With the benefit of hindsight, do you think Danny regrets the Perk trade?

[GreenFaith1819]

Roy - let me make some things clear.

When I agreed with homericepisode, I wasn't doing it to call your thread "foolish."

When I agreed with his post, I did it with the mindset that to me, indeed it appears as if when something bad happens (like Shaq going down tonight), someone starts a thread like this, and it happen to be you tonight.

I just remember the threads on here where you roundly criticized Nenad, and I agreed with homericepisode to that degree - that this thread appeared to be another veiled attempt to say "I told you so."

If you took my response to his post as someone calling your post foolish, then to that end I apologize.

But I stand with the rest of my posts. I'm just getting tired of the Nenad/JG criticisms.

I hope that I've been clear.

[jdz101]

Kendrick Perkins isnt a gamechanger.

Shaq is.

I'd rather gamble on shaq than rely on perk.

A young Shaq is a game changer. A 39 year old, fat Shaq isn't.
And isn't better then Perk really.

Nah....he really is.

[LooseCannon]

Ainge's strengths as a general manager are that he is not risk-averse and that he thinks long-term and not just for the current season.  I think he does not regret the trade in hindsight because he is the sort of person who believes that hindsight is a poor way to evaluate decision making.  Rajon Rondo passing to Ray Allen for a wide-open three is a good decision.  Big Baby launching a three with 15 seconds on the shot clock is a bad decision.  If the shot is missed in the first scenario and made in the second scenario, you would be a horrible evaluator if you decided that, in hindsight, Rondo should not have made that pass and Davis should have taken that shot.

If Ainge regrets the trade and, as a result, becomes more cautious, that would turn him into a worse GM.

[Eja117]

Just my take - You have every reason to have an opinion on the trade, but I think that you should consider that as maybe the most recognized poster here on the blog - to take such a hard stance against The Trade can carry a lot of weight around here.

Why is this a bad thing?

He's not even saying it was a bad trade at the time. That's why the thread is titled "With the benefit of hindsight...."

He's not saying he had foresight and knew how many injuries we'd have while Perk played great.

[Onslaught]

Kendrick Perkins isnt a gamechanger.

Shaq is.

I'd rather gamble on shaq than rely on perk.

A young Shaq is a game changer. A 39 year old, fat Shaq isn't.
And isn't better then Perk really.

Nah....he really is.

Nah..... he really isn't.

Oh, and he's hurt. Again.

[Eja117]

One thing I am absolutely not understanding is this mindset that we can't really evaluate this trade yet.  We have to wait or something until some magical future date.

This is like saying when Robert E Lee saw his troops being slaughtered in Picket's Charge it would have been a huge mistake to say "Woah.  Pull them back".   Some other general should have said to him "No wait. It's way too early to evaluate this. Let's see how this plays out."

How long do we have to wait till we can say this was a bad trade?  

Even if they win the ring I can still say I think they would have won it anyway with Perk.  

You can always evaluate the trade at any time from where you stand and reevaluate it later. That's what Roy is saying. With the benefit of hindsight.

He's saying "Knowing what you know now....that all these guys would get hurt, JG would play awful, and Perk would play great...do you still do it?"

Some will say yes and some will say no.

I have to admit I find amazing how dug in people got on this trade so fast.

[Kane3387]

Just my take - You have every reason to have an opinion on the trade, but I think that you should consider that as maybe the most recognized poster here on the blog - to take such a hard stance against The Trade can carry a lot of weight around here.

Why is this a bad thing?

He's not even saying it was a bad trade at the time. That's why the thread is titled "With the benefit of hindsight...."

He's not saying he had foresight and knew how many injuries we'd have while Perk played great.

Perk hasn't played great.. He had six points and six boards in a blowout loss to portland last night... Just because OKC is winning is not as simple as Perk plays and we win. There is more to it then that. The acquisition of Perk had a domino effect on a lot of things taking place on the Thunder roster such as roles being made clear.

This topic while interesting is premature. I agree it has become a pro-trade vs anti-trade debate, but what do you expect when the playoffs haven't even started and teams can't truly game plan for opponents to best take advantage of the match ups like in a playoff series?

[ScoobyDoo]

I don't think he regrets it - mainly because there were more things to consider than just winning "right now". A few things that resonate for me about this trade:

1. There wa sno guarantee Perkins would stay healthy either. Even if he did stay healthy, there was no guarantee that that would mean we win #18 anyway...and pinning your championship hopes on an unathletic center coming off "major" reconstructive knee surgery isn't the best bet.

2. The fact of the matter is, we've taken a slide since our two "tough guys" in the middle went down. Jermaine is back, let's hope it's a minor set back for Shaq. If those two can give us 30-35 solid minutes a night between them - we'll most likely raise #18 this year.

But here's where the real motivation behind the trade comes - at least from my perspective - you have to ask yourself...

3. Does Kendrick Perkins fit in with the next team that Ainge will build around Rondo. That team will be a fast breaking, showtime type, major run and gun team. I'm not saying they won't play D, they will. But they are going to flying up and down the court. That is not a good fit for Rondo and for a fast break team.

4. Jeff Green is a good fit for that and that is in large part, why Ainge traded for him. Jeff Green fits in much better than Kendrick Perkins on the next team that Ainge "has officially already started building" with that trade.

5. Now, he made that trade and got a nice piece for the next team. BUT, he also saw that when Shaq and Jo were playing, the Celts were every bit as dominating as with perkins, if not more.

6. He also gets Nenad in the trade. No superstar - but not a bad 2nd or 3rd string center who gets up and down the floor better than Perkins. Green can get Pierce some rest, which is just as critical as getting oru big men back.

7. Let's look at a possible "next generation" team for the Celtics, built around Rondo.

Rondo / JGreen / DWest / Bradley / Nenad / Baby

That is not a bad Nucleus to build around. I don't think Ainge sees Green as a franchise player. I think he sees him as a 3rd or 4th option player. Ainge will be looking to add his next major superstar through free agency.

What if we could add Dwight Howard and maybe some other max free agent when KG and Ray are gone? We are basicallly re-built and Jeff green is a great complimentary piece.

No, I don't think Ainge regrets the trade. I think if anything, he might regrest letting Erden go for Murphy...Erden wouldn've been a nice young piece at center.

Finally, given just decent luck with health, we'd have Shaq, Jo, Krstic, and just as good a chance at a title, plus Green for the future...

    

[Kane3387]

One thing I am absolutely not understanding is this mindset that we can't really evaluate this trade yet.  We have to wait or something until some magical future date.

This is like saying when Robert E Lee saw his troops being slaughtered in Picket's Charge it would have been a huge mistake to say "Woah.  Pull them back".   Some other general should have said to him "No wait. It's way too early to evaluate this. Let's see how this plays out."

How long do we have to wait till we can say this was a bad trade?  

Even if they win the ring I can still say I think they would have won it anyway with Perk.  

You can always evaluate the trade at any time from where you stand and reevaluate it later. That's what Roy is saying. With the benefit of hindsight.

He's saying "Knowing what you know now....that all these guys would get hurt, JG would play awful, and Perk would play great...do you still do it?"

Some will say yes and some will say no.

I have to admit I find amazing how dug in people got on this trade so fast.

Well based on the way we ended the regular season last year. I would have to say when we are eliminated from the playoffs... if we are. 

[winsomme]

I think the problem here is that people act like there wasn't any risk of injury at all with Perkins. You can blame Danny for relying on a 39 years old center, although he did see him workout well during his recovery, but if you do, then you can't say "well he should have kept Perk because there was less risks of him getting injured!". Perk got hurt just before the deadline on his other knee and there were legitimate concerns about his health long term and for this season alone.

To me it was even more risky to say "well I'm gambling on Perk and JO's health and we're going in the playoffs without a reliable backup 3 anyway" than to roll the dice with the O'Neal brothers + Krstic and Green.

My point is, there was a gamble to take at that time, and I think Danny made the right one. Perk staying obviously looked better because of familiarity and stuff like that but to me the trade made more sense (and I'm talking this season only).

backup SFs are much easier to find than starting centers. They also are a lot less important to winning.

the gamble was Perk, Shaq, JO for center and alternative backup wing to Shaq, JO, Nenad for center and Green as the backup wing.

given the importance of the center position in our system, the greater gamble was to deplete the center position for essentially a bench player (given the amount of time we can even put Green in the game).

Our depth at center was a huge advantage for us in all our key matchups (MIA, ORL, CHI, LAL, SAS) and the trade washed that away.

could still work out, but Shaq needs to get back on the floor for that to happen.

[Tai]

Roy, maybe if you were a little more ingenuous with this topic, IMO, you may not have had people taking shots at you in this topic.

I personally was a little annoyed that you went through the trouble of making a new topic just to repeat what you've been saying in other topics ever since the trade started, and pass it off as something other than that. . . .

Anyways, I get it. You never liked this trade, and you wanna go out of your way to let everyone know, and chime in whenever you feel your claim has been validated. Fine. At least don't try to guise that so much.

Who are you to question my motives?  Why do you think you know what's inside my head better than me?  I'm getting a tad bit sick of the insults, the insinuations, and the words being put in my mouth.  If you don't like one of the threads I publish, move on.

In case people missed it, Shaq -- the very same Shaquille O'Neal who Danny repeatedly described as being integral to his thinking when he made the trade -- went down tonight with yet another injury.  He lasted six minutes tonight.  That concerns me, and the thought of going into the playoffs with JO and Krstic as our center rotation scares me even more. 

I assumed that maybe there were some like-minded folks, who even if they liked the trade at first, felt a little uneasy about it now.  Obviously, I was wrong, because this thread has just turned into another pro-trade vs. anti-trade debate.  However, I do think that looking at the trade with the benefit of new information could have been interested if people were willing to move off of their talking points a bit.

I'm more on GreenFaith's boat with this overall. I believe the only "bold" point or "shot" I've taken is calling you disingenuous, if you want to call it that, and I do stand by that. Like GreenFaith, I've also seen many people make topics blaming this or blaming that, especially the trade. I still remember the "Danny killed this team with this trade" or "Thank you Danny Ainge for killing this team" topics. No matter how you want to spin it, this topic definitely falls in line as one of those topics, especially when it comes to claiming that Danny regretted this trade based on you feeling that Perk's health ever became "certain".

Also, I don't believe I put words in your mouth; maybe interpreted how I've seen you post; and I don't believe your posts were foolish.  Even though I don't believe I know you better than you know yourself, I do find it interesting that it appears you think you know Danny better than yourself. I don't think you've said anything that really proves Danny regretted this trade, except for all the reasons you never liked it back then or now.

Like I said, Shaq's injury is only a big deal now, considering the nature of it, cause it's an additional injury on top of what he's already had. Around the trade deadline, we saw the same situation in Perkins, where he had an injury to one knee after just recovering from surgery on the other. Everyone seemed in-confident in Perk at the time. Shaq could very well be ok, and still be able to contribute in the playoffs, and thus we're back to what Danny had anyways. Danny, for all we know, could be thinking that, so I find it hard to believe he could regret the trade at this point.

[Kane3387]

I don't think he regrets it - mainly because there were more things to consider than just winning "right now". A few things that resonate for me about this trade:

1. There wa sno guarantee Perkins would stay healthy either. Even if he did stay healthy, there was no guarantee that that would mean we win #18 anyway...and pinning your championship hopes on an unathletic center coming off "major" reconstructive knee surgery isn't the best bet.

2. The fact of the matter is, we've taken a slide since our two "tough guys" in the middle went down. Jermaine is back, let's hope it's a minor set back for Shaq. If those two can give us 30-35 solid minutes a night between them - we'll most likely raise #18 this year.

But here's where the real motivation behind the trade comes - at least from my perspective - you have to ask yourself...

3. Does Kendrick Perkins fit in with the next team that Ainge will build around Rondo. That team will be a fast breaking, showtime type, major run and gun team. I'm not saying they won't play D, they will. But they are going to flying up and down the court. That is not a good fit for Rondo and for a fast break team.

4. Jeff Green is a good fit for that and that is in large part, why Ainge traded for him. Jeff Green fits in much better than Kendrick Perkins on the next team that Ainge "has officially already started building" with that trade.

5. Now, he made that trade and got a nice piece for the next team. BUT, he also saw that when Shaq and Jo were playing, the Celts were every bit as dominating as with perkins, if not more.

6. He also gets Nenad in the trade. No superstar - but not a bad 2nd or 3rd string center who gets up and down the floor better than Perkins. Green can get Pierce some rest, which is just as critical as getting oru big men back.

7. Let's look at a possible "next generation" team for the Celtics, built around Rondo.

Rondo / JGreen / DWest / Bradley / Nenad / Baby

That is not a bad Nucleus to build around. I don't think Ainge sees Green as a franchise player. I think he sees him as a 3rd or 4th option player. Ainge will be looking to add his next major superstar through free agency.

What if we could add Dwight Howard and maybe some other max free agent when KG and Ray are gone? We are basicallly re-built and Jeff green is a great complimentary piece.

No, I don't think Ainge regrets the trade. I think if anything, he might regrest letting Erden go for Murphy...Erden wouldn've been a nice young piece at center.

Finally, given just decent luck with health, we'd have Shaq, Jo, Krstic, and just as good a chance at a title, plus Green for the future...

    

Nice points. I think DA is looking at how the Pistons created a contender. Detroit didn't have one superstar but 4-5 guys at about 10 mill per year each. A Cap friendly team who played well.

Rondo's contract has set all this up and Greens as a starter is worth 7-9 mill. In a conference where Lebron and Carmelo and even Deng, Iggy, and Granger will be around for the next 6-8 years you need a guy like Green.

[Roy H.]

I'm more on GreenFaith's boat with this overall. I believe the only "bold" point or "shot" I've taken is calling you disingenuous, if you want to call it that, and I do stand by that.

One more time, this time with feeling:  calling members "disingenuous", or whatever other insult you can come up with, is a personal attack.  Those aren't allowed around here.

[vinnie]

If rondo, green, west, nenad, Bradley and baby are the future nucleus of this team, I don't think Danny ainge will have a job

[Eja117]

I'm getting curious.  

Last Januaryish I suggested the Pats should shop Brady.  That turned into a whole "eja suggested we trade Brady for Sanchez" thing.

Let's say the Pats do that next year. Say they're playing very well, maybe Brady is a bit banged up and they trade Brady for a good young QB and a good young player at a position of need. Then they start losing, and looking lost, but still one of the better teams destined for the playoffs. And in the mean time Brady plays pretty well and improves the team he goes to.

Are all of you going to stay positive and not criticize the trade?  Will you say "It's too early to know"?

Will you not be able to make threads suggesting in hindsight maybe it wasn't so good?

Exact.....same....thing



Of course now I'm saying Perk is as good as Brady.   No I'm not.