My thoughts on the Celtics and their bench in game 1 (Glen Davis Rant)

[fairweatherfan]

The reason why he's taking too much flack is that the rest of the team exploits his offensive versatility to bail themselves out all the time. In fact, in percentage terms, Davis is taking substantially more shots in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock than anyone else on the Celtics (close to 25% of his total shots), and it's no surprise that he his shooting percentage for this segment (~.350) makes him look bad.

This is an interesting stat - what's your source?  I saw about 3 shots from Baby in Game 1 that were from getting tossed the ball with little time on the clock, but I didn't realize it was this consistent.

[kozlodoev]

The reason why he's taking too much flack is that the rest of the team exploits his offensive versatility to bail themselves out all the time. In fact, in percentage terms, Davis is taking substantially more shots in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock than anyone else on the Celtics (close to 25% of his total shots), and it's no surprise that he his shooting percentage for this segment (~.350) makes him look bad.

This is an interesting stat - what's your source?  I saw about 3 shots from Baby in Game 1 that were from getting tossed the ball with little time on the clock, but I didn't realize it was this consistent.

82games.com: http://www.82games.com/1011/1011BOS.HTM

I've been suspecting this for a long time, since it appeared to establish itself as a pattern lately, especially with a unit of 5 bench players -- pass it around for 20 seconds, get nothing, toss it to Baby who's the "good pig" in the lineup and will always find a way to get a shot off, maybe even make it occasionally.

I don't think it's fair to Davis, and I think he's doing a very good job of playing hard and trying to help the team to the best of his abilities.

To put things in perspective, Davis is taking 24% of his shots in the 21+ segment of the clock. For comparison, the "big 4", Green, and Shaq are somewhere in the 13-18% range.

[RAcker]

The reason why he's taking too much flack is that the rest of the team exploits his offensive versatility to bail themselves out all the time. In fact, in percentage terms, Davis is taking substantially more shots in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock than anyone else on the Celtics (close to 25% of his total shots), and it's no surprise that he his shooting percentage for this segment (~.350) makes him look bad.

This is an interesting stat - what's your source?  I saw about 3 shots from Baby in Game 1 that were from getting tossed the ball with little time on the clock, but I didn't realize it was this consistent.

82games.com: http://www.82games.com/1011/1011BOS.HTM

I've been suspecting this for a long time, since it appeared to establish itself as a pattern lately, especially with a unit of 5 bench players -- pass it around for 20 seconds, get nothing, toss it to Baby who's the "good pig" in the lineup and will always find a way to get a shot off, maybe even make it occasionally.

I don't think it's fair to Davis, and I think he's doing a very good job of playing hard and trying to help the team to the best of his abilities.

To put things in perspective, Davis is taking 24% of his shots in the 21+ segment of the clock. For comparison, the "big 4" are somewhere in the 13-18% range.

TP for this.

[EJPLAYA]

BBD is taking those shots later on for two main reasons. One, is that if he is on the block he thinks he is Barkley and dribbles the ball for 5-6 more seconds before fading away. Not a great shot. Two is when the big three who get double teamed work the ball around the perimeter will get it to the open man. BBD's man has smartly left him to guard an actual threat to score, and he is wide open. BBD just can't knock down that shot. If he could, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Let's get Jeff Green in there who if they leave will knock it down, or if they don't leave will get the other guys a better shot.

I don't think it's too much to ask to want a player out there who can contribute on the offensive end at a reasonable level. 11 shots to get 12 points isn't a good thing.

[RJ87]

Ya know, I try to be positive around these parts but it's gotta be said: Glen Davis is just... not very good.

Don't get me wrong, he's got a great amount of hustle and can be a terrific intangibles guy when he buys into the system. But over the second half of the season, it's like Glen's suddenly remembered that he's in a contract year and gone into chucker mode. It's amazing how much the ball movement comes to a screeching halt when it's passed to him. Yes, sometimes he has good looks, but more often than not our team would benefit from the extra pass. And isn't that what our offense is built around? The willingness to always make the extra pass?

I've been a BBD supporter in the past, but I've really become disillusioned with his play over recent months. I do think it's time for the C's to move on.

[kozlodoev]

BBD is taking those shots later on for two main reasons. One, is that if he is on the block he thinks he is Barkley and dribbles the ball for 5-6 more seconds before fading away. Not a great shot. Two is when the big three who get double teamed work the ball around the perimeter will get it to the open man. BBD's man has smartly left him to guard an actual threat to score, and he is wide open. BBD just can't knock down that shot. If he could, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Let's get Jeff Green in there who if they leave will knock it down, or if they don't leave will get the other guys a better shot.

I don't think it's too much to ask to want a player out there who can contribute on the offensive end at a reasonable level. 11 shots to get 12 points isn't a good thing.

(1) 60% of those shots are assisted. You can't get an assisted shot if you dribble for 5 seconds. As a matter of fact, 70% of Davis' shots are assisted, so the whole "Davis dribbles too much and takes bad shots" argument is pretty much dead on arrival.

(2) It's interesting how he can knock down all sorts of shots for the other 20 seconds of the shot clock (FG% around .480, by my back-of-the-envelope calculations).

As for why we're having this discussion... let's put it this way, many on this blog were ready to declare Krstic the second coming of Kevin Love. Not all fans have the propensity for in-depth analysis, and this is fine -- as long as they have an open mind for the facts (which, sadly, few seem to do -- including myself on occasions).

[dlpin]

The reason why he's taking too much flack is that the rest of the team exploits his offensive versatility to bail themselves out all the time. In fact, in percentage terms, Davis is taking substantially more shots in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock than anyone else on the Celtics (close to 25% of his total shots), and it's no surprise that he his shooting percentage for this segment (~.350) makes him look bad.

This is an interesting stat - what's your source?  I saw about 3 shots from Baby in Game 1 that were from getting tossed the ball with little time on the clock, but I didn't realize it was this consistent.

82games.com: http://www.82games.com/1011/1011BOS.HTM

I've been suspecting this for a long time, since it appeared to establish itself as a pattern lately, especially with a unit of 5 bench players -- pass it around for 20 seconds, get nothing, toss it to Baby who's the "good pig" in the lineup and will always find a way to get a shot off, maybe even make it occasionally.

I don't think it's fair to Davis, and I think he's doing a very good job of playing hard and trying to help the team to the best of his abilities.

To put things in perspective, Davis is taking 24% of his shots in the 21+ segment of the clock. For comparison, the "big 4", Green, and Shaq are somewhere in the 13-18% range.

82games.com also shows that the shots that Davis takes in the last seconds of the shot clock are also his least "assisted" shots. While over 70% of his shots in the first 20 seconds are "assisted," only 60% of those in the last 4 are. This means that the scenario you described, where he gets the ball late in the clock and has to put up a bad shot, is less common than you say.

[dlpin]

BBD is taking those shots later on for two main reasons. One, is that if he is on the block he thinks he is Barkley and dribbles the ball for 5-6 more seconds before fading away. Not a great shot. Two is when the big three who get double teamed work the ball around the perimeter will get it to the open man. BBD's man has smartly left him to guard an actual threat to score, and he is wide open. BBD just can't knock down that shot. If he could, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Let's get Jeff Green in there who if they leave will knock it down, or if they don't leave will get the other guys a better shot.

I don't think it's too much to ask to want a player out there who can contribute on the offensive end at a reasonable level. 11 shots to get 12 points isn't a good thing.

(1) 60% of those shots are assisted. You can't get an assisted shot if you dribble for 5 seconds. As a matter of fact, 70% of Davis' shots are assisted, so the whole "Davis dribbles too much and takes bad shots" argument is pretty much dead on arrival.

(2) It's interesting how he can knock down all sorts of shots for the other 20 seconds of the shot clock (FG% around .480, by my back-of-the-envelope calculations).

As for why we're having this discussion... let's put it this way, many on this blog were ready to declare Krstic the second coming of Kevin Love. Not all fans have the propensity for in-depth analysis, and this is fine -- as long as they have an open mind for the facts (which, sadly, few seem to do -- including myself on occasions).

70% and 60%, by big men standards, are actually quite low.
That means that he is dead last among the celtics big men in "assisted" shots, behind Garnett by a big difference (79% vs 70%). That means that, out of all our big men, Davis is certainly the one who dribbles around the most. Much more than Garnett, who is a much better ball handler and shooter than he is.

By comparison, even with all the ISO plays Pierce runs, he is still assisted on 55% of all his shots.

[kozlodoev]

Garnett is also 3 inches taller and can get a shot over the back of the defender at almost any point in time.

I don't understand people sometimes. They bash Davis when he settles for jump shots. Then they bash him when his assisted shot percentage is too low (meaning he's driving to the basket rather than settling for jump shots).

[dlpin]

82games.com also shows that the shots that Davis takes in the last seconds of the shot clock are also his least "assisted" shots. While over 70% of his shots in the first 20 seconds are "assisted," only 60% of those in the last 4 are. This means that the scenario you described, where he gets the ball late in the clock and has to put up a bad shot, is less common than you say.

60% of assisted shots in the last 4 seconds is the highest percentage on the team among the regular rotation players.

No, it is not. Garnett has 70% in the last 4 seconds. Shaq has 86%. Kristic has 73%. JO has 100%. Green has 63%.

Once again, he is the worst big man in that regard.

[kozlodoev]

82games.com also shows that the shots that Davis takes in the last seconds of the shot clock are also his least "assisted" shots. While over 70% of his shots in the first 20 seconds are "assisted," only 60% of those in the last 4 are. This means that the scenario you described, where he gets the ball late in the clock and has to put up a bad shot, is less common than you say.

60% of assisted shots in the last 4 seconds is the highest percentage on the team among the regular rotation players.

No, it is not. Garnett has 70% in the last 4 seconds. Shaq has 86%. Kristic has 73%. JO has 100%. Green has 63%.

Once again, he is the worst big man in that regard.

I know, was looking at the wrong column (which is why that post is gone).

[Yogi]

82games.com also shows that the shots that Davis takes in the last seconds of the shot clock are also his least "assisted" shots. While over 70% of his shots in the first 20 seconds are "assisted," only 60% of those in the last 4 are. This means that the scenario you described, where he gets the ball late in the clock and has to put up a bad shot, is less common than you say.

60% of assisted shots in the last 4 seconds is the highest percentage on the team among the regular rotation players.

No, it is not. Garnett has 70% in the last 4 seconds. Shaq has 86%. Kristic has 73%. JO has 100%. Green has 63%.

Once again, he is the worst big man in that regard.

   As he should be, since he's the shortest of all those guys and he's coming off the bench.  Davis is also the bail out guy when he plays with the bench and they screw up an offensive set.  If you are comparing Baby's numbers to Shaq, KG, and JO then the problem lies in your expectations.  (Green is usually defended by small-forwards) 

[dlpin]

   As he should be, since he's the shortest of all those guys and he's coming off the bench.  Davis is also the bail out guy when he plays with the bench and they screw up an offensive set.  If you are comparing Baby's numbers to Shaq, KG, and JO then the problem lies in your expectations.  (Green is usually defended by small-forwards) 

Of all the players to take at least 3 shots from 16.23 feet, Davis is bottom five in the league in fg%. That including everyone, even guards.

The data supports the assertion that BBD dribbles around too much, and the data supports the assertion that BBD has terrible shot selection. If 4.6 out of 10.3 shots are from 16-23 feet, it means that the fact that he takes 23% of his shots in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock do not explain his terrible shooting from that range.


In any case, isn't that even more argument in favor of playing Green more at the 4? If Davis' height forces him to play further away from the rim, might as well go with someone of the same height and more efficient.

[dlpin]

Garnett is also 3 inches taller and can get a shot over the back of the defender at almost any point in time.

I don't understand people sometimes. They bash Davis when he settles for jump shots. Then they bash him when his assisted shot percentage is too low (meaning he's driving to the basket rather than settling for jump shots).

Unassisted does not mean he is driving to the basket. In fact, unassisted can just as well mean exactly the reason why people are complaining about him: dribbling around too much and then settling for a bad shot.

5.9 out of 10.3 shots he takes are from beyond 10 feet.

In other words, late shot clock shots (24% of his shots) and drives to the basket (3.1 shot attempts at the rim, out of 10.3) cannot explain why he shoots so much and hits so few long 2s.

[kozlodoev]

Garnett is also 3 inches taller and can get a shot over the back of the defender at almost any point in time.

I don't understand people sometimes. They bash Davis when he settles for jump shots. Then they bash him when his assisted shot percentage is too low (meaning he's driving to the basket rather than settling for jump shots).

Unassisted does not mean he is driving to the basket. In fact, unassisted can just as well mean exactly the reason why people are complaining about him: dribbling around too much and then settling for a bad shot.

5.9 out of 10.3 shots he takes are from beyond 10 feet.

In other words, late shot clock shots (24% of his shots) and drives to the basket (3.1 shot attempts at the rim, out of 10.3) cannot explain why he shoots so much and hits so few long 2s.

The 3.1 shots at the rim definitely cannot explain the 5.9 shots from beyond 10 feet, given that they represent two mutually exclusive sets.

In any case, the only thing I tried to present here is the fact that his shooting percentage suffers because he takes more shots toward the end of the shot clock than anyone else on our team. This fact is pretty much beyond dispute.

Given that I first observed that the team tends to treat Davis as a "bailout pig" with regularity while watching games, I find it refreshing that the facts agree with my unscientific observation. Therefore, I am inclined to conclude that Davis gets a lot of undeserved flack for what really constitutes poor offensive execution by the entire team (including Davis).

We wouldn't be having this discussion, if Davis was shooting closer to the .480 average he has in the first 20 seconds of the clock. But he doesn't, and the problem is not that he likes to chuck the ball so much.

He's obviously still liable for criticism for being part of a unit that has difficulties executing offensively, but a lot of the criticism he gets lately is misguided.