Krstic is being overrated

[Jon]

If Krstic is being overrated because he's playing with 4 All Stars, we need to ask the question whether anyone who played with the Big Four has been overrated, Perk, BBD, and others included.

He's being overrated because his shots are falling and people overrate scoring/underrate defense and rebounding.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up.

I agree, he's being overrated.  However, I do think that if we're going to admit we overrate Krstic, we also need to admit we overrated Perk. 

And it's not just people undervaluing defense.  If it was, the Celtics wouldn't have kept teams to 91 ppg with Perk out most of the season. 

[dysgenic]

The guy is playing about as good as he is ever going to play for us, and he is still one of the worst rebounding 7 footers I have ever seen.  I don't think we can win with him as our starting center, he is a very limited player.  However, as a 3rd stringer or situational guy he is perfect for this team.

ps- I see him as a slightly below average to average defender.  I'm now sure what everyone else is watching.

[droponov]

If Krstic is being overrated because he's playing with 4 All Stars, we need to ask the question whether anyone who played with the Big Four has been overrated, Perk, BBD, and others included.

He's being overrated because his shots are falling and people overrate scoring/underrate defense and rebounding.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up.

I agree, he's being overrated.  However, I do think that if we're going to admit we overrate Krstic, we also need to admit we overrated Perk. 

Huh? Why? Who are "we"?

And it's not just people undervaluing defense.  If it was, the Celtics wouldn't have kept teams to 91 ppg with Perk out most of the season.  

What? I'm not following this. How is this connected to the question of Krstic being overrated because his shots are falling?

[birdwatcher]

He is what he is folks.  He has never been a dominant rebounder and will never will be.  He brings different things to the table than Perk who was a better defender and rebounder.  But Perk was not a dominant rebounder either, he was servicable and that is it.

It is harder to rebound in the high post.  It's also hard to rebound when your system forces you to get back to be on D.  We really don't put a high priority on boards as a team.  Our priority is on transition defense.

It's about the defensive rebounding, not the offensive glass.

Perkins was the Celtics best rebounder in the last season and this one (and in 08/09 he was second to Powe). This season his TRB% of 19.2% was the 13th highest in the entire league. This isn't serviceable.

I believe those numbers are that high because he only played like 12 games this season. Head to head the last four seasons for each player, Perk avg 7.1 reb & Curly avg 5.4 for a difference of 1.7 rebounds a game. Curly avg about 1.5 pts per game more than perk at 9.5...does that mean Krstic is more than serviceable, too? or does a couple more rebounds a game put perk over the threshold and keeps Nenad mediocre?

These numbers are all arbitrary anyhow. After next season, given both players stay on their new teams, we can look at how they fit into their new systems, ans we'll see how each player benefits from playing with the big 4. Perk may get a chance to come out of his shell in OKC, or fade into a Jamal Magloire abyss. Probably somewhere in between. If he can get healthy, that is.

[CelticG1]

I don't know how Krstic is overrated. Who is overrating him? He scored 17 points last night. Just because he scored 17 and we can point out how well he shot and how effective he was doesn't mean that he is overrated. It's just pointing out that he played well. No one is saying that he is an all-star center. Some people are saying that they think he could be an adequate starting center in the league but is that really overrating him so much where there is no debate? He was a starting center for the Thunder who have been a pretty good team the past couple years. Thats a fact, no matter how you want to slice it.

[Roy H.]

I don't know how Krstic is overrated. Who is overrating him? He scored 17 points last night. Just because he scored 17 and we can point out how well he shot and how effective he was doesn't mean that he is overrated. It's just pointing out that he played well. No one is saying that he is an all-star center. Some people are saying that they think he could be an adequate starting center in the league but is that really overrating him so much where there is no debate? He was a starting center for the Thunder who have been a pretty good team the past couple years. Thats a fact, no matter how you want to slice it.

For instance, those people who say he is clearly better than Perk are overrating him, I think.  If he was clearly better than Perk, I'm doubtful that a competent GM would trade us Jeff Green and a #1 as filler.

Those people who tend to overrate him look at his shooting stats (7-for-8, 17 points) and 1) think that this performance is indicative of his normal productivity, and 2) largely ignore the defensive end, including defensive rebounding.

If I told you "I'll give you a starting center who scores around 8 to 10 points per game, shoots below 50%, is an average-to-below-average defender, and rebounds worse than Paul Pierce", most people wouldn't get all that excited.  However, if that same player has a good night offensively, all of a sudden he is better than Perkins (a center who scores 8 to 10 points per game, shoots well above 50%, is an above-average to well-above-average defender, and has rebounded better than KG each of the last three seasons).

Also, for those who think that Perk had no offensive game, check out some of his performances last year:  Link (click on the points column to filter).  Perk had some stinkers, but he scored 10+ in more than half of our games, as a fifth option.  I'm a bit surprised that people have forgotten Perk's contributions this easily.

[Jon]

If Krstic is being overrated because he's playing with 4 All Stars, we need to ask the question whether anyone who played with the Big Four has been overrated, Perk, BBD, and others included.

He's being overrated because his shots are falling and people overrate scoring/underrate defense and rebounding.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up.

I agree, he's being overrated.  However, I do think that if we're going to admit we overrate Krstic, we also need to admit we overrated Perk. 

Huh? Why? Who are "we"?

And it's not just people undervaluing defense.  If it was, the Celtics wouldn't have kept teams to 91 ppg with Perk out most of the season.  

What? I'm not following this. How is this connected to the question of Krstic being overrated because his shots are falling?

"We" is collective.  I don't necessarily agree with Roy's initial assertion.  However, if we as the CB community are going to entertain the notion that Krstic is being overrated by some, then I think we should also question the same thing about Perk.  

What I mean by this is that it's obviously silly to think that just because Krstic scores 17 points he can be a go to guy.  He clearly got a ton of great looks from playing with 4 All Stars.  

Similarly, we also have to start asking ourselves if we've also been overvaluing Perkins, who greatly benefited from playing with other great defensive players, most notably Kevin Garnett.  And before anyone jumps down my throat for saying that, if that at least isn't partially true (or more than that), why did the Celtics continue to be a top defensive team with him out the first half?  

My point simply is that it's easy to overvalue ANYONE who plays with 4 All Stars.  

[billysan]

I guess for me we traded these things:

Perk, a guy who could D up one on one with any big in the league and hold his own. He has a surgically repaired knee and another with a minor injury and may not be a healthy contributor for the rest of this season. The guy doesnt have much athleticism but is tough as nails. He is at best a 50% free throw shooter and will rarely get you more than 10 points on offense.

For

Krstic, a Euro guy with decent length that has a nice shot and soft touch out to 18-20 feet. He will need help in the paint defensively against the bigger centers/PF in the league on a nightly basis. He will run the floor hard and especially crash the offensive boards. He will rarely get you more than 7 boards and if you are lucky 2 blocks a game. His FT shooting is excellent and he is a decent passer. He is healthy this year and an adequate perimeter defender for a bigman.


Both guys are capable of being starters or excellent backup centers in this league depending on how they are used. Both can be considered savvy veterans that dont make many mistakes and will be good teammates.


To expect Krstic to excell at Perks game defensively is certainly to overrate him. To expect Perk to excell in Krstics role as a shooter/scorer is to overrate him as well. They are very different players with different skill sets. Either way it is unrealistic and unfair to both guys.

[Rondo No Look]

the gap between Kristic's offense and Perk's offense is greater than the gap between the two's defense

[birdwatcher]

I don't know how Krstic is overrated. Who is overrating him? He scored 17 points last night. Just because he scored 17 and we can point out how well he shot and how effective he was doesn't mean that he is overrated. It's just pointing out that he played well. No one is saying that he is an all-star center. Some people are saying that they think he could be an adequate starting center in the league but is that really overrating him so much where there is no debate? He was a starting center for the Thunder who have been a pretty good team the past couple years. Thats a fact, no matter how you want to slice it.

For instance, those people who say he is clearly better than Perk are overrating him, I think.  If he was clearly better than Perk, I'm doubtful that a competent GM would trade us Jeff Green and a #1 as filler.

Presti traded for Perk because he was using one of his best players out of position and had a guy in Ibaka who fit the role better. He also needed a guy who could make an impact in the middle and make a nice defensive tandem with Ibaka. We needed more offense and we got it. And we still have size. Also, would you really put Presti over Ainge in personnel moves? Not to put words in your mouth, but it seems that's what you're implying.

[droponov]

He is what he is folks.  He has never been a dominant rebounder and will never will be.  He brings different things to the table than Perk who was a better defender and rebounder.  But Perk was not a dominant rebounder either, he was servicable and that is it.

It is harder to rebound in the high post.  It's also hard to rebound when your system forces you to get back to be on D.  We really don't put a high priority on boards as a team.  Our priority is on transition defense.

It's about the defensive rebounding, not the offensive glass.

Perkins was the Celtics best rebounder in the last season and this one (and in 08/09 he was second to Powe). This season his TRB% of 19.2% was the 13th highest in the entire league. This isn't serviceable.

I believe those numbers are that high because he only played like 12 games this season. Head to head the last four seasons for each player, Perk avg 7.1 reb & Curly avg 5.4 for a difference of 1.7 rebounds a game. Curly avg about 1.5 pts per game more than perk at 9.5...does that mean Krstic is more than serviceable, too? or does a couple more rebounds a game put perk over the threshold and keeps Nenad mediocre?

These numbers are all arbitrary anyhow. After next season, given both players stay on their new teams, we can look at how they fit into their new systems, ans we'll see how each player benefits from playing with the big 4. Perk may get a chance to come out of his shell in OKC, or fade into a Jamal Magloire abyss. Probably somewhere in between. If he can get healthy, that is.

I prefer to use rebounding rate as a metric, rebounds per game is too noisy, but yeah, that 2 rpg difference is larger than you seem to think.

[rondohondo]

I don't know how Krstic is overrated. Who is overrating him? He scored 17 points last night. Just because he scored 17 and we can point out how well he shot and how effective he was doesn't mean that he is overrated. It's just pointing out that he played well. No one is saying that he is an all-star center. Some people are saying that they think he could be an adequate starting center in the league but is that really overrating him so much where there is no debate? He was a starting center for the Thunder who have been a pretty good team the past couple years. Thats a fact, no matter how you want to slice it.

For instance, those people who say he is clearly better than Perk are overrating him, I think.  If he was clearly better than Perk, I'm doubtful that a competent GM would trade us Jeff Green and a #1 as filler.

OKC wasn't going to tie up money in Jeff Green because they had Durant, so Green wasn't really that valuable to them, especially considering they have Ibaka who is a young, athletic PF and they could move Harden into the starting lineup to make up for the scoring they lose with Green. They would have let him walk if they didn't trade him because they can't afford to tie money up in a player that doesn't fit their roster going forward.(much like the C's and Perk)

It made their team much more balanced on offense and defense , and I think the trade did the same thing for the C's.

I am not say that Kristic is an all-star, but he is much better than Semih, thats who you should be comparing him to, not Perk.
Shaq is going to be the clog in the middle for 20-25 mins a game, they are clearly resting him for the playoffs. Anything JO can give will be a bonus . BBD will also see some time there.

[droponov]

If Krstic is being overrated because he's playing with 4 All Stars, we need to ask the question whether anyone who played with the Big Four has been overrated, Perk, BBD, and others included.

He's being overrated because his shots are falling and people overrate scoring/underrate defense and rebounding.

Yeah, that pretty much sums it up.

I agree, he's being overrated.  However, I do think that if we're going to admit we overrate Krstic, we also need to admit we overrated Perk. 

Huh? Why? Who are "we"?

And it's not just people undervaluing defense.  If it was, the Celtics wouldn't have kept teams to 91 ppg with Perk out most of the season.  

What? I'm not following this. How is this connected to the question of Krstic being overrated because his shots are falling?

"We" is collective.  I don't necessarily agree with Roy's initial assertion.  However, if we as the CB community are going to entertain the notion that Krstic is being overrated by some, then I think we should also question the same thing about Perk.  

What I mean by this is that it's obviously silly to think that just because Krstic scores 17 points he can be a go to guy.  He clearly got a ton of great looks from playing with 4 All Stars.  

Similarly, we also have to start asking ourselves if we've also been overvaluing Perkins, who greatly benefited from playing with other great defensive players, most notably Kevin Garnett.  And before anyone jumps down my throat for saying that, if that at least isn't partially true (or more than that), why did the Celtics continue to be a top defensive team with him out the first half?  

My point simply is that it's easy to overvalue ANYONE who plays with 4 All Stars.  

I couldn't care less about the 4 All-Stars. That's irrelevant. To me Krstic doesn't look any different compared to how he has played in OKC, Moscow or for Serbia.

Krstic is being overrated because his shots are falling. If he was going through a slump, nobody would be calling him found money. He could be playing exactly the same way, doing the same things - it'd took a few jump-shots to bounce the other way and his reputation would be radically different.

I don't understand why Perkins is relevant to this issue, but defensive minded players are generally underrated, not overrated.

[Roy H.]

I guess for me we traded these things:

Perk, a guy who could D up one on one with any big in the league and hold his own. He has a surgically repaired knee and another with a minor injury and may not be a healthy contributor for the rest of this season. The guy doesnt have much athleticism but is tough as nails. He is at best a 50% free throw shooter and will rarely get you more than 10 points on offense.

For

Krstic, a Euro guy with decent length that has a nice shot and soft touch out to 18-20 feet. He will need help in the paint defensively against the bigger centers/PF in the league on a nightly basis. He will run the floor hard and especially crash the offensive boards. He will rarely get you more than 7 boards and if you are lucky 2 blocks a game. His FT shooting is excellent and he is a decent passer. He is healthy this year and an adequate perimeter defender for a bigman.


Both guys are capable of being starters or excellent backup centers in this league depending on how they are used. Both can be considered savvy veterans that dont make many mistakes and will be good teammates.


To expect Krstic to excell at Perks game defensively is certainly to overrate him. To expect Perk to excell in Krstics role as a shooter/scorer is to overrate him as well. They are very different players with different skill sets. Either way it is unrealistic and unfair to both guys.

Perk scored 10+ points in more than 50% of the games he played last year.  In the last *two* seasons, Krstic has scored in double digits in a combined 47 games.  Perk did it 41 times last year alone.

People who say "Perk = defense, Krstic = offense" are underrating Perk's offensive contributions.  He scored more per minute, shot a much higher percentage, averaged twice as many assists, and created more of his own offense than Krstic did. 

Yet, people ignore the above, which is another reason that Krstic is overrated.  Many act as if Perk was the equivalent of a poor man's Ben Wallace on offense.

[Roy H.]

the gap between Kristic's offense and Perk's offense is greater than the gap between the two's defense

I'll just repeat myself:

Perk scored 10+ points in more than 50% of the games he played last year.  In the last *two* seasons, Krstic has scored in double digits in a combined 47 games.  Perk did it 41 times last year alone.

People who say "Perk = defense, Krstic = offense" are underrating Perk's offensive contributions.  He scored more per minute, shot a much higher percentage, averaged twice as many assists, and created more of his own offense than Krstic did.

Yet, people ignore the above, which is another reason that Krstic is overrated.  Many act as if Perk was the equivalent of a poor man's Ben Wallace on offense.