. I would advocate for 20-25 3pt attempts tonight off of great ball movement, early transition/secondary break offense, and penetrate and kick plays. Green has to play 30+ minutes the rest of this Series, and if he responds to the starting role and the extra minutes like I hope he will, he should play 40+ minutes. You cannot let your young weapons sit on the bench and go down while stubbornly playing the 35+ year old crowd significant minutes. The Heat's youth and athleticism demands a serious counter-move by Doc, and when you are down 3-1, it is a great time to try.